Eur/usd - page 168
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Eurozone Service PMI Due On Friday
Service sector PMI data from major eurozone countries and eurozone retail sales are some of the important economic data due for release on Friday.
At 4 am ET, Markit Economics will release its final services PMI and composite PMI figures for the eurozone. The services PMI is expected to be confirmed at 52.8. The final composite PMI for September is expected to come in at 52.3, the same as the flash estimate.
At 1 am ET, Markit Economics is scheduled to release its September services PMI reports for Russia and Ireland. The services PMI for Russia is expected to fall to 49.8 in September from 50.3 in August. In August, the PMI for Ireland was at 62.4.
At 2:30 am ET, Swedbank and the Swedish National Association of Purchasing and Logistics will release the results of their services PMI survey for September. In August, the services PMI for Sweden was at 54.2.
At 3 am ET, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office is due to release its retail sales report for August. In July, retail sales had risen 2.5 percent year-over-year.
Around the same time, the Turkish Statistical Institute will release its consumer prices and producer prices reports for September. Consumer prices are expected to increase 9.36 percent year-over-year following the 9.54 percent rise in August. On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices are estimated to grow 0.4 percent after the 0.09 percent rise in August.
In August, Turkish producer prices had risen 9.88 percent year-over-year and 0.42 percent month-over-month.
At 3:15 am ET, Markit Economics is scheduled to release its service sector activity report for Spain. The services PMI is estimated to fall to 57 in September from 58.1 in August.
At 3:30 am ET, Statistics Sweden is due to release its industrial production and industrial orders reports for August. Industrial production is expected to fall 1.3 percent year-over-year in August following the 5.7 percent decline in July. On a month-over-month basis, production is forecast to rebound by 1 percent after the 1.1 percent drop in July. In July, industrial orders had declined 4.4 percent year-over-year and by 1 percent month-over-month.
Markit Economics will release its services PMI report for Italy at 3:45 am ET. The index is forecast to edge down to 49.6 in September from 49.8 in August.
At 3:50 am ET, Markit Economics is due to release its final services PMI report for France. The final services PMI for September is expected to confirm the flash estimate of 49.4.
Around 5 minutes later, Markit Economics is scheduled to release the final services PMI report for Germany. The index is estimated to come in at 55.4, confirming the flash estimate.
At 4 am ET, Norway's Labor and Welfare Organization, or NAV, is scheduled to release its unemployment report. The NAV jobless rate is expected to fall to 2.7 percent in September from 2.9 percent in August.
At 4:30 am ET, Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply is due to release their services PMI report for the U.K. The services PMI is expected to decline to 59 in September from 60.5 in August.
At 5 am ET, Eurostat is scheduled to release its retail trade report for the eurozone. Retail trade is expected to rise 0.7 percent year-over-year in August following the 0.8 percent increase in July. On a month-over-month basis, retail trade is estimated to increase 0.1 percent after the 0.4 percent drop in July.
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EURUSD has wavered around 1.2650 since Draghi’s speech, and the next key event that could determine is future direction is tomorrow’s US payrolls report. Another sub-150k ready for NFPs could trigger a sharper pullback in the EURUSD downtrend, back towards the 1.2800 highs from 24th September.
French Services PMI 48.4 vs. 49.4 forecast
French service sector activity fell unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Friday.
In a report, Markit Economics said that French Services PMI fell to a seasonally adjusted 48.4, from 49.4 in the preceding month.
Analysts had expected French Services PMI to remain unchanged at 49.4 last month.
Today is celebrated in Germany the German Unity Day.
The DAX 30 (index of shares in Germany) will be closed.
Due to the NFP data may be unexpected fluctuations in EURUSD.
EUR/USD tumbles over 1% to fresh 2-year lows
The euro tumbled over 1% to fresh two-year lows against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as strong U.S. economic reports sent the greenback broadly higher and as disappointing service sector reports from the euro zone weighed on the single currency.
