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EUR/USD: the pair will return to the descending channel Current trend At the beginning of the week European currency was growing despite negative macro-economic statistics of Eurozone. AS investors did not fear the possibility of further monetary policy easing and reduction of the interest rates, the demand for the risky assets continued to grow. Today the pair is traded at the level of 1.3690. Market participants are waiting for the business activity index in the US manufacturing sector and the speech of the US Minister of Treasury, Mr. Jacob Lew. Tomorrow GDP of EU will become known, which may affect the movement in the pair. Support and resistance It is likely that following significant growth the pair will undergo the downward correction to the level of 1.3600. After that the pair will start to go down to the local lows and key support levels of 1.3520 and 1.3470. In the medium-term the pair may fall to the level of 1.3300. Support levels: 1.3660, 1.3600, 1.3520, 1.3470, 1.3400 and 1.3300. Resistance levels: 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900, 1.3960 and 1.4000. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions and pending short positions from the levels of 1.3720 and 1.3770 and take profit at the level of 1.3520 (1.3300).
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of Brent Brent, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, and they are both almost horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. Regardless numerous corrections, crude oil Brent continue to fall. Tenkan-sen line is the closest resistance level (112.30). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 109.77.
Brent, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, and the price is stuck between them. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is still ascending. Horizontal Kijun-sen line is a strong support level (111.70). Tenkan-sen line is a resistance level (1.6805).
Key levels Support levels: 111.70, 109.77. Resistance levels: 112.30, 113.70. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see a downward trend, on the daily chart — the beginning of trend reversal. Sell positions can be opened below 111.70 with targets at 109.77. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: how high can the Pound climb? Current trend Steady growth of the British currency against the USD is slowing down. At the beginning of the week the pair gained over 100 points amid favourable statistics on the British PMI. Additional support to the pair was provided by the negative data on the key US indices. Today the pair continues to go up by inertia and due to support from the positive data on the British construction sector. However, it is worth noting that despite positive fundamental data the pair is not moving up very quickly, which means that in the near future the pair may undergo correction. Economic calendar shows that today the data on US manufacturing orders will be known, which is expected to be negative, and Janet Yellen will make a speech. If her speech will be pessimistic, the pair GBP/USD can go to the levels of 1.7200 and 1.7250 and then will undergo the correction with the target of 1.7060. In the medium-term the pair is likely to continue the rise to the target level of 1.7300, especially, if the Bank of England launches monetary policy tightening or the rise of the key interest rates. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.7150, 1.7060, 1.7000, 1.6850 and 1.6810. Resistance levels: 1.7200, 1.7250, 1.7300 and 1.7360. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to trade in accordance with the trend, placing pending buy orders from the levels of 1.7060 and 1.7000 with taking profit at the level of 1.7300.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend European currency is slowly going down against the USD. The price of Euro failed to consolidate above Murray level of 0/8 (1.3672) and fell to1.3653. The data on the retails sales in EU, which was released today, did not have significant impact on the movement in the pair; the index amounted to 0% against expectations of 0.3%. Business activity index in Europe reached the level of 52.8 points, which was expected. Today, traders do not rush to open positions prior to the meeting of ECB, where changes in the interest rates will be announced. Some experts believe that the regulator can reduce key interest rate in order to launch the program to combat inflation. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is 0/8 Murray (1.3672). Support level is 1.3550 (1/8 Murray). Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 1.3672 with protective orders at 1.3620 and the target of 1.3794.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD XAU/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The pair has been corrected down to the blue line, which remains a support level (1321.19). Tenkan-sen line is a resistance level (1325.63).
XAU/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. The pair is trying to leave the cloud; however, the upper border won’t let it. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. Tenkan-sen line is the closest support level (1319.14). If the pair is able to consolidate above the cloud, next resistance level will be at one of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span (1334.65).
