GBPUSD news - page 86
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GBP/USD: Pound Holds Morning Gains, Inflation Data Loom The British pound kept its solid position against the greenback seen earlier in the morning, amid the risk-on mood on global financial markets during Monday's data-light session.
In addition, the buck experienced a poor performance in general as the US dollar index remained under bearish pressure, falling to the lowest point since August 2015 at 93.74 points. The dollar was still hearing echoes of the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes that lowered the odds of an April rate hike.
As a result, cable spiked 0.92% to $1.4251, rising from an intraday low of $1.4106 seen during European market hours.
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GBP/USD: Pound Retreats as Brexit Fears Return Sterling ended a two-day winning streak versus the greenback, as the buck made gains across the board following hawkish comments by some US policymakers.
Cable was approaching the $1.42 mark on Wednesday after the pound made short-lived gains following a report showing a higher-than-expected inflation rate for March.
Sterling lost 0.4% to trade at $1.4214, touching a low of $1.4193.
Fears about the economic consequences of the approaching referendum on Britain’s European Union membership returned, affecting sterling. The prospect of a Brexit is real after an opinion poll by ICM showed voters wanting to exit the bloc three points ahead of those in favor of continued EU membership.
Britain’s Electoral Commission picked 'Vote Leave' backed by influential conservative politicians including London Mayor Boris Johnson and Justice Secretary Michael Gove, as the official campaign representing those that want to withdraw from the bloc. The 'Britain Stronger in Europe' campaign, chaired by Stuart Rose, former boss of Marks and Spencer, was selected to represent those seeking to remain in the EU.
The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that Britain leaving the EU could cause severe damage to European and global economies.
"For many, the idea of a Brexit seems unlikely and any devaluation in sterling should therefore be seen as a temporary opportunity," Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG in London wrote in an email note. "However, it is clear that public opinion is gradually shifting towards an EU exit, providing an increasingly real threat that the UK could go our own way."
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GBP/USD: Sterling Suffers Ahead of BoE Decision Sterling dropped another 0.45% on Thursday and was trading near intraday lows around $1.4135, as Brexit fears reemerged and undermined the pound. Further volatility might come later during the US session as well.
According to the latest Brexit polls by Yougov, the "remain" and "leave" camps were both level on 39%, while 22% of UK citizens were undecided at the time of the poll. The result undermined the pound on Thursday.
The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that Britain leaving the EU could cause severe damage to European and global economies.
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GBP/USD: Cable Ticks Higher, Gains Limited Sterling was trying to rise on Friday, yet gains appear limited and it managed to book only marginal profits during the EU session, with the GBP/USD pair spotted trading around $1.4170.
In the previous session, the Bank of England (BoE) left monetary policy unchanged, with the main rate staying at 0.5% and the annual pace of QE remaining at £375 billion.
The minutes from this meeting revealed that the BoE voted unanimously for these measures to stay at current levels. This decision did not spur any significant volatility and cable remained around $1.4150, practically unchanged.
"Cable dropped below 1.41, before pulling back off the lows on Thursday. There is scope for a down-sloping inverted head and shoulders pattern but price needs to hold 1.39 to keep that pattern alive," Jasper Lawler, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said in a note on Friday.
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GBP/USD forecast for the week of April 18, 2016 The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned right back around to form a shooting star. We are still within a consolidation area though, so having said that it’s difficult to imagine trading this market off of the longer-term charts. Shorter-term trades would of course be different, and as a result we believe that the market will continue to show quite a bit of negativity, but it’s going to be easier trading off of the daily chart, or even shorter time frames than that.
GBP/USD: Sterling at Daily Highs, Further Upside Likely The risks of the Brexit have been ignored this week so far and the pound rose mainly on US dollar weakness. The pair was riding the risk-on wave, pushing back well above the $1.43 mark on Tuesday.
Cable was spotted 0.55% stronger to $1.4354 during the London session, trading at session's high.
"The UK Treasury released their much anticipated report yesterday which analyses the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives. The report supports the campaign to remain within the EU by concluding that none of the alternatives support trade and provide influence on the world stage in the same way as continued membership of a reformed EU, and all of them come with the serious economic costs that affect businesses, jobs, living standards and the public finances for decades to come," analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi wrote on Tuesday.
The currency may remain volatile and come back under pressure, as traders have reduced bets on future rate increases by the Bank of England. Policymakers at their meeting last week considered Brexit risks when making their latest interest-rate decision.
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GBP/USD: Sterling Below $1.44, Awaits Labor Data Sterling was trading marginally lower during the EU session on Wednesday and was seen near intraday lows, trading around $1.4370, with further volatility likely during the day.
Later in the day the UK jobless claims change for March is due and is expected to worsen from -18,000 to -10,000, whilst the unemployment rate should remain at 5.1% in February. Average weekly earnings for February are expected to remain near January levels. Sterling will most likely be volatile after the release.
"UK labor market data on Wednesday is expected to show the unemployment rate and average earnings growth flat at 5.1% and 2.1% 3m/y respectively. With the surprise pop in UK inflation in March it would be a surprise to see some of that was wage-pulled. Still wage growth above 2% is still much higher inflation and supportive of UK growth, which challenges the cautious outlook from the Bank of England," Jasper Lawler, market analyst at CMC Markets, said on Wednesday.
Moreover on Thursday, domestic retail sales for March are due and they should slow month-on-month, but the yearly change is expected to pick up. In addition, public sector net borrowing data are due as well.
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GBP: The End Of The Pounding? The latest rebound in the pound comes on the back of indications from the polls that the support for the ‘Stay-in’ vote has reached one of its highest levels in recent months.
We think that this maybe an early indication that the latest government campaign to avoid Brexit is finally starting to bear fruit. In addition, weaker UK data of late has further added credibility of the growing chorus of officials (including the BoE) and business representatives voicing their fears about the damaging impact of a potential Brexit on the UK economy.
Last but not least, the EU officials have taken steps to tackle the refugee crisis and that may take the edge off some of voters’ worst fears.
Abating Brexit fears could continue to support GBP even though we doubt that a trend reversal higher is on the cards is likely.
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GBP/USD forecast for the week of April 25, 2016 The GBP/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, closing shortly below the 1.45 handle. Breaking above the top of the shooting star is a bullish sign, but having said that, we need to clear that area in order to start buying from a longer-term perspective. Ultimately, we believe that this is probably best traded on short-term charts more than anything else. At this point in time, we are still within the consolidation area that has been driving this market for several weeks now.
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UK Factory Output Remains Muted in April, Outlook Firmer: CBI The balance of industrial orders in the UK improved to -11% on a month-on-month basis in April, compared to -14% measured in March. The quarterly less volatile balance remained unchanged at -4% in April from the three months to March, the survey from the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) showed on Monday.
The CBI said that weaker sterling should help export orders and that investment intentions remained strong. The CBI said the outlook for the upcoming quarter was "a little firmer" with both output and demand expected to grow. Despite this, optimism about exports for the coming year has flat-lined, the CBI said.
"Manufacturing has yet to pick-up after a flat start to the year, with falling orders providing little impetus for production. While expectations for the upcoming quarter are encouraging, manufacturers are still facing sizeable external headwinds," CBI director of economics Rain Newton-Smith said in the report.
"The falling exchange rate should give some support to manufacturers, and investment intentions are strong. With the expected pick-up in exports, it’s likely that firms will be looking to increase capacity," she added.
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