GBPUSD news - page 65
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GBP/USD: Sterling Launches its Fourth Session of Losses
Sterling remained under pressure from a stronger dollar for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, with the UK and US economic calendars offering little in the way of inspiration. Hence, the cable currency pair is likely to follow market sentiment.
The US dollar index hovered near two-week highs, while sterling fell from its monthly high of $1.5659 seen on September 18 to the current lows of $1.5342.
Weak Chinese manufacturing data released earlier today could further weaken mining and energy shares in the UK and possibly drag GBP further down.
The Caixin-Markit China Manufacturing PMI fell to a preliminary 47.0 in September from 47.3 last month, a fresh six-and-a-half-year low, raising fears over external Chinese demand.
On the US calendar, the US flash manufacturing PMI is due to be published while Federal Open Market Committee member and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will give a speech.
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GBP/USD: Sterling Picks Up After 4-Day Losing Streak
The UK's pound turned somewhat bullish on Thursday, trading at its daily highs of $1.5276. The UK economic calendar is empty today, but the US session will offer a number of data sets including durable goods orders, plus a speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen.
Following four consecutive sessions of losses, sterling started Thursday's session on a positive note, rising 0.26% to $1.5277.
The most eyed event of the week in terms of US macro releases will likely be durable goods orders data released simultaneously with jobless claims data, while the latest report on new home sales for August will follow later.
Durable goods orders are expected to decline by 2.3% in August, taking the opposite direction from 2% growth in the prior month. Core durable goods for 2015 have been abject, in negative territory for the period since January. Expectations for the August numbers are for a rise of 0.2%, down from the 0.6% seen in July.
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GBP/USD: Buck Loses Momentum as Yellen Spoils Solid Data
he cable was seen trading flat on Thursday afternoon after experiencing several intraday swings earlier today amid a busy macro morning in the US, while the economic calendar stayed silent in the UK.
Nevertheless, the British pound managed to halt its freefall which caused a huge loss over four big figures from the one-month high at $1.5659 seen on September 18.
In the afternoon, sterling edged 0.08% up to trade at $1.5250 against the buck, bouncing from an intraday and the monthly low at $1.5201 reached during the US market hours. Meanwhile, the US dollar index lost 0.48% to 95.92 points, stepping down from the six-week high at 96.72.
Data & Yellen in spotlight
Shortly before the US opening bell, durable goods orders dropped 2.0% month-to-month in August, slightly less than the anticipated drop of 2.3%, following an upwardly revised rise of 1.9% a month before.
On the upside, initial jobless claims showed another solid reading at 267,000 against the anticipation of 272,000, following 264,000 a week before.
However, most of the surprise came in the form of the buoyant new home sales in August as fresh data unveiled a steep 5.7% jump to 552,000 units, from a revised 522,000 booked in July. Meanwhile, analysts had anticipated a weaker hike of 1.6% to 515,000.
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GBP/USD: Sterling Remains Bearish, Awaits More Incentives
The UK's pound returned to bear markets on Friday, trading sideways in a choppy session on Friday. Sterling is likely to finish the week in losses.
Following 5 consecutive sessions of losses, sterling started Friday on a negative note, edging 0.11% to $1.5225.
The dollar gained support across the board after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that the US central bank is ready to hike rates at one of the next two meetings. The greenback is likely to drive the currency markets today, including cable.
"This statement understandably prompted a number of currencies to weaken as the prospects for continuing US dollar strength remained," Angus Nicholson from IG wrote on Friday.
The US session is anticipated with releases of US GDP, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment gauge and a services PMI gauge.
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GBP/USD forecast for the week of September 28, 2015
The GBP/USD pair broke down significantly during the course of the week on bearish pressure from the previous uptrend line. We broke down to the 1.20 level, and now it appears that if we can break down below the bottom of the range for the week, we should then reach towards the 1.50 level next, and then possibly as low as the 1.45 level. As far as buying is concerned, we are not interested in doing so from a longer-term perspective at this point, as the market certainly looks like it’s trying to roll over again.
Pound's Outlook Seen Brightening as Way Clear for BOE Rate Boost
The pound may arrest its slide against the euro because the Bank of England will increase interest rates much sooner than markets are predicting, according to BNP Paribas SA.
Sterling has weakened 1 percent against Europe’s single currency this month, extending the 3.8 percent drop in August that was its biggest slump in 2 1/2 years.
That’s set to change now Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has confirmed the U.S. is still on course to raise interest rates this year, said BNP Paribas analysts including global head of foreign-exchange strategy Steven Saywell. Yellen’s comments on Thursday reinvigorated speculation the BOE will follow suit with tighter policy and that the European Central Bank may expand quantitative easing.