Key levels Support levels: 1321.19, 1319.14. Resistance levels: 1325.63, 1334.65. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see the beginning of trend reversal. However, short trades shouldn’t be opened unless we’ve got a confirmation signal. The cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines or the cross of the price chart and Chinkou Span line would be such signal. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: analysis and forecast Current trend Following the release of the business activity index of Japan, the pair went up above the level of 101.65 and continued to rise aiming at reaching the level of 102.00. Investors expected that the US labour market data would be positive and their projections proved to be correct, which helped the pair to go above the level of 102.00. As it became known, in June the number of new jobs outside agricultural sector increased by 288 000 thousand against the forecast of 215 000, while unemployment rate fell from 6.3% to 6.1%. American economy continues to recover, which is a favourable momentum for the pair USD/JPY. Earlier this week the pair broke down resistance level of 102.00 and reached the level of 102.25. However, at the Asian session today the pair had corrected to support level of 102.00, which prevented further decline in the pair. Today the market is going to be sluggish due to Independence Day in the USA. It is likely that the pair will move in the narrow range above the level of 102.00. Support and resistance The nearest support level is 102.00, which is also the key level of the “bears”. Next support levels will be 101.90, 101.80 and 101.65. Resistance levels: 102.20, 102.25 and 102.35. Trading tips Short positions are recommended after breakdown of the level of 102.00 with the target of 101.30. Buy positions can be opened after consolidation of the price above the level of 102.25.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: USD is regaining positions, while investors’ interest to Euro is decreasing Current trend As expected, at the beginning of last week the pair had pushed off from the upper limit of the downward channel and went up, losing over 100 points. The pair was affected by the poor macro-economic statistics of the major European economics, including the decline in the retail sales of Germany. At the same time the USD is slowly strengthening with the help of support of the US labour market statistics. Some key European events will be held today, including a speech of the chairman of European Central Bank, Mr. Mario Draghi and the meeting of European Group. Support and resistance It is likely that the pair will continue to decline and will again reach the local lows of 1.3500. After breakdown of this level the pair will go down to support levels of 1.3470 and 1.3400. In the medium-term the pair may fall to the target level of 1.3300. Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3520, 1.3470, 1.3400 and 1.3300. Resistance levels: 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900, 1.3960 and 1.4000. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short and pending short positions from the levels of 1.3660 and 1.3720 and take profit at the level of 1.3300.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD USD/CAD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are almost merged and can soon form trend reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair was trying to overcome Tenkan-sen (1.0648) and Kijun-sen (1.0650) lines but still remains below them. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.0623.
USD/CAD, D1 At the daily Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is still descending. Tenkan-sen line remains resistance level at 1.0686. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.0584.
Key levels Support levels: 1.0623, 1.0584. Resistance levels: 1.0650, 1.0686. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the rise of the pair is blocked by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines? The pair will probably continue to fall. Targets for the short positions are 1.0623 and 1.0584. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: only drastic measures of the Bank of England can provoke the rise in the pair Current trend Last week the pair traded in the narrow sideways channel of 1.7170-1.7100. Today the British currency was under pressure from negative data on industrial output and the volume of industrial output in the manufacturing sector. Contrary to experts’ expectation of the rise, the indices significantly declined. The pair GBP/USD went down and consolidated near support level of 1.7100. Today the volume of consumer lending in the USA will become known and a member of Open Market Committee of the US Fed Mr. Kocharloct will give a speech. It is worth noting that the USD started to regain slowly, as well as US economy as a whole, which followed after the disastrous results in Q1. However, the decisions of the Bank of England will act an important part in the fight between the Pound and the USD. On Thursday the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and the decision on the program of assets purchase. Mark Carney will make his comments and any hint on monetary tightening or the increase of the rates will provide huge support to the British currency. In the medium-term the pair is likely to continue ascending movement with the target level of 1.7300. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.7100, 1.7000, 1.6920, 1.6850, 1.6810 and 1.6780. Resistance levels: 1.7150, 1.7170, 1.7200, 1.7250 and 1.7300. Trading tips It is recommended to place long and pending long positions from the level of 1.7000 and take profit at the level of 1.7300.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/CHF: analysis and forecast Current trend The currency pair USD/CHF started this week with the decline to the level of 0.8928. The pair is undergoing this downward correction due to the positive data on the American labour market for June. The Franc was also supported by the data on the decline of industrial output in Germany by 1.8% in May. The decline of this important index caused the increase in purchases of Swiss Franc, which acts as a safe-haven currency. Today the price of USD/CHF started to grow again, due to weak data on retail sales in Switzerland. The index fell by 0.6% in May. Support and resistance At the moment the price is slowly growing, moving along the moving average line of the “Bollinger bands” indicator. It is possible that the price can go up the level of 0.8960 today. If the middle average line is broken down, the pair may undergo downward correction to the level of 0.8910. Technical indicators confirm probability of the rise in price. Bollinger bands are rising. MACD indicator is in the positive zone, its volumes are stable. Stochastic lines have left oversold zone and formed a buy signal. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions from the level of 0.8945 with the target of 0.8960. Short positions with taking profit at the level of 0.8910 can be opened if the price breaks down the level of 0.8935.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited