LiteForex Analytics - page 8

New comment
 

Weekly analytical review of the financial market of 12.08.2013

Weekly analytical review and forecast of Forex market. Financial instruments EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY.

 

EUR/USD: The pair can go down below the level of 1.3250 1. Current trend of EUR/USD This week the currency pair EUR/USD has weakened and by Tuesday the price fell by more than 100 points from the opening level. At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 1.3000. Even negative performance of the American Federal budget, which showed that expenditures of the America government exceeded revenue by 97.6 billion USD, was not able to prevent the rise in the USD. 2. Important levels: support and resistance At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 1.3000. During the day the pair may temporarily go up to the level of 1.3330. The rise will be caused, first of all, by the release of data on volume of industrial output and business sentiment index in Eurozone (ZEW). The data is expected to be positive. However, it is likely that the price will continue to go down to the level of 1.3250. This level will coincide with the moving average line of the Bollinger bands and looks like the key one. If this level is broken out, the price will go further down to 1.3200 and 1.3140. Attention today shall be focused on the data of retail sales in US, which can give additional support to the USD. In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.3250. 3. Technical indicators Technical indicators confirm a chance of downward movement in price. Bollinger bands are directed upward; however the price chart has bounced off upper line, trying to reach the moving average line at the level of 1.3250. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone and in the near future it can cross the signal line from top to bottom, forming a sell signal. Stochastic lines are directed downward, indicating that downward movement in price will continue.

Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst

 

EUR/USD: General analysis The Unified European currency had failed to break down important resistance level of 1.3398 on the daily chart and fell up to 1.3232, which is a support level on the four-hour chart. We can see that the pair has rebounded from this level and at the moment is trading in the range of1.3265 -1.3265. As a trading strategy we recommend to open short positions at the level of1.3215 with protective order near1.3240 and a target of 1.3150. Good news from Germany, released yesterday, indicated, in particular, that sentiment index ZEW went up, gaining 42 points against the previous figure of 36.3 points, which was contrary to expectations; however the Unified European currency declined. The reasons that cause this decline can be Greek problems, as the country may again need financial aid and forthcoming election of the German Chancellor. Recall, that the leading opponent of Mrs. Merkel- Mr. Shtaybryuk, blamed Chancellor in lop-sided approach to solving debt problems. According to Mr. Shtaybryuk, Germany should make more substantial contribution to stabilization of economic situation in Eurozone. He said that we cannot bear the thought that Greece or any other participant can leave European Union, as it will have devastating consequences for the entire currency union.

Dmitry Agurbash Analyst

 

Brent: Review 1. Current trend Yesterday world prices for crude oil Brent rose by 0.85 USD and reached 109.82 USD per barrel. This rise was caused by the positive US news. It became known that retail sale in the USA increased by 0.2% in July. The index has been rising for the fourth consecutive month. As of the morning of 14.08 2013 oil has slightly fallen in price amid concerns that the US Department of Energy will report that reduction in oil reserves is not too significant. Today, official data on the reserves oil and oil products by US Department of Energy will become known. According to the forecast reserves of crude oil will reduce by 1.4-1.6 million barrels, stocks of gasoline will decrease by 1.9-2.1 million barrels, and that of distillate will drop by 1.0-1.1 million. Investors’ fears are based on publication of preliminary data from API. According to API estimates, crude oil reserves reduced by 999 thousand barrels, while inventories of gasoline increased by 1.7 million barrels, distillate inventories also increased by 1.1 million barrels. 2. Levels of support and resistance Technical indicators show that the pair is experiencing correction, which followed after the growth, which lasted for several sessions in a row and investors have started to take profit. The first level on the way of bears will be level of 23.6 Fibonacci ((109.10). If correction continues, the next level will be 108.60 and after that level of 50.0 Fibonacci. Strong support level is 107.50. Resistance level is at the psychologically important mark of 110.00 USD per barrel.

Anton Karat Analyst

 

gbp jpy

As you can see in the below GBP/JPY one hour time frame chart , We’ve bearish divergence in MACD indicator right in the completion point of bearish butterfly harmonic pattern so we can expect downward move in this pair

User Log In

 

AUD/USD: The pair can continue to grow 1. Current trend of AUD/USD On Wednesday quotes of the currency pair AUD/USD has shifted to growth. The change was caused unfavourable American statistics and declarations by the chairman of the US Federal Reserve Saint Lois James Bullard. The US producer price index amounted to 0.0% in July; the prices of goods have not actually changed at all, which suggests the decrease in inflation that is unfavourable for the American economy. At the same time Mr. Bullard said that situation in the labour market has significantly improved, while the rate of inflation fell short of the target of 2%, therefore it is too early to launch phasing out of QE3. Attention today should be focused on the volume of industrial output and consumer price index in the USA. Experts believe that the data may weaken the USD. 2. Important levels: support and resistance At the moment the price is trying to reach resistance level of 0.9200, which coincides with the upper line of the “Bollinger bands” indicator and looks like the key one. If this level is broken down, the price may go up to the level of 0.9300. Otherwise, the price may reverse and go back to the level of 0.9130, which corresponds to the moving average line of Bollinger bands. In the current situation it is advisable to place long positions. It also makes sense to place pending orders “sell limit at the level of 0.9200. 3. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are in the sideways trend; the price chart tends to the upper line. Histogram of MACD indicator is in the overbought zone, its volumes are increasing. The lines of Stochastic are directed upward, entering into the overbought zone and giving a buy signal.

Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

EURUSD: General analysis 1. Current trend Today the pair has slightly grown, rebounding from the lower limit of the channel. Note, that a sloped upward channel is being formed on the four-hour time chart. At the moment the pair is at the level of 1.3287, the moving average line of Bollinger bands indicator is located near this line. The price chart has crossed this line, forming a buy signal. The US news will be the fundamental factors that may cause changes in the price. Experts predict the rise in the retail sales index, the decline in the monthly index of consumer prices, while the annual value of the index will increase. Note also, that real wages will decrease; number of applications for the unemployment benefits will also go down. Obviously, the data on foreign purchase of debt obligations of the US Treasury will have significant impact on the USD rate. The last in the list of releases- is the data on business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia district and the index of the housing market. Analysts believe that these indices may reduce. Today’s news shall add volatility to the pair, considering conflicting expectations of investors and analysts. 2. Levels of support and resistance Psychologically crucial level is 1.3300, next resistance levels are 1.3317 and 1.3344. Support level is the lower limit of the channel, starting from this level ascending movement can go up to 1.3344 and to 1.3398. 3. Trading tips As a trading strategy we recommend to open long positions with protective stop order at the level of 1.3228.

Kamil Avad Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

 

USDCAD: General analysis 1. Current trend Since the opening of the European trading session today, the pair is demonstrating minor growth, pushing off from the lower limit of the forming ascending channel of 1.0293. At the moment quotes have reached technical resistance of 1.0330, where moving average line of the Bollinger bands indicator is located. Later, the rise can reach the upper line of the indicator at the level of 1.0365, which can be encouraged by the US fundamental data. A lot of US economic statistics will become known today; experts predict the increase in a number of construction permits and new houses construction, as well as the rise in consumer confidence index by Michigan University. Canadian news will be also worth of paying attention: volume of foreign investments in Canadian securities can increase, which will strengthen the CAD; while volume of sales in the manufacturing sector can go down. 2. Levels of support and resistance Resistance levels are 1.0330 and 10365. Support level: 1.0293. 3. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions from the current market level. It is likely that the price will go to the line of 1.0365 today, however the “bulls” are unlikely to maintain further rise in price. In the long-term the price can go up to the upper limit of the channel at the level of 1.0445.

Kamil Avad Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

 

GBP/USD: Dynamics analysis and forecast for the future 1. Current trend of GBP/USD On Thursday the currency pair GBP/USD significantly strengthened, gaining more than 150 points and reaching to the level of 1.5630. Support to the British currency was provided by the data, showing that retails sales in the country rose up by 1.1% in July. On the other hand, volume of industrial output in the US remained unchanged compared with the previous month, which also provoked the rise in the pair. However, today ascending movement has shifted to correction. Attention shall be paid to some US macro-economic statistics, scheduled for the release today, including important data on number of construction permits and number of new houses construction in July. According to experts these indices may increase, which will trigger the rise in the USD and continuation of the corrective movement. 2. Important levels: support and resistance At the moment the pair has pushed off from the upper limit of the ascending channel, providing probability of continuation of upward movement to the level of 1.5550, which coincides with the level of 50.0 Fibonacci. If this level is broken down, the price can go down further to the levels of 1.5490 and 1.5400, coinciding to the moving average line of the Bollinger bands indicator and the level of 61.8 Fibonacci. However, a chance that ascending movement will continue cannot be ruled out, especially if American statistics will be negative. In such case the price can go up to resistance level of 1.5730. In the current situation short positions can be opened with the target of 1.5490. Long positions are recommended from the level of 1.5670 with profit taking near 1.5730. 3. Technical indicators On the daily chart indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger bands are directed upward; however the price chart has broken the upper line, which gives a chance of decline. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone, volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are intersecting, going upward and forming a buy signal.

Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

EUR/USD: general analysis 1. Current trend The pair has been trading without significant changes in the narrow range of 40 points for the second consecutive day. The chart clearly shows the formation of the pattern “Triangle” which can either continue the trend or change it. In case of breakdown of the upper border of the triangle, the price will go up to the levels of 1.3399 and 1.3416. If the price breaks down the lower boundary and the local lows of 1.3313, the movement will go to the lower boundary of the ascending channel to the level of 1.3247, which is close to the lower line of “Bollinger Bands” indicator. The data from US will become a fundamental factor, which will determine further movement in price. Retail sales index as per Redbook and ICSC estimates will become known today, as well as business activity index in the manufacturing sector by The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Attention shall be also focused on the sales figures in the secondary housing market, which is expected to rise by 1.6% against the value for the previous period. This data can strengthen the USD. 2. Important levels: support and resistance The nearest obstacles on the way to the lower boundary of the channel are the lines of 1.3322 and 1.3313. Support level is 1.3374. 3. Technical indicators The price chart is preparing to cross the midline of “Bollinger bands” indicator and form a sell signal. The signal line of MACD indicator is ready to go beyond histogram, also giving a sell signal. 4. Trading tips In case of breakdown 1.3322 it is advised to open short positions with the target of 1.3247.

Kamil Avad Analyst

123456789101112131415...95
New comment