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EUR/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend This week the pair has been trading within a range of 60 points. Today it dropped down to the level of 1.3515 due to the negative macroeconomic data from Great Britain. UK Trading Balance and Industrial Production index appeared to be lower than expected. However the strengthening of the Dollar won’t last long because of the budget crisis in USA. Market players have lost their faith in American economy; as a result the return of 1 month US treasury bills has increased considerably. Investors are afraid the negotiations will be postponed. Support and resistance The pair is trading under the lower MA of the Bollinger Bands indicator, showing the possibility of an upward correction towards middle MA (1.3560). The continuation of the fall down to the level of 1.3460 is also possible. The later possibility is confirmed by the MACD and Stochastic indicators. MАСD histogram moved to negative zone, and Stochastic lines are in overbought zone. Trading tips Short positions can be opened after the consolidation of the price under the level of 1.3515. Profit should be taken at the level of 1.3460. Short-term long trades can be opened at the level of 1.3535 with targets at 1.3560.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
NZD/USD: technical analysis Current trend Last month the pair reached local highs, which was caused by sharp decline in the USD; however, at the moment the pair is trading in the sideways channel near the level of 0.8300. The four-hour chart shows that the pattern pendant has been formed and breakdown of this pattern will allow the price to go up to the level of 0.8400 or higher. Nevertheless, technical indicators show that sideways trend will continue. Support and resistance The nearest support level is 0.8270, which coincides with the level of 23.6% Fibonacci. Next support levels are 0.8250, 08200 and 0.8150. Resistance levels:08.335, 0.8390 and 08435. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions below the level of 0.8270 with the target in the range of 0.8200-0.8150. Long positions are advisable above the level of 0.8335.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
USD/CAD: technical analysis Current trend Daily chart demonstrates downward channel, in which the pair has been traded since the beginning of the summer. Since the end of last month quotes has been rising towards the upper limit of the channel as part of downward correction. The pair is experiencing pressure from the level of 50.0% (1.0370), which is located near the upper moving average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. MACD indicator suggests that it is still early to close long positions: the signal line is outside histogram in the negative zone. Therefore, based on the technical indicators we can conclude that ascending movement will continue up to local highs of 1.0446. This level can become a pivot points from which the price will go down. Support and resistance Resistance is at the levels of correction 1.0370 and 1.0414. The pair is supported by the levels of 1.0325 and 1.0270. Trading tips In case of breakdown of the level of 1.0370, it makes sense to buy and place orders “Take Profit” at the level of 1.0446. As an alternative scenario we can consider the decline to the line 1.0270.
Kamil Avad Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
AUD/USD: Yellen’s appointment made the pair fall Current trend This week the pair has been trading within the range of 0.9483-0.9386. Today however the “aussi” experienced high volatility of the market and hit local highs at 0.9471. The rise was caused by the favourable releases of unemployment data in Australia. Inevitable decrease down to the level of 0.9387 followed the rise. The Dollar was strengthened due to the Janet Yellen’s appointment as a new Head of FRS of USA. Investors hope that new Head will at last cancel the quantitive easing programs. Meanwhile the Dollar is still under pressure of the US budget crisis, and Australian currency has all the chances to regain its positions. Support and resistance The pair is trading now around key level of 0.9430 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands indicator). If the price consolidates above this level the pair will go all the way up to the levels of 0.9470 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands) and 0.9515. Otherwise the fall down to the level of 0.9395 is probable. Technical indicators give us controversial signals. MACD histogram is in overbought zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines can soon cross and reverse upwards, giving a signal to buy. Trading tips Regarding the situation it is recommended to open long trades at 0.9440 with targets at 0.9515. Short positions can be placed at the level of 0.9420 with Take Profit orders around 0.9395.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: the Pound is under pressure Current trend Yesterday’s negative statistics on British trading balance and industrial output weakened the Pound. The decline in these indices can indicate that economic growth pace is slowing down. It is possible that economic growth has sputtered out and GDP has reached its peak, which will mean that GDP for Q3 will be below forecast. On the other hand, the USD has strengthened after the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting. Today the decision of the Bank of England on interest rate will become known. It is likely that the interest rate will be left at the previous level of 0.25%. Planned volumes of assets purchase will be also announced. Support and resistance At the moment the pair is trading near the level of 1.5940, which coincides with the level of 38.2 Fibonacci. The price is testing this level from both sides and this level prevents further decline in the pair. Next support levels will be 1.5900 and 1.5850. Resistance levels are 1.5970, 1.6000 and 1.6050. Trading tips It is likely that the pair GBP/USD will continue to decline. It makes sense to open short positions below the level of 1.5900.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
XAU/USD: general analysis Current trend Gold is still being traded in the sideways channel on the daily chart. If the issue of the US national debt is not resolved in the near future, the gold rate will go up to the level of 1354.00. US budget is a matter of politics and there is no doubt that the parties will be able to come to agreement on this issue. Democrats are preparing a bill granting Obama the right to raise national debt without approval of the Republicans. Meanwhile, the country is apprehensive of the “Black Thursday” on 17 October, as it can cause significant decline in the USD. Rating agencies try to reassure financial markets. Chief Operation Officer of Moddy’s Michelle Madeline said that she estimates probability of defaults as extremely low. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level on the daily chart is the level of price near 1311.75. Support level is 1278.00. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions above 1300.00 with the target of 1.340.00 and protective orders around 1295.00.
