Daily Forex Technical Analysis - page 3

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Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013.09.09

The currency pair drew support line at 1.3104 and bounced up to falling trend line cap at 1.3186. Negative structure prevails following a reversal pattern formation earlier with SMAs also remaining above prices.MACD is below zero confirming down trend and at the same time OsMA is approaching previous peaks area coupled with Stochastic entering its overbought zone suggesting that recent retracement is coming to an end. Thus, combining down trend line with overbought oscillators we consider chances are favoring resumption of the downside, falling initially to 1.3135 and then to 1.3104.

 

Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013.09.10

Upside development prevails in the currency pair as indicated by the surging line. Positive bias is also reinforced by 50 SMA crossing from below both 100 and 200 SMA, in addition the pair has recently successfully breached key resistance at 0.9236 increasing its bullish strength.However, we are concerned about the Stochastic and RSI (14) being in the overbought zones since chances for further highs are reduced coupled by upper Bollinger band placing a lid around 0.9314. We therefore consider in the intraday prices are more likely to extend into sideways between 0.9288/0.9236 range.

 

Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013.09.11

Bullish momentum drove the currency pair to almost 3-month peak at 1.5754 with prices today consolidating near that key cap. Positive structure dominates in the daily chart suggesting continuation to higher levels. In addition, SMAs are below prices and the Bollinger band does not set any upside hurdle.Looking at the oscillators the RSI (14) is rising since upside development initiated early in July from support at 1.4832, Stochastic just entered overbought but there is still some room to previous peaks line at 84.Therefore we consider that the British pound against the US dollar has good chances to breach 1.5754 and we would likely follow the brake, although we are cautious ahead of employment report.

 

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013.09.12

The currency pair dropped almost to key support at 99.13, below surging trend line but then quickly returned above that line forming a lower side shadow indicating bearish weakness. Thus, the uptrend remains valid and prices have reached a key support that could reverse the corrective attitude.Looking at the Oscillators the MACD is still positive although OsMA dropped below zero and still has room for lower levels, that applies as well for the Momentum(7) which is bearish without providing any contrarian signal.Therefore, we consider the uptrend line or the support at 99.13 could hold bearish bias and we would expect prices then to extend into 100.00/99.13 tight range.

 

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013.09.13

The currency pair declined to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.9169 to 0.9453, at 0.9277 and then bounced above the 100 and 200 SMA suggesting that recent downside is a corrective move. In addition, support at 0.9277 is located at the previous double bottom reversal that shifted trend upward.Looking at the oscillators MACD is below zero suggesting the uptrend is weak, however OsMA is positive and rising, an early indication that bullish momentum could resume. We consider therefore that prices could retest resistance at 0.9343 and is very likely to move higher towards 0.9372.

 

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013.09.16

The currency pair continued its downside momentum and almost reached support at 1.0277. Prices are now below 50 and 100 SMA increasing chances for lower levels, in addition support at 1.0242 represents the neckline of a swing reversal in the longer term trend.Looking at the oscillators, Stochastic has entered in the oversold zone suggesting the upside correction is imminent. Although, MACD is negative and Average Directional Index indicates that downtrend prevails.Therefore we would expect bearish momentum to continue in the immediate term but we consider the support at 1.0242 would hold any attempt to dip lower.

 

Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013.09.17

Upside resumption drove the currency pair to drew resistance line at 1.3386 slightly below the 7-month high at 1.3450. Prices are above the 10, 20 and 50 SMA suggesting bulls are stronger than otherwise.Looking at the oscillators, MACD just crossed the zero line indicating uptrend is gaining chances, however the Average Directional Index is below 25 line concluding that any trend is weak. Lastly, the Commodity Channel Index rose above 100 and still has room for peak at 175, meaning that the positive structure may rise further.Therefore we would expect the EURUSD to advance towards 1.3450 before it makes any correction weighed by key resistance and upper Bollinger band.

 

Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013.09.18

The currency pair has been neutral in near term, extending in the last trading sessions in 0.9386/0.9284 sideways area. Nevertheless, in the longer term is in an uptrend as indicated by the surging trend line and above the SMAs, who are currently providing natural downside hurdles.Looking at the oscillators we get mixed signals, firstly Stochastic rose earlier this week in overbought zone providing some contrarian signal but the MACD and RSI (14) are not so revealing. We consider that the AUDUSD would continue its steady formation and we are currently limiting our trading position ahead of FOMC.

 

Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013.09.19

The currency pair sharply moved higher on Fed’s decision to keep asset purchases unchanged. Interestingly, even though fundamental developments triggered upside wave, prices found resistance at a technical level at 261.8% Fibonacci extension of 1.5715 to 1.5432, at 1.6164 and is now entering in corrective mood. In addition, the uptrend remains firm as indicated by the surging line.

Overbought oscillators, like RSI (14) that went up to 80 and Stochastic climbing above previous peaks line at 85, are suggesting that prices are more likely to retrace. Therefore we would expect a corrective dive towards 1.5885 in the following trading sessions.

 

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013.09.20

Downside bias is strong in the pair’s daily pattern and already dropped at support at 0.9084, breaching lower Bollinger Band. In addition, SMAs are above prices coupled by a steep falling trend line favoring further weakness. However, we must keep in mind that this sharp downward move was a result of Fed’s decision not to tighten monetary policy meaning that US dollar's weakness could not be sustainable, unless more negative news for US dollar come out.Looking at oscillators, we can easily observe that Stochastic and Williams are oversold. Therefore in our view the USDCHF is likely to make a correction towards 0.9149 or even higher and then we would reconsider our projection for the market.

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