Euro Dollar Rate Forecasts for 2014-2015 - page 2
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EUR/USD Goes From Bad To Worse
Europe is a mess, and in spite of all thepaper mache offering a pretty facade, it’s just going to get messier. From a charting perspective, the big break for the euro took place at the place marked with an arrow.
There’s nothing to suggest this downtrend will reverse.
source
EURUSD is on a way to hell
EURUSD is on a way to hell
Not yet
It will be when Draghi resigns (and he will be forced now - Juncker does what his bosses are telling him, and his bosses are from the same continent as he is)
Goldman Quickens Euro Parity Call to 2016 as ECB Tackles Crisis
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. brought forward its forecast for the euro to fall to parity with the dollar by a year to 2016, joining a minority of strategists predicting a 15 percent drop in the next two years.
Robin Brooks, Goldman’s New York-based chief currency strategist, also cut his six-month forecast to $1.11 from $1.20, betting the European Central Bank will announce government bond buying in two weeks and the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year even as lower oil prices subdue inflation.
The euro’s exchange rate against a basket of trade partners has only fallen 4 percent, even as a flagging economy and falling inflation triggered a 14 percent drop in the single currency against the dollar since the start of 2014. That’s keeping the member states from regaining competitiveness as the region recover from a the debt crisis and a recession in 2013, according to Brooks.
“If you look at real effective exchange rates, it basically hasn’t come down,” Brooks said in a telephone interview. “The kind of exchange rate moves we’ve seen in the past have been around 30 percent. On that basis, there’s a lot of reasons to think this euro move can keep going.”
Goldman’s parity call remains a minority view. ING Groep NV, ABN Amro Bank NV and Citigroup Inc. are the only banks in a Bloomberg survey that agree the exchange rate will fall that low by the end of 2016. The median estimate of 53 analysts was for a drop to $1.15 from $1.1834 as of 11 a.m. in New York.
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In contrast, PNC Financial Services Group forecasts the euro trading at $1.18 in June and $1.19 by year-end.
In contrast, PNC Financial Services Group forecasts the euro trading at $1.18 in June and $1.19 by year-end.
It is always like that : market makers are telling one thing and investors another. For the same reason : expecting liquidity flow
Will be interesting if it actually happens.
We are already at 1.18. Expecting that it will not change at all (or change just 100 pips) this year is not realistic
We are already at 1.18. Expecting that it will not change at all (or change just 100 pips) this year is not realistic
It looks like we are going to have a correction now
It looks like we are going to have a correction now
To soon to tell