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USD/CAD forecast for the week of September 15, 2014
The USD/CAD pair broke much higher during the course of the week, slicing through the 1.10 resistance level. With that, the market has broken out and we believe that the US dollar will continue to gain against the Canadian dollar. The oil markets certainly are doing anything to help the Canadian dollar, and it appears now that we will head towards the 1.1250 level. If we can get above there, we feel that the market then goes to the 1.15 handle. We have no interest whatsoever in selling, and as a result we are “buy only.”
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USD/CAD weekly outlook: September 15 - 19
The broadly stronger U.S. dollar rose to five-and-a-half month highs against the Canadian dollar on Friday amid growing expectations for an early hike in U.S. interest rates.
USD/CAD was up 0.51% to 1.1091 in late trade on Friday, the highest level since March 27. For the week the pair advanced 1.89%.
The pair is likely to find support at around 1.1025 and resistance at around the 1.1130 level.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve is growing closer to raising interest rates continued to bolster investor demand for the greenback.
A study by the San Francisco Fed published on Monday indicated that central bank officials see rates rising sooner than markets expect.
The Fed was expected to cut its asset purchase program by another $10 billion at its upcoming policy meeting next week which would keep it on track for winding up the program in October, and to start raising interest rates sometime in mid-2015.
Minutes from the Fed's July meeting indicated that the central bank was shifting its monetary policy stance towards raising rates from record lows.
Data on Friday showing that U.S. retail sales rose in August and another report showing that consumer sentiment rose to a 14-month high in September underlined the view that the economic recovery is deepening.
The greenback received an additional boost from increased safe haven demand after the U.S. and the European Union imposed a fresh round of economic sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine.
Sentiment on the commodity linked Canadian dollar was also hit on Wednesday after official data showed that the annual rate of Chinese inflation rose less than expected in August, weighing on the demand outlook for crude oil.
Crude oil is Canada’s largest export and the country’s currency is sensitive to oil price fluctuations.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Wednesday’s Fed policy meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen was to hold a press conference following the meeting.
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Canadian core CPI 0.5% vs. 0.2% forecast
Canadian core consumer price inflation rose more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Friday.
In a report, Statistics Canada said that Canadian core CPI rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.5%, from -0.1% in the preceding month.
Analysts had expected Canadian core CPI to rise 0.2% last month.
Canadian consumer price inflation 0.0% vs. -0.1% forecast
Consumer price inflation in Canada remained unchanged unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Friday.
In a report, Statistics Canada said that Canadian consumer price inflation remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 0.0%, from -0.2% in the preceding month.
Analysts had expected Canadian consumer price inflation to fall -0.1% last month.
Canadian wholesale sales -0.3% vs. 0.8% forecast
Canadian wholesale sales fell unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Friday.
In a report, Statistics Canada said that Canadian wholesale sales fell to a seasonally adjusted -0.3%, from 0.8% in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from 0.6%.
Analysts had expected Canadian wholesale sales to rise 0.8% last month.
USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 22-26
The Canadian dollar rebounded last week, gaining over 100 cents against the US dollar. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0962. This week’s highlight is Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
US employment and consumer confidence numbers were strong last week, and the Fed hinted that once rates are raised, subsequent rates could take place more quickly than expected. Still, the Canadian dollar came out on top last week, buoyed by strong manufacturing and inflation numbers.
* All times are GMT.
Canadian core retail sales -0.6% vs. -0.1% forecast
Core retail sales in Canada fell more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Tuesday.
In a report, Statistics Canada said that Canadian core retail sales fell to a seasonally adjusted -0.6%, from 1.5% in the preceding month.
Analysts had expected Canadian core retail sales to fall -0.1% last month.
Canadian retail sales -0.1% vs. 0.4% forecast
Canadian retail sales fell unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Tuesday.
In a report, Statistics Canada said that retail sales fell to -0.1%, from 1.2% in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from 1.1%.
Analysts had expected retail sales to rise 0.4% last month.
Canadian dollar loses more ground: CAD/USD below 90 cents
The Canadian dollar is being carried away by the recent dollar storm, joining its peer commodity currency peers and is losing ground against the greenback, despite the fact that a strong US economy is good for the Canadian one, that Canadian inflation is on the rise and that the Bank of Canada has finally acknowledged this. The weakness in oil prices is a factor that plays against the C$.
CAD/USD is now below 0.90, as USD/CAD tops 1.1111.
USD/CAD forecast for the week of September 29, 2014
The USD/CAD pair broke higher during the course of the week, slicing through the 1.10 level yet again. In fact, we closed at roughly 1.1150, which means that we are starting to dig into the resistance and heading towards the 1.12 handle. Because of this, we feel that the market will ultimately his that level, and then break above there in order to start offering more longer-term trades. We think that pullbacks continue to offer value, and will find them time and time again. We have no plans whatsoever on selling.
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