Eur/usd - page 382

 

For more than a week there is no chance on the EUR/USD, The trading range is tight and the pair is trading sideways.

 

The EUR/USD tested 1.0984 resistance level today but unsuccessfully could not pass over it and fell under the 1.0900 level and the pair keep on moving in the same range.

 

EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, staying near month peak against the backdrop of ever more likely that the Federal Reserve may slow the second rise in interest rates after the International Monetary Fund lowered its global economic growth forecasts for the year.

 

On Wednesday session the single currency recorded a modest decline against the US dollar. After a volatile session the euro lost 18 pips. The pair failed to break the range in which was traded recently. A significant challenge for the pair downwards appear at levels 1.0854 and a possible breakthrough will enable the continuous decrease.

 

On yesterday session the EURUSD initially tried to rise but found enough resistance at the previous swing high at 1.0984 to reverse and close in the red, near the low of the day, in addition managed to close within the previous day range, suggesting that the pair should continue with the consolidation.

The pair closed above the 10 and the 50-day moving averages that are acting as a dynamic support.

The key levels to watch are: 200-day moving average at 1.1046 (resistance), previous swing high at 1.0984 (resistance), 10-day moving average at 1.0891 (support), the 50-day moving average at 1.0848 (support) and the last swing low at 1.0805 (Support).

 

Barclays forex strategists revealed that they prefer to sell EUR/USD in it's attempts to growth, which will probably be limited by resistance in the $ 1.1060.

 

Draghi tips the nod to further action in March Draghi starts the presser

  • Expects rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period
  • Downside risks have increased again
  • Inflation weaker than expected due to external risks
  • Necessary to review and consider mon pol stance in March, when new projections are published
  • Need to continue work to make sure that technical conditions are in place to make use of full range of policy tools
  • That's the bomb drop right there

    • Survey indicators point to ongoing GDP growth momentum in Q4
    • Expects recovery to proceed
    • Policy measures should continue to support domestic demand
    • Low oil prices support household consumption
    • Fiscal stance in EZ becoming slightly expansionary
    • Inflation expected to remain a very low or negative in 2016
    • Risk of second round effects should be closely monitored

    EURUSD was slammed down to 1.0780 but is back a handful above 1.0800

  • ECB policy has improved borrowing conditions
  • Decisive action is needed from other policy areas
  • Structural reforms needed to help cyclical recovery

Now into his usual bluster about structural reforms

source

 

Waiting to go short.

 

Here we go with the March ECB expectations - BNP say sell the euro down to 1.0400 Once bitten, twice shy is not a phrase much used by some market participants

BNP say that Draghi's presser was more dovish than expected and that the message was similar to the Oct meeting which laid the ground work for the move in Dec.

As such they recommend selling EURUSD at 1.0830 (they should be filled now) for a target of 1.0400 and a stop at 1.1005.

There's no doubt that many analysts are beavering away at working out what the ECB may deliver but I think that in most cases we won't be getting quite the pre-match excitement as we did for the Dec meeting. As I mentioned in my Draghi review post, I see a greater risk of markets underestimating the ECB this time because of getting it so wrong last time.

Only time will tell but as far as a lot of ECB governing council members go, if Dec was a hard sell for action, March isn't going to be any easier.

 

The dollar remained almost unchanged against the other major currencies on Wednesday, even after disappointing US economic data and concerns over declining oil prices continued to support the yen and Swiss franc. EUR/USD ended slightly lower at 1.0889.