Eur/usd - page 181

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ECB's Nowotny says never say never on QE, but not now - CNBC

The European Central Bank should "never say never" to full-on quantitative easing (QE) but such a programme is not in sight at the moment and the ECB should not be jolted into action every month, Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said.

"I think we all have learned in life that we never should say never. But I do not see some perspective at this time for this," Nowotny, who is also the governor of Austria's central bank, said in English when asked in a CNBC interview about "full-on" QE.

source

 

Euro zone CPI 0.4% vs. 0.4% forecast

Consumer price inflation in the euro zone rose last month, official data showed on Friday.

In a report, Eurostat said that Euro zone CPI rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.4%, from 0.3% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Euro zone CPI to rise to 0.4% last month.

 

EUR / USD was too little time below 1.2600.

The daily momentum indicators contend that again will try to break this barrier.

The RSI (14) has moved downward after finding resistance slightly below the 50 line, while the MACD, already inside negative territory, seems to be willing to cross below its signal line.

R3 - 1.27431

R2 - 1.26910

R1 - 1.26512

Daily Pivot - 1.25991

S1 - 1.25593

S2 - 1.25072

S3 - 1.24674

 

Hi

Thank you for the useful information bewayopa.

 

the EUR is completely destroyed now. price broke under 1.2500 this is the lowest price got for years

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of November 3, 2014

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found enough trouble at the 1.28 level in order to turn things back around and fall very harshly. We tested the 1.25 level, but found it to be somewhat supportive towards the end of the session on Friday. Ultimately, if we break down below the lows of the week, we could go much lower at that point in time. We believe that the market should continue to go lower given enough time, and that the 1.25 level will eventually break down.

Ultimately, we believe that the market could very well head back down to the 1.2050 level, as it would then be a “round-trip” of the entire uptrend that we have obviously broken down below now. The fact that the 1.28 level, which of course was the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the longer move, was broken down significantly, it appears that the market should make that round-trip previously mentioned.

Ultimately, we believe that anytime that this market will continue to be sold off every time it rallies, as the sellers are most certainly in control at this point time. And we think about it, it makes him presents as the European Central Bank almost certainly has to keep a very loose monetary policy in order to bring down the value of the Euro in order to try to stimulate the economy.

Given enough time, we believe that the real way to make profits over the longer term will be to continue to hang onto trades, perhaps adding to a position in order to increase its size every time we rally. The 1.20 level below should be rather supportive though, so we don’t know whether or not the market will actually go below there. At that point in time, it is possible that the trend will turned back to the upside, but assuredly at this point in time it appears of the market is ready to break down significantly. We have no interest in buying this market until we break above the 1.30 handle, something that does not look very likely.

source

 

EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 3-7

EUR/USD had a bad week, even temporarily sliding below 1.25. Are we set for a bounce from the double bottom or is the third time a charm? The ECB decision is the clear highlight of a very busy week to open the penultimate month of the year. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Inflation in the euro-zone remains low, with CPI at 0.4% and Core CPI at 0.7%. Disappointing German inflation created worries for even lower numbers. The zone’s locomotive also printed another falling business confidence number, but at least the number of unemployed is falling. The much anticipated stress tests didn’t break any scary news and were well received by markets, even though they didn’t take a deflation scenario into account. In the US, the Fed finally ended QE and even sounded upbeat on the labor market. In addition, GDP beat expectations, even though doubts were cast about its quality. While not all US data shine, the overall picture is positive. Does all this imply another leg lower for the pair or is everything already baked into the current price?

  1. Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy and 9:00 sees final manufacturing PMI for the euro-zone. According to Markit, the manufacturing sector is somewhat growing, with a score of 52.6 in September. A minor slide to 52.4 is expected. Italy’s manufacturing sector is closer to stall speed (50 points). Also here, a dip from 50.7 to 50.6 is expected. For the whole euro-zone, the preliminary read of 50.7 is expected to be confirmed with these numbers and updates from France and Germany.
  2. Spanish Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 8:00. Spain has seen a remarkable drop in its high unemployment rate, but the improvement in jobless claims seemed to have slowed down. After a rise of 19.7K in September, a bigger rise of 23.4K is expected in the zone’s fourth largest economy.
  3. EU Economic Forecasts: Tuesday, 10:00. These medium term forecasts for the next two years are made using a detailed assessment and released only 3 times per year. While forecasts get it wrong quite often, they reflect current expectations. When Germany lowered forecasts, it had a dampening impact on the euro.
  4. PPI: Tuesday, 10:00. The Producer Price Index dropped by 0.1% in August and no change is expected in September. This is another inflation number feeding into the ECB meeting and it fell in recent months more often than not.
  5. Services PMI: Wednesday: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy and 9:00 sees final services PMI for the euro-zone. The services sector is doing better than the manufacturing one, but not in all countries. While Spain is expected to see the purchasing managers’ indicator advance from 55.8 to 56.2 points in October, Italy’s is expected to remain in contraction zone, rising from 48.8 to 49.6 points. For the whole euro-zone, a confirmation of the initial read of 52.4 points is predicted.
  6. Retail Sales: Wednesday, 10:00. Germany’s retail sales badly disappointed with a fall of 3.2%. This is expected to send the whole euro-zone to a dive of 0.6% in September after a surprising rise of 1.2% in August.
  7. German Factory Orders: Thursday, 7:00. On the same day the ECB releases its decision, we will get to know if the huge plunge of 5.7% in Germany’s orders in August was indeed a one-off due to seasonal changes, or something worse. A rise of 2.2% is expected.

read more

 

Germany says UK reaching 'point of no return' on EU

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned British Prime Minister David Cameron he is approaching a "point of no return" with the European Union over his immigration proposals, a report Sunday said.

News weekly Der Spiegel writes in its latest edition that Merkel told Cameron on the sidelines of an EU summit last month that his moves to limit an influx of EU migrant workers undermined core principles of the bloc.

If he continues, Germany would no longer fight to keep Britain in the EU.

"For the first time, Cameron is pushing his country toward a 'point of no return' in terms of its EU membership, the chancellery and the foreign ministry believe," Spiegel said, citing unnamed German government officials.

If Cameron imposes a quota on EU citizens moving to Britain, "then that would be it", the publication quoted a government source as saying.

Spiegel said that Merkel's private discussion with Cameron barely touched on the more high-profile spat of the summit, a 2.1 billion euro ($2.6 billion) surcharge that Britain has been asked to pay for the EU budget by December 1.

Cameron told parliament last week that the amount requested and the short deadline were "unacceptable", setting up a showdown with Brussels.

His Conservative Party is aiming to curb immigration, as it faces increased electoral pressure from the anti-EU UK Independence Party.

Under EU rules, citizens of most EU countries have the right to live and work in any other member state.

Merkel had previous warned in a newspaper interview last month that any attempts to "tamper with the fundamental principles of free movement in the EU" would not be tolerated by Britain's European partners.

Cameron has agreed to hold an in-or-out referendum on Britain's EU membership in 2017 if he wins the general election in May.

source

 

The EURUSD pair fell during the course of the session on Friday, breaking the bottom of the hammer from the Thursday session. And even went below the 1.25 level at one point, but at the end of the day we ended up bouncing back above it.

If we can break down below the 1.25 level on a daily close, we would be very bearish and we would continue to sell this market.

 

Spain’s Manufacturing PMI 52.6 vs. 52.3 forecast

Spanish manufacturing sector activity remained unchanged unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Monday.

In a report, Markit Finacial Information Services said that Spain’s Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 52.6, from 52.6 in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Spain’s Manufacturing PMI to fall to 52.3 last month.

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