IronFX - Market Analysis - page 50

IronFx 2015.05.22 06:00 #491

IronFX Daily Commentary | 22/05/15

Language English

• Dollar generally lower ahead of Yellen speech The dollar was generally lower this morning against the other G10 currencies. Oddly enough the weakness came during the Asian day this morning; during the European afternoon/US morning the dollar managed to hold onto its gains despite a slew of disappointing US economic indicators (Philadelphia, Chicago and Kansas City Fed indices; initial jobless claims; Markit US manufacturing PMI; and existing home sales all came below expectations, and most were worse than the previous month’s figure. Only the Conference Board leading index for April beat expectations and rose.) Yet Fed funds rate expectations for this year were largely unmoved and longer-dated expectations declined only slightly, indicating that the data made little difference to market estimates of the Fed’s intentions. It may be that the market believes the Fed is intent on tightening regardless of the level of growth so long as the employment situation is improving and inflation is likely to head back towards its 2% target over the medium term. Moreover, there’s not much chance of them tightening in June, so data for April and May isn’t necessarily relevant to the decision process.

• Or it may be that investors are looking past the recent data towards what Fed Chair Janet Yellen may say about her expectations for Q2 and beyond when she speaks later today. The FOMC minutes after all refer to discussions that took place three weeks ago, and before various papers about the problems seasonally adjusting the GDP data were published. Her speech may give more up-to-date information on her thinking, including comments on the April CPI figures that come out a few hours before she speaks. In addition, with a holiday next Monday in the UK and US, investors may be hesitant to take on big positions.

• Greek hopes dashed; no hopes now? Greek PM Tsipras met with German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande in Riga, Latvia last night. The press was filled with hints that something was afoot: the Guardian newspaper said “a bailout extension will be on the table for discussions,” the idea being to give Greece a four-month breathing space to work out a comprehensive list of reforms. This follows reports in a German newspaper that the Eurogroup is considering extending Greece’s program until the autumn (an idea that Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis has rejected). However, nothing of the sort happened. Following the talks, Germany and France issued a statement saying only that “it was agreed that the talks between the Greek government and the institutions will be continued.” Moreover, earlier hints about a possible special meeting of the Eurogroup at the end of May or early June – before the 5 June payment to the IMF that is likely to push Greece over the edge – were dropped. With only two weeks left before Greece defaults, it seems unlikely that the two sides can reach agreement in time. Is there time for Greece to call a referendum? Or for the German Bundestag to vote on further aid? It seems difficult. I expect this to be a major issue in the market next week and the dominant one the following week if nothing is resolved. If they can’t reach a compromise, Greece will probably have to freeze bank accounts, possibly confiscate bank deposits (as was done in Cyprus) and impose capital controls, which would be in effect a “soft” exit from the Eurozone. Needless to say, brinksmanship on the Greek issue is EUR-negative. On the other hand, it may be positive for JPY and CHF if it causes risk aversion. Short EUR/JPY or EUR/CHF may be the best ways to play the rising tension over Greece.

• BoJ stands pat, as expected The Bank of Japan ended its two-day policy meeting with no change in policy, as expected. Its assessment of the economy was a bit more optimistic than before, with several qualifying phrases removed from the statement in order to emphasize the progress that’s been made. Against this background, one wouldn’t expect them to change policy any time soon. I would expect them to wait to take any more action at least until July, when the results of this year’s wage negotiation should be known and the MPC members update their forecasts again. October, when the next official outlook report comes out, is the most likely month for them to change their program.

• Today’s highlights: During the European day, the main event will be the German Ifo survey for May. The weak ZEW indices on Tuesday increase the likelihood of soft Ifo indices as well. This could add to evidence that Eurozone’s growth engine is losing steam. Following the weak German preliminary manufacturing and service-sector PMIs on Thursday, this could weaken EUR somewhat. The final German Q1 GDP data confirmed the preliminary growth figure and showed that the economy grew at a mere 0.3% qoq pace in Q1, adding to the recent disappointing data.

• In the US, we get the headline and core CPI rates for April. The headline figure is expected to dip further into deflation while the core rate is forecast to have slowed to +1.7% yoy. Since Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks later in day, investors will be probably watching for how she views the current inflation outlook. Fed officials have made the case several times that they remain determined to tighten as long as they are confident that inflation will move back to their 2% objective over the medium term.

• We get the April CPI data from Canada as well. The headline figure is expected to decelerate from the previous month and fall towards the Bank’s lower boundary of 1%-3% target range, while the core rate is forecast to have remained unchanged. In a recent speech by the BoC Governor Poloz, he said that the Bank’s two policy pillars — an inflation target of 2% and economic output running at full capacity by the end of 2016 — remain on track. On top of the gyration of WTI crude oil around 60 in recent weeks, a positive surprise could add to the optimistic tone of the speech and push USD/CAD towards 1.2000 again. Canada’s retail sales are also coming out.

• As for the speakers, in addition to BoJ Governor Kuroda and Fed Chair Janet Yellen, ECB President Draghi and BOE Governor Mark Carney speak. So it’s a big day for speeches.

Currency Titles:

EUR/USD trades virtually unchanged

EUR/GBP falls below 0.7130

USD/JPY pulls back after hitting resistance at 121.25

Gold finds support marginally above 1200

WTI finds resistance near 60.80

Currencies Image Url:

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/22May2015/EURUSD_22May2015.PNG

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/22May2015/EURGBP_22May2015.PNG

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/22May2015/USDJPY_22May2015.PNG

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/22May2015/XAUUSD_22May2015.PNG

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/22May2015/CLN5_22May2015.PNG

Currencies Text:

• EUR/USD traded virtually unchanged on Thursday, staying near the 200-period moving average and slightly above the 1.1100 (S1) line. Taking a look at our oscillators, I still expect the forthcoming wave to be positive. The RSI continued higher after rebounding from its 30 line, while the MACD has bottomed and crossed above its trigger line. A rebound near 1.1100 (S1) is likely to initially challenge our resistance of 1.1200 (R1). A break through that could set the stage for extensions towards 1.1280 (R2). As for the broader trend, the break above 1.1045 (S2) on the 29th of April signaled the completion of a possible double bottom formation, something that could carry larger bullish implications. I would treat the 15th – 20th of May decline as corrective move, at least for now. I would talk about the resumption of the prior downtrend if I see a clear close below the psychological figure of 1.1000 (S3).

• Support: 1.1100 (S1), 1.1045(S2), 1.1000 (S3)

• Resistance: 1.1200 (R1), 1.1280 (R2), 1.1330 (R3)

• EUR/GBP tumbled yesterday, fell below the support (now turned into resistance) barrier of 0.7130 (R1), and found support at 0.7090 (S1). The fall below 0.7130 (R1) confirmed a forthcoming lower low on the 4-hour chart and shifted the short-term picture back negative. I would now expect a break below 0.7090 (S1) to open the way for the next support at 0.7035 (S2). However, our short-term oscillators provide signs that a minor bounce could be looming before the bears take charge again. The RSI exited its oversold territory and is pointing up, while the MACD has bottomed and looks able to move above its trigger soon. Switching to the daily chart, the decline that began on the 7th of May brought into question the completion of a failure swing bottom pattern. Therefore, I prefer to maintain a neutral stance with regards to the overall path of EUR/GBP.

• Support: 0.7090 (S1), 0.7035 (S2), 0.7000 (S3)

• Resistance: 0.7130 (R1), 0.7170 (R2), 0.7200 (R3)

• USD/JPY traded lower yesterday after hitting resistance at 121.25 (R1). During the European morning Friday, the rate is trading slightly above the support barrier of 120.70 (S1). A downside violation of that barrier would be likely to open the way for the next support at 120.30 (S2). Our momentum studies support further declines. The RSI moved lower after exiting its overbought territory, while the MACD has topped and fallen below its trigger line. Nevertheless, although we may experience further bearish extensions, the short-term outlook is positive, in my view. On the 19th of May, the rate emerged above the upper bound of a triangle formation that had been containing the price action since the 20th of March. Therefore, I would treat any further declines as a corrective move before the bulls take control again. On the daily chart, the rate is trading above the 50-day moving average and well above the 200-day one. This keeps the overall trend of USD/JPY to the upside. However, a clear close above 122.00 (R3) is needed to confirm a forthcoming higher high on the daily chart and signal the resumption of that trend.

• Support: 120.70 (S1), 120.30 (S2), 120.00 (S3)

• Resistance: 121.25 (R1), 121.50 (R2), 122.00 (R3)

• Gold traded lower on Thursday after hitting resistance near 1212 (R1), and found support marginally above the psychological figure of 1200 (S1) and the 200-period moving average. Bearing in mind the inability of the bulls to drive the metal above the 1212 (R1) area, but also that the price is still trading above the round figure of 1200 (S1), I would adopt a flat stance as far as the short-term bias is concerned. On the daily chart, Monday failed to close above 1226 (R3). I believe that a decisive close above that barrier is needed to turn the medium-term outlook to the upside. For now, I will maintain my neutral stance as far as the overall picture of the yellow metal is concerned. This is also supported by our daily oscillators. The 14-day RSI is back near its 50 line, while the MACD, although positive, has topped and could be headed back near its zero line.

• Support: 1200 (S1), 1195 (S2), 1190 (S3)

• Resistance: 1212 (R1), 1220 (R2), 1226 (R3)

• WTI surged on Thursday, but the rally was halted around 60.80 (R1). The short-term outlook is back to the upside in my view since the rebound on the 19th of May occurred near the 23.6% retracement level of the 18th of March – 13th of May advance. A clear break above 60.80 (R1) is likely to signal the continuation of the short-term uptrend and perhaps pave the way for our next hurdle, at 61.70 (R2). Nevertheless, our hourly oscillators give evidence that a pullback may be in the works before the next positive leg. The RSI exited its above-70 territory, while the MACD has topped and fallen below its signal line. As for the broader trend, the break above 55.00 on the 14th of April signalled the completion of a double bottom formation, something that could carry larger bullish implications in the not-too-distant future. As a result, I would treat the 13th – 19th of May decline as a corrective move.

• Support: 60.25 (S1), 59.85 (S2), 59.30 (S3)

• Resistance: 60.80 (R1) 61.70 (R2), 62.45 (R3)

Benchmark Currency Rates:

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/22May2015/Benchmark.JPG

Market Summary Url:

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/22May2015/Table.JPG

currency tags:

EUR

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ForexYard's Commentaries Press review EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015,

IronFx 2015.05.25 05:10 #492

IronFX Daily Commentary | 25/05/15

Language English

US CPI, Yellen restore dollar’s uptrend Friday’s announcement of a faster-than-expected rise in the core US CPI, coupled with some hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, have restored the dollar’s uptrend for now. “If the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate,” she said. As I mentioned last week, her view – and that of the FOMC in general – is significantly different than the market’s. Although Yellen did say that she expects the pace of normalization “to be gradual,” the market is currently discounting a Fed funds rate at end-2017 of 1.74%, which is only about half what the FOMC forecast last March (between 3.2% and 3.6%, depending on how you calculate it). USD was up across the board this morning as market expectations for Fed funds rose somewhat on Friday. I would expect rate expectations to continue to rise and for the dollar’s uptrend to continue as a result.

