USDCAD news - page 13
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USD/CAD re-approaches 5-week highs in early trade
The U.S. dollar edged up against its Canadian counterpart on Monday, re-approaching a five-week high as demand for the greenback remained broadly supported by Friday's U.S. inflation data.
Trading volumes were expected to remain thin with markets in the U.K., Germany and the U.S. closed for holidays.
USD/CAD hit 1.2308 during early U.S. trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2294, adding 0.12%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2173, the low of May 22 and resistance at 1.2329, the high of April 16.
The dollar strengthened broadly on Friday after data showed that U.S. core consumer prices rose 0.3% in April and were 1.8% higher on a year-over-year basis, the largest increase since October.
The greenback received an additional boost after Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that the bank still expected to start raising interest rates later this year if the economy continued to improve as expected.
The loonie was higher against the euro, with EUR/CAD slipping 0.14% to 1.3504.
Sentiment on the single currency remained vulnerable as the prospect of a Greek default continued to weigh.
On Sunday Greece’s Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis warned that the country would be unable to make a €305 million payment to the International Monetary Fund due on June 5 if a cash-for-reforms deal with its international lenders is not reached by then.
source
BOC leaves interest rate unchanged at 0.75%
Details from the BOC monetary policy meeting 27 May 2015
The announcement was worth a 46 odd pip move in USDCAD from 1.2421 to 1.2167, and we're back trading at 1.2445
It's steady as she goes for a pretty neutral BOC
Here's the full announcement;
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 3/4 per cent
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
27 May 2015
The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent.
Inflation in Canada continues to track the path outlined in the Bank's AprilMonetary Policy Report(MPR). Total CPI inflation is near the bottom of the Bank's 1 to 3 per cent inflation control range, largely due to the transitory effects of sharply lower energy prices. Core inflation remains above 2 per cent, boosted by the pass-through effects of past depreciation of the Canadian dollar, as well as certain sector-specific factors. Seeing through the various temporary factors, the Bank estimates that the underlying trend of inflation is 1.6 to 1.8 per cent, consistent with persistent slack in the economy.
The outlook for the Canadian economy also remains largely in line with the April MPR. While a weak first quarter in the United States has raised questions about that economy's underlying strength, the Bank expects a return to solid growth in the second quarter. This will help advance the rotation of demand in Canada toward more exports and business investment. Recent indicators suggest consumption in Canada is holding up relatively well, given the impact of lower oil prices on gross domestic income.
Despite the recent back-up in global bond yields, financial conditions for Canadian households and firms remain highly stimulative. The Canadian dollar has strengthened in recent weeks in the context of higher oil prices and a softer U.S. dollar. If these developments are sustained, their net effect will need to be assessed as more data become available in the months ahead.
Although a number of complex adjustments are under way, the Bank's assessment of risks to the inflation profile has not materially changed. Risks to financial stability remain elevated, but appear to be evolving as expected. Weighing all of these risks, the Bank judges that the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate and therefore the target for the overnight rate remains at 3/4 per cent.
source
USD/CAD rises to fresh 6-week highs in early trade
The U.S. dollar rose to fresh six-week highs against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday, even after data showed that last week's U.S. jobless claims rose more than expected, as expectations for a U.S. rate hike in the near future continued to support.
USD/CAD hit 1.2513 during early U.S. trade, the pair's highest since April 15; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2504, gaining 0.42%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2395, Wednesday's low and resistance at 1.2570, the high of April 15.
In a report, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending May 23 rose by 7,000 to 282,000 from the previous week’s total of 275,000.
Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to fall by 5,000 to 270,000 last week.
Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned as economic data released in the past week, including reports on inflation, new home sales, business investment and consumer confidence all indicated that the U.S. economy is gaining momentum after a slowdown in the first quarter.
Expectations that the economy will rebound from the first quarter have supported the view that the Federal Reserve will begin to hike interest rates around September.
In Canada, data on Thursday showed that the current account deficit widened to C$17.5 billion in the first quarter from C$13.1 billion in the last quarter of 2014, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated deficit of C$13.9 billion.
Analysts had expected the current account deficit to widen to C$18.5 billion in the last quarter.
The loonie was lower against the euro, with EUR/CAD rising 0.31% to 1.3618.
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USD/CAD forecast for the week of June 1, 2015
The USD/CAD pair broke higher during the course of the week, but ended up forming 2 shooting stars on Thursday and Friday. Because of this, we think the market may pull back a little but as we have ran into significant resistance at the 1.25 level. However, if we break the top of the range for the week, we feel the market will then head towards the 1.28 level. Nonetheless, we think that the 1.22 level is going to be supportive, so as far as long-term trades are concerned, selling is almost impossible.
