Daily Market Analysis by FXNET
Daily Market Analysis by FXNET - USD/JPY Trades Below 100
The US dollar slid against the yen during a quiet Asian session today, trading below the key 100 yen level and touching a low of 99.56 before steadying at 99.80 by the end of the session.
Much of the reason behind the slide is due to profit taking as market participants are unwilling to take the USDJPY pair too high as there are expectations of continued quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, which tends to have a weakening effect on the dollar.
The euro remains resilient despite the long-run uncertainties surrounding the economic and financial health of the region. EURUSD continues to trade above the key $1.35 handle, hitting a high of $1.3522 in the Asian session today. Euro reached as high as $1.3540 yesterday.
Sterling traded an extremely tight range against the dollar, between $1.6098 and $1.6123.
There weren’t many surprises from the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting released today from the meeting two weeks ago. The assessment of the economy in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting minutes was relatively upbeat but did reiterate the value of the AUD is still too high.
The optimism on the Australian economy and a broadly weaker US dollar helped lift aussie, with AUDUSD rising to $0.9430.
Daily Market Analysis by FXNET - Euro Hits 4-Year High Against Yen
The euro hit a four-year high against the yen this morning, rising to 135.93, the highest since October 2009. What contributed to the yen’s weakness was data showing Japan’s trade deficit widened more than expected in October.
Forecasts were for 1.091 trillion yen compared to a forecast of 814 billion yen trade deficit. Meanwhile, focus is on the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting.
The euro also rose against the dollar, peaking at $1.3576 after the dollar was hurt by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke who signaled that the Fed was committed to highly accommodative policies.
Bernanke said the Fed’s main interest rate will probably remain near zero for a “considerable time” after asset purchases end.
The dollar lost 0.1 percent against the yen to fall to 100 yen from the Asian open of 100.12 yen.
Looking ahead, the will be some key US data releases later today, with market focus turning to the FOMC minutes as well as US retail sales. Also, the Bank of England policy meeting minutes will be released.
Dollar Struggles At 100 Yen Level, Focus Is Now On FOMC - FXNET Analysis
Focus is on the FOMC minutes that are due later this evening, which will be a key driver of the US dollar. During the European session the dollar was mixed, as markets digested yesterday’s comments by Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke who reiterated the Fed’s continued stimulus program was here to stay.
The euro was flat against the dollar on minor news flow today, but eased off the Asian session highs of $1.3576 to fall to the $1.3520 area where it steadied. German PPI unexpectedly fell today by 0.2% month-over-month.
Sterling remained strong after the Bank of England minutes which showed no surprises and had an upbeat assessment of the UK economy, particularly with respect to economic growth during the second half of the year. GBPUSD climbed as high as $1.6160.
The yen was steadier in the European session as USDJPY struggled to break sustainably above the key level of 100 yen, but traded well within yesterday’s range. Earlier in the Asian session the yen was weighed down by data showing widening Japan’s trade deficit.
EURJPY hit a four-year high of 135.93 as a result of this data, but eased down to the 135 yen level in the European session.
The Australian dollar was weak on a deteriorating fiscal outlook as well as due to global growth concerns. AUDUSD fell to $0.9364. Focus will turn to RBA Governor Stevens who speaks on Thursday at 4:05am EST.
Yen Tumbles To Lowest In 4-Months Against The US Dollar - FXNET Market Analysis
The yen dropped to its weakest level in four months versus the broadly stronger US dollar in today’s Asian session.
USDJPY hit a session high of 100.80 yen and ended the session with a 0.6% gain at 100.70 yen.
The diverging monetary policies between the Bank of Japan and the Fed are causing a wider gap between US bond yields and Japanese JGB yields and hence a higher dollar versus yen.
The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged during its meeting today while the Fed last night signaled it could scale back stimulus as soon as the next meeting.
The euro is under pressure due to market rumors of the ECB is considering negative deposit rates. The broadly stronger dollar is also putting pressure on the euro.
EURUSD fell to a low of 1.3412 in the Asian session, and ended with a 0.06% loss at 1.3428. GBPUSD ended the session down 0.08% at 1.6089.
The Australian dollar took a beating after disappointing data from China, which is Australia’s largest trading partner. AUDUSD closed the Asian session with a 0.2% loss at 0.9304.
