Eur/usd - page 383
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The ECB announcement shock the EUR/USD out of it's coma and dropped it under the daily support at 1.0806 but it bounced over Fibonacci support at 1.0845, I see that the pair will stay under this level while the US data supporting the Dollar.
The ECB announcement shock the EUR/USD out of it's coma and dropped it under the daily support at 1.0806 but it bounced over Fibonacci support at 1.0845, I see that the pair will stay under this level while the US data supporting the Dollar.
Well still this was not enough, EUR/USD returned to open price for the day.
EUR/USD: Divergence Strikes Again; How To Trade It? - BNPP Today’s ECB press conference (21 January) was considerably more dovish than expected, notes BNP Paribas.
"This message is similar to the signal delivered at the October 2015 meeting which heralded the December rate cut. Our economists note that the inclusion of “possibly” allows the ECB some room to forgo new measures, but markets will need to price a high likelihood of action following this meeting," BNPP adds.
BNPP sees the following implications:
-"The decline in eurozone front-end rates in anticipation of easing should be broadly negative for the EUR, as rate differentials move against the currency. To the extent that ECB easing expectations support the broader risk environment, the impact on the EUR could be magnified, as funding currencies lose ground and scope for Fed tightening increases.
- The ECB has once again reinforced its sensitivity to declining inflation expectations and the impact of EUR appreciation on this process. The ECB’s EUR effective exchange rate was pushing into positive territory on a y/y basis and this seems to be a factor pushing the ECB to act. The message is clear – if the EUR strengthens the ECB will act, making the riskreward very attractive for selling the EUR near the top end of its ranges.
- The ECB message reinforces the symmetrical aspects of policy divergence, in that the same factors which have forced the market to reduce Fed rate hike expectations are now pushing the ECB to signal more action," BNPP clarifies.
source
The single currency recorded a modest decline for second consecutive day against the US dollar. After a volatile session, the euro lost 15 pips. The price managed to break through the first support at 1.0854, but immediately after the ECB meeting the pair bounced back. If bearish sentiment continue, EUR / USD will break first support at 1.0854 for a second time.
EUR/USD was indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, formed bottom of 1.0771, but then rose again and closed at 1.0874. The outlook remains neutral for now. Resistance for the day is seen at 1.0885 (hourly EMA 200). A clear break above this level could lead to upward pressure re-testing 1.0969. Immediate support is around 1.0800 - 1.0776, whose breach could trigger bearish pressure testing 1.0700. On the upside, a clear break and daily/weekly close above 1.0969 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.1060 and the trend line resistance next week. The longer, however, the price remains below the trend line resistance, the bearish scenario should remains intact.
On yesterday session the EURUSD initially tried to rise but found enough selling pressure to sell-off and close in the red, in the middle of the daily range, in addition managed to close below the previous day low, suggesting a weak bearish momentum.
The pair closed below the 10-day moving average however is still above the 50-day moving average that is acting as a dynamic support.
The key levels to watch are: 200-day moving average at 1.1046 (resistance), previous swing high at 1.0975 (resistance), 10-day moving average at 1.0881 (resistance), the 50-day moving average at 1.0852 (support) and the last swing low at 1.0805 (Support).
If EUR/USD succeeded to close under support level 1.0800 and break the sideways trading it will open a chance for more movement next week.
If EUR/USD succeeded to close under support level 1.0800 and break the sideways trading it will open a chance for more movement next week.
That is exactly what i was expecting, Let's hope next week will come with better opportunities.
EUR/USD forecast for the week of January 25, 2016 The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned back around to fall into the 1.08 handle. It now looks as if the market may try to drop a little bit from here, but long-term traders will find this market difficult as there is quite a bit of noise just below. If we break down, the market should then head the 1.05 level, but at this point in time we believe short-term traders will probably be much more interested in this market than the longer-term ones.
source
EUR/USD: Pair Returns Above $1.08 The most traded currency pair in the world ticked higher on Monday and was hovering above the $1.08 handle again. This is the key support for the pair and if broken, a further decline is likely.
Later in the day, German Ifo surveys for January are due and should remain near December levels, with no volatility expected after the release as the data usually gets ignored by market participants.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi is due to speak at the Deutsche Borse New Year's reception in Frankfurt later in the day during the US session. Traders will pay attention to this speech as Draghi might comment on the future possible developments at the March meeting. He might also return to the ECB's press conference from the last week, which sent the pair back to the 1.08 handle.
"The ECB President Mario Draghi pledged 'no limits' to the central banks determination to support economic conditions in Europe. Given that he said something similar prior to the December meeting at the end of last year, and then failed to deliver, there is a risk he could disappoint again, but for now markets appear to be buying the latest narrative, and extending last weeks rebound," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said in a note.
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