Eur/usd - page 487
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Yesterday the EURUSD initially fell but found enough buying pressure to reverse and closed near the high of the day, although managed to close within the previous day range, which suggests being slightly on the bullish side of neutral.
The pair closed below all three moving averages 10, 50 and the 200-day that are acting as dynamic resistances.
The key levels to watch are: a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1347 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1237, the 200-day moving average at 1.1200 (resistance), and a daily support at 1.1097.
EUR/USD is slightly up since yesterday's FOMC meeting when it became clear that the Fed is not raising rates this month. Market participants were not surprised by the decision so the market environment did not change much. CMP: 1.1234.
Yesterday the EURUSD initially rallied but found enough selling pressure at 1.1237 to give back to the market most of its gains but closed in the green however near the low of the day, in addition managed to close above the previous day high, which suggests a weak bullish momentum.
The pair closed above all three moving averages 10, 50 and the 200-day that are acting as dynamic resistances.
The key levels to watch are: a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1347 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1237, the 200-day moving average at 1.1201 (support), and a daily support at 1.1097.
September Eurozone PMI Composite Index Slips To 20-Month Low
The Markit flash Eurozone PMI composite index declined to 52.6 for September from 52.9 the previous month and was the lowest reading for 20 months.
The data will maintain concerns over the growth outlook despite progress in the manufacturing sector.
The manufacturing index strengthened to 52.6 from 51.7 previously and was above the consensus forecast of 51.5.
In contrast, there was a decline in the services-sector reading to a 21-month low of 52.1 from 52.8 and was below expectations of an unchanged reading.
In the manufacturing sector, orders strengthened to a three-month high with export orders registering the highest reading for 30 months.
Services-sector order books rose at a weak pace and optimism surrounding the level of activity over the next 12 months declined to a 21-month low.
There was a small growth in employment, although job creation outside German and France declined to the lowest level for 15 months.
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EUR/USD forecast for the week of September 26, 2016
The EUR/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the week, but as we remain within the consolidation that we’ve been in for the last several months, I don’t have any real interest in trading this market from a longer-term perspective. I believe that there is still a lot of noise out there, and therefore it’s always impossible to risk any serious amount of money. Given enough time, we will break out, but we need to break down below the 1.1150 level or break above the 1.1350 level in order to do so.
German Economic Outlook Weakens Along With Eurozone; Investors Eye Fresh CPI Figures
The Eurozone’s main growth engine lost momentum in September, raising fresh concerns about regional stability in the wake of the Brexit vote.
A closely watched indicator of the German economy fell to a 16-month low in September, as a sharp deceleration in service activity offset sustained growth in manufacturing. The IHS Markit composite purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 52.7 from 53.3. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in economic activity.
“A big concern is the divergent trends within the economy, with service provides struggling to eke out any meaningful growth,” Oliver Kolodseike, an economist at Markit, said in a statement. “Weak demand continued to curb inflows of new business and companies reported a lack of work outstanding, boding ill for output growth in coming months.”
Despite being known as a manufacturing powerhouse, Germany’s economy is largely driven by services activity. According to The World Bank, services output accounts for 69% of German gross domestic product (GDP). The services sector’s share of GDP has actually increased over the past 20 years, a commonly observed trend in advanced industrialized nations.
IHS Markit also said the Eurozone composite index slowed to a 20-month low in September.
Germany, which accounts for roughly one-third of Eurozone GDP, expanded 0.4% in the second quarter, compared to 0.7% in the first three months of the year. Despite beating expectations, growth was largely subdued. As a result, the 19-nation Eurozone expanded just 0.3%.
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