LiteForex Analytics - page 12
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«Gazprom»: general analysis At the beginning of the session “Gazprom” bonds have risen by 0.95%. The nearest resistance level is 133.75. Long positions should be opened after the breakdown of the resistance and consolidation of the price above it. The market is under pressure of Syrian conflict. President Obama soon can get the authorization of the US Congress to strike. Though the intervention hasn’t been approved yet, the rates of precious metals and crude oil are growing. The question of US quantitive easing program is still unanswered. Head of FRB of Minneapolis stated that the programs should be expended, not curtailed, due to the unstable economic growth. The main fundamental factors for today are official bank rates in UK and EU. I assume the interest rates will remain at the same level. From the other side of the Atlantic we anticipate labour market data.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst
USD/JPY: analysis and forecast 1. Current trend of USD/JPY This week the pair USD/JPY has been slowly strengthening; today the price has hit two-month highs at the level of 100.20. Then the pair has been corrected ant is now trading around middle MA (99.70) of Bollinger Bands indicator. The Yen has been supported by the increase in Leading Indicators by 0.6%. Today investors are waiting for the US labour market data. If unemployment rate decreases and Non-Farm Employment Change index increases, the pair will start to grow. 2. Important levels: support and resistance If fundamental data from USA supports the pair, the price will go all the way up to the upper border of the channel at 100.20. Downwards correction can happen at this level. Regarding the situation I would recommend to open long trades at the level of 99.80 with targets at 100.20. 3. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart technical indicators give controversial signals. Bollinger Bands become horizontal; the price chart can bounce off the middle MA and go up. MACD histogram is in overbought zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed downwards, giving a signal to sell.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD XAU/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line and they are both directed downwards. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo is descending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1380.97). One of the previous minimums of the Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1473.60.
XAU/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, and the price is stuck between them. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud remains ascending. Tenkan-sen (1353.07) and Kijun-sen (1397.91) lines become resistance and support levels respectively.
Key levels Support levels: 1361.20, 1397.91. Resistance levels: 1380.97, 1353.07. Trading tips On the four-hour chart Ichimoku lines indicate the development of downward movement. However, there is no sign of trend reversal on the daily chart. Long-term short positions can be opend after breakdown of the level of 1397.91. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst
GBP/USD: US statistics will weaken the Pound 1. Current trend of GBP/USD The pair GBP/USD is trading within an ascending channel. The Pound is falling today due to the decrease of UK Industrial Production index in July down to 0.2% and rise of the Trade Balance deficit up to 9.9 billion pounds. If US labour market statistics are positive, we will witness further fall of the pair. Non-Farm Employment index can increase by 16 000, and unemployment rate will remain the same – 7.4%. 2. Important levels: support and resistance From the technical analysis point of view the price has broken through the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and is moving towards its lower line at 1.5540. If this level is also broken, the pair will go all the way down to the lower border of the channel at 1.5460. An uprising correction can reach the level of 1.5590. Regarding the situation I would recommend to open short positions at current price with targets around 1.5460. 3. Technical indicators Technical indicators on the four-hour chart confirm the possibility of the fall. Bollinger Bands are going to be horizontal, the price chart is moving towards the lower line of the indicator (1.5540). MACD histogram is in overbought zone and is going to cross the signal line from above, forming a signal to sell. Stochastic lines are directed downwards and are going to enter oversold zone (20).
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst
Brent: review 1. Current trend Today the rate of the crude oil Brent is falling, but still remains rather high. Brent is getting cheaper due to the fundamental data from China. Import to Heavenly Empire in August was 21.4 million tons; it is 18% lower than previous figures in July. The additional pressure Brent receives from technical profit takes. The rate of the instrument this high is supported by investors’ anticipation of the resolution to Syrian conflict. As you may know, President Obama seeks Congress approval of the strike. If he gets it, the rate will jump up. 2. Important levels: support and resistance Support levels: 115.40, 114.40. Resistance levels: 116.50, 117.30. 3. Trading tips If US Congress authorizes military intervention, the rate of the instrument will go all the way up to the levels 117.30 and 118.25. Otherwise, we will witness a fall down to the levels 114.40 and 112.20.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst
GBP/USD: waiting for the new highs 1. Current trend Last week the Pound has been strengthening against Dollar. Positive fundamental data and increase of demand for the currency supported the pair. Even lack of the manufacturing production development couldn’t interfere with the movement of the instrument: though the pair dropped down it restarted its rise afterwards. Dollar in its turn is weakened by the negative statistics from labour market and construction sector of USA. We don’t expect high volatility today due to the lack of fundamental releases. On Wednesday UK labour market indices will be published; unemployment claims can decrease significantly. 2. Important levels: support and resistance Thanks to the British labour market development, the pair can rise above 1.5700. It is also possible that this week the pair will hit June’s highs at 1.5750. The price is still moving within ascending channel and the Pound has all the chances to reach key resistance at 1.5880. 3. Best entry/exit points Regarding the situation, I would recommend to open long trades with targets at 1.5750-1.5880. 4. Supporting facts On the daily chart MACD histogram is in positive zone above signal line and is directed upwards, indicating upward movement.