Spain votes in anti-austerity party = EUR-negative Local elections in Spain Sunday gave several major victories to the anti-austerity parties Podemos and Ciudadanos. Meanwhile, the ruling People’s Party suffered its worst result in a municipal election for 24 years. The result is likely to make it even more difficult to resolve the Greek crisis, because Spain will not want to vindicate the rebellious approach of the SYRIZA coalition. Doing so would only show the Spanish voters that the approach of parties like Podemos can win concessions. I would expect the ruling parties of Spain and Portugal to dig in their heels in negotiations with Greece, making it even harder to reach a settlement. The Greek Interior Minister Sunday said on TV that the country didn’t have the money to meet pension and wage bills in June and also make required payments to the IMF, meaning the country will have to default if no agreement is reached in the next couple of weeks.

Japan’s trade deficit narrows Japan’s trade deficit narrowed in April as exports rose more than expected (8% yoy vs expected 6%). Export volume to the US and China rose, with auto exports to the US in particular gaining. Imports meanwhile fell 4.2% as oil prices fell. USD/JPY rose nonetheless as Tokyo stocks opened sharply higher. I expect that the authorities will want to continue with what’s working, namely a weaker yen.

Speculators continue to cut positions The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed that speculators continued to trim their long USD positions and their short currency positions. This leaves the market room to extend USD longs again if it appears that the dollar’s uptrend is resuming.

Today’s highlights: It’s likely to be a quiet day in the markets today as the US and UK markets are closed today for Memorial Day and a spring bank holiday, respectively, while several Continental European countries observe Whit Monday. The only noteworthy data out today is the Japanese trade figures, which are out already.

On Tuesday, in the US, durable goods orders for April are coming out. If the core figure -- durable goods excluding transportation equipment -- rises, as the market expects, that could be seen as the possible start of a turnaround in business investment and would be considered bullish for the dollar. New home sales for April are also due out. Following the better-than-expected housing starts and building permits on Tuesday, if the new home sales show a firming housing sector, this could support USD.

On Wednesday, the main event will be the Bank of Canada rate decision, the only G10 central bank to meet this week. The market expects no change in policy, so the impact on CAD will depend on the tone of the statement and the Bank’s inflation and growth projections. I would expect a more optimistic statement in line with the recent speech by BoC Governor Poloz, who said that the Bank’s two policy pillars — an inflation target of 2% and economic output running at full capacity by the end of 2016 — remain on track. Coming on top of the firm oil price in recent weeks, a positive statement could strengthen CAD somewhat.

Also Wednesday, the Bank of Japan releases the minutes of its April 30 meeting. These are not the minutes from the most recent meeting but rather from the previous one, where they bowed to reality and downgraded their inflation forecasts. Considering that at their latest meeting they kept policy steady again, the minutes of the previous meeting shouldn’t be of much interest.

On Thursday, the 2nd estimate of the UK GDP for Q1 is expected to be revised up, confirming modest growth momentum in early 2015. The expected upward revision along with the recent strong data that suggest an even better growth rate in Q2 are likely to keep GBP well supported. In the US, we get the initial jobless claims for the week ended May 23 and pending home sales for April.

On Friday, during the Asian day, we have the usual end-of-month data dump from Japan. The focus will be on the National CPI rate for April and the Tokyo CPI rate for May. The national CPI rate for April will probably fall to zero, now that the effect of the consumption tax hike in April 2014 will fall out from the year-on-year comparison. That could raise expectations of further BoJ easing, although as I mentioned this isn’t likely to come for several months at the earliest.

In the US on the other hand, Q1 GDP is expected to be revised down to show that the US economy contracted 0.9% at a qoq SAAR, a downward revision from the already disappointing +0.2% qoq expansion seen in the first estimate. I would take the soft Q1 results with a grain of salt and would focus mainly on the data showing the improvement in the economic activity in Q2.

Currency Titles:

EUR/USD collapses after US inflation data and Yellen’s speech

GBP/USD breaks below the uptrend line

EUR/JPY slides below 134.00

Gold hits resistance at 1215

DAX trades in a consolidative mode

Currencies Image Url:

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/25May2015/EURUSD.png

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/25May2015/GBPUSD.png

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/25May2015/EURJPY.png

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/25May2015/GOLD.png

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/25May2015/DAX.png

Currencies Text:

EUR/USD plunged on Friday, following the higher-than-expected US core inflation rate and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments about an interest rate hike in 2015. The rate tumbled below the key barrier of 1.1045 (R1) and hit support below the round number of 1.1000, at 1.0965 (S1). The short-term outlook now has turned negative, and as a result, I would expect a clear break below 1.0965 (S1) to open the way for the next support at 1.0865 (S2). Both our short-term oscillators detect negative momentum and amplify the case for further declines. The RSI hit resistance near its 50 line and raced lower, while the MACD, already negative, fell below its trigger line. Nevertheless, bearing in mind that the RSI hit support at its 30 line and turned up, I would be careful of a possible pullback before the bears take control again. On the daily chart, the move below the 1.1045 (R1) barrier increases the likelihood that the 13th of April – 15th of May recovery was just a corrective move and that the prior downtrend could now be resuming.

• Support: 1.0965 (S1), 1.0865 (S2), 1.0815 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.1045 (R1), 1.1100 (R2), 1.1200 (R3).

GBP/USD also collapsed after the US inflation data and Yellen’s comments. The rate fell below the support (now turned into resistance) of 1.5525 (R1) and below the uptrend line taken from back the low of the 13th of April. Nevertheless, the decline was stopped slightly above the support line of 1.5440 (S1). In my opinion, a clear move below 1.5400 (S2) is needed to confirm a forthcoming lower low and signal the beginning of a newborn short-term downtrend. Such a break is likely to target our next support hurdle, at 1.5300 (S3). Switching to the daily chart, the rate is still trading well above the 80-day exponential moving average, but given that Friday’s decline brings into question the continuation of the uptrend started on the 13th of April, I would prefer to sit on the sidelines for now as far as the overall picture is concerned.

• Support: 1.5440 (S11.5400 (S2), 1.5300 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.5525 (R1), 1.5700 (R2), 1.5800 (R3).

EUR/JPY fell below the uptrend line taken from the low of the 15th of April, and below the support (now turned into resistance) of 134.00 (R1). That move confirmed the negative divergence between our short-term oscillators and the price action and turned the short-term picture negative. I believe that a break below 133.30 (S1) is likely to see scope for more bearish extensions and perhaps target our next support at 132.50 (S2). Our oscillators detect bearish momentum and amplify the case that EUR/JPY is likely to trade lower in the near future. The RSI slid after hitting resistance near its 50 line, while the MACD, already negative, has fallen below its trigger line. On the daily chart, the break above 131.40 on the 29th of April signaled a possible trend reversal in my view. This keeps the medium-term picture somewhat positive. Therefore, I would consider any further declines that stay limited above 131.40 as corrective moves.

• Support: 133.30 (S1), 132.50 (S2), 131.40 (S3).

• Resistance: 134.00 (R1), 135.35 (R2), 136.90 (R3).

Gold started trading higher on Friday, but hit resistance at 1215 (R1) and slid back down to end the day virtually unchanged. The metal has been oscillating between that hurdle and the psychological barrier of 1200 (S1), since the 19th of May. Therefore, I would keep my flat stance as far as the short-term bias is concerned. On the daily chart, last Monday failed to close above 1226 (R3). I believe that a decisive close above that barrier is needed to turn the medium-term outlook to the upside. For now, I will hold a neutral stance as far as the overall picture of the yellow metal is concerned as well. This is also supported by our daily oscillators. The 14-day RSI is back near its 50 line, while the MACD, although positive, has topped and could fall back below its trigger line.

• Support: 1200 (S1), 1195 (S2), 1190 (S3).

• Resistance: 1215 (R1), 1220 (R2), 1226 (R3).

DAX futures traded in a sideways manner on Friday, remaining below the resistance line of 11920 (R1). This makes me believe that we could experience a minor correction before the index is headed higher. A break above the 11920 (R1) barrier is needed to restore the short-term positive picture, which could prompt extensions towards our next hurdle of 12100 (R2). Our short-term oscillators corroborate my view that a pullback could be on the cards. The RSI moved lower after hitting resistance near its 70 line, while the MACD has topped and fallen below its trigger line. There is also negative divergence between the RSI and the price action. On the daily chart, the index rebounded from the long-term uptrend line taken from back at the low of the 16th of October. This keeps the longer-term path to the upside in my view. Therefore, I believe that any short-term downside extensions are likely to provide renewed buying opportunities.

• Support: 11740 (S1), 11420 (S2), 11200 (S3).

• Resistance: 11920 (R1) 12100 (R2), 12280 (R3).

Benchmark Currency Rates:

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/25May2015/Benchmark.JPG

Market Summary Url:

http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/May2015/25May2015/Table.JPG

currency tags:

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Press review USDCAD Technical Analysis 2014, EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015,

mntiwana 2015.05.25 09:17 #493

hi ironfx

there is a fraud case against you in (FPA) forex peace army by mr.mukeshbhai at this page (GUILTY Case# 2015-030 | mukeshbhai vs ironfx.com) can you face reality and clear your position.the complaint y is there with all proves and record.

02-27-2015, 04:39 PM #1

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Default GUILTY Case# 2015-030 | mukeshbhai vs ironfx.com

Original FPA Traders Court Submission by mukeshbhai:

I am submitting the case against: IronFX™ | The Global Leader In Online Trading

My Case is: I hope You Know First of some rules and regulation as well as company's Payment accepting and Withdrawal Process.

Because I have open Forex Trading account In "IronFX™ | The Global Leader In Online Trading" that account No. 22056421 In this account I had deposited $1000 and made profit $3977

In this account when I made Profit $1200 that time I submitted withdrawal request but My account manager said to me that "you have to withdraw profit in bank only so I advise to you that keep profit in wallet or other account or open new account and then transfer this profit in that account. " so I had done this as he had said to me.

At the end of December 2014 I have submitted full amount's withdraw from my trading account. That is $3977 in this case My manager said to me that you have to wait 7 to 10 days for receiving payment in bank. But I had not received payment withing 15 Days so I called to him and he said to me that your withdrawal is processed and already transfer from Company's Bank account and you will get this withing next 5 days. Then after I also wait 6 days but not received so I said to him that send me swift copy for payment send conformation. But they refused to me Give this and then after 2 days I send mail for call back to him but unfortunately he has leave Company due this type of fraud of all customers. That's why company has provide me New Account manager "Navin Chilka" I talks with him and he said to me your account is under investigation so you have to wait for the investigation of Irregular trading activity. In this case I had not do any kind of fraud so I said to company for investigation with give perfect reasons and evidence but company has not yet completed investigation and also said to me that investigation is in process. So I can not understand what is doing since Dec 2014.

I many time talk with New account manager for this matter and also ask for time period of investigation but he has not give any answer for this process but he also said to me that you can complain against Ironfx If he not give perfect answer.

That's Meaning company fully fraud if client make profit in trading account that time company said "irregular trading"

And company manager also said to client that you can make complain anywhere, we have not a problem for that.

I have all evidence like as Call Recording, Live chat as well as Mail.

New thread in the Scam Alerts Folder: Ironfx Refuse to Pay Money If Client Make Profit

Review is submitted by Mukeshbhai on 02/27/15

The company was first contacted about the issue on 12/26/14, the last contact was on 02/27/15

Details: Account Manger Also said to me Complain in anywhere for issuing this payment problem.