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USD/CAD Forecast June 1-5
USD/CAD enjoyed another strong week, gaining about 150 points. The pair closed the week at 1.2453, its highest close since early April. This week’s major event is Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
In the US, the dollar got a boost from strong core durables data and managed to weather weak GDP and employment numbers. The pair moved higher as Canadian GDP disappointed, posting a decline of 0.2%.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD opened the week at 1.2295 and quickly touched a low of 1.2273. The pair then moved upwards, touching a high of 1.2538, as resistance held firm at 1.2541 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 1.2453.
USD/CAD: Loonie Drops on Poor Trade, Lower Oil
The Canadian dollar fell back to the C$1.24 level as domestic trade data disappointed with the second largest trade deficit recorded in April. The data spurred a Canadian dollar sell-off.
The loonie regained some losses, trading 0.31% lower at C$1.2441 against the greenback, after reaching the intraday low of C$1.2497.
"Weakness in the Canadian dollar is a reaction to softer-than-expected trade deficit, much of which comes off worse-than-expected performance in the export sector," managing director of foreign exchange at National Bank Financial, Jack Spitz, told WBP Online.
"The trade number itself was disappointing. Whenever there is a reference made to a record deficit - the revised number for March - and the second highest deficit - April figure - the immediate reaction is to sell the currency," he said, adding that this is what is happening to the Canadian dollar today. "All of this is also happening against the market volatility and market liquidity."
The Canadian trade deficit narrowed to the second highest on record in April, missing expectations. Imports fell 2.5% and exports ticked down 0.7% during the month, leading to a C$3 billion deficit – the seventh in a row – Statistics Canada said on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, March's figure was revised upward from a C$3 billion to a C$3.9 billion deficit, raising the bar for the highest trade gap ever recorded in Canada.
In comparison, the US trade gap shrank 19.2% to $40.9 billion, which is much better than the $44 billion the markets had been expecting. Imports slipped 3.3% to $230.8 billion, while exports rose 1.4% to $189.9 billion.
The greenback came across some pressure after the release of Markit's service PMI data and the ISM’s non-manufacturing figures, as both missed earlier projections.
US activity in the services sector slowed to the weakest level since January, financial firm Markit said, indicating that its final PMI reading eased to 56.2 in May from the 57.4 seen in April.
At the same time, America's non-manufacturing sector posted a slowdown from its five-month high in May, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index falling to 55.7 from 57.8 recorded in April.
Meanwhile, lower crude oil prices weighed on the resource-linked loonie, following a fresh petroleum report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which showed that the pace of decline of US stockpiles moderated at the end of May.
Commercial inventories of oil fell by 1.95 million barrels in the week of May 29, missing the 2.5 million barrel draw the market had been anticipating.
In response, futures for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were down 1.60% at $60.28 per barrel, while Brent contracts were 2.00% lower at $64.18 per barrel.
source
USD/CAD rises on upbeat U.S. data in early trade
The U.S. dollar rose against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday, helped by the release of upbeat U.S. jobless claims data and as investors turned their attention to Friday's highly anticipated U.S. employment report.
USD/CAD hit 1.2491 during early U.S. trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2493, gaining 0.34%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2380, Wednesday's low and resistance at 1.2534, the high of June 2.
In a report, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending May 30 declined by 8,000 to 276,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 284,000. Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to fall by 5,000 to 279,000 last week.
The report came after data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. private sector added 201,000 jobs last month, slightly ahead of expectations for 200,000 indicating that the recovery in the labor market is on track.
Investors were looking ahead to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for further indications on the strength of the U.S. job market.
The loonie was lower against the euro, with EUR/CAD up 0.11% to 1.4052.
The single currency was boosted as German 10-year bund yields jumped to their highest level since September, narrowing the gap with their U.S. counterparts.
German bund yields act as benchmarks for European financial markets and higher yields push the euro higher against the dollar. Yields rise as prices fall.
But investors remained cautious after talks between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels late Wednesday ended without an agreement to unlock more financial aid before the country runs out of money.
source
Canadian May employment +58.9K vs +10.0K expected
Details of the Canadian May jobs report:
Quick drop down to 1.2447 from 1.2500 but it nearly completely retraced to 1.2500 as the US dollar jumps right across the board on better non-farm payrolls. There may be some value in buying CAD on the crosses here.
USD/CAD forecast for the week of June 8, 2015
The USD/CAD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, ultimately forming a neutral candle. It appears of the 1.25 level is offering a bit of resistance, so it appears that the market could very well break down from here. If we break the bottom of the range, this market should then head to the 1.23 level, and possibly even down to the 1.20 level. On the other hand, if we break above the top of the range for the week, the market should then head to the 1.28 handle.
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April 2015 Canadian building permits +11.6% vs -6.0% exp m/m
Details of the April 2015 Canadian building permits data report 8 June 2015
USDCAD has a look at 1.2400 from 1.2422
Non-residential properties led the gains rising 30.2% vs 24.8% prior. Residential rose 1.2% vs 8.1% prior