How To Track The Economy Now That The Government Has Stopped Publishing Data
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The government has entered into shutdown for the first time in 17 years.
As a result, regular economic data releases put out by the Department of Labor and the Commerce Department — for example, the monthly nonfarm payrolls report — won't be released.
A lot of the datapoints that economy watchers follow these days, however, are put out by private firms, so investors will still be able to piece together a reasonable picture of how economic growth is progressing, even though the government has shut down.
The most-anticipated government-released report in the coming days is the monthly nonfarm payrolls (a.k.a. "jobs") report, which is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday.
On Wednesday, we get payroll-processing firm ADP's estimate of the change in total private-sector payrolls in September.
"The ADP report has improved significantly as a forecasting input for private payrolls over the past year," says Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Joe LaVorgna. "Therefore, in the event that the employment report is delayed, we will be comfortable relying on the ADP series as a close proxy of September hiring."
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release two economic datapoints this week: August construction spending, which was due out this morning, and August factory orders, to be released Thursday.
While there may not be a particularly close analogue for construction spending in private-sector data releases, investors can arguably look at a host of non-government data releases to get a feel for the pace of U.S. manufacturing growth while the government remains shut down.
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