Chat detail:

Chat transcript

Name: mukesh

Email: shivdharasteel@yahoo.com

Account number (if applicable) 22056421

What is the nature of your request? Withdrawals

Jithesh Pattathil - Indian Fri, 02/27/15 02:15:36 pm Asia/Calcutta

Hello mukesh. How may I help you?

mukesh 02:15:56 pm

do you know hindi??

Jithesh Pattathil - Indian 02:16:13 pm

mukesh 02:16:13 pm

????

muje withdrawal karna he to kitna time lenge???

22056421

check my account

and tell me

hello sir

muje paiso ki jarurat he muje 1500$ withdrawal karna he

aap logo ne 30 din le liye

abhi me withdrawal karna chahta hu

skrill me muje chahiye

kitna time lege withdrawal me ????

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:22:08 pm

abhi WD karki koi faida hai account is under investigation

mukesh 02:22:34 pm

lekin kitne time se aap log bol rahe he

itna time thoda lagta he

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:23:01 pm

i understand but company ne hane koi time line nahi diya hai

mukesh 02:23:06 pm

muje fund ki jarurat he

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:23:34 pm

thik hai phir aap WD laga do

dekho kiya hota hai

mukesh 02:23:57 pm

pehle aap final karo

senior department se puch lo

1500$ muje chahiye

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:24:57 pm

are bhai bola na senior department ne kuch nahi bola

mukesh 02:25:14 pm

lekin aise thoda chalega

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:25:39 pm

muje pataa hai but abhi aisa he ho raha hai

mukesh 02:25:42 pm

aap log aese hi fund fasa ke rakho ge to client ka kya hoga

aap kese bhi karo lekin muje aapna fund chahiye ..

30 din le liye he aapne

or investigation me itna time thoda lagta he 30 din se aap yahi bol rahe he

or abhi aap koi final date nahi de rahe

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:28:31 pm

jo mujhe pata hai maine apko bataa diya ab apke marze

mukesh 02:28:49 pm

yesa answer se kya hoga

tum yaar manager ho

koi responsible answer do ke bhai itni date ko fund aapko miljayega ...

aap har bar yahi bolte ho

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:30:27 pm

hame nahi batya gaya kitna time lagega tu mai apko kaise koi time de sakta hu

mukesh 02:31:02 pm

aapke upar kon he muje baat karaye ya chat transfer kijye

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:31:22 pm

app complaint karo

mukesh 02:32:06 pm

muje main head ka contact email dijye

ya contact number

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:32:52 pm

wo nahi hota mera pass

mukesh 02:33:37 pm

are yaar to aap answer barabar dete nahi or head ka email address bhi nahi dete

to mere paise ka loss hoga to kon jimedar hoga ?????

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:34:28 pm

aap complaint karo compliance@ironfx.com

mukesh 02:34:53 pm

muje withdrawal karna he aapki company ko bolo

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:35:17 pm

thik aap WD karo

mukesh 02:35:37 pm

lekin kab tak milega

vo bataye

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:36:26 pm

wo maine kiya baar bataya apko lekin ap same repeat karta ho tu answer tu nahi change hoga na

mukesh 02:36:34 pm

ya fir date dijye final ???

dono me se ek answer final dijye

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:37:17 pm

koi final answer nahi hai mera pass

mukesh 02:37:40 pm

ok.bye

thank you

Navin Chilka - Indian 02:38:00 pm

welcome

Duration: 23m 8s

Chat has been opened from website: IronFX™ | The Global Leader In Online Trading

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Company representatives' emails:

Kaushik Venkatasubramaniyan ; Navin Chilka ;

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IronFx 2015.05.26 05:50 #494

IronFX Daily Commentary | 26/05/15

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Portuguese bonds show contagion risk from Greece There’s a lot of talk nowadays that the EU could afford to let Greece leave the euro without worrying too much about the impact elsewhere. Don’t believe it! As I mentioned yesterday, the anti-austerity parties won big in the Spanish municipal elections on Sunday, plus the Greek Interior Minister Sunday said that the country didn’t have the money to meet pension and wage bills in June and also make required payments to the IMF. Result: almost all the major Eurozone stock markets that were open yesterday were lower (France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Greece – Germany was closed) and 10-year Portuguese government bond yields jumped 43 bps to 2.86% -- a huge move! Portuguese 10-year yields are now higher than they were before the ECB announced its QE program in January. The US stock market wasn’t open, but S & P 500 futures were lower.

Things look grim for EUR right now. It’s questionable whether Greece can make the EUR 308mn payment due to the IMF on June 5th, followed by another large payment on June 12. In total it has to pay EUR 1.6bn to the IMF in June. It will be touch-and-go whether it can make these payments. But rather than making concessions, Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis yesterday blamed creditors’ insistence on more austerity for the impasse on aid. There is talk in the market that Greece could potentially "bundle" all its principal repayments to the IMF that are due in June into a single payment to be made later in the month. This could buy Greece a few extra weeks for negotiations. However, that would probably be taken as a very risky move that could further increase pressure on its banks. It would not be well received by the markets.

Payments to the IMF are not the same as payments on bonds. If Greece can’t pay the IMF, it still might not be declared “in default.” However, the ECB might decide that the Greek banking system – which holds a lot of Greek government bonds as assets -- was no longer solvent and therefore there not eligible for ECB aid. That could result in anything from a very short deadline to reach agreement and therefore restore solvency, as happened with Cyprus, or they simply stop aid immediately. That would probably result in a bank holiday followed by capital controls and…who knows what else.

China is in a world of its own Meanwhile, things in the Chinese stock market go from good to better. Shanghai stocks are up 1.6% today at the time of writing and Shenzhen stocks up 2.8%. The Shandong Shihua Shenghua Group Co Sunday said the online part of its IPO was 826x oversubscribed. Is that a world record?

New Zealand trade surplus falls New Zealand’s trade surplus for April was expected to fall sharply and indeed it did, although not quite as much as expected. Both exports and imports were lower than expected. NZD and AUD were the only G10 currencies to gain against the dollar over the last 24 hours, probably because of the continued rally in Chinese stocks. While I don’t trust the Chinese stock market rally, which is fuelled by margin buying, I think that while it continues, AUD and NZD may well be underpinned.

Hawkish Mester Cleveland Fed President Mester said “the time is near” for the Fed to raise rates. “In my mind every meeting is on the table,” she said, including June. While Mester is not currently a voting member of the FOMC, her statements nonetheless show me that some members of the Committee are much more hawkish than the market is discounting. I think the risk of an early tightening is higher than people expect and the possibility of an early surprise should support the dollar.

Today’s highlights: During the European day, we have no major releases from the Eurozone or the UK.

From Sweden, we get the PPI for April. Following the dip of the CPI back to deflation, another sign of weakness in prices could prompt the Bank to increase its bond-purchasing program. This could keep SEK under selling pressure.

We have a busy day in the US. Durable goods orders for April are expected to fall, a turnaround from the previous month, while durable goods excluding transportation equipment are estimated to have risen at the same pace as in March (on a month-on-month basis). The focus is usually on the core figure where a positive surprise could suggest the possible start of a turnaround in business investment that would be bullish for the dollar. New home sales for April and FHFA housing price index for March are also due out. Following the better-than-expected housing starts and building permits last Tuesday, if the new home sales show a firming housing sector, this could strengthen USD. Finally, the Conference Board leading index, Richmond Fed manufacturing activity index, preliminary Markit service-sector PMI and Dallas Fed manufacturing index, all for May, and S & P/Case-Shiller house price index for March are also due out. Overall, positive US data surprises are now required for the USD to remain supported.

As for the speakers, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks on Global Economic Developments. He spoke on Monday as well and said nothing particularly new, just emphasized that the decision on whether to raise rates would be determined by the data.

Currency Titles:

EUR/USD continues its tumble

AUD/USD hits support at 0.7800

USD/JPY continued higher

Gold continues sideways

WTI hits resistance at 60.25

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Currencies Text:

EUR/USD continued declining on Monday, falling below the support (now turned into resistance) barrier of 1.0960 (R1). The short-term outlook remains negative, and as a result, I would expect the bears to take advantage of the break and drive the battle towards the 1.0865 (S1) support barrier. Both our short-term oscillators detect negative momentum and amplify the case for further declines. The RSI fell below its 30 line, while the MACD stays below both its zero and signal lines. On the daily chart, the move below the 1.1045 (R1) barrier increases the likelihood that the 13th of April – 15th of May recovery was just a corrective move and that the prior downtrend could now be resuming.

• Support: 1.0865 (S1), 1.0800 (S2), 1.0665 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.0960 (R1), 1.1045 (R2), 1.1100 (R3).

AUD/USD traded quietly yesterday, after hitting support at 0.7800 (S1). The price structure on the 4-hour chart suggests a short-term downtrend, hence I would expect a clear and decisive dip below 0.7800 (S1) to open the way for our next support territory of 0.7720 (S2). Nevertheless, taking a look at our short-term oscillators, I would be careful of a minor corrective bounce before the bears prevail again. The RSI hit support at its 30 line and edged higher, while the MACD has bottomed and poked its nose above its trigger line. As for the bigger picture, on the 19th of May the rate fell below the uptrend line taken from the low of the 14th of April. This confirmed the negative divergence between the 14-day RSI and the price action and supports that the recovery of the 14th of April until the 14th of May was just a corrective phase of the prior longer-term downtrend.

• Support: 0.7800 (S1) 0.7720 (S2), 0.7680 (S3).

• Resistance: 0.7860 (R1), 0.7930 (R2), 0.8000 (R3).

USD/JPY rebounded from 121.45 (S1) to continue its near-term surge. I would now expect the pair to challenge the 122.00 (R1) key resistance territory, defined by the peak of the 10th of March. A break through that could have larger bullish implications and perhaps open the way for the 124.00 (R2) territory, marked by the highs of June 2006. However, looking at our oscillators, I see negative divergence between both of them and the price action. Therefore, after it hits 122.00 (R1), the rate could correct lower before the bulls seize control again. On the daily chart, the rate is trading above the 50-day moving average and well above the 200-day one. This keeps the overall trend of USD/JPY to the upside. However, a clear close above 122.00 (R3) is needed to confirm a forthcoming higher high on the daily chart and signal the resumption of that trend.

• Support: 121.45 (S1), 121.25 (S2), 120.70 (S3).

• Resistance: 122.00 (R1), 124.00 (R2), 125.00 (R3).

Gold traded in a consolidative manner on Monday, staying between the resistance of 1215 (R1) and the psychological support barrier of 1200 (S1). The metal has been oscillating between these two hurdles since the 19th of May. Therefore, I would keep my flat stance as far as the short-term bias is concerned. On the daily chart, on May 18th gold failed to close above 1226 (R3). I believe that a decisive close above that barrier is needed to turn the medium-term outlook to the upside. For now, I will hold a neutral stance as far as the overall picture of the yellow metal is concerned as well. This is also supported by our daily oscillators. The 14-day RSI is back near its 50 line and points sideways, while the MACD, although positive, has topped and could fall back below its trigger line.

• Support: 1200 (S1), 1195 (S2), 1190 (S3).

• Resistance: 1215 (R1), 1220 (R2), 1226 (R3).