Dmitry Likhachev Analysts of LiteForexGroup of Companies
USD/CHF: analysis and forecast 1. Current trend At the end of last week the pair USD/CHF declined sharply due to statistics from the American labour market. Number of jobs outside agricultural sector was lower than expected and employment rate has also slightly decreased. Investors started to doubt that QE3 will be phased out soon and preferred to invest money to the other currencies. Last Tuesday the pair USD/CHF lost more than 100 points and reached the two-week lows at the level of 0.9300. After that the pair has corrected under the influence of negative data on retail sales in Switzerland. 2. Support and resistance Key resistance level is at 0.9330. If this level is broken down, the price can go up to the levels of 0.9360 and 0.9380, the latter coincides with the moving average line of the “Bollinger bands” indicator. However, it is likely that the pair will gradually go down to support levels of 0.9300 and 0.9250. It is advisable to open long positions if the price consolidates above the level of 0.9330. Profit taking is recommended near the level of 0.9360. Short positions are recommended at the level of 0.9350 with profit taking near 0.9250. 3. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger bands demonstrate divergence, confirming downtrend; the price chart is trading in the lower band. MACD histogram has moved to the oversold zone and formed a sell signal. Stochastic lines are directed upward, confirming probability of ascending correction.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst
EUR/USD: will investors come back to Dollar? 1. Current trend Yesterday the pair EUR/USD was still affected by the Friday’s impetus. Non-Farm Payrolls index was lower then expected, so the pair jumped up. Regardless the increase of working places and decrease of unemployment rate in USA, the pair went steeply up, reaching the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci lines. At the beginning of the trading week the fall of the Dollar was determined by the decrease of US Consumer Credit index. Consumer activity declines and retailers and manufacturers suffer. Investors’ attention is drawn to the US Small Business index, which is going to rise up to the 94.8 points. The last release for today will be Job Openings index, which can also rise and support Dollar. 2. Support and resistance Support levels will be at the local minimum 1.3217 and at the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci lines (1.3185). The last one is near middle MA of Bollinger Bands. If the level of 1.3185 is broken through, the price will fall down to the levels of 1.3104 and 1.3065. 3. Trading tips As a trading strategy I would recommend to open short trades with targets at 1.3185. The next target will be at the strong support level of 50% of Fibonacci lines.
Kamil Avad Analyst
USD/JPY: downward correction will not last long 1. Current trend of USD/JPY The currency pair USD/JPY continues trading in the upward channel. On Tuesday the pair reached the upper limit of the channel (100.57) and shifted to the downward correction. The Yen was supported by the rise in business sentiment index in the manufacturing sector of Japan. The index reached the level of 15.2 points, which is the highest mark since 2009. 2. Important levels: support and resistance At the moment the price continues to decline, tending to reach moving average of “Bollinger bands” indicator (99.70). Starting from this level the price is likely to resume the rise up to the upper limit of the ascending channel and to resistance levels of 100.60 and 101.00. In the current situation it is advisable to open short-term short positions from the level of 100.20 with profit taking at the level of 99.70. It is recommended to open pending buy orders at the level of 99.70 with the target of 101.00. 3. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm that there is a chance of downward correction. The price chart tends to the moving average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone, its volumes are decreasing. In addition, histogram and the price chart are forming a divergence, indicating possibility of decline in price. Stochastic lines are directed downward, forming a sell signal.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst
GBP/USD: would be the head of BoE satisfied with the rate of economic growth? 1. Current trend On Wednesday investors’ expectations were based on British labour market indicators. Unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, while experts predicted stable indicator. Number of applications for unemployment benefits in August was below expectations and amounted to 32.6 thousand. Amid these positive macro-economic factors the pair sharply went up, breaking down several strong resistance levels and reached the level of 1.5820. After that the Pound rolled back to the level of 1.5780; however at the opening of the American session it has reached the local highs of 1.5820. Traders’ attention today will be focused on the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. According to the latest data, British economy has come out of a recession and is gathering pace, which means that Carney is unlikely to disappoint investors and demand for the Pound will only grow. 2. Support and resistance It is expected today that British currency will continue to grow against the USD up to 1.5880. After that the pair will experience downward correction to support level of 1.5700 (1.5650). In the medium-term the pair can grow up to the level of 1.6000. 3. Exit/entry points As the medium-term strategy it is recommended to place long positions with profit taking at the level of 1.6000. Pending buy orders can be placed at the levels of 1.5700 and 1.5650 with profit taking at the level of 1.5880. 4. Technical indicators On the daily chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line and is directed upward, indicating continuation of ascending movement.
Dmitriy Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies