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Brent: Review 1. Current trend Rate of crude oil Brent has almost reached the level of $111.20 per barrel, which is the highest point for the 5 months — last time the instrument had reached this point on the 2nd of April 2013. Last Friday Brent went up due to the unstable situation in the Middle East. Israel air force has bombarded Beirut territory in retaliation for the attack from Lebanon. Investors are concerned about the supply disruptions. The situation is complicated with UN investigation on chemical weapons attack in Syria. Besides, US DOD has announced the possibility of intervention in Syria civil war. Middle East situation will determine the movement of the instrument. 2. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 111.30, 111.80, 113.40. Support levels: 110.70, 109.80, 109.00.
Alexander Freis Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GPB/USD: further fall is expected 1. Current trend UK GDP data released on Friday were better than expected. Quarter index has risen up to 0.7% against predicted 0.6%, and annual index has risen up to 1.5% against 1.4%. Favorable data on export and manufacturing sector have also been published last week. All those factors pushed the pair up, it overcame the level of 1.5600, and reached the point of 1.5636, but several hours later bounced back to the level of 1.5539. The pair was saved from the further fall by the negative macroeconomic statistics from US. Regardless the support from fundamental data Pound couldn’t consolidate above the level of 1.5700, so we expect the price to stay within a narrow channel. Correction down to 1.5500 is also possible. 2. Support and resistance The closest resistance levels are 1.5580, 1560 and 1.5650. The main goal for the Bulls is to return to the level of 1.5700. Bears hope to overcome the level of 1.5530, which coincide with 23.6% of Fibonacci lines. If the price breaks through the level, we’re going to witness new lows. 3. Trading tips I would recommend to sell below the level of 1.5530. Pending orders to buy can be placed at 1.5650 and 1.5750.
Lashenko Ilya Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Weekly analytical review of the financial market of 26.08.2013
Weekly analytical review and forecast of Forex market. Financial instruments EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY.
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line and they are both directed steeply downwards. Chinkou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. Despite Golden Cross formation the pair went down, breaking through levels of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. The nearest resistance level is the blue line at 0.9000. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8912.
AUD/USD, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have merged and have been horizontal since last week. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo is still descending. The nearest resistance level is merged Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen line at 0.9082. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8903.
Key levels Support levels: 0.8912, 0.8903. Resistance levels: 0.9082, 0.9000. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see a new development of the downward trend. Targets for the short trades are at the 0.8912 level. The chart of the higher timeframe confirms a new wave of the Bears’ movement. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst
GBP/USD: the pair is preparing to break through 1.5490 1. Current trend of GBP/USD Since last week the pair has been within downward correction, which had been provoked by the FOMC Minutes publication. ThisTuesday Pound has already lost more than 150 points. Even positive GDP data from UK couldn’t stop the fall. According to the preliminary forecasts, GDP will rise up to 0.7% exceeding the expectations. There are no important releases in trader’s calendar for today, but tomorrow we anticipate the speech of BOE Mark Carney. His speech will probably cause high market volatility. 2. Important levels: support and resistance We can see a development of the downward movement. The price is moving towards middle MA of Bollinger Bands 1.5490. If this level is broken through, the pair will go further down to the level of 1.5400 and even to the lower border of the uprising channel. Otherwise the price can return to the levels of 1.5600 and 1.5650. Regarding the situation I would recommend to open short trades with Take Profit orders at 1.5400. 3. Technical indicators On the daily chart indicators confirm the possibility of fall. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, but the price chart is moving towards the MA. MACD histogram is in overbought zone. It crosses signal line from above, forming a signal to sell. Stochastic lines have entered oversold zone, giving another signal to sell.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst
XAG/USD: technical analysis 1. Current trend Yesterday morning Silver has once again reached four-month highs. After that we witnessed a correction down to the level of 23.6% of Fibonacci lines, the level prevented further fall. The commodity is testing now the level of 23.90. Next support levels will be at 23.40, 22.90, 22.60 and 22.00. Resistance levels are 24.25 and 24.60, and the key level at 25.00, of which the price can rebound. Indicators give us controversial signals. Stochastic is in overbought zone and signalize the rise. Signal line of the MACD indicator is in positive zone, but outside the histogram zone and is directed downwards, giving a signal to sell. 2. Trading tips Short trades with targets at 22.80 can be opened if the price consolidates under the level of 23.70. Sell limit orders should be placed at the level of 25.00, but do not forget about stop-losses.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
EUR/JPY: technical analysis 1. Current trend At the end of the last week the pair has reached one-month highs at the level of 132.40. This week the pair has returned to the downward movement and on Tuesday during Asian session has dropped down to the 129.80.EUR/JPY is trading now within a range 130.00-130.50 under the level of 50.0% of Fibonacci lines, which becomes a strong resistance level. Stochastic is above MA and gives a signal to sell. MACD histogram and signal line are in the negative zone. If volumes of the histogram start to decrease and signal line leave the zone of histogram, we will get a signal to buy. MA with 20 and 50 periods indicate sideways movement. 2. Levels of support and resistance The nearest support line is 130.00; the next support (129.80) coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci lines. If the price breaks through the last support, we will see further fall down to the level of 129.00. Resistance levels are 130.50 и 130.90, the last one is the main target for the Bulls. 3. Trading tips Regarding the situation I would recommend to avoid opening new trades until we receive clearer trading signals.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
GBP/USD: analysis and forecast 1. Current trend of GBP/USD On Wednesday the pair GBP/USD has hit three-week lows at 1.5428. However the speech of Mark Carney helped the Pound to rise again. Head of BOE announced that British economy is recovering but it may take three years for the unemployment rate to decrease down to 7%. After the announcement the pair has gained 100 points and gone up to the level of 1.5540. Today the pair returned to fall once again: investors are waiting for the US GDP data release. According to experts the rate will increase up to 2.2% and the pair will be pushed down. 2. Important levels: support and resistance The pair is trading around the level of 1.5520, which coincides with middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The most probable scenario is the downward movement towards support level of 1.5400 and then rebound. I would recommend to open short trades at the level of 1.5500 and Take Profit orders at 1.5400. 3. Technical indicators Indicators on the daily chart give us controversial signals, showing some некоторую uncertainty of the market before important releases. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, but the price chart has reached MA and can soon enter the lower band MACD histogram is in overbought zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed upwards after crossing, giving us a signal to buy.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst
Brent: review 1. Current trend Rate of the Brent couldn’t stay long at the six-month highs and started to fall. NATO will probably give up the intention of military intervention to Syria; this decision makes crude oil cheaper. Britain Parliament declined the proposal of Prime Minister David Cameron to get involved with Syrian conflict. Yesterday Barak Obama announced that USA didn’t come to a conclusion concerning chemical weapon attack in Damascus. Earlier France was supporting military intervention, but now French government encourages to solve the problem in diplomatic way. The news has calmed down the market and investors started to take the profit. Today we expect important fundamental data from US and Eurozone which may affect the movement of the instrument. 2. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 116.30, 117.30. Support levels: 114.60, 113.80, 112.50.
Alexander Freis, Analyst
USD/CAD: GDP data release will weaken “loonie” 1. Current trend Yesterday the pair USD/CAD has risen by 70 points, had met a resistance at the upper line of “Bollinger Bands” indicator and couldn’t overcome the level of 1.0542. Now the price chart is moving towards middle MA of the indicator (1.0504). Fundamental data affecting the movement of the currency will be Canadian GDP data and US stats publication. At the beginning of the American session personal income and spending indices will be released. According to experts, income index will remain the same or rise by в 0.3%, while personal spendings will slightly decrease. Canadian GDP date put the pair under pressure; analyst predict decline of both monthly and annual indices. Attention should also be paid to the consumer sentiment and PMI indices release. 2. Support and resistance Key support level is 1.0504; if it is broken through, the price may go further down to the level of 1.0471. More likely the price will try overcome yesterday’s maximum at 1.0542, and it’s breakdown will open new targets at 1.0568 and 1.0608. 3. Trading tips As a trading strategy I would recomenf to open long trades at current price and with targets around the level of 1.0568.
Kamil Avad Analyst