Eur/usd - page 243
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EURUSD rose on yesterday session after disappointing US durable goods orders for February and close in the middle of the daily range, in a typically digestion day, creating an inside day.
To the upside we have strong resistances at 1.1097 and the 50-day moving average at 1.1110, the stochastic is showing an overbought market. Taking into account the return to risk ratio we are at a perfect point to go short.
EUR/USD turns lower after strong U.S. data
The euro turned lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as data showing that the number of people filing unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell to a five-week low sent the greenback broadly higher.
EUR/USD hit 1.0911 during U.S. morning trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0917, declining 0.46%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.0765, the low of March 23 and resistance at 1.1116, the high of March 5.
In a report, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending March 21 declined by 9,000 to 282,000 from the previous week’s total of 291,000.
Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to fall by 1,000 to 290,000 last week.
Another report showed that the U.S. service sector expanded at the fastest rate this month since September. Research group Markit said the preliminary reading of its services purchasing managers index rose to 58.6 from a final reading of 57.1 in February.
The dollar had been under broad selling pressure since the Federal Reserve indicated last week that it may raise interest rates more gradually than markets had expected.
The euro found support earlier in the session, after data showed that the Gfk German consumer climate index was set to rise to 10.0 in April from a reading of 9.7 the previous month, compared to expectations for an uptick to 9.8.
But investors remained cautious as Greece failed in a bid on Wednesday to secure a quick cash payment from the euro zone rescue fund to help stave off potential bankruptcy next month.
Athens had appealed for the European Financial Stability Facility to return €1.2 billion it said it had overpaid when it transferred bonds intended for bank recapitalization this month.
The Greek government is expected to present a detailed list of proposed reforms to its eurozone partners by next Monday.
The euro was also lower against the pound, with EUR/GBP edging down 0.13% to 0.7362.
In the U.K., the Office for National Statistics reported on Thursday that retail sales increased 0.7% last month, above forecasts for a gain of 0.4%.
Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, rose 0.7% last month, compared to forecasts for a 0.4% rise, after falling 0.3% in January.
Separately, the Confederation of British Industry said that its index of realized sales rose to 18 in March from 1 the previous month, exceeding expectations for a reading of 15.
source
Today was the third day the price rebounds from the resistance level 1.100. price is stuck between support 1.0820 and resistance 1.100 until one of those two major lines are broken I guess its better to be neutral.
EURUSD Holds at Critical Resistance Printing a Sell Signal
The markets have been very churned up this week so traders should be extra vigilant with their trading decisions. It is hard to find good PA setups at the moment, and is probably going to be one of those ‘hurry up and wait’ weeks.
Looking at the EURUSD today – an inside day recently formed within some bullish market momentum. We’re sitting right under some resistance here, but because price is now closing on the bullish side of the mean, and the mean value was starting to vector upwards – we were looking at a potential bullish breakout.
Now the situation has changed just by one candle, with the daily chart is communicating a different picture.
It’s always tricky trying to anticipate price moves when the market is moving against a major trend. Is it a reversal, or just a temporary correction? I guess when in doubt stay out.
Resistance clearly held last session, there was a bearish breakout trap and reverse trade and essentially this is a sell signal. The candle closed as an Outside Day/ Thick Body Rejection Candle.
If the setup plays out, we could be looking at a re-test of the recent weekly swing low. It almost looks like this market wants to start ranging.
source
The upward trend correction may be over as EURUSD reversed its direction and gave all its early gains on yesterday session, after better-than-expected US initial jobless claims plus a rise in Markit Services PMI gave the USD further strength, discarding at the same time disappointing continuing jobless claims.
still the price in range of the support and resistance levels. 1.100 and 1.0830 most probably the week will close inside the range.
EUR/USD forecast for the week of March 30, 2015
The EUR/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the week, but as you can see struggled at the 1.10 handle. This is an area that continues offer resistance, and the fact that we pulled back to form a shooting star of course is a very negative sign. If we can break down below the bottom of the shooting star, we feel that the market then heads to the 1.05 handle. Below there, we go to the parity level, but we are not quite ready to do that yet and we feel that the return trip is about to start this week.
source
Forex technical analysis: EURUSD higher on the week, but neutral technically
Trades between the 100 and 200 hour MAs. Looking for a breakout (March 27-29, 2015)
In this video, Greg Michalowski, Director of Technical Analysis and Trader Education at ForexLive.com, outlines his technical view on the EURUSD and what to look for in the new trading week (March 27, 2015).
EUR/USD Forecast Mar. 30 – Apr. 3
EUR/USD continued its upside run, tackling the 1.10 level but struggling with the highs and eventually closing close to levels seen in the previous week. The upcoming week features inflation numbers and more PMIs. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Better than expected German manufacturing PMI helped the euro, and so did the better than expected German IFO business climate. Draghi repeated this regular messages and made an effort not to rock the boat. In the US, inflation beat expectations and so did new home sales. These and some hawkish comments halted the dollar’s dive, but the greenback still suffered from some weak data, namely durable goods orders.
EUR/USD: Euro Declines Ahead of Data Filled Week
he euro declined on Monday, losing it's grip on the $1.10 handle, with Greece coming back to the fore and ahead of a data load from the US in the afternoon.
The euro recovered a bit from an overnight low of $1.0853 to trade 0.13% lower at $1.0869 ahead of the European open.
"In Europe everyone is on Greece watch yet again. Remember an economic overhaul plan is needed to fulfill the bailout extension agreement. The country is looking to finalize some reforms to help it meet its bailout," Stan Shamu from IG wrote on Monday.
On Friday, Greece sent a package of reform proposals to their euro zone partners in order to avoid a cash crunch, but details remain rather sketchy, with one euro zone official saying the reform list was more like a collection of ideas than something that could be presented to the Eurogroup of finance ministers.
Greece and its international creditors held talks over the weekend, and Greece had set Monday as a deadline to finalize the proposals as it has to implement reforms to unlock about €7.2 billion in bailout funds.
"By Easter, we should either know if the can has been again kicked down the road, or be facing an uncertain future," analysts at ANZ commented.
On the macro front, Europe will focus on CPI releases this week, after the launch of the European Central Bank's QE earlier in the month. The German preliminary CPI is expected at 0.4% month-on-month while Spanish CPI is expected at -1.0%, both suggesting signs of recovery.
"The improvement in data is likely to be acknowledged in the minutes of the ECB Governing Council’s March meeting released on Thursday, although it will not change the QE trajectory. This leaves us comfortable with a core EUR-bearish view," BNP Paribas wrote in a research note on Monday.
It's also a busy week on the other side of Atlantic. Non-farm payroll figures, released this Friday, tend to keep the greenback on its toes. Any sizeable gains in jobs could really reignite the greenback. This week the market is looking for around 250,000 jobs to be added, which is below the 12-month average of 275,000.
The ISM manufacturing gauge will also be in focus, while trade balance numbers at the end of the week will also help give more insight into how the stronger dollar impacted imports and exports.
Federal Reserve members Dennis Lockhart and Jeffrey Lacker are also due to speak later this week.
Technical analysis
Prices of EUR/USD have already tested the prior swing and spike high, slightly above the big round number of $1.1000, before reversing immediately and moving one figure lower to $1.09 over/under area.
We are expecting that volatility will calm down and EUR/USD will be trading in a range in an ideal world above $1.08 and below $1.10.
We do not like taking the breakout above the big round number of $1.10, as we think it will very likely become a trap. We want to see a longer-term correction before another attack.
Due to general and long-term downtrend we are more bearish and if prices break below the previous swing low of $1.08, we will very likely see a sharp sell-off with a possible test of $1.05.