Eur/usd - page 373
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Few hours for the end of 2015 with all its profits and losses, I wish you all a happy new year and a very successful and profitable 2016.
EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – January 4-8, 2016 The EUR/USD ended the week on the low end of its current trading range at 1.0855. The euro has dropped nearly 10% against the dollar this year, mainly due to policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. In March, the ECB launched an aggressive bond-buying program to boost economic growth and inflation, while the Fed in December raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.
From a structural perspective, we think reduced and contained fiscal and current account deficits combined with a 5% unemployment rate leave the US economy and, by extension, the USD, in good shape. Lower deficits and tighter monetary policy effectively means the supply of USDs in the global financial system will become somewhat scarcer in 2016.
The USD bull trend remains well-entrenched. The US dollar (USD) will regain renewed impetus in the months ahead, fueled by growth and interest rate differentials. In addition, the USD will benefit from the structural liquidity premium provided by deep equity and debt securities. Many market participants are already heavily invested in the USD-strengthening trade
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Few hours for the end of 2015 with all its profits and losses, I wish you all a happy new year and a very successful and profitable 2016.
Thank you, same to you!
It'll be interesting to see what the first week brings.
EUR/USD forecast for the week of January 4, 2016 The EUR/USD pair fell during the course of the week, testing the 1.10 level at one point. This market simply continues to consolidate between the 1.10 level and the 1.08 handle, so therefore we don’t necessarily like trading this market from a longer-term perspective. If we did break above the 1.11 handle, the market then should reach towards the 1.15 handle given enough time. If we break down below the 1.08 level, this pair then goes down to the 1.05 level. However, this market looks very comfortable in this range at the moment.
Euro Hovers at Daily Highs Amid PMI Data The euro bounced from its overnight lows and crawled above the $1.09 handle, taking advantage of the US dollar index weakness and the expectation of upbeat manufacturing data across the euro zone.
The euro extended overnight gains to hit its intraday high at the European open. The EUR/USD bounced from its daily low of $1.0827 to its daily highs of $1.0946 right after the market open. The shared European currency was seen 0.74% higher at $1.0944.
The euro booked its second consecutive annual decline versus the dollar, down 10% in 2015. However, the dollar started the first trading day of 2016 lower when the US dollar index lost 0.24% to 98.442.
European traders will focus on a data-filled session with manufacturing PMIs in focus, with the expectation of sector growth in major European economies.
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On the last session day the EURUSD fell and closed in the red, near the low of the day in addition managed to close below previous day low, suggesting a strong bearish momentum is settling in.
The pair closed below 10-day moving average that was acting as a dynamic support and now should turn to a dynamic resistance.
The key levels to watch are: the 200-day moving average at 1.1064 (resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.0924 (resistance), the 1.0900 (resistance) and 1.0819 (support).
The euro declined against the dollar in the last working day of 2015. The single currency broke the neutral move and lost significant ground against the dollar. If bearish sentiment continue in the future, the support at 1.0795 will be overcome. Thursday session started at 1.0930 and the negative trend became prevalent around noon. It continued to the very end and thus the price of closure coincided with the lowest value for the day - 1.0858.
Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI Dec mm -0.1% vs 0.0% prev
Latest German regional data now out
Softer monthly reading in line with others and we shouldn't get any surprises from the German reading as a whole at 13.00 GMT
German Inflation Well Below Forecasts in Dec: CPI
Consumer prices in Germany unexpectedly slowed their growth in December, an official preliminary reading said Monday, as inflation remained well below the targeted levels set by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Inflation in the euro zone's largest economy rose 0.3% year-on-year during the final month of 2015, down from the 0.4% growth seen in November, the Federal Statistics Office said.
Analysts had been betting on growth of 0.2% in December.
On a monthly basis, the gauge actually trashed 0.1% during the reported month, down from the anemic 0.1% upturn seen previously.
Market consensus had bet on 0.2% growth .
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