Eur/usd - page 477
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
EUR/USD forecast for the week of August 29, 2016
The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned right back around to form a bit of a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a negative sign, so having said that I feel that will probably drift lower. However, I’m not willing to risk any longer-term trades in this market at the moment. I think that this is the domain of short-term traders, especially considering that the volume probably isn’t up to par at the moment. With this, I’m looking for short-term negativity.
On the last Friday’s session the EURUSD tried to rally but found enough resistance near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement to give back to the market all of its gains and closed near the low of the day, in addition closed below Thursday’s low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.
The pair is trading below the 10-day moving average that is acting as a dynamic resistance and is trading above the 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.
The key levels to watch are: a daily resistance at 1.1460, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1347 (resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.1293 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1237, and the 200-day moving average at 1.1165 (support).EUR/USD to Edge Lower on Fed Tightening Expectations
There is a strong case for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates at September’s policy meeting. Given that this is not priced in, there is scope for dollar gains against the Euro as long as this week’s employment data is not substantially weaker than expected. There is scope for EUR/USD losses to at least the 1.0900/1.1000 area and possibly the key 1.0800 area, although the US currency will still face considerable headwinds to more substantial gains.
US Federal Reserve policy will inevitably remain a very important short-term market focus. Growth rates are still relatively disappointing, although it is increasingly doubtful whether monetary policy is either a cause of or solution to structurally low growth rates.
In her speech to the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, Fed Chair Yellen remained more optimistic surrounding the labour market with comments that utilisation rates had strengthened. Very importantly, she also stated that the case for higher US interest rates had strengthened over the past few months.
Subsequently, Fed vice chair Fischer stated that Yellen’s remarks were consistent with a possible interest rate increase in September and that two rate increases were also possible this year.
Also late on Friday there were comments from Fed Governor Powell, which received little attention, but were potentially very important given the slightly different emphasis from recent comments. Powell commented that the Fed can be patient as it raises interest rates and not that the Fed can be patient in not raising rates.
He also commented that the Fed should take of advantage of favourable conditions to raise rates whenever possible to continue the process of normalisation.
read more
EUR: Incoming EZ Data Not A Game Changer; Limited Downside Risk
This week’s main focus will be on preliminary August inflation data, which we expect to confirm further stabilising price developments.
As such there is little scope of incoming data to make a case of rising central bank easing expectations ahead of the September ECB policy announcement.
In an environment of stable rate expectations the single currency should be driven still by risk sentiment in general and capital flows in particular.
Unless risk aversion rises considerably anew, currency downside is likely to remain limited. It must be noted that the single currency has become increasingly positive correlated with risk appetite during the last few weeks.
Yesterday the EURUSD went back and forward without any clear direction and closed in the middle of the daily range, in addition managed to close within Friday’s range, which suggests being clearly neutral, neither side is showing control.
The pair is trading below the 10-day moving average that is acting as a dynamic resistance and is trading above the 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.
The key levels to watch are: a daily resistance at 1.1460, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1347 (resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.1273 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1237, the 200-day moving average at 1.1168 (support), and the 50-day moving average at 1.1134 (support).
Pair Steady Below $1.12 as US Dollar Strengthens
The greenback was strengthening on Tuesday, with the EUR/USD pair trading around $1.1170 during the Tuesday session, down 0.2% on the day.
German inflation indices for August showed worse-than-expected data. CPI index for August showed unchanged pace of increase in prices on monthly basis, while the CPI on year-on-year basis accelerated in the same pace as in July, 0.4%.
In addition, Italian retail sales weakened slightly in June to 0.2%, down from 0.3% previously, while the yearly change improved to 0.8% from -1.5% booked in May.
There are no major data due during the US session and therefore the US dollar is expected to continue in the current bullish momentum after Friday’s bullish Federal Reserve (Fed) speeches.
Investors will pay attention to this week's US data, but the most focus will be on Friday's payrolls and wage growth figures for August.
"The market continues to remain sceptical over the possibility of a September rate hike although is more confident that the Fed will resume rate hikes this year attaching around a 60% probability that a rate hike will be delivered by December. It leaves plenty of scope for the US dollar to strengthen further in the near-term if the latest non-farm employment report is solid," analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi said on Tuesday.
The stronger support is around $1.11350, where previous lows are seen. If the pair drops below, the bearish trend would be renewed, targeting the $1.11 level. The resistance stands around $1.12.
The short-term trend is bullish, while above the mentioned support, but bulls need to start posting higher highs to confirm this bias.
Germany retail sales July mm +1.7% vs +0.5% exp
Germany July retail sales report 31 Aug