The Chinese HSBC manufacturing flash PMI index of business confidence for November dipped to 50.4 compared to 50.9 the previous month.
USD/JPY Climbed Its Way Up To A New 4-Month High
USDJPY was driven to a new four-month high of 100.92 yen by mid-European session trading, its highest since July 10. EURJPY also rose, peaking at 135.87 yen, just below a four-year high hit yesterday.
The dollar was boosted by Wednesday’s Fed minutes which were upbeat on the US economy and suggested that trimming the pace of bond buying was possible in the coming months. There are some expectations for tapering as soon as the December meeting.
An already bullish dollar/yen was lifted higher today as a result of a broadly weaker yen, which fell after the Bank of Japan minutes today, in which the BOJ reiterated the view that it will continue with policy easing.
The euro was supported by comments from ECB Chief Mario Draghi today who eased fears of an imminent negative deposit rate cut. This helped the euro bounce from lows of1.3398 reached early in the European session when it was pressured by weak Eurozone PMI data. EURUSD rose to a high of 1.3476 by the end of the session.
Sterling jumped higher on strong UK factory data. The Confederation of British Industry’s monthly industrial trends index shows a rise to the highest level in 18 years. GBPUSD rose to a high of 1.6140 while GBPJPY hit a new four-year high of 162.73.
In the upcoming US session focus will turn to US jobless claims data and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.
Yen Hits 4-Year Low Versus Euro After BOJ Governor’s Speech - FXNET Daily Analysis
The yen remained under pressure in Friday’s Asian session after being pushed lower by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda who appeared before the Japanese “Diet Committee” to talk about monetary policy.
He reiterated the Bank of Japan’s commitment to undertake necessary policies to fight deflation. Such policies tend to have a weakening effect on the yen.
The yen fell to a four-year low against the euro in early Asian session trading, and touched a four-month low versus the US dollar. EURJPY hit a session high of 136.54 yen before ending the session at 136.19 while USDJPY peaked at 101.34.
The dollar is expected to remain firm against the yen due to expectations of Fed tapering early next year, and maybe even sooner. Helping boost dollar against yen was Thursday’s US jobless claims data which surprisingly fell by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000, beating expectations for a decline of 9,000.
EURUSD traded in a range in Asia between $1.3462 and $1.3488, held steady after comments by ECB Chief Mario Draghi’s who dampened prospects of negative interest rates when he spoke yesterday. Draghi will be speaking again today so markets will be watching closely.
GBPUSD hit a high of 1.6204 in Asia, supported by Thursday’s strong UK factory orders data.
The Aussie extended lower today to $0.9166 after yesterday’s sell-off was initiated by comments from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens. He said yesterday that he was open to currency intervention to weaken what he believes is a high Australian dollar exchange rate.
EUR/JPY Hits A New 4-Year High - FXNET Daily Market Analysis
The dollar remains bullish against the yen, while the euro hit a new four-year high against the Japanese currency in today’s Asian session.
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda kept markets speculation that the yen will weaken over time as the BOJ continues with its aggressive monetary easing policy and asset purchase program which is aimed at fighting deflation in Japan.
The euro climbed to a high of 137.97 yen in the early Asian session while the dollar pushed past Friday's high and climbed to 101.90 yen, the highest since May 29.
The increasingly diverging monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will help keep the dollar/yen’s upward momentum.
Against the dollar, the euro hit a high of $1.3559 before declining slightly on profit taking to $1.3539. The euro has made a substantial recovery from last week’s tumble to $1.3398, caused by rumours of negative interest rates from the European Central Bank. These rumours have since been downplayed by ECB Chief Mario Draghi.
The British pound remained above the key $1.62 level, with GBPUSD hitting an early session high of $1.6239.
The Aussie slid lower to a new 2-1/2 low of $0.9120 as it remains under pressure by the threat of intervention from the Reserve Bank of Australia after comments from Governor Stevens last week who said he is “open-minded” about such a move as he believes the AUD is overvalued compared with fundamentals.
Euro Slides From A 4-Year High Against The Japanese Yen - FXNET Daily Market Analysis
The US dollar is broadly stronger against its major G10 counterparts on Monday while the yen remains weak as a result of a sell-off due to outflows from safe havens like itself.
