Eur/usd - page 37
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European Economics Preview: Eurozone Industrial Output Data Due
Industrial production from euro area is the major data due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, Finland's consumer price data for September is due. Consumer price inflation was 1.2 percent in August.
At 3.15 am ET, the Federal Statistical Office is scheduled to release Swiss producer and import prices for September.
At 3.30 am ET, Dutch trade figures for August are due from Statistics Netherlands. The trade surplus totaled EUR 3.4 billion in July.
At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is scheduled to issue industrial output data. Economists forecast Eurozone production to grow 0.7 percent month-on-month in August, reversing a 1.5 percent drop in July.
Poland's M3 money supply is due at 8.00 am ET. M3 money supply is expected to rise at a slower pace of 0.1 percent on a monthly basis in September after expanding 0.7 percent in August.
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Industrial production up by 1.0% in euro area
In August 2013 compared with July 2013, seasonally adjusted industrial production1 grew by 1.0% in the euro area2 (EA17) and by 0.5% in the EU282, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In July3 industrial production fell by 1.0% and 0.6% respectively.
In August 2013 compared with August 20124, industrial production dropped by 2.1% in the euro area and by 1.6% in the EU28.
Monthly comparison
In August 2013 compared with July 2013, production of capital goods grew by 2.4% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU28. Intermediate goods increased by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. Durable consumer goods rose by 0.8% in the euro area, but fell by 0.9% in the EU28. Non-durable consumer goods gained 0.5% in the euro area and decreased by 0.3% in the EU28. Energy increased by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively.
Among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production rose in thirteen and fell in ten. The highest increases were registered in Portugal (+8.2%), Malta (+7.2%) and the Czech Republic (+4.7%), and the largest decreases in Estonia (-3.5%), Sweden (-2.8%) and Latvia (-2.0%).
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EU finance ministers meet amid US debt default warnings
EU finance ministers were warned Monday of the "dramatic consequences" a US debt default could have as they discussed how to prevent failing banks from ever again collapsing their own economies.
"It is very important that the US overcomes its fiscal gridlock," EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said as efforts continue in Washington to find a solution before the US government runs out of cash to pay all of its bills as soon as Thursday.
"Otherwise it could have potentially dramatic consequences on the world economy and on the still nascent recovery in Europe," Rehn said.
Christian Noyer, governor of the French central bank, was blunt.
"If we were to have ... an accident over the American debt it would be, as the IMF has said, a thunderbolt for the financial markets," Noyer told Le Figaro daily.
The United States faces the prospect of its first ever sovereign default if no agreement is found between Republicans and President Barack Obama's Democrats to raise country's debt ceiling and allow the government to borrow more funds.
Meanwhile, a senior European Central Bank official said the bloc had made progress on its Single Supervisory Mechanism and could now speed up work on a wider regulatory regime for the banks.
"This is really very good news," European Central Bank executive board member Joerg Asmussen said.
"We are very confident that European Union finance ministers can now agree the legal basis for the SSM," Asmussen said.
"We can (now) really speed up preparations ... (for) a Banking Union," he added.
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European Economics Preview: German Economic Confidence Data Due
Economic confidence survey results from Germany and inflation data from the U.K. are due on Tuesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is slated to release German import prices for August. Import prices are forecast to drop 3.9 percent year-on-year after easing 2.6 percent in July.
The French statistical office Insee is set to publish consumer price data at 2.45 am ET. EU harmonized inflation is seen unchanged at 1 percent in September.
At 3.00 am ET, Czech producer prices and Hungary's final industrial output figures are due. Czech producer price inflation is expected to remain at 0.5 percent in September.
Half an hour later, Dutch retail sales data for August is due. Sales were up 1.2 percent year-on-year in July.
At 4.30 am ET, U.K. consumer and producer price figures are due. Inflation is seen at 2.6 percent in September, down from 2.7 percent in August. Likewise, output price inflation is forecast to ease to 1.3 percent in September from 1.6 percent.
Germany's ZEW economic confidence survey results are due at 5.00 am ET. Economists forecast economic confidence to remain at 49.6 in October.
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EUR/USD little changed amid hopes for U.S. debt dea
The euro was steady against the dollar on Tuesday as hopes for a deal to reopen the U.S. government and raise the government borrowing limit ahead of a deadline to avoid a default supported sentiment.
EUR/USD hit 1.3571 during late Asian trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3564, inching up 0.03%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3517, the low of October 11 and resistance at 1.3631, the high of October 4.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Monday that “tremendous progress” had been made towards a deal, fuelling hopes that a compromise can be reached. If an agreement to raise the federal borrowing limit is not struck ahead of Thursday’s deadline, the U.S. will face an unprecedented sovereign debt default.
Any potential deal will still have to be approved by the House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner would have to decide whether to allow a vote or demand federal spending cuts.
Elsewhere, the euro inched higher against the pound, with EUR/GBP edging up 0.06% to 0.8489 and slipped lower against the yen, with EUR/JPY sliding 0.12% to 133.51.
The ZEW Institute was to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment later Tuesday, while the U.S. was to release a report on manufacturing activity in the Empire state.
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Euro Crisis Tentative Victory Aired Amid Irish Return
European finance chiefs said Ireland and Spain will soon be weaned off aid and Greece’s mounting bills will be paid, declaring a tentative victory after almost four years of turmoil that came close to shattering the euro.