EUR/USD hit 1.2511 during U.S. morning trade, the pair's lowest since August 2012; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2515, tumbling 1.21%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2132 and resistance at 1.2675, the session high.
The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index slipped to 58.6 in September from a reading of 59.6 in August. Analysts had expected the index to fall to 58.5 last month.
Earlier Friday, the Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 248,000 jobs in September, more than the expected 215,000 increase. The number of jobs created in August was revised to 180,000 from a previous estimate of 142,000.
In addition, the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 5.9% last month, from 6.1% in August. Analysts had expected the rate to remain unchanged.
A separate report showed that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $40.10 billion in August from $40.30 billion in July, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated deficit of $40.60 billion.
Analysts had expected the trade deficit to widen to $40.90 billion in August.
The euro shrugged off data showing that euro zone retail sales rose 1.2% in August, beating expectations for an uptick of 0.1%, after 0.4% fall in July.
Year-on-year, retail sales increased by 1.9% in August, more than the expected 0.5% rise. July's figure was revised to a 0.5% gain from a previously estimated 0.8% rise.
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the market fell dramatically the USD dominated the EUR again
Eurozone economy 'stuck in a rut', according to Markit chief economist
A survey measuring business activity in the eurozone shows the economy remains "stuck in a rut", according to the company behind the report.
The eurozone purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 52 in September, down from an initial estimate of 52.3.
Anything above 50 indicates expansion, but at this level, Markit said, the overall picture is one of an economy struggling against multiple headwinds.
However, separate figures showed retail sales rose 1.2% in August from July.
And compared with August the previous year, retail sales were 1.9% higher.
"It may be that retail sales were lifted in August by people determined to enjoy their summer holidays after a difficult year. There may also have been a boost to retail sales coming from squeezed consumers looking to make the most of the summer sales in some countries," said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.
Markit said that France saw solid declines in both manufacturing production and service sector activity. The contraction in Italy was centred on the service sector, as manufacturing output expanded.
On Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) detailed plans to buy assets to boost the economy. Markit's chief economist, Chris Williamson, said the latest PMI survey added to pressure for the ECB to expand its asset purchase plan.
Meanwhile the Chancellor George Osborne said the weakness in the eurozone was "probably the greatest immediate economic risk" to the UK. 40% of the country's exports are destined for the eurozone.
He urged businesses to look further afield, to places such as Asia and South America.
"Too many of our small and middle-sized businesses have felt daunted about entering into export markets. That's not the case for small and medium-sized companies for example in Germany," he told the Institute of Director's conference in London.
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EUR/USD forecast for the week of October 6, 2014
The EUR/USD pair fell hard during the course of the week, slamming into the 1.25 level. That level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant number and therefore we would not be surprise at all to see a little bit of a bounce from here. However, we believe that the 1.28 level above is massively resistive, and as a result we would be willing to sell on some type of pullback at this point in time. We have no interest in buying, as we believe that although this market is oversold, it is far too risky to go long of the Euro right now.
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EUR/USD Forecast Oct. 6-10
EUR/USD had its moments of recovery, but eventually closed the week at new lows. Is the round number of 1.25 a bottom, or just another stepping stone on the way down? Yet another speech from Draghi as well as some important German data dominates this week’s trading. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Despite rock bottom inflation levels, Draghi did not rock the boat in the ECB meeting. While providing some details about the ABS, he did not seem very worried and the result was a stronger euro. On the other side of the Atlantic, data began looking sour and markets finally corrected. However, the impressive Non-Farm Payrolls report sent the pair to fresh 2 year lows.
* All times are GMT
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The USD index rose on Friday's session breaking out of consolidation and making fresh highs at 86.865 after better than expected nonfarm payrolls. The USD is overbought and has been for already 7 weeks in a row.
On Friday the EURUSD fell during the US session making fresh lows at 1.2500 level but found enough support to hold. A bearish tone coming from technical readings remains intact, but despite lower lows in price, Stochastic is setting higher lows, shy signs that the downside may begin to get exhausted.