Eur/usd - page 341
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now euro trading at 1.1444 its critical level, i agree next level to watch is 1.1460
EUR/USD: Pair Targets $1.1450 as US Retail Sales Disappoint
US retail sales for September ticked higher to 0.1% from the downwardly revised 0.0% month-on-month, while the control core gauge dropped from 0.2% to -0.1% and the ex auto subindex declined to -0.3% from -0.1% previously, the US Census Bureau informed market participants on Wednesday.
The dollar dropped somewhat after the release, pushing the pair to fresh intra day highs trading just below the $1.1450.
Of more importance will be Thursday's US inflation data and with Germany and the UK already falling back to deflation in September, the same is expected for the US.
The single currency was bid again on Wednesday and conquered the $1.14 mark amid risk-off trading, which supported the euro and the yen on currency markets and sent down European stock indices. The euro now tends to rise in times of turmoil on the financial markets as it has become a funding currency for Carry Trades, mainly due to zero interest rates in the euro zone.
"While we understand that the euro is deriving support from the change in flows due to the increased financial market volatility and due to easing Fed hike expectations, we believe the market is under-estimating the potential for ECB action," analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi believe.
Investors reduced their bets on rate hikes and futures on the fed funds now indicate that the much anticipated lift-off is unlikely to start before March 2016, which is keeping the greenback pressured.
Earlier in the session, industrial production in the euro zone for August dropped from 0.6% to -0.5% month-on-month, while the yearly change printed 0.9%, also down from 1.9% previously, but this had no impact on the euro.
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EUR/USD broke yesterday resistance 1.1400 and now testing 1.1470 I am still bullish on the pair.
EUR/USD surges to monthly high, amid downbeat retail sales data
EUR/USD surged on Wednesday, amid a wave of downtrodden economic data on both continents to close above 1.14 for the first time in more than a month.
The currency pair traded in a broad range between 1.1378 and 1.1489, before settling at 1.1469, up 0.0091 or 0.80% on the session. At one point, the euro reached its highest level against the dollar since late-August. The euro has closed higher against its American counterpart in four of the last five and seven of the last 10 sessions. Over the last month of trading, EUR/USD has gained roughly 1.20% in value.
EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.1133, the low from October 1 and was met with resistance at 1.1625, the high from Aug. 25.
On Wednesday morning, the U.S. Department of Commerce said retail sales ticked up 0.1% in September, in line with the low end of consensus estimates. For the month gasoline sales plunged by 3.2%, pulling down the overall reading. The core reading, minus auto and gas sales, remained flat on a monthly basis, but was still up by 3.8% over the last year.
Elsewhere, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index slumped by 0.5% in September, below low estimates of consensus forecasts for a 0.4% monthly loss. On a yearly basis, the data is just as grim. Over the last 12 months, producer prices have fallen by 1.1%, down from a decline of 0.8% in August.
In the euro zone, industrial production fell by 0.5% in August, underscoring the impact of cascading demand for automobiles in Europe and machine equipment in China. On a yearly basis, the reading increased only 0.9%, far below expectations for a gain of 1.8%.
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The euro marked increase against the dollar on Wednesday. The session was very successful for the single currency, and bulls prevailed from the beginning to the end of trading. As a result, the resistances at 1.1436 and 1.1460 were broken. If the positive momentum continue in the future, currencies will test key level at 1.1559. Wednesday session started at 1.1378 and finished with 95 pips higher. Peak of the day was reached shortly before the end of the trading day, at 1.1478.
EUR/USD: ECB's Nowotny Talks Down Euro From 2-Mth High
European traders will focus again on the US session, as macro developments in the world's largest economy shape speculations over the Federal Reserve (Fed), while the European calendar offers no eventful data.
Despite edging higher at the European open to hover near a 2-month high, the trajectory of the euro soon switched after Governor of the National Bank of Austria and European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny spoke out about the need for the ECB to adopt additional sets of instruments, including structural tools, as the inflation target is still distant.