Dmitry Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
EUR/USD: euro is growing Current trend US President Barack Obama did not meet the wishes of the Republicans, who suggested to raise the limit of the US national debt. It is expected that on 17 October deficit of the US budget will amount to $30 billion and the Treasury will have to declare default. Nevertheless, probability of default is estimated as low. It is very unlikely that the US Fed will start to phase out QE3 program due to shutdown of work of the US government, since the idle period will have a negative impact on the economic recovery. Support and resistance /b] Technical analysis confirms “bullish” sentiment among market participants. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone, dynamics of volume is not clear. “Bollinger bands” indicator shows further growth, its moving average line is directed upward. Resistance levels: 1.3573 and 1.3618. Support levels: 1.3384 and 1.3464. Trading tips It is recommended to place long positions at the current price with profit taking at the level of 1.3573 and stop-loss at the level of 1.3464.
Andrey Chupov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: two steps before the collapse Current trend Last week the British currency traded in the sideways channel in the range of 1.6000-1.5920. Weak British macro-economic statistics continues to put pressure on the Pound. On the other hand, the UDS is under pressure from unresolved issue on the limit of the national US debt. The time is running out while Democrats and Republicans do not want to compromise. American government will resume work tomorrow and only two days will be left when country’s economy will bump up against the debt ceiling. The pair tried to consolidate above the level of 1.6000, however due to the low demand for the Pound, this attempt was unsuccessful. It is a public banking day in America (Columbus Day), news releases from the UK either are not expected either. Support and resistance Today the pair will continue sideways corrective trend. Later, the price can push off from the upper limit of the downward channel (1.6000) and go down to the key support level of 1.5850 (level of 50% Fibonacci). If the level of 1.5850 is broken down, downtrend will consolidate and the decline can continue up to 1.5750 and 1.5440. Otherwise, correction may take place up to 1.5850, which will be followed by the new ascending wave. MACD indicator confirms downward movement: on the daily chart histogram is below the signal line and is directed downward. Support levels: 1.5910, 1.5850, 1.5750. Resistance levels: 1.6000, 1.6100 and 1.6260. Trading tips In the current situation it is advisable to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 1.5850. Pending buy orders can be placed above the level of 1.6020 with profit taking at the level of 1.6200.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF USD/CHF, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen and they have both been horizontal since last week indicating sideways trend. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. Support levels are Tenkan-sen (0.9101) and Kijun-sen (0.9073) lines. One of the previous maximum of the Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9135.
USD/CHF, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line, and the price is stuck between them. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. After long fall the price has been corrected, Tenkan-sen (0.9050) and Kijun-sen (0.9181) lines have become support and resistance levels respectively.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9101, 0.9050, 0.9073. Resistance levels: 0.9135, 0.9181. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the pair is trading within a sideways channel. Daily chart however shows us a correction. The targets for the long positions are 0.9135 and 0.9181. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 14-18.10.2013
Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site Forex Trading : Top Forex Broker : LiteForex