WTI traded higher on Monday after finding solid support at around 59.15 (S1), but hit resistance near 60.25 (R1) and then retreated. Although the rebound painted a higher low on the 1-hour chart, we need a move above 60.80 (R2) to have a forthcoming higher high and a positive near-term outlook. As a result, I would adopt a neutral stance for now. My choice is also supported by our technical indicators. Both the 50- and the 200-hour moving averages point sideways, while both our hourly oscillators stand near their equilibrium lines, pointing east as well. As for the broader trend, the break above 55.00 on the 14th of April signalled the completion of a double bottom formation, something that could carry larger bullish implications in the not-too-distant future. Therefore, I would treat any declines that stay limited above 55.00 as a corrective phase.

• Support: 59.15 (S1), 58.65 (S2), 58.00 (S3).

• Resistance: 60.25 (R1) 60.80 (R2), 61.70 (R3) .

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Press review ForexYard's Commentaries EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015,

IronFx 2015.05.27 05:40 #495

IronFX Daily Commentary | 27/05/15

Language English

Good US data lifts USD without lifting rate expectations A string of largely better-than-expected data yesterday lifted the USD against every currency that we track, including all 15 EM ones – a rare event – even though Fed funds rate expectations ended the day lower. US durable goods ex-transportation beat estimates, as did the capital goods orders (excluding defense and aircraft orders), a leading indicator of business investment. New home sales surged and house price gains beat expectations. Consumer confidence rose. The Markit service sector PMI was slightly lower but in line with expectations. The big disappointment was the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index, but that’s a function of the problems in the oil industry and not representative of the economy as a whole. Overall, the hoped-for improvement in US economic indicators is starting to come through and the US economic indicator surprise index is turning up. It looks like the Fed’s analysis of the US economy is turning out to be correct! Apparently, private sector economists are starting to revise up their estimates for US Q2 GDP.

Nonetheless, Fed funds rate expectations for Dec 2017 fell by 4 bps yesterday as US Treasury yields fell through the recent lows as global markets generally traded in a risk-off mode. Most European stock markets fell and the S & P 500 was down 1% -- perhaps Greek worries?

Oil falls sharply Oil prices fell sharply, with the strong dollar blamed for the move. The market is also hitting an inflection point: prices were rising on the idea that US shale producers would cut back on their output, but now prices have risen to the point that shale production becomes profitable again and the fall in the rig count has largely stopped. The lower oil prices are likely to hurt sentiment for the commodity currencies, which indeed were the main losers over the last 24 hours. Speaking of commodity currencies, the US Department of Agriculture’s Beijing bureau doubled its estimate of the size of Chinese whole milk powder inventories. That means less need to import milk powder for the rest of the year, which is negative for NZD.

Juncker confirms first week of June is deadline for Greece EC President Juncker said that there is an increasing sentiment among his colleagues that a default by Greece or its exit from the Eurozone must be avoided and that he will do everything in his power to reach a deal by the first week of June, which he said is the "obvious" deadline. But he added that everyone he’s spoken to insists that the IMF must be involved. This means his reported plan for an initial “mini-deal" without the IMF is not likely and that a full agreement is required. Given Greece’s objections to the IMF’s involvement, such an agreement may be difficult to achieve.

Bank of Japan minutes show Board members still confident of hitting their target The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its April 30 meeting. These are not the minutes from the most recent meeting but rather from the previous one, where they downgraded their inflation forecasts and said that they expect to reach the 2% inflation target in 1H FY2016 (April-September 2016), rather than during the current FY2015. This was only bowing to reality, given that inflation is currently zero. Members seem content with things the way they are; “many members” viewed QQE as exerting its intended effects and “many members” thought inflation was likely to reach the 2% target around 1H FY2016. Personally, I can’t understand why they think this. Overnight interest rates in Japan have been below 0.5% since 1995 and around zero since April 1999, with the exception of maybe two years around 0.5% in the mid-2000s, and inflation is still zero. I don’t know why they think anything will change now. Given the general satisfaction on the board, they are likely to wait at least until July, when the results of this year’s wage negotiation should be known and the MPC members update their forecasts again, before taking further easing measures. October, when the next formal revision of the forecast is due, seems more likely. Meanwhile, USD/JPY broke through a 30-year trend line on the upside – is this the start of a new leg up? It was noticeable that JPY was one of the weakest currencies overnight despite the risk-off atmosphere, which usually would cause the yen to strengthen.

Today’s highlights: During the European day, the only noteworthy indicators we get are the German GfK consumer confidence for June and French consumer confidence for May.

The Queen’s Speech in Britain will lay out the agenda for the new Conservative government in this session of Parliament. The plans are likely to follow closely the pledges made in the party’s election manifesto and so should not surprise the market.

From Sweden, we get the economic tendency survey for May. The forecast is for the indicator to increase a bit, which could strengthen SEK somewhat.

The main event will be the Bank of Canada rate decision. The market expects the Bank to remain on hold, so the impact on CAD will depend on the tone of the statement. BoC Governor Poloz may reiterate his optimistic tone seen in a recent speech on the economy’s prospects. Coming on top of the firm oil price in recent weeks, a positive statement could strengthen CAD somewhat.

As for the speakers, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks. Wednesday is also the first of a three day meeting of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers in Germany. The officials are expected to discuss global finance, regulation, growth and trade. There could be some confrontation between US Treasury Secretary Lew, who wants countries to boost economic growth, and German Finance Minister Schaeuble, who insists that Germany has no room to expand spending.

Currency Titles:

EUR/USD reaches 1.0865

GBP/JPY ready to challenge the 189.80 barrier again

NZD/USD finds support slightly above 0.7200

Gold collapses back below 1200

DAX pulls back

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Currencies Text:

EUR/USD continued its tumble on Tuesday and managed to reach our support territory of 1.0865 (S1). The short-term outlook remains negative in my view, and as a result, I would expect a break below that obstacle to drive the battle towards the next one at 1.0800 (S2). However, taking a look at our short-term oscillators, I would be careful that a corrective bounce could be on the works before the next negative leg. The RSI has bottomed within its below-30 territory and could exit that field soon, while the MACD, although negative, shows signs of bottoming as well. On the daily chart, the move below the 1.1045 (R2) barrier increases the likelihood that the 13th of April – 15th of May recovery was just a corrective move and that the prior downtrend could now be resuming.

• Support: 1.0865 (S1), 1.0800 (S2), 1.0665 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.0960 (R1), 1.1045 (R2), 1.1100 (R3).

GBP/JPY traded higher after hitting support at 187.75 (S2) and today during the European morning looks ready to challenge again the 189.80 (R1) barrier, defined by the peak of the 21st of May and by the highs of the 5th and 8th of December. The short-term picture remains positive in my view, and as a result I would expect a decisive break above 189.80 (R1) to open the way for our next resistance territory of 192.80 (R2). However, there is negative divergence between our oscillators and the price action, indicating that a corrective move could be on the cards before the bulls shoot again. On the daily chart, the rate is trading well above both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages, and this supports the continuation of the short-term uptrend. However, our daily momentum indicators give evidence of a possible correction as well. The 14-day RSI looks ready to exit its above-30 territory, while the MACD has topped and could fall below its trigger soon.

• Support: 188.60 (S1), 187.75 (S2), 186.00 (S3).

• Resistance: 189.80 (R1), 192.80 (R2), 195.00 (R3).

NZD/USD tumbled yesterday, falling below the support (now turned into resistance) hurdle of 0.7290 (R1). However, the decline was halted slightly above our critical support zone of 0.7200 (S1). Bearing in mind our proximity to that strong support zone, I would switch my stance from negative to neutral, as a strong rebound near 0.7200 (S1) could be looming. Our short-term oscillators support my choice to take the sidelines for now. The RSI rebounded from its 30 line and points up, while the MACD, although negative, shows signs of bottoming. On the daily chart, I see a trendless path between the key support of 0.7200 (S1) and the resistance territory of 0.7740. Therefore, I would stay neutral as far as the broader trend is concerned as well. I would like to see a clear close below the 0.7200 area before I start discussing the resumption of the prior longer-term downtrend.

• Support: 0.7200 (S1), 0.7120 (S2), 0.7000 (S3).

• Resistance: 0.7290 (R1), 0.7330 (R2), 0.7375 (R3).

Gold fell sharply yesterday, breaking back below the psychological barrier of 1200 (R2), and finding support at around 1185 (S1). The break below the key barrier of 1200 (R2) turned the picture negative in my view. I would expect the metal to challenge the 1180 (S2) hurdle soon, but I would be careful of a possible upside corrective wave before the bears prevail again. The reason is because the RSI bottomed within its oversold territory and move above 30 soon. On the daily chart, gold has been trading in a non-trending structure since the last days of March. Therefore, although I see a negative near-term picture, I would hold my neutral stance as far as the overall picture is concerned.

• Support: 1185 (S1), 1180 (S2), 1170 (S3).

• Resistance: 1195 (R1), 1200 (R2), 1209 (R3).

DAX futures slid on Tuesday, breaking back below the 11740 (R1) area and finding support at 11600 (S1). However, since the possibility for a higher low still exist, I would keep the view that the short-term outlook is cautiously positive. A break above the 11920 (R2) barrier is the move that could restore the short-term positive picture, which could prompt extensions towards our next hurdle of 12100 (R3). On the daily chart, the index rebounded from the long-term uptrend line taken from back at the low of the 16th of October. This keeps the longer-term path to the upside in my view. Therefore, I believe that any short-term downside extensions are likely to provide renewed buying opportunities.

• Support: 11740 (S1), 11420 (S2), 11200 (S3).

• Resistance: 11920 (R1) 12100 (R2), 12280 (R3).

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IronFx 2015.05.28 05:00 #496

IronFX Daily Commentary | 28/05/15

Language English

Will they? Won’t they? Greece and its creditors offered different views on their negotiations. Greek PM Tsipras said that a deal was “close” and government official said an agreement was being drafted, but there was no confirmation of that from the creditors’ side. On the contrary, German Finance Minister Schaeuble said he was “surprised” by the Greek comments, which may have been made in order to quell outflows from the banks. The ECB Wednesday declined to raise the amount of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) that it supplies to the Greek banking system, despite reports that some EUR 300mn a day (= EUR 1.5bn a week) is leaving the banks. This will put more pressure on the Greek government to come to an agreement, otherwise they risk having to declare a bank holiday and capital controls, which will not boost their popularity. It does seem to me that the end of this long drama is approaching, and it seems to me that the Greek side has more to lose. I would expect that PM Tsipras will give in, but whether he can get approval from the Greek parliament for an agreement is another question. EUR-NEGATIVE.

Japan retail sales disappoint Japan’s retail sales for April rose only 0.4% mom, less than forecast. The sluggish rise signals a weak start to Q2. Demand hasn’t yet recovered completely from the hike in the consumption tax a year earlier. JPY was not materially affected by this news in particular; rather, it seems to be under pressure generally, probably due to technical factors after it broke out of its recent range. (In fact the big move in USD/JPY coincided with the announcement of the Australian capital spending figures. It may be that investors felt that as AUD/JPY plunged, the yen’s appreciation vs AUD had gone too far and started selling JPY.)

