Eur/usd - page 435
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German economy likely to slow in spring - Bundesbank
Latest Buba monthly report
Resistance: 1.1350; 1.1465; 1.1620.
Preview: Euro-zone: HICP, Final (Apr)
EUR/USD didn’t move significantly on Tuesday and continued trading at familiar levels for the second consecutive day. The euro depreciated softly to 1.1311 and reached extremes at 1.1348 and 1.1301. Fed minutes failed to support the US dollar. Bears remain in the leading position, which will be reinforced by break of 1.1280.
Yesterday EURUSD initially rose but found enough selling pressure again at the 50-day moving average to give back all of its gains and closed in the red, near the low of the day, but managed to close within the previous day range, suggesting being slightly on the bearish side of neutral.
The pair is trading below the 10 and the 50-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic resistances although still trading above the 200-day moving average that is acting as a dynamic support.
The key levels to watch are: Daily resistance at 1.1459, the 10-day moving average at 1.1358(resistance), the 50-day moving average at 1.1333 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1237, a swing low at 1.1141 (support) and a daily support at 1.1097.EUR/USD: Euro Trades Weaker Amid Slowing EU Inflation
According to the latest Eurostat release, the CPI decelerated sharply in April from 1.2% to 0.0% month-on-month. The yearly print turned negative and came out at -0.2%. In addition, the core gauge stayed at 0.7% year-on-year.
The euro kept trading near daily lows after these numbers and the EUR/USD pair was spotted around $1.1260, with further downward movement possible in the coming hours.
The pair is now breaking below the bullish trend line at March 24 and April 25 lows. This should be a bearish signal, targeting the first key support of $1.1230/40. If the euro falls below, further deterioration toward $1.1140 is expected. On the other hand, the resistance for today is at $1.13 and $1.1340 afterward.
From the US dollar perspective, the minutes from the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be published and should be of major importance as it might reveal further information about the thinking and the hawkish/dovish mood on the committee.
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French Jobless Rate Steady in Q1
The French unemployment rate posted no change for the three months ending March, according to a report from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) released on Thursday.
The ILO measure of the unemployment rate in metropolitan France came in at 9.9% for the reported quarter.
Analysts had predicted the figure would tick down to 9.9% in the reported period.
The youth unemployment rate of the population aged 15-24 years increased in the first quarter of 2016 to 24.2%.
The average ILO unemployment rate in metropolitan France and overseas departments decreased to 10.2%, keeping the same pace like in the last quarter of 2015. Market consensus had also bet on 10.2%.
Among unemployed, 1.2 million were seeking a job for at least one year. The long-term unemployed rate stood at 4.3% of active population in Q1 2016. It increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, as over a year.
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On Wednesday session the euro recorded its worst performance against the dollar since mid-April after Fed minutes hinted for a rate hike next month. The single currency plummeted and closed at levels of daily low at 1.1215. Negative mood is still actual, but the relative strength index hints overselling. Eventual correction could bring bears back.