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Dollar Rallies BoE, ECB Surprise
After leaders at both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank surprised markets with monetary policy stances that were more dovish than previously, the U.S. Dollar broadly rallied during the Asian session. It appears that the Federal Reserve is now the only one of the world’s key central bank with any intent to take a more hawkish stance. Analysts believe that if today’s release of labor data supports an imminent Fed move, it could increase the upside momentum for the greenback though even a downside surprise is likely to have little enduring effect on the Dollar’s relative strength.
Caution Ahead for Dollar Bulls as NFP Looms
With financial markets in the U.S. closed today for the Independence Day holiday, the U.S. Dollar held steady in overnight Asian trade after investors cut back their long positions ahead of Friday’s market moving data release, namely the monthly non-farms payroll report. Markets are also awaiting monetary policy decisions from both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, so cautiousness prevails. Mario Draghi, the ECB head, is expected to caution investors that the loose monetary policy in place is likely to remain in place for sometime as downside risks to growth are still abundant. The new head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, is also unlikely to stray from existing policy but market watchers believe he may make a personal statement following the policy decision announcement, nonetheless. details
USDOLLAR Continues to Search for Resistance- JPY to Face BoJ
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.67 percent higher from the open as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls increased 195K in June amid forecasts for a 165K print, and the bullish sentiment surrounding the reserve currency should gather pace over the near to medium-term as the data adds to the argument for the FOMC to start tapering its asset-purchase program. Nevertheless, the dollar may face a short-term pullback following the European close as the 30-minute relative strength index falls back from resistance (84), but we should see the upward trend continue to take shape as the fundamental outlook for the world’s largest economy improves. In turn, we will continue to buy dips in the greenback, and we may see the reserve currency mark fresh highs in the week ahead should a growing number of Fed officials adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy.
Results of 1 round of “Master Scalper”
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[TD="width: 98"] 6[TR]
[TD="width: 98"] 7 [TD] 2715811 [TD] Lodd22 [TD] 2 983.18[TR]
[TD="width: 98"] 8 [TD] 2715749 [TD] Geree [TD] 2 817.58[TR]
[TD="width: 98"] 9 [TD] 2715535 [TD] Porfavor [TD] 2 683.89[TR]
[TD="width: 98"] 10 [TD] 2715230 [TD] eddie3791 [TD] 2 612.18June, 28 2013. 23:00 terminal time – Demo
Dollar Sets Sights on New 3-Year High, S&P 500 Gains Corrective US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices narrowly edged above resistance at 10980, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, opening the door for a move higher to challenge the 123.6% level at 11101. The 10980 mark has been recast as near-term support. A reversal back beneath that aims for the 76.4% expansion at 10859.
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EUR/JPY Technical Analysis- Prices pulled back from resistance at 130.72, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, to challenge the 23.6% levelat 128.51. This barrier is reinforced by a rising trend line at 128.74. A drop beneath that eyes the 14.6% Fib at 127.15. Alternatively, a move above resistance aims for the 50% expansion at 132.50.
Yen Rises Further Against the Dollar in an FOMC Focused Trading Day
In Japan, the consumer confidence index for June was reported today at 44.3, lower than expectations for 45.6. The Yen has been trading higher against the US Dollar following weak trade data from China. USD/JPY is trading a few points below 100.00 at the time of this writing, and the pair may see resistance by that key figure. Support may be provided by a rising trend line from February, currently at 97.50.
Dollar Steady on US Treasuries Yield
The U.S. Dollar Index traded at 81.333 .DXY, a gain of 0.1% and holding steady above August’s low price of 80.868 .DXY. The USD/JPY pair traded at 97.76 Yen, a gain of 0.2% while the EUR/USD pair steadied at $1.3328, pulling back from the Friday’s high of $1.3380. Analysts say that while the Euro had received support from improved economic data their expectations are that the 3rd quarter’s GDP figures are likely to worsen with demand for the Euro eroding.
The Japanese Yen had a mediocre week, only finding solace in the fact that emerging markets were in mini-meltdown mode and therefore its role as a safe haven was revived.
The CHFJPY and EURJPY lead the way, adding +1.69% and +1.63% respectively, as the Euro finally started to respond to some of the improved data over recent weeks, while emerging market capital outflows could be finding home in the Switzerland as a haven as well. Profit taking in the GBPJPY saw the pair give back its gains to +0.83% for the week, while the USDJPY hit a three-week high above ¥99.00, before closing up by +1.22% and a hair under 98.70.
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Spinning Top candlestick below resistance at 10760. Range support is at 10646, with a break below that targeting the bottom of a falling channel set from early July (now at 10581). A reversal above 10760 aims for the channel top at 10804.