Eur/usd - page 116
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hello again we have range between 1.3550 and 1.3635 support levels proved to be strong to hold the price from falling further
Eurozone Interest Rates Likely To Remain Low Until 2016
The European Central Bank is unlikely to hike interest rates from record lows until 2016 as it waits for the economic recovery to gain a strong footing, ECB President Mario Draghi and Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said in separate comments over the weekend.
"We have prolonged banks' access to unlimited liquidity up to the end of 2016. That is a signal," Draghi said in an interview to the Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf on June 21.
"Our programme in support of bank lending to businesses will continue for four years. That shows that interest rates will remain low over a longer period. But thereafter they will increase when the recovery will firm up."
Elsewhere, Nowotny said low interest rates were not permanent and they will start to rise when there was concrete evidence of Eurozone recovery gaining momentum.
"Once there is significant growth, more than two percent, the rate reversal will occur, but from today's perspective this will hardly be before 2016," Nowotny said in an interview to the Austrian daily Kronen Zeitung, also on June 21.
Earlier this month, Draghi steered ECB in taking the historic move of cutting interest rates to negative territory as low inflation threatens to derail the euro area's fragile economic recovery.
The bank cut the deposit rate to -0.10 percent and announced EUR 400 billion targeted longer-term refinancing operations that will mature in September 2018.
Nowotny said the bank had to act this month to prevent a new economic crisis.
Eurozone recovery is "still weak and unevenly distributed" and "is vulnerable", Draghi said. "Accidents could happen in the global economy that can quickly change the situation."
He also pointed out that very high unemployment alone poses a risk to euro area recovery as it leads to lower consumer demand. Comparing the euro area recovery to those in the U.S., the U.K. and Japan, Draghi said it is at an earlier stage.
The sentiment was echoed by Nowotny, who said there were just green shoots of recovery in euro area. He also noted that the cheap money are not finding its way to businesses.
"The psychological mood is lacking a bit," Nowotny, who heads the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, added.
Further, an unwarranted tightening of the monetary policy stance mirrored in an increase in short-term interest rates could prompt the ECB to take action, the central bank chief reiterated.
Ongoing weakness in lending as well as a deterioration in inflation expectations could also induce the bank to act, he added. The third scenario may also prompt the bank to consider quantitative easing or purchase government bonds, Draghi said.
"Quantitative easing can include not only government bonds, but also private sector loans," Draghi said. "We will discuss that when the time comes."
Meanwhile, Nowotny said the banking reforms were essential to ensure a stable banking system in the region.
source
EUR/USD: Trading the German Ifo Business Climate
The German Ifo Business Climate is a monthly composite index of about 7,000 businesses, which are surveyed about current business conditions and their expectations concerning economic performance over the next six months. A reading which his higher than the forecast is bullish for the euro.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.
Indicator Background
The German Ifo Business Climate, a leading economic indicator, acts as an excellent barometer of current and future economic conditions. As one of the most important German economic indicators, its release can have a strong impact on the direction of EUR/USD.
The index remains at high levels, but dipped slightly last month to 110.4 points, shy of the estimate of 111.0 points. The markets are expecting more of the same, with an estimate of 110.3 points.
Last week’s dovish FOMC meeting weakened the dollar, but the euro was certainly not the big winner, and for good reasons. Low inflation still remains a big concern, growth has not picked up, and the still-high value of the euro has not helped matters. German inflation numbers could weigh leave the pair depressed, and so could PMIs. All in all, there is now more room to the downside for the pair. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.37, 1.3677, 1.3650, 1.3585, 1.3550 and 1.35.
5 Scenarios
source
Dollar dips vs. euro despite poor Ifo, pound steady
The dollar edged lower against the euro on Tuesday despite data showed that German business confidence deteriorated this month, while the pound was steady ahead of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's testimony in parliament.
EUR/USD inched up 0.09% to 1.3613, holding above Monday’s lows of 1.3573.
Data on Tuesday showed that the German Ifo business climate index fell to a six-month low of 109.7 this month from 110.4 in May and compared to estimates of 110.3.
Elsewhere, the dollar was steady against the yen, with USD/JPY at 101.94.
The pound was steady, supported above the 1.70 level, ahead of BoE Governor Mark Carney’s testimony on monetary policy before parliament’s Treasury committee later in the session.