“Market pricing for the Bank of England looks excessively dovish,” the analysts wrote in a Sept. 25 note to clients. “We expect the ECB to respond to a stronger euro with more easing, and see scope for euro-sterling to move lower.”
Forward contracts based on the sterling overnight index average, or Sonia, still suggest that a full quarter-point increase to the U.K.’s 0.5 percent official rate won’t come until November 2016.
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UK Preview: How Sustainable Is UK Economy Amid Current Headwinds?
Market expectations ahead of the final estimate of the UK's second-quarter GDP, due September 30, show 0.7% quarterly growth, up from 0.4% in the previous three months. While GDP growth rates have been comfortably above the pre-crisis levels since late 2013, the first data available for the third quarter show the economy remains poorly balanced, plus it has been slowing since the second half of this year.
The Bank of England (BoE) revised down its outlook for third-quarter growth by one tenth of a percentage point to 0.6%, while NIESR offered a bleaker estimate of just 0.5% growth, and NIESR estimates are often more accurate. According to the latest 'Forecast for the UK Economy', a survey of as many as twenty independent forecasters, gross domestic product in Britain should grow at the rate of 2.6% this year, before slowing to 2.5% in 2016.
The latest commercial surveys and official figures suggest the UK manufacturing sector continues to struggle with stronger sterling and cooling markets both in Europe and Asia. Britain's economy also remains poorly balanced, overly dependent on the robust services sector and domestic consumption, which in turn increases the risk to stability and sustainability of economic growth.
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GBP/USD: Pound Edges Higher, US Session in focus
Following a week of significant losses, the UK's pound consolidated somewhat on the upside in the early European session on Monday.
Sterling added 0.38% to $1.5230, but still off the levels near $1.56 seen one week ago.
Apart from a speech by the Bank of England's (BoE) John Cunliffe later in the day, the European schedule offers few incentives on Monday, investors will therefore eye the more relevant US session.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain in the headlines this week with nine Fed speakers scheduled to speak, including Chair Janet Yellen again, while the all-important non-farm payrolls report is due on Friday.
"Fed policy – and its impact on broader markets – will no doubt remain at the forefront of the markets’ mind," ANZ wrote in a research note on Monday.
On Monday, the Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans, John Williams of San Francisco, and William Dudley of the New York Fed are all due to speak on monetary policy, giving more insights about how consistent the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in its view of hiking rate
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UK Mortgage Lending Surges Most Since 2008
The number of mortgage approvals in the UK increased the most since January 2014 to 71,030 in August, above an upwardly revised 69,010 a month before, and above market expectations. Meanwhile, the net lending for house purchase rose by £3.4 billion - the highest level since May 2008, the Bank of England's (BoE) credit report showed on Tuesday.
August's mortgage approvals figure also compares to the BoE data series low of 26,700 approved during the crisis peak in November 2008, and a surge to 135,200 approved before the financial downturn in November 2003.
The survey also showed credit flowing to non-financial businesses also increased, with the value of loans to small and medium-sized businesses rising by £0.3 billion, which the BoE said was in line with the average over the previous six months.
According to the British Banking Association (BBA), UK-based high-street lenders approved 46,743 loans for house purchases in August, which was slightly above the level of 46,315 seen in July, but less than estimated.
The Council of Mortgage Providers' (CML) latest surveys showed the number of mortgage approvals saw the third consecutive month-on-month growth by volume and by value in July, rising to 67,800. This was 7.4% above the previous month, and up 4.8% over the year to July.
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UK GDP Preview: Economy Seen Floating Through Current Headwinds
Market expectations ahead of the final estimate of the UK's second-quarter GDP due on Wednesday show a confirmed 0.7% quarterly growth, up from 0.4% in the previous three months. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is releasing the final estimate on Wednesday.
While GDP growth rates have been comfortably above the pre-crisis levels since late 2013, the first data available for the third quarter show the economy remains poorly balanced, plus it has been slowing since the second half of this year.
The Bank of England (BoE) revised down its outlook for third-quarter growth by one tenth of a percentage point to 0.6%, while NIESR offered a bleaker estimate of just 0.5% growth, and NIESR estimates are often more accurate. According to the latest 'Forecast for the UK Economy', a survey of as many as twenty independent forecasters, gross domestic product in Britain should grow at the rate of 2.6% this year, before slowing to 2.5% in 2016.
The latest commercial surveys and official figures suggest the UK manufacturing sector continues to struggle with stronger sterling and cooling markets, while the overall economy remains poorly balanced, overly dependent on the robust services sector and domestic consumption.
read more