GBPUSD news - page 79
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GBP: A Breakthrough, Not A Brexit? - Credit Agricole Overnight, it transpired that next to an immediate 'emergency break' to stem the flow of welfare tourists, the EU has offered the so-called 'red card' to PM Cameron, which will allow the UK parliament, together with a sufficient majority of other national parliaments, to block any unwanted EU legislation. With some of the most controversial UK's demands now having been addressed, chances of a compromise ahead of the February EU summit have increased in our view.
It remains to be seen whether the latest developments will constitute the breakthrough that will ultimately prevent Brexit.
That said, we suspect that GBP could consolidate ahead of the BoE IR on Thursday. Indeed, the MPC could find solace in the fact that domestic demand remains resilient in the face of global growth headwinds and Brexit fears.
As a result, the message could disappoint the more dovish investors out there and this could prop up the pound some more.
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GBPUSD continues to march higher and has 1.45 in its sights The small fundamental positives are all adding up to lift the pound Yesterday it was the draft UK/EU deal that helped the pound out. Today it's the services PMI. None of it was huge news that changes the current landscape regarding BOE monetary policy but put enough small bricks together and you start to build something bigger. Throw in some dollar weakness and we see why the upside is the path of least resistance right now.
That is until we hit some bigger levels. 1.4440 has been the topside so far this month and it went today. We're seeing that confirmed with a hold at 1.4435/40 and then at 1.4450
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Sterling Hovers at 1-Month High Ahead of BoE's Super Thursday Sterling prolonged its rally from the previous session on ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) 'super Thursday', which will see the central bank's rate decision, meeting minutes and inflation report released at noon in UK.
US dollar weakness remains the primary driver behind significant cable gains, pushing sterling to hit its highest level since January 6. The pound was seen 0.38% higher at $1.4657 ahead of the BoE's action.
There is no doubt the BoE will leave its policy stance unchanged in February. The bank is likely to leave the base rate at the rock bottom of 0.5%, where it has been for nearly seven years.
The inflation report is expected to reinforce this low interest rate narrative, with downgrades to both inflation and growth forecasts expected in light of the sharp declines seen in oil prices since the November bulletin. Oil prices are trading about 32% lower than when November's Inflation Report was released.
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GBP/USD: Pound Hammered From 1-Mth High as BoE Rate Vote Turns Unanimous Sterling widened its losses against the greenback on Thursday in the minutes after the Bank of England decided to keep rates steady.
The pound was seen 15% lower at $1.4585 against the dollar after testing the $1.4600 barrier some 15 minutes prior to the BoE's decision.
Earlier in the day, the GBP/USD was navigating the area of multi-week highs around $1.4660, bolstered by a continuation of the selling interest around the dollar.
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Great recovery!
GBP/USD forecast for the week of February 8, 2016
The GBP/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, testing areas above the 1.45 level. We gave back quite a bit of the gains though, so at this point in time although it looks like we could go higher, it’s going to be a fight. We simply wait until we get a resistant candle above in order to start shorting yet again as the downtrend has been so reliable for several months now. At this point, as long as there is a lot of uncertainty around the world, the US dollar should continue to strengthen.
December 2015 UK visible trade balance -9.92bn vs -10.40bn exp Details of the December 2015 UK visible trade balance data report 9 February 2016
Better headline, worse revisions. A lot of the better headline number is being put down to the drop in oil prices but analysts are worried that the Q4 increase in the global trade balance is going to hamper the Q4 revisions
GBP/USD: Sterling Remains Flat After UK Data Sterling remained subdued on Tuesday, while overall market sentiment was driven by risk aversion due to the previous session's slump in banking stocks in Europe and the US. Trade balance figures for December showed the deficit narrowed more than expected.
The UK trade deficit on goods and services narrowed to £2.7 billion in December, down from an upwardly revised £4 billion a month before.
The pound was seen flat at $1.4429 on Tuesday, after the UK data. In the previous session the pound broke above the $1.45 handle due to broad US dollar weakness, but is still unable to reverse 2016 losses.
The US dollar index was seen slightly higher on Tuesday at 96.758, but significantly lower after being seen above 99.6 at the end of January. Last week the US dollar index fell to its 4-months lows. Although US jobs data prompted a slight recovery in the US dollar, the pace of rate hikes in the US remains in question, weakening the greenback.
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December 2015 UK industrial production -1.1% vs -0.1% exp m/m Details of the December 2015 UK industrial production data report 10 February 2016
Very poor numbers but the ONS say that will have less than a 0.1% impact on Q4 GDP
Mining, oil & gas extraction and manufacturing were the main reasons behind the biggest drop in output since 2012
Cable dropped initially but has recovered back to 1.4490
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Reuters poll of 28 economists sees a 40% chance of Brexit
Latest Reuters poll just published