Australian investment plunges In Australia, private capital expenditure for Q1 fell twice as rapidly as expected, down 4.4% qoq instead of the expected 2.2% drop. The Reserve Bank of Australia is looking for other industries to take up the slack as mining investment falls, but apparently that hasn’t happened yet. On the contrary, mining investment was down 4.1% qoq in Q1, while manufacturing investment was down a much faster 8.5% qoq. Added to the sluggish growth in China and this makes it more likely that the RBA will have to cut rates again. Expect AUD to remain under pressure (it fell the most of any G10 currency over the last 24 hours).

Today’s highlights: During the European day, the main event will be the second estimate of the UK GDP for Q1. The forecast is for the figure to be revised up to show a +0.4% qoq pace of growth from +0.3% at the preliminary estimate, confirming modest growth momentum in early 2015. Coming on top of the recent strong data that suggest an even better growth rate in Q2, GBP could strengthen. The low unemployment rate and the higher real wages following the country’s dip into deflation in April could improve consumer spending, which could add steam to the UK’s recovery.

Eurozone economic confidence for May is expected to decline a bit, while consumer confidence is expected to be unchanged.

In Norway, the AKU unemployment rate for March is forecast to remain unchanged. The official unemployment rate remained unchanged in March, so the probability for another unchanged reading is high.

In Canada, current account deficit is forecast to widen somewhat.

In the US, we get the initial jobless claims for the week ended May 23 and pending home sales for April. Existing home sales disappointed last Thursday, therefore, we could see another disappointment from pending home sales. Nevertheless, the recent housing data was robust. In any event, pending home sales are not that big a market-mover, so the market reaction is likely to be minimal as usual.

As for the speakers, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny and Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speak.

Currency Titles:

EUR/USD hits support slightly above 1.0800

GBP/USD hits support at 1.5300

USD/JPY breaches the 124.00 hurdle

Gold consolidates above 1185

WTI finds support at 57.40 and rebounds

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Currencies Text:

EUR/USD continued declining on Wednesday, fell below 1.0865 (S1), but hit support slightly above 1.0800 (S2) and rebounded to end the day virtually unchanged. The short-term outlook remains negative in my view. I would now expect a break below 1.0800 (S2) to confirm a forthcoming lower low on the 4-hour chart, and perhaps pave the way for the 1.0665 (S3) zone. Nevertheless, taking a look at our momentum studies, I would be careful that further upside correction could be in the works before the bears seize control again. The RSI edged higher after exiting its oversold zone, while the MACD has bottomed and crossed above its trigger line. On the daily chart, the move below the 1.1045 (R2) barrier increases the likelihood that the 13th of April – 15th of May recovery was just a corrective move and that the prior downtrend could now be resuming.

• Support: 1.0865 (S1), 1.0800 (S2), 1.0665 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.0960 (R1), 1.1045 (R2), 1.1100 (R3).

GBP/USD traded lower on Wednesday and managed to hit our support barrier of 1.5300 (S1). The short-term outlook is somewhat negative, but given that UK Q1 GDP is expected to be revised up today, I would switch my stance to neutral for today. I prefer to see a clear move below 1.5300 (S1) before I trust again the short-term downtrend. Such a break is likely to pull the trigger for our next support at 1.5160 (S2). Switching to the daily chart, the rate is still trading above the 80-day exponential moving average, but pretty close to it. That moving average stands marginally close to the 1.5300 (S1) support territory, which makes that zone even more significant. This is another reason I would take the sidelines for today.

• Support: 1.5300 (S1) 1.5160 (S2), 1.5100 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.5440 (R1), 1.5525 (R2), 1.5700 (R3).

USD/JPY rocketed higher following the violation of the 122.00 area on Tuesday and managed to reach and break the 124.00 (R2) territory, marked by the highs of June 2007. The short-term picture remains positive, and therefore, I would now expect the bulls to challenge the psychological barrier of 125.00 (R1). Our short-term momentum indicators detect strong upside speed and amplify the case for further advances. The RSI stands within its above-70 territory and points up, while the MACD lies above both its zero and signal lines, pointing north as well. As for the broader trend, the break above 122.00 confirmed a forthcoming higher high on the daily chart and signaled the continuation of the longer-term bullish trend.

• Support: 124.00 (S1), 123.50 (S2), 122.80 (S3).

• Resistance: 125.00 (R1), 125.80 (R2), 126.60 (R3).

Gold traded in a consolidative manner yesterday, staying marginally above the support zone of 1185 (S1). The break below the key barrier of 1200 (R2) on Tuesday turned the short-term picture negative, in my view. I still expect the metal to challenge the 1180 (S2) hurdle soon, but I would I would be careful of a possible upside corrective wave before the bears prevail again. The reason is because the RSI exited its oversold zone, while the MACD has bottomed and could cross above its trigger any time soon. On the daily chart, gold has been trading in a non-trending mode since the last days of March. Therefore, although I see a negative near-term picture, I would hold my neutral stance as far as the overall picture is concerned.

• Support: 1185 (S1), 1180 (S2), 1170 (S3).

• Resistance: 1195 (R1), 1200 (R2), 1209 (R3).

WTI found support at 57.40 (S1) on Wednesday and rebounded to hit resistance at 57.85 (R1). The short-term outlook is negative in my view, therefore a clear move below 57.40 (S1) could pave the way towards our next support area of 56.55 (S2). However, taking a look at our short-term oscillators, I would be careful that an upside corrective bounce could be on the cards before the bears prevail again. The RSI raced higher and is now approaching its 50 line, while the MACD stands above its trigger and points north. As for the broader trend, the break above 55.00 on the 14th of April signalled the completion of a double bottom formation, something that could carry larger bullish implications in the not-too-distant future. Therefore, I would treat any declines that stay limited above 55.00 as a corrective phase for now.

• Support: 57.40 (S1), 56.55 (S2), 56.00 (S3).

• Resistance: 57.85 (R1) 58.35 (R2), 58.95 (R3) .

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ForexYard's Commentaries Press review EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014,

IronFx 2015.05.29 06:10 #497

IronFX Daily Commentary | 29/05/15

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Dollar mixed to lower The dollar was mixed to lower this morning, gaining vs NZD, NOK, AUD (three commodity currencies) and slipping vs CHF, SEK, EUR, CAD and JPY. It was largely stable vs GBP. CAD initially moved lower with the other commodity currencies, but recovered along with oil prices. The gyrations in the Chinese stock market caused some tensions in EM markets (see below) but that calmed down overnight. US economic indicators were generally encouraging; although jobless claims rose a bit, pending home sales rose even more significantly, indicating a solid housing market. But longer-term Fed funds rate expectations fell nonetheless.

NZD plunges NZD was the standout currency over the last 24 hours, falling about 1.3% vs USD as commodity currencies in general were weak (except CAD). Most of the fall occurred yesterday at the beginning of the New York day. It may have been connected to a Reserve Bank of New Zealand paper arguing that “while international economic factors help explain the vast majority of why inflation in New Zealand is currently low, they do not shed additional light on the small portion of low inflation that is difficult to explain. Instead, domestic specific factors likely help account for the unexplained component of CPI inflation…” Such reasoning would suggest that the RBNZ should take a more accommodative stance since domestic factors may be depressing inflation in ways that they don’t fully understand. The currency rallied somewhat in New Zealand trading but then fell back as the ANZ business confidence index for May plunged to a two-year low. NZD seems to be the “short du jour” and I expect it to continue to decline.

JPY gains on Aso statements JPY on the other hand was somewhat stronger after Finance Minister Aso said at the G7 meeting that the currency’s recent fall was “rough” and that the government will continue to monitor FX movements carefully. This is basically the boilerplate official statement and means absolutely nothing. What do you want him to say – we don’t care about the currency and we’re going to ignore the FX market? They are always monitoring the FX market carefully. They have people whose entire job it is to monitor the FX market, 24 hours a day. That doesn’t mean they’re going to do anything about it. Maybe right now while the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is still going through the US Congress they want to avoid a major fall in the yen that might get some Congressmen upset, but after that’s passed, I think they will be happy to see it lower. I remain bullish USD/JPY (bearish yen).

Japan nearing deflation…still Japan issued the usual slew of end-of-month data today. The focus is on the National CPI rate for April and the Tokyo CPI rate for May. As expected, the national CPI declined to 0.6% yoy from 2.3% yoy, reflecting the fact that the consumption tax hike in April 2014 has now fallen out from the year-on-year comparison. The May Tokyo CPI was down to 0.5% yoy from 0.7% in April. The authorities can argue that this is because of the fall of oil prices etc. etc., but excluding oil and fresh foods, the “core of core” CPI was an even lower 0.4% yoy. So since Mr. Kuroda became BoJ Governor in March 2013 they’ve spent JPY 175tn ($1.4tn) to double the size of the BoJ’s balance sheet, and for what? Inflation has gone from -0.9% yoy to +0.6% yoy. That’s about $100bn per 0.1 percentage point of inflation. At that rate, it will take another two years and another JPY 175tn to reach their 2% target. The low rate of inflation increases expectations of further BoJ easing, although as we have mentioned several times, this isn’t likely to come for several months at the earliest. Meanwhile, the jobless rate declined to 3.3% from 3.4% and the job-offers-to-applicants ratio rose further, so why isn’t Japan seeing accelerating wage growth, a closing output gap, and rising inflation?

China stocks stabilize After Thursday’s 6.5% plunge in Shanghai stocks, the market fell another 4% in early trading today but stabilized and is up almost 1% at the time of writing. The key will be what happens Monday. The weekend newspapers will be filled with stories about the market – the question is, will they be warning people of further declines to come, or touting the decline as offering a new chance to get in? Another “Black Monday” or a buying opportunity? This is important for the outlook for EM currencies and the AUD and NZD, which are likely to suffer if China is seen as going into a slump.

Today’s highlights: The European day started with German retail sales for April rising 1.7% mom, beating expectations of a +1.0% mom rise. Eurozone’s M3 money supply is forecast to have risen 4.9% yoy in April, a slight acceleration from 4.6% yoy previously. The 3-month moving average is expected to accelerate if the forecast is met.

In Sweden, Q1 GDP is expected to show that the economy slowed in early 2015, which coming on top of the dip of the CPI back to deflation in April, raises the probability of further action by the Riksbank.

From Norway, the official unemployment rate for May is expected to decline, while retail sales for April are forecast to remain unchanged in pace from March. The market may pay more attention to retail sales. A surprise in either direction could determine the near-term bias of NOK.

The main event today is the second estimate of US Q1 GDP. The forecast is for the growth rate to be revised down to show that the US economy contracted 0.8% at a qoq SAAR, a downward revision from the already disappointing +0.2% qoq expansion seen in the first estimate. That’s even worse that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast of 0.1% growth and way below the San Francisco Fed’s estimate of 1.8% after proper seasonal adjustment. Overall, I wouldn’t trust the Q1 growth rate as we had several distortions in the economy and we cannot rely on this figure to indicate the underlying path of the US economy in early 2015. I would take the soft Q1 results with reservations and would mainly rely on the data showing any improvement in the economic activity in Q2. As I’ve noted before, significant positive data surprises are needed for the USD to remain supported. The Chicago Purchasing managers’ index for May and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment for May are coming out along with the surveys of 1-year and 5-to-10 year inflation expectations.

From Canada, the monthly GDP for March is expected to accelerate from the previous month. Nonetheless, that would not be enough for Q1 GDP as a whole to accelerate. A weak quarterly growth rate could put further selling pressure on CAD.