Ireland’s return to market financing will be decided next month and the country may be robust enough to fend for itself without a follow-up credit line. Spain is determined to get by without additional support, the officials said.
“Both programs are on track for a successful conclusion,” European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters late yesterday after finance ministers from the 17 euro countries met in Luxembourg. “Conditional financial support has helped to deliver an economic turnaround in the two countries.”
As Europe crawls out of its debt crisis, the U.S. risks tumbling into one, with political bickering in Washington threatening to lead to a U.S. government default that could inflict far more damage on the world economy than the euro zone’s troubles.
European officials are keen to present Ireland, recipient of 67.5 billion euros ($92 billion) in loan pledges in 2010, as a success story that vindicates the German-inspired policy of offering aid only in exchange for deep cuts in public spending.
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EU finance ministers to agree new bank supervision system
EU finance ministers prepared Tuesday to take a key step towards a new bank regulatory framework with final clearance of a single supervisor regime for the eurozone.
"We are set to finally approve the Single Supervisory Mechanism today," Lithuanian Finance Minister Rimantas Sadzius said.
Once approved, the SSM will formally "enter into force in November next year," Sadzius said, as he arrived for a meeting of all 28 European Union finance ministers.
The SSM was originally supposed to start early next year but the timetable slipped amid sharp differences over its precise role and especially over how it would relate to non-euro countries.
Non-euro Britain is home to the European Banking Authority, which is supposed to draft the rules for all banks in the EU, while the SSM is to be run by the European Central Bank.
To ensure that the 17 eurozone members did not out-vote the 11 non-euro members also grouped in the EBA, London won agreement in December that there would have to be a 'double majority' in both camps for any action.
London has since won fresh assurances that this would be the case, clearing the way for the SSM.
ECB executive board member Joerg Asmussen said this means "we can now start the real work -- hire people, rent a building ... all the practical things to be ready to start working in one year."
The SSM is to be complemented by a Single Resolution Mechanism to close failing banks and a Deposit Guarantee regime protect savers.
Combined, this will provide the comprehensive, single regulatory framework meant to prevent taxpayers having to fund the disastrously expensive bank bailouts which led to years of austerity and recession in the eurozone.
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EU ministers agree big step towards banking union
EU finance ministers took a key step Tuesday towards a 'Banking Union,' the new regulatory framework meant to prevent any repeat of the financial meltdown which plunged Europe into crisis.
Ministerial approval of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, "the first pillar of Banking Union ... is a momentous step," EU Financial Markets Commissioner Michel Barnier said.
It is "the start of a new era for the supervision of Eurozone banks," Barnier said.
The SSM, 13 months in the making, will come into force in one year's time, in accordance with EU practice.
It was originally supposed to start early next year but the timetable slipped amid sharp differences over its precise role and especially over how it would relate to non-euro EU countries.
Non-euro Britain led the doubters given concerns over London's future as one of the world's most important financial markets.
Britain, in part reflecting London's global role, is home to the European Banking Authority, which is supposed to draft the rules for all banks in the EU while the SSM is to be run by the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank.
To ensure that the 17 eurozone members do not out-vote the 11 non-euro members also grouped in the EBA, London got agreement in December that there would have to be a "double majority" in both camps for any action.
This understanding, which offers Britain a virtual veto, was confirmed again in talks this week, clearing the way for the SSM.
"The UK continues to support Banking Union and welcomes today's final agreement," a British statement said.
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European Economics Preview: U.K. Labor Market Data Due
Labor market statistics from the U.K. and foreign trade figures from euro area are due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association is scheduled to release car registrations data for September. Sales were down 5 percent year-on-year in August.
Austria's inflation data is due at 4.00 am ET. In the meantime, Italy's trade figures for August are also due. The trade surplus totaled EUR 5.94 billion in July.
At 4.30 am ET, the Office for National Statistics is set to publish labor market statistics. The U.K. claimant count is forecast to remain at 4.2 percent during three months to August. Economists forecast jobless claims to fall 25,000 in September from August.
At 5.00 am ET, Eurozone foreign trade and final inflation reports are due. The trade surplus is seen falling to EUR 10 billion in August from EUR 18.2 billion in July. Inflation for September is expected to match the initial estimate of 1 percent.
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Draghi Turns Judge on EU Banks as ECB Studies Accounts
The European Central Bank is sizing up just how tough it wants to get with the region’s lenders.
Policy makers at the Frankfurt-based ECB will this week try to agree on the ground rules of its three-pronged probe into the health of the 130 banks it will start supervising next year. The process will stress-test balance sheets for exposure to sovereign debt as well as push institutions to admit to more of their bad debt than they have before, according to three officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The check-up due in early 2014 is the ECB’s precondition for assuming the burden of overseeing banks from Deutsche Bank AG to Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, and the first assessment of the industry since a round of stress tests two years ago. Already in charge of setting monetary policy, ECB President Mario Draghi is putting the institution’s reputation on the line as it balances rigor with caution in examining the euro-area’s fragile financial system and tries to prevent a repeat of the turmoil that set off Europe’s worst recession since World War II.
“The ECB can’t pull its punches,” said Richard Barwell, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “A stringent examination is the only pathway to a well-capitalized banking system. But it is possible to be too tough. Capital is there to insure against unexpected losses, but not against Armageddon.”
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