Eur/usd - page 204

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The EUR / USD went down with violence in the wake of the publication of the data, the US GDP for the 3rd quarter.

Just stopped at the level of 1.2160, the minimum of August 3, 2012.

With this positive feeling coming from the USD and the absence of relevant economic events is expected a continuation of the downward trend.

R3 - 1.23036

R2 - 1.22744

R1 - 1.22225

Daily Std. Pivot - 1.21933

S1 - 1.21414

S2 - 1.21122

S3 - 1.20603

 

French Jobless Climbs To New Record In November

France's unemployment rose to a new record in November amid the fragile economic activity, data from the Labor Ministry revealed Wednesday.

The number of unemployed rose by 27,000 to 3.49 million in November. The figure climbed 0.8 percent from the previous month and 5.8 percent from a year ago.

The sustained increase in unemployment adds to concerns of failure of President Francois Hollande's pledge to reduce unemployment and boost the economy. His popularity ratings have slumped as joblessness keeps rising.

Last week, the statistical office INSEE forecast the country's unemployment rate to reach 10.6 percent in the second quarter of 2015, marking the highest level since 1997. The government has forecast 0.4 percent economic growth for this year.

Meanwhile, INSEE reported yesterday that household spending recovered in November, after falling in the previous two months, and confirmed that the French economy expanded 0.3 percent in the third quarter, as estimated earlier.

 

France has never had this many unemployed people before

Jobless total in France hits record high in November, as troubles continue for Europe's second largest economy

More people were unemployed in France in November than ever before, data showed on Wednesday, highlighting continued weak activity in the eurozone's second-largest economy.

The Labour Ministry said the jobless total in mainland France rose by 27,400 to 3.49m in November, a 0.8pc percent increase over one month and 5.8pc over one year. The rise was sharpest among unemployed aged 50 or over, up 11pc on the year.

President Francois Hollande has seen his popularity fall to the lowest ratings in French polling history, with a key factor being his failure to live up to promises to tackle unemployment.

The jobless increase in November was the third monthly gain in a row after a slight fall in unemployment in August.

The French government had been counting on a pick-up in business activity in the second half but has cut its 2014 economic growth estimate to 0.4pc from 1pc previously after the economy stagnated in the first half

Data on Tuesday showed a slight rebound in consumer spending in November while the government confirmed its estimate of GDP growth at just 0.3pc in the third quarter of the year.

 

Merry Christmas and happy holiday

 

EUR/USD Forecast December 26, 2014

The EUR/USD pair as you can see initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Wednesday, but as you can see turned back around in order to form a shooting star. Ultimately, this means that the market should continue to fall, and we believe that the market should then go down to the 1.2050 level, which was the beginning of the longer-term uptrend that we have officially smashed through now. With that, we are bearish and we are selling rallies every time they appear. Also, if we break down below the bottom of the range for Wednesday we are sellers as well.

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EURUSD

R3 - 1.28068

R2 - 1.26882

R1 - 1.24570

Weekly Standard Pivot - 1.23384

S1 - 1.21072

S2 - 1.19886

S3 - 1.17574

 

The EUR was at low US $ 1.2171 on Friday at the Frankfurt foreign exchange market.

The European Central Bank today fixed the official exchange rate of the euro $ 1.2213.

R3 - 1.22701

R2 - 1.22448

R1 - 1.22197

Daily Std. Pivot - 1.21944

S1 - 1.21693

S2 - 1.21440

S3 - 1.21189

 

I am little skeptic about the fall of the EUR/USD. but we will have to wait and see the opening price.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of December 29

The EUR/USD pair broke down during the course of the week, but with it being Christmas there was in a whole lot of liquidity. We simply fell again, continuing the downward pressure that we have seen for some time. Ultimately, we think of this market goes down to the 1.2050 level given enough time, and as a result we are sellers on rallies as they come. However, even if we broke down below the bottom of the range for the week, we think that’s reason enough to start selling as well. Quite frankly, this is a market that we cannot buy.

 

EUR/USD Forecast Dec. 29 2014 – Jan. 2 2015

EUR/USD did not have a merry Christmas, eventually closing on lower ground. Can it make an attempt on 1.20, or will that wait for the time trading volume gets back to normal? In the week around the turn of the year, we have some PMIs and the last round of the Greek presidential elections. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Not a lot of data was released around Christmas, but the figures that did come out were not encouraging: a drop of 0.8% in German import prices and stagnating Italian retail sales won over a better than expected rise in French consumer spending. In the US, the final read of GDP for Q3 was excellent, with a rate of 5% annualized growth. However, more recent data such as durable goods orders and housing data was somewhat mediocre.

  1. Greek presidential elections: Monday. The third and final round of the presidential elections could complicate things for the euro-zone. The government needs 180 out of 300 votes in order to nominate the representative role. While the role itself is not important, a failure automatically triggers general elections, in which the anti-austerity and pro-restructuring SYRIZA party is set to win. Greece is not in the limelight but a return of the country’s debt crisis could certainly raise uncertainty. The government got 168 votes for the sole candidate Stavros Dimas in the second round, and many estimate that it could convince some more members to vote for him and not risk losing their parliamentary seat.
  2. Spanish Flash CPI: Tuesday, 8:00. Inflation data from the euro-zone’s fourth largest economy isn’t usually that important, but this time it’s different: Spain releases the figures for December ahead of other countries and the numbers will already incorporate the sharp fall in oil prices. After an annual decline of 0.4% in prices, a bigger fall of 0.7% y/y is expected.
  3. M3 Money Supply: Tuesday, 9:00. The ECB has reported an acceleration in money growth in recent months. After the amount of money in circulation grew by 2.5% in October, growth is expected to edge up to 2.6%.
  4. Private Loans: Tuesday, 9:00. Also private loans are moving in the right direction, partly due to the easing measures of the central bank. However, year over year, loans are still contracting. After a slide of 1.1% in October, a slower slip of 0.9% is on the cards now.
  5. Spanish Unemployment Change: Friday, 8:00. While unemployment is very seasonal in Spain, this monthly gauge provides a picture of a country which has a huge unemployment rate, but seems to move in the right direction. After a drop of 14.7K in November, a bigger drop of 72K is expected in the number of the jobless.
  6. Manufacturing PMIs: Friday: Spain at 8:15, Italy at 8:45 and the final euro-zone number at 9:00. According to Markit, Spain’s manufacturing sector grew in November, with a score of 54.7, above the 50 point mark separating growth and contraction. A score of 54.9 is expected now Italy, the zone’s third largest economy, experiences a contraction in this sector with 49 points. A rise to 49.6 is predicted now. For the whole euro-zone, a confirmation of the initial December data at a break-even figure of 50 points is expected. Note that Germany and France release their final numbers just before the final euro-zone publication.

Markets are set to grind to a halt on December 31st, stay practically close on January 1st and suffer from thin liquidity on January 2nd.

* All times are GMT

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