GBPUSD news - page 66
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September 2015 UK Markit CIPS manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 51.3 exp
Details of the September 2015 UK Markit CIPS manufacturing PMI data report 1 October 2015
September 2015 UK Markit/CIPS construction PMI 59.9 vs 57.5 exp
Details of the September 2015 UK Markit CIPS construction PMI data report 2 October 2015
GBP/USD forecast for the week of October 5, 2015
The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, continuing to hang about the 1.52 level. This is an area that could continue to be a bit of support, so if we can break above the top of the candle we feel that the market will head towards the 1.55 level. The market going back and forth is more indicative of a short-term trading opportunity than anything else, so having said that we are not looking to make longer-term trades and will have to look to the short-term charts.
Not The Time To Turn Bearish On Sterling: 3 Reasons - Deutsche Bank
"There is a case to be made that the sterling rally is mature...Nevertheless, we don’t believe it’s time to turn bearish GBP just yet.
First, the risk remains that the Bank of England defies markets by tightening sooner than currently anticipated. Of the three tests set out by Carney in his July Lincoln speech, two are arguably being met (growth and labor costs), while there are clear signs of process on the third (core inflation). The market does not believe the BoE could tighten before the Fed, and has hence almost entirely priced out hikes for this year, with only 9bp now priced for February. But confidence may be misplaced. Past experience shows the MPC have moved before the FOMC, the BoE has explicitly said it will not wait on foreign central banks, and in accelerating wage growth there is at least prima facie evidence of a tight labor market, unlike in the US. At the very least, the risk reward appears skewed for earlier hikes. Hawkishness could thus help GBP against both EUR and USD, with the pound still very correlated to short-end rates.
Second, positioning has lightened significantly. Implied EUR/GBP shorts on the IMM are now at early 2014 levels. Volumes have also dropped off according to our DB Flow Report.
Third, underlying flows continue to be very healthy. The most high frequency data shows the UK has notched up 72bn of combined gilt and M&A inflows since March, in both cases accelerating from the first quarter. With gilt-bund spreads remaining at record highs and the investment environment favorable, there is no reason to think either should pause.
In short, there is not yet evidence that recent drivers of GBP strength have changed. Stay long."
source
GBP/USD Forecast Oct. 5-9
GBP/USD had a quiet week, closing at 1.5178. The upcoming week is a busy one, with 11 events on the schedule. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
In the US, the NFP report was a huge disappointment, ending the trading week on a sour note. This helped the weak pound hold its own last week. In the UK, Construction PMI beat expectations.
Updates:
GBP_USD_Forecast.Oct.5-9
Services PMI: Monday, 8:30. This key indicator has lost ground in the past 2 months, and came in at 55.6 points in the August release, short of the estimate of 57.6 points. The markets are expecting better news in September, with an estimate of 56.4 points.
Halifax HPI: Tuesday, 6th-9th. This housing inflation indicator provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. The index surprised the markets with a surge of 2.7% in August, its sharpest gain in over a year.
Housing Equity Withdrawal: Tuesday, 8:30. This minor housing indicator is released on a quarterly basis. The indicator remained steady at -13 billion pounds in Q1, weaker than the forecast of -12.1 billion. The estimate for Q2 stands at -12.5 billion pounds.
BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. This indicator measures the change in consumer inflation recorded in BRC shops. The indicator has been steady, posting two consecutive declines of 1.4%.
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GBP/USD: Sterling Starts Week on Positive Note
The pound started the week on a positive note, still taking advantage of a weaker dollar which is suffering from one of the worst US jobs reports all year.
Last week's poor US non-farm payrolls, paired with a lower ISM PMI and the Chicago PMI entering contractionary territory, have pushed estimates for the first rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed) into Q1 2016, which broadly weakened the US dollar.
A more cautious tone from the Bank of England (BoE) compared with a more resolute Fed, whose members continue to refer to a 2015 rate hike, has left the British pound beholden to the US dollar. However, "strength of the pound is being diminished on the idea that the Bank of England is waiting for the Federal Reserve to hike first," Jasper Lawler from CMC Markets UK wrote on Monday.
The GBP/USD rose 0.28% to $1.5215, hovering near session highs and off four-and-a-half month lows seen last week.
"If the Fed is unable to raise rates in 2015 after having previously signaled a very strong desire to do so, then its credibility is going to be severely damaged. This is not only likely to crimp the performance of the US dollar in the near term, but also significantly damage the perceived primacy of the US dollar’s status as the default reserve currency," Angus Nicholson from IG wrote on Monday.
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UK Firms See BoE Rate Hike as 'Greatest Risk' to Growth: Survey
Chief financial officers at the UK's largest corporations see uncertainty within the global economy rising at the fastest pace in five years, with corporate risk appetite and sentiment fading amid weakness in the emerging markets, Deloitte's survey of chief financial officers (CFOs) showed on Monday.
The report showed that fewer CFOs now think it is a good time to take a risk. "Rising risk aversion is feeding into a more defensive stance on the part of major corporates, with a greater focus on cost reduction and rather less on investment," the survey reads.
Regarding the outlook for monetary policy in the UK and the US, the CFOs see the prospect of tighter monetary policy "as the greatest risk facing their businesses."
Given the increased level of uncertainty and "flagging" business confidence, the CFOs now think that "the recent moves by the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve to signal that interest rates are likely to stay lower for longer look well judged."
Despite global risks, the UK economy remains resilient, and CFOs are positive about the prospects for the domestic economy, but "a strong pound and weaker demand in emerging markets dim prospects of an export-led recovery, and put greater weight on domestic demand to drive UK growth," it added.
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UK Halifax house price index Sept mm -0.9% vs +0.1% exp
Latest UK housing sector price indicator now out
Softer Halifax data flying in the face of a more upbeat report from its building society rival Nationwide that I reported last week
GBP similarly confused but cable down a tad to 1.5140
GBP/USD: Current Rebound Not Done Yet - UOB
GBP/USD low of 1.5130 yesterday held well above the major 1.5090 support, and the sharp recovery from the low appears incomplete and is expected to extend higher, notes UOB Group.
"A break above the recent highs near 1.5245/50 could lead to a move to 1.5275/80 but the major 1.5310 resistance is unlikely to come under threat for now," UOB adds.
"We continue to hold the view that the current rebound has room to extend to 1.5310 in the coming days. At this stage, it is too early to tell whether a sustained break above this level is likely," UOB projects.
GBP/USD climbs to 2-week highs on strong U.K. data
The pound climbed to two-week highs against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, boosted by the release of strong U.K. industrial production data, while demand for the greenback remained broadly under pressure.
GBP/USD hit 1.5308 during European morning trade, the pair's highest since September 23; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5301, gaining 0.48%.
Cable was likely to find support at 1.5137, Tuesday's low and resistance at 1.5369, the high of September 23.
The Office for National Statistics reported on Wednesday that U.K. industrial production rose 1.0% from a month earlier, well ahead of expectations for a 0.3% increase.
Industrial output rose 1.9% from a year earlier, compared to expectations for a 1.2% increase.
Manufacturing production was up 0.5% from a month earlier, the ONS said, but was down 0.8% on a year-over-year basis.
Meanwhile, the dollar remained under pressure by diminished expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year in the wake of last Fridays unexpectedly weak U.S. jobs report for September.
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