The meeting of the G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs in Dresden finishes. There will be an official press conference following the meeting, plus many of the participants are likely to talk to the press afterwards.

Currency Titles:

EUR/USD trades somewhat higher

AUD/USD rebounds from near 0.7620

EUR/JPY hits resistance at 135.80

Gold rebounds 1180

DAX hits resistance at 11800

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Currencies Text:

EUR/USD continued its rebound on Thursday and during the early European morning Friday is trading near the resistance barrier of 1.0960 (R1). Although the rebound may continue for a while, the short-term outlook remains negative in my view. A clear break below 1.0800 (S2) is likely to confirm a forthcoming lower low on the 4-hour chart and perhaps pave the way for the 1.0665 (S3) zone. Our momentum studies though support the case that the corrective rebound may not be over yet. The RSI continue to race higher and now looks ready to move above its 50 line, while the MACD, although negative, stands above its trigger line, and is headed towards its zero line. On the daily chart, the move below the 1.1045 (R2) barrier increases the likelihood that the 13th of April – 15th of May recovery was just a corrective move and that the prior downtrend could now be resuming.

• Support: 1.0865 (S1), 1.0800 (S2), 1.0665 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.0960 (R1), 1.1045 (R2), 1.1100 (R3).

AUD/USD traded higher on Thursday, after hitting support at 0.7620 (S1). The price structure on the 4-hour chart still suggests a short-term downtrend, hence I would expect a clear and decisive dip below the aforementioned hurdle to open the way for our next support at 0.7550 (S2). Nevertheless, taking a look at our short-term oscillators, I would stay cautious that further rebound could be in the works before the next negative leg. The RSI appears ready to exit its oversold zone, while the MACD has bottomed and could move above its trigger soon. As for the bigger picture, on the 19th of May the rate fell below the uptrend line taken from the low of the 14th of April. This confirmed the negative divergence between the 14-day RSI and the price action and supports that the recovery of the 14th of April until the 14th of May was just a corrective phase and that the prevailing longer-term downtrend is regaining momentum.

• Support: 0.7620 (S1) 0.7550 (S2), 0.7500 (S3).

• Resistance: 0.7690 (R1), 0.7760 (R2), 0.7800 (R3).

EUR/JPY continued to trade higher, but yesterday the advance was halted by the prior short-term uptrend line. Having that in mind and taking a look at our short-term momentum studies, I would expect the forthcoming wave to be negative, perhaps for a test at the support obstacle of 134.60 (S1). The RSI hit resistance twice near its 70 line and turned down, while the MACD, although positive, shows signs of topping. On the daily chart, the break above 131.40 on the 29th of April signaled a possible trend reversal in my view. This keeps the medium-term picture somewhat positive. Therefore, I would consider any declines that stay limited above 131.40 as corrective moves.

• Support: 134.60 (S1), 133.80 (S2), 133.00 (S3).

• Resistance: 135.80 (R1), 136.90 (R2), 137.70 (R3).

Gold declined yesterday, hit our support of 1180 (S2) and rebounded to trade again marginally above the support zone of 1185 (S1). The break below 1200 (R2) on Tuesday has turned the short-term picture negative in my view, but taking into account our oscillators I would be careful that further rebound could be looming before the bears prevail again. The RSI edged higher after exiting its overbought condition, while the MACD has bottomed and crossed above its trigger line. A clear dip below 1180 (S2) is now needed to confirm a forthcoming lower low on the 4-hour chart and signal further declines. Such a break is likely to open the way for our next support at 1170 (S3). On the daily chart, gold has been trading in a non-trending mode since the last days of March. Therefore, although I see a negative near-term picture, I would maintain my neutral stance as far as the overall picture is concerned.

• Support: 1185 (S1), 1180 (S2), 1170 (S3).

• Resistance: 1195 (R1), 1200 (R2), 1209 (R3).

DAX futures slid on Thursday after hitting resistance at 11800 (R1), but the decline was stopped by the 11600 (S1) support hurdle. Given that the index failed to move above 11920 (R2) to confirm a forthcoming higher high, I would switch my stance to neutral for now. A break above the 11920 (R2) barrier is the move that could restore the short-term positive picture, which could prompt extensions towards our next hurdle of 12100 (R3). On the daily chart, the index rebounded from the long-term uptrend line taken from back at the low of the 16th of October. This keeps the longer-term path to the upside in my view. Therefore, I believe that any short-term downside extensions are likely to provide renewed buying opportunities.

• Support: 11600 (S1), 11420 (S2), 11200 (S3).

• Resistance: 11800 (R1) 11920 (R2), 12100 (R3).

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ForexYard's Commentaries Press review EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015,

IronFx 2015.06.01 05:00 #498

IronFX Daily Commentary | 01/06/15

Language English

Italian voters send the same message to the authorities Sunday’s local elections in Italy sent the same message as recent elections in places as varied as Spain, Finland, and Poland: we don’t like what you’re doing to us. Voters abandoned Italian PM Renzi’s center-left Democratic Party (PD), while there was a marked rise in support for the right-wing Northern League and the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement.

The snub to the Italian ruling party follows the Spanish municipal elections just a week ago, which saw a huge swing against the ruling party and in favor of anti-austerity parties. At the same time, in Poland the President was defeated by a little-known right-wing member of the European Parliament who focused on jobs and the economy. Meanwhile in Finland, the new PM named the leader of the eurosceptic Finns Party as the country's new foreign and European affairs minister.

These results are probably EUR-negative in the short run in that they increase the political uncertainty. However, I believe that they are actually EUR-positive in the long run. That is, they will increase pressure on the EU to let up on austerity programs and focus on growth for now. They also make it more likely that the EU will compromise with Greece, out of fear that the voters will vote everyone out of office next time around. The Spanish newspaper Mundo reported last week that German Chancellor Merkel had intervened in the talks with Greece and told the finance ministers to work out some agreement. I suspect that she is getting worried about the electoral implications of continued chaos in Greece. However, the Greek newspaper Kathemerini Monday reported that no progress was made over the weekend, so perhaps the Spanish report was overly optimistic.

China’s manufacturing PMI rises China’s official manufacturing PMI for May rose to 50.2 from 50.1, suggesting that the Chinese economy has at least stabilized. This compares with the final reading of the Markit manufacturing PMI of 49.2, showing continued contraction. The official non-manufacturing PMI however fell slightly to 53.2 from 53.4.

Today’s indicators: We also get the final Markit manufacturing PMI figures for May several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. As usual, the final forecasts are the same as the initial estimates, thus the market reaction on these news is usually limited, unless we have a huge revision from the preliminary figures. UK manufacturing PMI is for May is forecast to increase a bit, which could prove GBP-positive.

In addition to the PMIs, German CPI for May is coming out after several regional states release their data in the course of the morning. As usual, we will look at the larger regions for a guidance on where the headline figure may come in, as an indication for the near-term direction of EUR. Nevertheless, following the introduction of the QE program by the ECB, the German CPI as well as the Eurozone’s CPI to be released on Tuesday, although important, are not big market movers anymore.

From Sweden, the Executive Board of the Riksbank will meet. Following the dip of the nation back to deflation, they could announce further easing measures to help boost prices. This could put SEK under increased selling pressure. Retail sales for April are also coming out.

From Canada, we get the RBC manufacturing PMI for May. Market usually pays more attention to the Ivey PMI to be released on Thursday.

In the US, we get personal income and personal spending for April. Personal income is expected to accelerate, while personal spending is forecast to decelerate somewhat. The yoy rate of the PCE deflator and core PCE are also coming out. The PCE deflator is expected to decelerate, while the core PCE is forecast to accelerate. The latter could add to dollar’s strength. The Markit manufacturing PMI and the ISM manufacturing PMI both for May are also due out.

As for the speakers, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen speak.

The rest of the week: RBA, ECB, US payrolls, OPEC and the peak of the Greek crisis? We have an action-packed week ahead of us with many events that are likely to impact the FX market.

On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. At their last meeting, the Bank cut rates by 25 bps, as expected and said that further declines in the currency seem likely and necessary because of the fall in commodity prices. Nonetheless, AUD/USD rebounded sharply after the news because the RBA removed the easing bias from its statement and sounded a bit optimistic over the country’s fundamentals. The forecast is for the Bank to remain on hold at this meeting and I would expect them to reintroduce the easing bias and leave open the possibility for another rate cut. This, along with the recent sharp decline in Australia’s capital expenditure in Q1 that shows the rebalance from the mining sector remains challenging for the nation, are likely to keep AUD under selling pressure.

On Wednesday, the most important event will be the ECB policy meeting. We would expect the ECB President Draghi to reiterate Governing Council’s view that the QE program will continue at least until the scheduled ending date of Sep. 2016 and maybe even longer if necessary. This again could put EUR under selling pressure. Another key point of interest will be any comments on the ECB’s Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to Greece.

As for the indicators, we get the US ADP employment report for May, two days ahead of the nonfarm payroll release. The ADP report is expected to show that the private sector gained more jobs in May than it did in the previous month.

On Thursday, in the UK, the Bank of England meets to decide on its key policy rate. There’s little chance of a change, hence the impact on the market could be minimal, as usual.

Finally, Friday is nonfarm payrolls day! The market consensus for May is for an increase in payrolls of 220k, just below the 223k in April. Another reading above 200k could suggest that the US labor market is gathering steam again and is likely to boost USD across the board as this would leave the September rate hike scenario alive.

On Friday we also have an OPEC meeting. A newspaper in Saudi Arabia said that OPEC is not expected to cut its oil production at its meeting in June. The organization is most likely to keep its production target at 30mn barrels per day, especially after the small rebound in prices from their January’s low levels. That would be a signal that the group is determined to continue with its policy of not giving away market share to non-OPEC producers even if prices fall. This could push oil prices down.

Perhaps the most important thing on Friday: Greece has to make a EUR 306mn payment to the IMF. Will they have the money to pay it? If they do, will they have any money left over? This will be a key pressure point for the Greek negotiations. This could be the start of the end for Greece. One solution may be for the country to wrap all the payments that it has due in June into one, which would be due later in the month. That would give them a bit more time to work out a resolution, if one can be worked out.

Between the Greek payment to the IMF, the OPEC meeting and the NFP, Friday will be a volatile day.

Currency Titles:

EUR/USD found resistance near 1.1000

GBP/USD fell below 1.5300

USD/JPY fractionally above 124.00

Gold near the upper boundary of the downside channel

WTI finds support at 57.40 and rebounds

Currencies Image Url:

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http://shared.ironfx.co.uk/Morning_Pictures_2015/June2015/WTI.PNG

Currencies Text:

EUR/USD fell on Monday after finding resistance near the 1.1000 (R1) barrier and the 50-period moving average. I would expect the decline to continue at least for another test of our 1.0865 (S1) support line. A clear break of that level could push the rate even lower, perhaps towards our next support of 1.0800 (S2). If the pair falls below that level, this could confirm a forthcoming lower low on the 4-hour chart and perhaps pave the way for the 1.0665 (S3) zone. Our momentum studies support this as the RSI found resistance near the 50 line and declined, while the MACD, already negative shows willingness to cross its trigger line and time soon. On the daily chart, the move below the 1.1045 (R2) barrier increases the likelihood that the 13th of April – 15th of May recovery was just a corrective move and that the prior downtrend could now be resuming.

