Eur/usd - page 458
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EUR/USD forecast for the week of July 11, 2016
The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, ultimately settling on a red candle. We did test the previous uptrend line and found resistance, so at that point I suspect that the market will continue to fall given enough time. It might be more of a grind than anything else, so it’s probably easier to short this market off of daily charts or even lower time frames. If we did get a break and a move above the uptrend line, at that point in time I could possibly think about going long. Until then, it’s “sell only.”
source
according to the news, oil reserves reduced to 2,2 million last week, yesterday this index was 6,7 million. oil falls. Analytics predicted only 2,5 million.. it's fine to trade)
The single currency marked a volatile session against the US dollar on Friday. But finally the opening price was close to the closing, respectively, 1.1061 and 1.1051. In the early hours bears prevailed and the pair hit the bottom for the day at 1.1002. Subsequently, however, the euro gained advantage and so the difference between the highest and lowest value was 108 pips. If expectations for further depreciation of the euro justify, we may soon expect a test of the support at 1.0970.
On the last Friday’s session the EURUSD went back and forward with a wide range but closed in the red although in the middle of the daily range and managed to close below the previous Thursday’s range, suggesting bearish momentum.
The pair continues to trade below all 3 moving averages the 10, 50 and 200 that should act as dynamic resistances.
The key levels to watch are: The 50-day moving average at 1.1214 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1097, the 10-day moving average at 1.1099 (resistance), the 200-day moving average at 1.1097 (resistance) and daily support 1.0900.Euro Bounces From Intraday Low, Defends $1.10 Again
The single currency was seen marginally elevated against the greenback on Monday afternoon, following a set of moderate up and down swings amid a data-light session.
The EUR/USD edged up 0.09% to $1.1058 in the afternoon, rising from an intraday low of $1.1015, while the US dollar index added 0.30% to 96.60 points.
Looking at the bigger picture, the euro managed to limit its losses with the help of the psychological barrier at the $1.10 level for the second consecutive session, despite the nonfarm-payrolls-induced turmoil seen on Friday.
Therefore, the cross remained locked in a narrow trading range of approximately 170 pips starting two weeks ago, once investors digested the unexpected Brexit vote.
The odds of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2016 remains almost unchanged, only marginally rising to 6% for the September meeting, from 0% after the payrolls report.
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Euro 'Perceived Safe Haven' Status Eroding
Since the ECB ventured into QE last March, the EUR had begun exhibiting qualities of a ‘perceived safe haven’ currency, strengthening during periods of risk off. One potential cause for this relationship is that ECB QE made the EUR more attractive as a funding currency and crowded positioning made it susceptible to short squeezes during risk off (Risky turn for USD). More recently, this relationship has started to deteriorate and EURUSD has become negatively correlated with the VIX since early May (Chart 11).
One possible explanation for this shift is that Brexit may be gradually sending Euro-centric shock waves to global markets. Our economists see one potential channel as anti-globalization posing downside risks to economic growth, which has caused them to downgrade their global growth forecast.
Another concern is the impact of rising risk premiums on debt maintenance in the periphery, with our European Bank strategists recently highlighting rising Italy NPL ratios as a growing issue.
We see value in owning EURUSD skew as Euro-centric risks are underpriced in our view. EURUSD skew is back to pre-Brexit levels allowing investors to enter sensible zero-cost risk reversals.
source
On Monday session the single currency remained close to unchanged against the US dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded in relatively narrow range and session closed only only 4 pips up. RSI remains in neutral territory but the pair continues to move below the averages. The negative outlook prevail, as next target appers to be 1.1020.
Yesterday EURUSD went back and forward without any clear direction but managed to close in the green, near the high of the day, although closed within the previous day range, which suggests being slightly on the bullish side of neutral.
The pair continues to trade below all 3 moving averages the 10, 50 and 200 that should act as dynamic resistances.
The key levels to watch are: The 50-day moving average at 1.1203 (resistance), the 200-day moving average at 1.1100 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1097, the 10-day moving average at 1.1090 (resistance) and daily support 1.0900.