Eur/usd - page 173
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Thanks for the news
EURUSD fell during yesterday session closing near the low of the day at 1.2658 after ZEW confidence survey showing that confidence in Germany and in the Euro zone is at its lowest in over 2 years. The pair still managed to close above the 10-day moving average creating an inside day.
EUR/USD edges lower, Draghi speeches ahead
The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, as investors remained cautious ahead of two speaking engagements scheduled for European Central Bank President Mario Draghi later in the day and as Tuesday's downbeat data continued to weigh.
EUR/USD hit 1.2625 during late Asian trade, the pair's lowest since Monday; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2645, easing 0.09%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2582, the low of October 7 and resistance at 1.2769, Tuesday's high.
The euro remained under pressure after data on Tuesday showed that German economic sentiment deteriorated to the lowest level since December 2012 in October, fuelling further concerns over the euro zone's largest economy.
The ZEW Centre for Economic Research said that its index of German economic sentiment fell by 10.5 points to minus 3.6 this month from September’s reading of 6.9.
The index of euro zone economic sentiment plunged to 4.1 in September from 14.2 in August.
Data also showed that industrial production in the euro zone declined more than expected in August, while July's figure was revised down.
Investors were eyeing comments by ECB President Mario Draghi later in the day for potential indications on the central bank's next policy steps.
Elsewhere, the euro was also lower against the pound, with EUR/GBP edging down 0.14% to 0.7950.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to release data on retail sales, as well as reports on producer prices and manufacturing activity in the New York region.
source
Germany Can't Go It Alone Anymore
"We don’t have a recession in Germany," said German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in a widely quoted remark last week. It may not be true for much longer -- and while that would be bad news for Germany, it may be good news for the rest of Europe.
The German economy ministry has cut the country's growth forecast for the year to 1.2 percent, from 1.8 percent in April -- and if the German economy contracts in the third quarter, as it did in the second, Germany will be in recession. Then the European Central Bank may finally be able to introduce a full-scale program of quantitative easing.
Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, has always been the one to say no to ECB stimulus measures. Lasting memories of horrible hyperinflation in the 1920s mean the Bundesbank will always prioritize inflation over growth. With an unemployment rate that's declined to just 4.9 percent -- even as 11.5 percent of the euro zone is without work -- German complacency has been understandable, if not forgivable.
But the need for stimulus in Europe is now catching up to Germany, too. After all, an ebbing European tide risks sinking all boats; jobless people, wherever they are in the euro zone, can't afford new BMWs or Audis. Last week, the International Monetary Fund cut its 2015 growth prediction for the euro region to 1.3 percent. For this year, the agency sees the region eking out an expansion of just 0.8 percent, and even that may prove overly optimistic.
Exports, which account for 40 percent of Germany's economy, plunged by 5.8 percent in August, their biggest drop in five years. No wonder that the general European malaise has been spreading into Germany lately; investor confidence has fallen to its weakest in almost two years.
Germany has the fiscal space to do more to boost growth. Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel, whose Social Democrat Party is the junior member of the governing coalition, called for an increase in infrastructure spending to counter the headwinds buffeting his plan to run a balanced budget next year, with no new net borrowing.
ECB President Mario Draghi has been dragging his fellow policy makers toward the kind of QE program that has reanimated both the U.S. and the U.K., but he's had to overcome German opposition every step of the way. (This week, the ECB is effectively on trial at the European Court of Justice after the German Constitutional Court declared Draghi's government bond-buying stimulus plans illegal.) Instead, the German government and the Bundesbank need to back Draghi's plan to pump as much as 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) into the economy by making loans to banks and buying their debt.
"No country is immune," French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said earlier this month, commenting on the atrophy in Germany's economic figures. He's right: Germany is coming face to face with the reality that it's locked in a feedback cycle with its common-currency partners. If the German engine falters, growth in the rest of the bloc will deteriorate further, but now that Germany is starting to share their pain, perhaps it will wake up to the need to drop its dogmatic opposition to boosting growth.
source
ECB President Mario Draghi, will be at a Conference in Frankfurt.
He is expected to point out that the Bank is ready to act more if needed, following his comments that the ECB had reached its "lower bound" with respect to interest rates.
EURUSD yesterday rose to 1.2886 following the unexpected news that US Advance Retail Sales fell by more than predicted in September. Most economists had already estimated a 0.1% fall in September, but sales fell by 0.3%.
EU Starts Two-Week Austerity Scrutiny as Crisis Reawakens
The European Union started a two-week probe of euro-area governments’ draft budgets as a re-emergence of the bloc’s debt-crisis nightmare risked undoing its economic recovery.
As yields on 10-year securities from Europe’s most-indebted nations surged yesterday, led by Greece and sweeping up Portugal, Ireland and Italy, the European Commission started a process of picking apart nations’ 2015 spending plans, seeking to defuse potential fiscal timebombs.
“Ultimately the success or lack thereof of this process has to be whether or not Europe can escape the Japanese scenario, or secular stagnation,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute.
European stocks fell the most in almost three years as a selloff in Greek securities, the biggest since July 2012, triggered a schism in sovereign debt as benchmark yields in the so-called core, which includes Germany and France, tumbled to record lows as investors sought the safest assets.
The French and Italian spending plans are set to cause the EU’s austerity police the biggest headaches: France because its deficit is forecast to hit its target two years late; Italy because the pace of reduction of its structural deficit, adjusted to take into account the economic cycle, is slower than the commission demanded.
“Maybe sometimes we can go faster,” French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said before a meeting of his euro-area counterparts in Luxembourg this week. “But right now, in this period, with growth that’s half the pace of what was expected, with inflation that’s collapsed, we cannot cut our deficits at the same pace.”
Euro zone trade balance 15.8B vs. 13.5B forecast
The euro zone’s trade balance rose more-than-expected in the last quarter, official data showed on Thursday.
Euro zone trade balance 15.8B vs. 13.5B forecastEuro zone trade balance 15.8B vs. 13.5B forecast
In a report, Eurostat said that Euro zone trade balance rose to 15.8B, from 12.7B in the preceding quarter whose figure was revised up from 12.2B.
Analysts had expected Euro zone trade balance to rise to 13.5B in the last quarter.
great. thank you for the news
The dollar traded mixed against the major currency pairs.
Was higher than the NOK, AUD, NZD, CAD and SEK and lower than the JPY and GBP and virtually unchanged against the EUR and CHF.