• Support: 1.0865 (S1), 1.0820 (S2), 1.0665 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.1000 (R1), 1.1045 (R2), 1.1100 (R3).

GBP/USD traded lower on Monday, breaking below the support-turned-into-resistance level of 1.5300 (R1). The short-term outlook remains somewhat negative, and the pair could decline and test the 1.5160 (S1) support line. However, I would be careful for further declines as there is positive divergence between the price action and our momentum signs. The RSI gyrated around the 30 line and now points up, while the MACD, although negative, has bottomed and crossed above its trigger line. Even though we could see the rate lower, given our momentum signals, I would switch my stance to neutral for today. On the daily chart, the rate is trading just above the 80-day exponential moving average, which supports my stance to take the sidelines for today.

• Support: 1.5160 (S1), 1.5100 (S2), 1.5020 (S3) .

• Resistance: 1.5300 (R1), 1.5440 (R2), 1.5525 (R3).

USD/JPY retreated somewhat on Friday but remained above the 123.50 (S2) support barrier. During the early European morning Monday, the pair moved higher to trade again above 124.00 (S1). The short-term picture remains positive, and therefore, I would now expect the bulls to challenge the psychological barrier of 125.00 (R1). However, we could see a minor pullback before the next leg higher. This notion is supported by the negative divergence between our short-term momentum indicators and the price action that show a halt in the upside speed. The RSI fell below its 70 territory and points down, while the MACD crossed below its trigger line and points down. As for the broader trend, the break above 122.00 confirmed a forthcoming higher high on the daily chart and signaled the continuation of the longer-term bullish trend.

• Support: 124.00 (S1), 123.50 (S2), 122.80 (S3).

• Resistance: 125.00 (R1), 125.80 (R2), 126.60 (R3).

Gold made a few attempts on Friday to break above the upper boundary of the black downside channel, but none of them had the needed strength and the precious metal continued to trade within the channel. Given that the price lies just below the upper boundary of the channel, I would like to take the sidelines for now, at least until a clear trending structure is formed. Our short-term momentum signals support my neutral stance, as the RSI stands just above its 50 line and points somewhat up, while the MACD, fractionally above its zero line points sideways. In the bigger picture, gold has been trading in a non-trending mode since the last days of March. Therefore, although I see a negative near-term picture, I would maintain my neutral stance as far as the overall picture is concerned.

• Support: 1185 (S1), 1180 (S2), 1170 (S3).

• Resistance: 1195 (R1), 1200 (R2), 1209 (R3).

WTI found resistance near 60.70 (R2) on Friday and fell to trade few cents below the 60.00 (R1) resistance hurdle. The short-term outlook is negative in my view, therefore I would expect for a test of our 57.75 (S1) support line in the near future. The RSI found resistance at its 70 territory and declined, while the MACD shows signs of topping and could fall below its zero line anytime soon. As for the broader trend, the break above 55.00 on the 14th of April signalled the completion of a double bottom formation, something that could carry larger bullish implications in the not-too-distant future. Therefore, I would treat any declines that stay limited above 55.00 as a corrective phase for now.

• Support: 57.75 (S1), 56.90 (S2), 56.50 (S3).

• Resistance: 60.00 (R1) 60.70 (R2), 61.35 (R3) .

Benchmark Currency Rates:

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ForexYard's Commentaries Eur/usd Top Things to Know

IronFx 2015.06.02 04:40 #499

IronFX Daily Commentary | 02/06/15

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Fed tightening is back on the schedule; should support USD The dollar weakened Monday afternoon after German inflation accelerated and US personal consumption disappointed even though personal income beat expectations. The figures suggest that people are saving any extra money they get, not spending it, which may be good for their balance sheets but isn’t going to help a consumption-driven economy. Is this change in behaviour cyclical or structural? Is it due to demographic changes (an aging population) or job insecurity? The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, also was softer than expected.

However later in the day both the Markit and ISM manufacturing PMIs beat expectations and that turned sentiment around. Fed fund rate expectations for end-2017, for example, finished the day 9 bps higher even after being down slightly at the start of the session. As a result the dollar gained against almost all the currencies we follow. EUR/USD moved back below 1.0900 and USD/JPY broke to new highs for this cycle.

While the PCE was indeed below expectations, most of the negative surprise came from one component, inflation of financial services and insurance. Except for that, the other components showed steady growth. Moreover the ISM prices paid index rose to 49.5 from 40.5, beating expectations and suggesting that wholesale prices are not declining so fast any more. The inflation news was therefore not as bad as it looks and probably won’t discourage the Fed from hiking rates (as the Fed funds futures imply). That idea is likely to continue to support the dollar today.

Greece: lots of rumors, little substance Markets were affected late Tuesday in Europe by a report on Twitter that a deal on Greece would be announced. However it was quickly denied. In fact it was highly improbable, coming just hours after reports that there had been no progress over the weekend. More likely, there would be several days of stories in the press reporting gradual progress on some of the issues, including more positive comments from European sources, who generally remain pessimistic about the possibility of a successful conclusion. There might be a report of some “take it or leave it” final offer from the institutions.

There was a top-level meeting on Greece late last night with Chancellor Merkel, IMF chief Lagarde, ECB President Draghi, French President Hollande and EC President Juncker. The five met in person yesterday in Berlin to hammer out an offer for Greece. However, the statement following the meeting said nothing of substance, just that work must continue “with greater intensity” – so what have they been doing up to now, playing mah jong? -- which makes me doubt that they had anything new to offer. If they don’t, then it still comes down to when the Greek government will give in to the institutions’ demands. Watch to see whether any further details about this meeting leak out today, in particular whether they had anything new to offer Greece. If not, then the stalemate continues. Without a resolution today, it will be very difficult for Greece to make the payment on Friday (unless of course it decides to wrap all of its June payments into one, which is technically possible although they have so far rejected that idea).

And even if they do reach an agreement, remember that they are currently negotiating only on the release of the final tranche of the existing bailout. They haven’t even started talking about the third bailout yet. Those discussions would probably be even more difficult, which is to say, virtually impossible. However, the relatively narrow spreads over Bunds on peripheral Eurozone debt suggest that investors are not particularly concerned about these matters. They should be. So should holders of EUR.

RBA stays on hold; no bias The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met today and kept its cash rate unchanged. That was expected. What the market was looking for was whether they would reinstitute an easing bias (as I thought). In the event the Bank did not stipulate a bias one way or the other. They just said that the data in the future will tell them whether their stance is appropriate – in other words, they have a basically neutral stance that could go either way. They did say that “monetary policy needs to be accommodative,” but of course that just describes their policy as it currently is, not how it will develop. About the currency, they repeated last month’s statement that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary…” with no change. However, AUD/USD jumped about 30 pips on the news. The market is currently pricing in one more rate cut this year, but the neutral stance suggests there is the possibility of no rate cut, which explains the bounce in AUD. Personally, I expect the Chinese economy to slow and for that to dampen growth in Australia further, leading to at least one more rate cut and a weaker AUD.

Today’s highlights: During the European day, Eurozone’s flash CPI for May is coming out. The rise of the German inflation rate on Monday helped to dampen deflation fears in the region somewhat. A better-than-expected Eurozone figure could help to stabilize inflation expectations, which is good news for the ECB. Although it is clearly a sign that the QE program by the ECB is starting to have some positive impact, it will take time for all the measures to be enacted and take full effect. The market is currently expecting that the ECB won’t start hiking rates until Dec. 2017, more than a year after the earliest the QE program might end. In that respect, whether inflation is up a bit won’t make a whole lot of difference to expectations for near-term monetary policy and therefore for the euro. German unemployment rate for May is also coming out.

In the UK, we get the construction PMI for May, which is forecast to have increased to 55.0 from 54.2. On Monday, the country’s manufacturing PMI missed expectations and raised concerns over the expected rebound in Q2. Another soft figure, could give additional evidence of a moderate expansion in Q2 and put GBP under selling pressure. Mortgage approvals for April are also due to be released.

In the US, factory orders for April are expected to fall, a turnaround from the previous month.

As for the speakers, Fed Governor Lael Brainard speaks.

Currency Titles:

EUR/USD in a sideways mode

GBP/USD near the 1.5160 support level

USD/JPY touched 125.00

Gold near the upper boundary of the downside channel

WTI just above 60

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Currencies Text:

EUR/USD remained locked in a consolidation mode on Monday, within a range of 1.1000 (R1) and 1.0865 (S1). As the European trading session Tuesday gets under way, I would expect the bears to push the rate lower, at least for another test of our 1.0865 (S1) support level. A clear break of that level could push the rate even lower, perhaps towards our next support of 1.0800 (S2). If the pair falls below that level, this could confirm a forthcoming lower low on the 4-hour chart and perhaps pave the way for the 1.0665 (S3) zone. In the case of an upside move, it could stay limited below the 1.1045 (R2) zone. In the bigger picture, the move below the 1.1045 (R2) barrier increases the likelihood that the 13th of April – 15th of May recovery was just a corrective move and that the prior downtrend could now be resuming.

• Support: 1.0865 (S1), 1.0820 (S2), 1.0665 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.1000 (R1), 1.1045 (R2), 1.1100 (R3).

GBP/USD declined on Monday to find support around our 1.5160 (S1) zone and the lower boundary of the downside channel. The short-term outlook is still somewhat negative, but a break of the 1.5160 (S1) support line is needed for further declines. Following the weak manufacturing PMI on Monday, a soft construction PMI today could be the trigger for the decline. Nevertheless, I still see a positive divergence between the price action and our momentum signs, which make me watchful for possible bounce at least until the upper boundary of the channel. On the daily chart, the rate fell below the 80-day exponential moving average, which turned the broader picture negative again.

• Support: 1.5160 (S1), 1.5100 (S2), 1.5020 (S3) .

• Resistance: 1.5300 (R1), 1.5440 (R2), 1.5525 (R3).

USD/JPY surged on Monday after finding support near the 124.00 (S1) level to touch the key psychological barrier of 125.00 (R1). During the early European morning Tuesday the pair is trading near that hurdle, and a break of it could push the rate higher towards our next resistance of 125.80 (R2). Even though the short-term picture remains positive, we could see a minor pullback before the next leg higher. There is still negative divergence between our short-term momentum indicators and the price action that support the next move lower. The RSI just below its 70 territory points down, while the MACD failed to cross above its trigger line turned down again. On the daily chart, the break above 122.00 confirmed a forthcoming higher high on the daily chart and signaled the continuation of the longer-term bullish trend.

• Support: 124.00 (S1), 123.50 (S2), 122.80 (S3).

• Resistance: 125.00 (R1), 125.80 (R2), 126.60 (R3).

Gold surged on Monday, breaking above the upper boundary of the black downside channel and two resistance lines in a row, but gave back most of the gains immediately to trade only somewhat higher. The upper boundary of the channel turned into support line and during the early European Tuesday, the precious metal declined towards our 1185 (S1) support line. A break of that line could push the price lower, perhaps for a test of our next support at 1180 (S2). Our short-term momentum signals support a decline, as the RSI stands just below its 50 line pointing down, while the MACD, already in its negative territory, seems ready to cross its trigger line. In the bigger picture, gold has been trading in a non-trending mode since the last days of March. Therefore, although I see a negative near-term picture, I would maintain my neutral stance as far as the overall picture is concerned.

