USDCAD news - page 34
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USD/CAD forecast for the week of June 27, 2016
The USD/CAD pair fell initially during the course the week but turned right back around to form a positive candle. However, we could not break above the 1.30 level and hold it, so at this point in time it’s not until we break above that level that I would be willing to buy this market. Ultimately, if we can break down below the range for the previous week, we could then drop down and test the lows again at the 1.24 level. One thing we can count on is quite a bit of volatility though.
USD/CAD: Loonie Strengthens on Oil Support
The USD/CAD pair was down 0.33% and traded at C$1.2981 on Wednesday. Earlier in the session, the pair hit an intraday low of C$1.2979, benefitting the loonie.
Oil prices were the primary driver for the commodity-based loonie on Wednesday. Traders were focused on the US crude oil inventories weekly report, which fell for the sixth week in a row.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), commercial crude stockpiles plunged 4.053 million barrels in the period ended June 24, following the 917,000 barrel fall seen in the previous seven days.
In response, oil prices surged, with WTI futures rising 2.72% to $49.15 per barrel, and Brent contract climbing 2.76% to $50.62 per barrel.
Moreover, there were no major macro releases in Canada on Wednesday, which kept the attention on commodity market and data out of the US.
The US price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in May, meeting expectations. On the other hand, American home buyers signed fewer contracts in May, as the pending home sales index dropped 3.7% to 110.8 points, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Canada April GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% expected
Canadian monthly GDP
Canada is one of the few countries to report on GDP every month. This is the first gain after two straight months of declines.
The oil and gas sector contracted 2.4% but that was outweighed by gains in manufacturing, utilities and the public sector. That breakdown is good news if oil can hold around $50. It shows that weakness in energy hasn't spread to the larger economy.
source
USD/CAD forecast for the week of July 4, 2016
The USD/CAD pair fell slightly during the course of the week, but we continue to bounce around the 1.30 level in general. Ultimately, think there is a little bit of support just below, but at this point in time I find it difficult to trade this market from the longer-term perspective, as it is a fairly tight range. With this, I will be trading this pair although the short-term chart, suggesting that we are going to go back and forth and as a result will stick to small moves.
source
BOC Q2 business outlook futures sales 5.00 vs 16.00 prior
Highlights of the Bank of Canada business outlook survey
Loonie Makes Back Losses, Trades Flat as Oil Rebounds
The USD/CAD pair edged up 0.07% and traded at C$1.2991 after hitting an intraday high of C$1.3051.
Oil prices recovered on Tuesday afternoon during the North American session following a major decline amid risk-off sentiment.
The move benefited the commodity-based loonie, with WTI futures advancing 0.84% and trading at $46.99 per barrel and Brent contracts edging up 0.56% to $48.23 per barrel. In contrast, earlier oil losses put significant pressure on the loonie.
From the macro perspective, traders digested the US services PMI for June, which ticked marginally higher to 51.4 points, while the non-manufacturing ISM jumped to 56.5 points in June, from 52.9 scored in the fifth month of the year.
read more
Canada June Ivey manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs 51.2 expected
June manufacturing sentiment survey from the Ivey Business School
This number is rarely a market mover although it seemed to give USD/CAD a bit of a kick lower for a moment.
Jobless Rate in Canada Closes Q2 With Fresh Drop
The unemployment rate in Canada surprisingly edged down in June, after a fresh fall in the previous month, official data from Statistics Canada revealed on Friday.
The Canadian jobless rate dropped to 6.8 in June, while analysts had predicted the gauge to inch up to 7.0% in the reported month from 6.9% booked in May.
The change in the net employment rate in Canada fell by 700 employees in the sixth month of the year.
Since wages and salaries are the main source of household income and a high unemployment rate reduces that income, creating government costs for jobless benefits, a lower reading of the indicator is positive.
The state statistics agency added in the report that the participation rate came in at 65.5%, declining further after the indicator booked in May the lowest level since January 2015.
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USD/CAD forecast for the week of July 11, 2016
The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course of the week but turned right back around to form a positive candle. That being the case, the market continues to meander around the 1.30 level overall. This is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility and of course magnetism to the 1.30 area. At this point in time, it looks as if oil is starting to slip, so I think if we can break above the 1.32 level, this market will continue to rally. Until then, it’s a short-term trade environment only.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Buy Dips Around C$1.3020/25
he USD/CAD pair reached a high of C$1.3090 on Friday before paring its gains to end the session at C$1.3036 levels.
On Monday ahead of the European session the pair was trading almost flat at C$1.3040.
The pair has broken major resistance at C$1.3000 (100-DMA) and there is scope for further gains on the charts.
Momentum studies for the pair are bullish. C$1.3090 (Friday’s high), above which the pair could target C$1.3107 (June 28 high), C$1.3121 (June 27 high) and then C$1.3189 (May 24 high).
Weakness only on a break below C$1.2986 (23.6% Fib of Jan to May fall), with a test of C$1.2931 (50-DMA) then likely.
There is little data of note out of the US and Canada today, so the spotlight remains on the sentiment across markets and the oil price movements.
Trade idea: Good to buy dips around $1.3020/25 with a stop loss at $1.2985 and take profit at $1.3090/ $1.31/ $1.3120/ $1.3190.