The more risk-on market sentiment today was boosted by a deal reached over the weekend to curtail Iran’s nuclear program. Also keeping the Japanese currency under pressure is expectation for further weakening in the currency due to the Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary policies, which BOJ Governor reiterated the central banks easy monetary policies to fight deflation.
The dollar reached a six-month high of 101.90 against the yen in early Asia but eased back slightly on profit taking in the European session to end at 101.80 yen.
EURUSD traded at 1.3518 after falling from the open and is down over 0.2% by the end of the European session. The euro was knocked down today partly due to ECB policymaker Hansson making remarks on various policy tools that remain available to fight disinflationary pressures, bringing back to the spotlight concerns over negative interest rates.
The euro peaked at a new four-year high of 137.97 against the yen early in the Europe trade before slipping 0.15% to 137.71.
Sterling is weaker today, with GBPUSD slipping 0.2% to $1.6165 as focus turns to the outlook for Bank of England policy.
Yen Up Against Dollar After Weak US Data - FXNET DAILY MARKET NEWS
The yen was supported by safe haven demand today after the release of a slightly dovish Bank of Japan policy meeting minutes. The minute from last week’s meeting showed some concern about Japan’s economic outlook and whether the central bank’s 2% inflation target could be met.
Meanwhile, soft US housing data weighed on the dollar, which also helped the yen gain against it. Data released in the US session on Monday showed US pending home sales fell to a 10-month low in October.
The yen paused its decline against the dollar and rebounded off a six-month low to trade at 101.32 per dollar in Asia today.
The yen also gained against the euro and moved off a 4-year low hit on Monday to end the Asian session today at 137.36 per euro.
The euro eked out some against the dollar and shrugged off concerns of possible negative interest rates as hinted by ECB policymakers on Monday. The euro rose to $1.3527 in Asia today compared to Monday’s drop to $1.3489.
Sterling was little changed against the dollar in the Asian session , trading at 1.6152 as markets wait on the sidelines for Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech today, hoping to get an insight on monetary policy and the UK economic outlook.
Fxnet Technical Analysis On Major Currencies & Commodities
EUR/USD - European Session:
The pair is trading weakly and in a limited range below the previously broken bullish harmonic support and below the first target of the AB=CD bearish harmonic Pattern. Therefore, the bearish possibility is still valid supported by Stochastic. Breaking 1.3465 levels and stabilize below it is significant to prove the negative outlook.
Support
1.3505
1.3470
1.3420
1.3400
1.3385
Resistance
1.3555
1.3580
1.3610
1.3660
1.3700
Recommendation
Based on the above, sell the pair below 1.3530 targeting 1.3500, 1.3470 then 1.3420 and stop-loss at four-hour closing above 1.3555
GBP/USD - European Session:
The pair dropped yesterday affected by the bearish harmonic Crab Pattern and the negative momentum showing on Stochastic. The pair has to stabilize below 1.6100 to prove extending the downside move,as 13% correction of CD Leg represents an intraday interval of extending the downside move today. Breaching 1.6265 could fail our expectations, but we will count today on 1.6225 levels to keep our negative expectations.
Support
1.6100
1.6070
1.6030
1.6000
1.5985
Resistance
1.6170
1.6225
1.6265
1.6305
1.6340
Recommendation
Based on the above, sell the pair below 1.6150 targeting 1.6100, 1.6070 and 1.6000, stop-loss at four-hour closing above 1.6225
USD/JPY - European Session:
The pair dropped yesterday but remained limited above Linear Regression Indicators and around the previous top 101.53. Therefore, the possibility of an upside move is still valid and trading above 100.60 will keep this possibility valid.
Support
101.50
101.15
101.00
100.60
100.30
Resistance
102.00
102.50
102.80
103.10
103.50
Recommendation
Based on the above, buy the pair above 101.55 targeting 102.00, 102.50 then 102.80 and stop-loss at four-hour closing below 100.60
EUR/JPY - European Session:
The pair is trading sideways as shown on graph and failed in breaking 137.05 yesterday, keeping us neutral waiting for confirmation with a breakout below the mentioned support or a breach above 138.00 resistance. The breakout below 137.05 will extend bearishness towards 135.50 while a breach of 138.00 will extend gains towards 140.00.