• Support: 1185 (S1), 1180 (S2), 1170 (S3).

• Resistance: 1195 (R1), 1200 (R2), 1209 (R3).

WTI surged on Monday but found resistance near 60.70 (R1) again on Friday and fell to trade few cents above the 59.55 (S1) support zone. Given the inability of the bulls to push the price above that hurdle, I would expect the next move to be a decline, perhaps for a test of our 59.55 (S1) support line. A break of that line could push the price even lower, perhaps towards our next support of 58.60 (S2). As for the broader trend, the break above 55.00 on the 14th of April signalled the completion of a double bottom formation, something that could carry larger bullish implications in the not-too-distant future. Therefore, I would treat any declines that stay limited above 55.00 as a corrective phase for now.

• Support: 59.55 (S1), 58.60 (S2), 57.75 (S3).

• Resistance: 60.70 (R1) 61.35 (R2), 61.80 (R3) .

Benchmark Currency Rates:

https://shared.ironfx.com/Morning_Pictures_2015/June2015/June02/benchmark.JPG

Market Summary Url:

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ForexYard's Commentaries 20 ways to trade USDCAD Technical Analysis 2014,

IronFx 2015.06.03 05:10 #500

IronFX Daily Commentary | 03/06/15

Language English

Is a deal for Greece near? Apparently there may have been more concrete results from Sunday’s meeting of European leaders than first appeared. Reuters reported that Greece’s creditors had drafted the broad lines of an agreement that they would put to Greek PM Tsipras today. A Greek government official said Tsipras would go to Brussels to meet with EC President Juncker this evening. It looks like Tsipras will have to accept the proposal and choose between a) submitting it to a vote in Parliament and risking a revolt in his party, or b) calling a snap referendum. Time is running short though. A Greek government official said the country would make a EUR 306mn repayment to the IMF on Friday as due if there was an agreement. That implies it might not make the payment if there isn’t an agreement.

The ECB's top banking supervisor, Daniele Nouy, said that Greece's banks remain solvent despite deposit outflows and the government's cash squeeze. This is significant because if the banks aren’t solvent, the ECB can’t lend to them. This indicates the ECB’s willingness to continue lending to the Greek banks. The ECB raised its Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to Greek banks by EUR 500mn yesterday, after refusing to raise it last week. This may be taken as a sign of encouragement to Greece: accept our conditions and we’ll help you.

EUR, Bund yields soar on hopes of Greek deal The rise in Eurozone inflation and hopes of a successful resolution to the Greek drama sent the euro sharply higher in late afternoon European trading yesterday. The sudden surge in EUR/USD caused investors to cut positions all around and USD fell against all the G10 currencies and almost all the EM currencies we track, except the TRY, even as Fed funds rate expectations rose (Dec 2017 +5 bps) and bond yields jumped (10yrs +9 bps). The rise in US yields however was modest compared to the 17 bps jump in 10-year Bunds, with similar (but smaller) rises in other Eurozone bond yields. The narrowing nominal yield gap explains in part the support for EUR/USD. On the other hand, the rising inflation in the Eurozone means that real yields at the short end of the European yield curve are even more negative (nominal Bund yields are negative out to four years). The real 2-year spread between Bunds and Treasuries has widened out to -135 bps from -129 over the last month even while the nominal 10-year spread has narrowed to -156 bps from -160 bps. Currency rates seem more determined by real yield differentials at the short end than by nominal yield differentials at the long end, so I’m not sure how long this EUR strength can last from a fundamental point of view, although of course there is the Greece risk premium to consider. The US data were irrelevant.

EUR/USD soared but was not able to break the recent peak of 1.1208, set on 22 May, when ECB Board member Benoit Coeure had said that the ECB would front-load bond buying in May and June. The course of the market today depends on what ECB President Draghi has to say (see below). Usually he is successful in calming the market. The historical pattern is that EUR/USD declines on ECB days (see table) and so I would expect EUR/USD to decline today too afterwards. It’s true though that “calming the market” today may mean reassuring investors on Greece, which could be EUR-positive, but I would expect comments on the topic to remain uncompromising so as not to take any of the heat off of Greece as the deadline nears.

Australia GDP Australia’s Q1 GDP rose 0.9% qoq from 0.5% qoq previously, beating expectations of +0.7%. Even so, growth slowed to +2.3% yoy from +2.5%. The slowdown is in line with the Bank’s view that the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Nonetheless AUD jumped on the news. It’s coming off the highs but remains above its pre-announcement level. The details show a continued slowdown in non-mining activity, which is disappointing. The news may be enough for the RBA to keep its neutral stance but won’t get them to shift to a tightening bias. It is thus positive, but limited, impact.

Today’s highlights: ECB meeting The big event of the day is of course the ECB meeting. No changes in policy are expected but ECB President Draghi could use the press conference after the meeting to counter upwards pressure on yields and EUR. He could also reiterate a clear commitment to continue the QE program at least until the scheduled ending date of Sep. 2016 and maybe even longer if necessary. He will have to convince the market that QE is working and the economy is improving, yet somehow warn against a sharp rise in rates and in the euro that could dampen the recovery prematurely. Another key point of interest will be any comments on the Greece debt crisis following the talks with EU leaders and the IMF on Monday. In particular, we will want to hear what his view on providing ELA to Greek banks is. The new round of staff projections will also be in focus. The ECB could revise up a bit its inflation and growth forecasts. Any comments on the Council’s commitment to the QE program is likely to have already being priced in, in my view. Instead investors could focus on any upward revision in inflation projections and a positive tone over Greece developments that could strengthen EUR.

As for the indicators, we get the final service-sector PMIs for May from the countries we got the manufacturing data for on Monday. As usual, the final forecasts for France, Germany and Eurozone are the same as the initial estimates. Eurozone’s retail sales and unemployment rate, both for April are coming out as well.

The UK service-sector PMI is forecast to have slid to 59.2 in May from 59.5 in April. After the mixed manufacturing and construction PMIs for May, a slide in the service-sector PMI is very likely. Another disappointment would add to concerns over growth in Q2. This could be GBP-negative.

In the US, ADP employment report for May is coming out two days ahead of the nonfarm payroll release. The ADP report is expected to show that the private sector gained more jobs in May than it did in the previous month. The Markit service-sector PMI and ISM non-manufacturing composite are also due to be released. Fed’s Beige book is also coming out.

As for the speakers, besides ECB’s Draghi press conference, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks and Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves holds press conference where conclusions from the Financial Stability report will be presented.

Currency Titles:

EUR/USD above the 1.1045/65 zone

GBP/USD broke above the downside channel

USD/JPY just above 124.00 again

Gold near found resistance several times at the 1195

WTI remains above 60

Currencies Image Url:

https://shared.ironfx.com/Morning_Pictures_2015/June2015/June03/EURUSD.PNG

https://shared.ironfx.com/Morning_Pictures_2015/June2015/June03/GBPUSD.PNG

https://shared.ironfx.com/Morning_Pictures_2015/June2015/June03/USDJPY.PNG

https://shared.ironfx.com/Morning_Pictures_2015/June2015/June03/XAUUSD.PNG

https://shared.ironfx.com/Morning_Pictures_2015/June2015/June03/WTI.PNG

Currencies Text:

EUR/USD surged on Tuesday breaking three resistance lines in a row. The move was halted few pips below the 1.1200 (R1) resistance hurdle marked by the peak of the 22nd of May. A decisive break of this territory could have larger bullish implication and might target 1.1265 (R2) resistance next. Looking at our short-term momentums however, we could see a minor pullback for a test of the 1.1065 (S2) area before the next leg high. The RSI found resistance just above its 70 line and turned down, while the MACD, although above its zero and trigger lines, show signs of topping and could turn down. Nevertheless, given the fact that we have an ECB meeting later in the day, I would prefer to stay on the sidelines as the ECB President Draghi could counter upward pressure on EUR, while the new economic forecasts could push the rate even higher.

• Support: 1.1115 (S1), 1.1065 (S2), 1.1000 (S3)

• Resistance: 1.1200 (R1), 1.1265 (R2), 1.1330 (R3)

GBP/USD rose on Tuesday breaking above the black downside channel it was trading since 27th of May, to find resistance at the 1.5365 (R1) area. During the European morning Wednesday, the pair is trading few pips below that zone and a break of it could target our next resistance at 1.5440 (R2). However, I would be skeptical for further advances as our short-term momentums suggest an ease in the upside speed. The RSI found resistance just above 50 and turned down, while the MACD, although above its trigger line show signs of topping below the zero level. On the daily chart, the rate rose above the 80-day exponential moving average, which turned the broader picture positive again.

• Support: 1.5230 (S1) 1.5160 (S2), 1.5100 (S3) .

• Resistance: 1.5365 (R1), 1.5440 (R2), 1.5525 (R3).

USD/JPY dipped on Tuesday after finding resistance near the key psychological barrier of 125.00 (R1). The pair found support around the 124.00 (S1) zone and a break of that level could extent the decline towards our next support of 123.50 (S2). Even though the short-term picture remains positive, there is still negative divergence between our short-term momentum indicators and the price action that support further declines. The RSI lies above its 50 territory and points down, while the MACD fell further below its trigger line. In the bigger picture, the pair lies above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages that keep the longer-term bullish trend intact.

• Support: 124.00 (S1), 123.50 (S2), 122.80 (S3).

• Resistance: 125.00 (R1), 125.80 (R2), 126.60 (R3).

Gold rose after finding support at the upper boundary of the black downside channel and the support level of 1185 (S1). The precious metal found resistance several times at the 1195 (R1) zone but none of them had the necessary strength to break that hurdle. So we have to wait and see whether the bulls are strong enough to start a new attempt to cross that next level and push the price higher towards the psychological figure of 1200 (R2). Looking at our short-term momentum indicators the RSI lies on its 50 line pointing sideways, while the MACD just above its trigger line moves along the zero line. These indicators amplify our neutral view to wait for a break of the 1195 (R1) resistance line to trigger higher extensions.

• Support: 1185 (S1), 1180 (S2), 1170 (S3).

• Resistance: 1195 (R1), 1200 (R2), 1209 (R3).

WTI surged on Tuesday breaking above the resistance-turned-into-support level of 60.70 (S1). WTI found resistance at our 61.35 (R1) level and retreated somewhat to test the 60.70 (S1) as a support this time. If the bears prove unable to push the price below that level, I would expect for another test of the 61.35 (R1) resistance and a break of it could extend towards our next resistance of 61.80 (R2). Our short-term momentums support this notion, as the RSI lies just below its 70 line and could move higher, while the MACD remains above its zero and trigger lines pointing sideways. On the daily chart, I would repeat that the break above 55.00 on the 14th of April signalled the completion of a double bottom formation, something that could carry larger bullish implications in the not-too-distant future. Therefore, I would treat any declines that stay limited above 55.00 as a corrective phase for now.

• Support: 60.70 (S1), 59.55 (S2), 58.60 (S3) .

• Resistance: 61.35 (R1), 61.80 (R2), 62.60 (R3) .

Benchmark Currency Rates:

https://shared.ironfx.com/Morning_Pictures_2015/June2015/June03/benchmark.JPG

Market Summary Url:

https://shared.ironfx.com/Morning_Pictures_2015/June2015/June03/table.JPG

currency tags:

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ForexYard's Commentaries USDCAD Technical Analysis 2014, Press review

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