GBPUSD news - page 93
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Cable pops to a fresh high on the day
GBP/USD up 320 pips to 1.4678
The pound is soaring.
There's no news behind the latest pop as it takes out the European high of 1.4672 and touched 1.4691.
Traders are looking for evidence of a poll being released but there doesn't appear to be anything out there. It looks like flows and stops as the June 6 high of 1.4660 is broken.
What an incredible day for GBP.
June 2016 UK CBI industrial trends orders -2 vs -10 exp
June 2016 UK CBI industrial trends orders report 21 June 2016
GBP/USD: Sterling Trades Higher on D-Day for UK
Sterling gained ground on Thursday on the back of boosted support for the 'Remain' vote, as voting in the UK referendum on the nation's future in the EU got underway.
The pair traded 0.6% higher at $1.4797 on Thursday morning in Europe.
After a few weeks of increased support for Brexit, recent polls have shown stronger support for the 'Remain' side in the lead up to the referendum.
The YouGov online poll published yesterday showed 51% of voters wanted to remain in the EU, while 49% wanted out.
A telephone poll, which are seen as more reliable, conducted by ComRes posted 48% support for remaining part of the trading bloc, 42% in favor of leaving, while 11% were still undecided.
An Opinium Research poll published by The Independent newspaper, also a day before the referendum, showed 45% support for the 'Leave' camp, 44% for 'Remain' and 11% undecided.
An online poll conduced by TNS, however, showed 41% voting for staying in the union, 43% voting for leaving and 16% undecided.
The betting odds indicate a 73% probability that the UK will remain in the EU, while the odds on Brexit were 11/4, or 27%.
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GBP/USD forecast for the week of June 27, 2016
The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week and then fell apart. This of course was exacerbated by the fact that the nagging them has voted to leave the European Union, and that of course is very negative way comes down to the value of the British pound. With this, it’s only a matter of time before the market sells off yet again, but you will probably have to look to short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion, and not long-term charts such as the weekly chart.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: Bears Expected to Prevail While Sterling Trades Below $1.40
There won't be much UK data throughout the week and investors will most likely reprice the Brexit situation as riskier assets - including the GBP/USD pair - have recovered notably since the initial sell-off, and this trend might continue in the days ahead.
However, the pound especially might come under further selling pressure, if the pair fails to jump beyond the $1.40 mark.
"We see the odds of a UK recession within the next 12 months now as 60%. We pencil in year-end targets for GBPUSD of 1.20 and 0.50% lows in 10y gilts, and shift the next Fed hike to June 2017, with a 30% chance of a rate cut but only if downside risks materialize, in what will be fluid forecasts with large margins of error,'' analysts at TD Securities wrote on Friday.
Wednesday will bring house prices for June according to Nationwide, with the monthly change in May at 0.2% and the year-on-year reading at 4.7%.
On Thursday, the third estimate of the first quarter GDP is due, along with the current account. These data might have a small influence on the pound.
Friday will bring the manufacturing PMI for June, with the May reading scoring a weak 50.1 points, although it had jumped from 49.2 points scored in April.
Volatility is expected to be very high throughout the week so cautious trading should take priority.
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GBP/USD: Sterling Hits New 1985 Lows
Sterling booked another set of losses on Monday as the Brexit uncertainties continued to weigh on the UK's currency.
The cable traded 3.66% lower at $1.3159 early Monday afternoon in Europe, dropping to the fresh lowest level since September 1985.
Sterling dropped below Friday's low created amid panic trading stemming from the success of the 'Leave' camp in the referendum on EU membership.
Markets and betting agencies predicted the 'Remain' campaign would win and investors were caught off guard after Britons chose to leave the union. Stock indices plummeted in the EU, UK and US, while the pound dropped to 31-year lows.
The markets were calmer in the morning after George Osborne's speech. He gave few specific details, but created a sense of continuity and organization after David Cameron, as well as many members of the shadow cabinet, resigned.