**Trading range expected today is between the key support at 136.00 and key resistance at 139.00
Support
137.05
136.45
135.50
134.80
134.10
Resistance
138.00
138.65
139.00
139.50
140.00
Recommendation
We remain neutral observing the pair around 138.00 resistance and 137.05 support
GOLD - European Session:
http://www.fxnet.com/media/documents/gold-technical-analysis-26nov2013.png
Gold rebounded higher, as price failed to settle below the 78.6 retracement level and the descending support shown on chart, forming a strong bullish candle, settling back above 1252.00 previous swing low. Accordingly, we reverse our view from bearish to bullish over intraday basis.
** Short term Trend (Trends that last from two weeks to two months)
** Chart is based on GMT+2 timing
Notes:
*if price reaches within 20% from target before triggering entry, signal is canceled and not valid anymore.
*Support and Resistance levels should be treated as regions not precise numbers
**This analysis follows a discretionary approach(opposed to rule based), and thus outlook and views shall change regularly according to latest price input.
Support
1252.00
1240.00
1235.00
1220.00
1210.00
Resistance
1261.00
1270.00
1280.00
1290.00
1295.00
Recommendation
Long above 1246.00, targets at 1252.00,1261.00 and 1280.00. Stop loss below 1235.00
SILVER - European Session:
http://www.fxnet.com/media/documents/silver-technical-analysis-26nov2013.png
Silver formed a bullish engulfing candle stick formation yesterday, threatening for an upside rebound, however price remains below the key broken support at 20.50-20.60 area, and accordingly, the conflicting technical position forces us to move to the sidelines for now, awaiting a clearer signal.
** Short term Trend (Trends that last from two weeks to two months)
** Chart is based on GMT+2 timing
Notes:
*if price reaches within 20% from target before triggering entry, signal is canceled and not valid anymore.
*Support and Resistance levels should be treated as regions not precise numbers
**This analysis follows a discretionary approach(opposed to rule based), and thus outlook and views shall change regularly according to latest price input.
Support
20.00
19.50
19.20
19.00
18.70
Resistance
20.25
20.60
20.85
21.05
21.50
Recommendation
Neutral
Crude OIL - European Session:
http://www.fxnet.com/media/documents/crudeoil-technical-analysis-26nov2013.png
WTI Crude Oil failed to maintain the bearish bias, bounced higher yesterday and starts the trading session higher, settling at the middle of the sideways consolidation. Accordingly, we prefer to move to the sidelines this morning. A breakout of this consolidation phase will confirm the next potential move.
** Short term Trend (Trends that last from two weeks to two months)
** Chart is based on GMT+2 timing
Notes:
*if price reaches within 20% from target before triggering entry, signal is canceled and not valid anymore.
*Support and Resistance levels should be treated as regions not precise numbers
**This analysis follows a discretionary approach(opposed to rule based), and thus outlook and views shall change regularly according to latest price input.
Support
94.50
94.15
93.65
93.30
93.00
Resistance
94.70
95.00
95.50
96.00
96.65
Recommendation
Neutral
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
You agree to website policy and terms of use
Market sentiment remains positive as it is still being characterized by the loose monetary policies of the world’s major central banks – Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan.
Last week, the Fed President nominee Janet Yellen signaled she will continue the Fed’s stimulus program, which helped keep risk appetite supported.
Most major currency pairs traded in familiar ranges, with the riskier currencies holding on to gains from the risk rally produced at the end of last week.
Sterling carved a new two-week high in Asia today, with GBPUSD hitting a session high of $1.6141, while the euro breached a key level of $1.3500, peaking at $1.3506 before steadying at $1.3490.
The dollar/yen pair is the main currency in focus after it broke above the key psychological level of 100 yen last week. USDJPY eased back down today but found support at this level, after opening in Asian at 100.25 yen.
The yen is expected to weaken further based on the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies. There are a couple of key releases from Japan this week, including trade balance and the BoJ meeting, both of which will be key drivers for the Japanese currency.
Aussie was the biggest mover in Asia this morning, with AUDUSD rising to a high of $0.9412, gaining 0.4% percent.