The euro lost 0.38% to $1.1430 within minutes of Nowotny's comments.
As a result of a much weaker PPI reading, investors attention will stay in the US, with eyes on the September CPI number. US inflation in September is expected to come in at -0.1% on the headline number and 1.8% on the core.
With the disappointing set of US data this week, "it is becoming increasingly clear that the almost 9% increase in the US dollar index seen from the start of the year to August effectively functioned as a 'phantom rate hike' by considerably tightening US financial conditions," Angus Nicholson from IG wrote on Wednesday.
On Monday this week, Fed board member Lael Brainard argued that "the massive strengthening of the US dollar has effectively functioned as equivalent to two US rate hikes. With US CPI inflation still at 0.2% year-on-year, real interest rates would increase dramatically in the event of a rate hike."
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Yesterday the EURUSD rallied with a wide range and closed in the green near the high of the day, above the 1.1460 resistance.
It could have found some resistance and we may see a pullback before another move upward.
The key levels to watch are 1.1556 (Resistance), 1.1460 (Resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.1336 (support) and 1.1237 (support).
Euro Sold Across The Board As ECB Mulls More QE
The euro tumbled across the board in early European dealing today on the back of comments by ECB member Ewald Nowotny who suggested that the central bank will need new instruments to include structural changes for further implementation of QE. Mr. Nowotny noted that inflation in the Eurozone remains stubbornly low, hinting that the central bank will not only extend but will likely add some fresh measures to its QE program at its meeting next week.
Although it is difficult to surmise just what specific measure the ECB would implement - it is highly unlikely for example that it would follow the BOJs lead and begin buying equities as well as sovereign bonds - the comments by Mr. Nowotny clearly indicate that policymakers are concerned about the stalling recovery in the region and the persistent disinflationary forces still affecting the economy.
The combination of a stronger euro, lower oil prices and slumping demand from China have all combined to keep price levels unnaturally low in the region and the ECB will likely reveal further stimulus measures to combat that trend.
The euro tumbled against all its major trading partners in the aftermath of the remarks, causing particularly sharp spikes in the Aussie and kiwi as EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD trades were unwound. Over the past week the single currency has gained nearly 250 points as it acted as a primary conduit for anti-dollar flows. While the market remains dubious about any Fed tightening action this year, the focus may shift to the ECB next week and if Mr. Draghi and company decide to rev up the QE program, the euro could come under further selling pressure over the near-term horizon.
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level 1.1400 tested again. market makers expecting lower rate
EUR/USD: Greenback Accelerates as Inflation Beats Estimates
Consumer prices in the worlds' biggest economy rose more than expected, sending the pair down some 80 pips and sliding below $1.1400, extending previous gains of the US dollar.
Consumer prices excluding food and energy items rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in September, adding 10 basis points to August's outcome and to analysts' expectations. Still, consumers paid the same amount for goods and services in September as a year earlier.
The all item gauge fell 0.2% on a monthly basis in August, meeting the predictions of experts, while the core inflation actually accelerated to 1.9% in September, outpacing the 1.8% gain the markets were expecting.
With the disappointing set of US data seen earlier this week, "It is becoming increasingly clear that the almost 9% increase in the US dollar index seen from the start of the year to August effectively functioned as a 'phantom rate hike' by considerably tightening US financial conditions," Angus Nicholson from IG wrote on Wednesday.
On Monday this week, Fed board member Lael Brainard argued that "the massive strengthening of the US dollar has effectively functioned as equivalent to two US rate hikes. With US CPI inflation still at 0.2% year-on-year, real interest rates would increase dramatically in the event of a rate hike."
In addition, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said on Tuesday that he does not currently favor raising interest rates in 2015.
"I would not expect it would be appropriate to raise rates. I want to hasten to add that is an outlook that changes based on developments in the economy."