Osborne also said that Article 50 will be triggered only when a new PM is appointed, which should be in October, so that the PM can lead the renegotiations.
However, the calm mood failed to last and sterling returned to plummeting.
UK house prices rise 5.1 percent on year in June: Nationwide
British house prices recorded modest growth this month, causing the annual rate of growth to pick up unexpectedly to a three-month high in June, figures from mortgage lender Nationwide showed on Wednesday.
Nationwide said house prices rose 0.2 percent in June - unchanged from the rate in April and May - and that annual growth picked up to 5.1 percent from 4.7 percent, beating economists' expectations of a 4.9 percent rise.
Nationwide economist Robert Gardner said it was too early to judge the impact of Britain's vote to leave the European Union on the housing market, but a lack of homes for sale and high employment rates were likely to keep upward pressure on prices.
GBP/USD: Pound Pushes Above $1.35 on US Dollar Weakness
Sterling soared on Wednesday and was trading around $1.3509 during US trading hours, 1.25% stronger on the day.
The Brexit anxiety has diminished slightly since late Monday, which brought a relief rally on most of the sold-off assets, with stocks and higher-yielding currencies rising sharply since Tuesday. Sterling managed to capitalize on this rally as well.
"We see little to no relief for the pound in the foreseeable future which should remain under downward pressure, although it is unlikely to continue falling at such an alarming rate as during the initial Brexit shock phase. Heightened economic and political uncertainty in the UK will not ease in the near-term," analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi wrote on Wednesday.
US data released on Wednesday showed that the PCE price index year-on-year slowed in May to 0.9%, from 1.1% booked in April. Moreover, the core gauge stayed unchanged at 1.6%.
In addition, personal income for May moderated to 0.2% from 0.5% previously, and personal spending also ticked lower from 1.1% to 0.4%. The greenback dipped in the initial reaction and remained pressured after the release as well.
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Pound Dives on Carney's Comments
Sterling was negatively hit by comments by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney economic outlook on the UK, as it has deteriorated following the Brexit decision. It was the second speech from the governor since the UK voted to leave the EU.
During his speech, Carney affirmed that some monetary policy easing from the BoE is likely to be needed over the summer.
"I can assure you that in the coming months the Bank can be expected to take whatever action is needed to support growth subject to inflation being projected to return to the target over an appropriate horizon, and inflation expectations remaining well anchored," Carney said.
The GBP/USD currency pair reacted immediately to the governor's words, dropping from above the $1.34-level to a session low of $1.3215, and losing around two big figures in a one-hour period.
The pair managed to rebound slightly later on, and was trading around $1.3250, losing 1.30% on the day.
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Sterling Trades Above $1.33, Disregards Manufacturing PMI
According to the latest release, the UK manufacturing PMI for June improved notably to 52.1 from 50.1 scored in May, while analysts had expected the measure to stay at 50.1.
The GBP/USD pair failed to react in a volatile way and was trading near the $1.33 mark, still flattish on the day.
Moreover, Monday will see the construction PMI and on Tuesday, the services PMI will be published.
Yesterday Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's hints that further easing might be necessary sent the pound 150 pips lower, back toward the $1.32 mark, but sterling managed to recover slightly.
"Governor Carney’s suggestion that the BoE needed to consider moves 'over the summer' or between the July and August MPC meetings is in our view an indication that the MPC might not rush into easing at its meeting on 14th July. By giving this strong signal now it provides the MPC with the flexibility to consider circumstances in July before taking action in August without the financial markets responding badly to inaction on 14th July," analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi wrote on Friday.
In the previous session, the UK's GDP for the first quarter stayed at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, while the yearly change stayed at 2.0%, the Office for National Statistics advised on Thursday.
From the US dollar perspective, the manufacturing PMI for June should decelerate to 51.2 from 51.4 booked previously. The ISM's manufacturing PMI for June is forecast to stay at 51.3. The numbers are nearing the 50 barrier and should not help the greenback at all.