GBP/USD was at 1.7028, not far from the highs of 1.7034 reached last Thursday, the most since August 2009.
Meanwhile, USD/CHF dipped 0.06% to 0.8936.
The Australian dollar was weaker, with AUD/USD down 0.20% to 0.9404, while NZD/USD edged down 0.05% to trade at 0.8706. The Canadian dollar rose to fresh five-and-a-half month highs, with USD/CAD sliding 0.14% to 1.0717.
The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, edged down 0.06% to 80.30.
The EURUSD went back and forth on Monday, essentially settling nothing as we continue to hang about the 1.3600 level but made an inside day. A break above yesterday’s high could send the pair strait up to 1.3650.
EURUSD is up on firmer EURGBP but faces resistance.
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price losing momentum stochastic overbought on 1 hour frame with a doji, failed to break yesterday high i guess its all signs that we can see a correction soon
France, Italy join forces against 'high priests of austerity'
The left-wing leaders of France and Italy launched an offensive Tuesday against strict EU budget policies, warning two days ahead of a key summit that austerity was holding back economic growth.
Top austerity promoter Berlin however showed no sign of backing down, as European Union leaders prepare to gather in Brussels from Thursday to name the 28-nation bloc's top officials.
France's Socialist President Francois Hollande and Italy's popular new Prime Minister Matteo Renzi have been leading a charge against the rigid application of a rule requiring that budget deficits not exceed three percent of annual gross domestic product.
Both have denied seeking to change the rule but have called for more leeway in how it is applied, especially in the setting of deadlines to reach the three percent goal.
In a letter to European Council President Herman Van Rompuy on Tuesday, Hollande said a "deeper discussion" was needed to come up with "a balanced budget policy" for the eurozone.
"France proposes that budgetary rules be applied in a manner favourable to investment and employment," Hollande wrote in the letter, a copy of which was obtained by AFP.
"It is about taking full advantage of flexibilities to take into account reforms undertaken by countries and their economic situations," he wrote.
In a speech to parliament on Tuesday, Renzi also lashed out at the rigid application of budget rules, calling for a shake-up in Europe's approach to economic growth.
"If Europe does not change course there will be no growth," Renzi said, warning the "high priests and prophets of austerity" that "there can be no stability possible if there is no growth."
He said Europe was at a crossroads and needed to win back Europeans tired of years of economic decline or stagnation.
- Europe 'without soul' -
"Today Europe is boredom... it is submerged by numbers and without soul," Renzi said.
Data released on Monday showed that eurozone business activity slipped for the second month running in June, suggesting a modest recovery from its recent crisis could be stalling.
But defenders of strict fiscal discipline are wary of calls to loosen budget rules, fearing that could lead to a public spending spree that would threaten the eurozone's long-term stability.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Tuesday made clear that Berlin was in no mood for compromise.
"Running up new debt would be the worst possible mistake we could make," Schaeuble told Germany's InfoRadio.
EU members should "stick to the rules we jointly drew up. Nothing more, nothing less," he said.
Germany "provides the proof that a sensible fiscal policy and a continuous reduction of the deficit is one of the preconditions for sustainable growth," Schaeuble said.
Hollande also called for a five-year EU-wide investment programme that would see about 240 billion euros ($325 billion) spent annually on infrastructure projects, research and innovation, and youth training.
The growing divide over budget rules is likely to play an important role as this week's Brussels summit sees leaders chose the bloc's top officials.
At a gathering in Paris on Saturday, European centre-left leaders including Hollande and Renzi agreed to back the contentious candidacy of Jean-Claude Juncker to become the new head of the European Commission, the EU's powerful executive body.
But they said they would be seeking to put left-wingers in other posts up for grabs as the EU replaces figures including the Council president, Eurogroup chief, foreign policy chief and European Parliament head.
The candidacy of Juncker -- a long-serving Luxembourg premier and EU insider -- has deeply angered Britain, which sees him as a federalist who will not adopt reforms London says are needed in the bloc.
EU leaders have been struggling with how to tackle widespread disillusionment with the bloc, after Europeans last month delivered a stinging wake-up call in a vote that saw a surge by anti-EU parties.
Great report . man
Well done
Complete agreement Abdul