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The July statement from the FOMC presented the following snapshot of the economy, "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months..." but as Stone McCarthy notes, tomorrow's FOMC post-meeting statement could well be less upbeat in tone, with hints of a slowing in the pace of improvements in the labor market, housing, consumer and business spending, and inflation remaining well below the 2% goal. A look at the housing and spending data certainly raises eyebrows but it is clear that the Fed remains cornered by deficits, sentiment, technicals, and international ire.
What Is The Fed Watching? Spending and Housing (via Stone McCarthy),
The August data on retail and food sales was a little below expectations, and its main strength was in sales of motor vehicles. On a month-over-month basis, retail sales seem to have faded over the course of the summer along with consumer confidence, but some of the softness in August may be due to slow back-to-school shopping in a few categories. There has been a shift as purchases for students in August are more about ticking the checkboxes for necessary school supplies. More discretionary items -- like clothing -- are waiting for September. The underlying trend for retail spending seems fairly stable, and for steady gains.
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