Eur/usd - page 28
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Spanish public debt reaches record level
Spain's public debt reached a record high in June, the country's central bank said.
The figure has risen to 942.8bn euros (£792.5bn; $1.3 trillion), equal to 92.2% of the country's entire economic output, the bank said.
This is nearly 15% higher than the same period last year and above the Spanish government's target limit of 91.4%, despite severe public spending cuts.
Austerity measures have led to street protests as unemployment now tops 26%.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's government is aiming to reduce public spending by 150bn euros between 2012 and 2014, but rising unemployment and the consequent benefit payments, is making this target difficult to reach.
The bank believes public debt could top 100% of gross domestic product over the next three years, its highest level in more than a century, as the government struggles to revive the country's flagging economy.
read more ...
Europe Week Ahead: German ZEW, -Bavaria Elections, UK BoE Minutes, -CPI, -Retail Sale
Eurozone politics might generate some background noise next week although, with markets fixated on the FOMC, there is unlikely to be a dramatic repricing of sovereign risk for now. The inconclusive outcome of the Italian Senate hearings on the Berlusconi case this week did not help, but at least the risk of an immediate collapse of the coalition seems to have receded somewhat. Over the weekend, the regional elections in Bavaria are likely to result in an overwhelming victory for the conservative parties. Direct implications for the 22 September federal elections should remain limited. Finally, the Troika is expected to start its next review of the Portuguese programme in a context of renewed political tensions with respect to the implementation of some spending cuts and structural reforms. While an extension of bailout funds is unlikely to be agreed for now, the transition out of the programme will remain a sensitive issue at the top of creditors' agenda.
We expect a slight decline in the German ZEW expectations in September, from 42.0 to 40.0 due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of the incoming Fed tapering and recent weak data for the German industrial sector. At the same time, the ZEW current conditions index likely stabilised at around 18, as other business surveys have continued to improve, especially in the domestically oriented services sector.
UK CPI inflation is expected to have eased slightly to 2.7% YoY from 2.8% YoY and the CPI index to have increased by 0.4% MoM in August. Core inflation likely stabilised at 2.0% YoY.Near-term inflation should become increasingly less of a source of concern for the BoE as CPI inflation is expected to fall close to the 2% target as soon as in Q413, driven by a moderation in underlying inflation.
MPC members David Miles and Paul Fisher may have restarted voting for more asset purchases at the September meeting. In their testimony behind the Treasury this week, both members made dovish speeches insisting on the existence of substantial spare capacity in the economy. Miles in particular said the pace of growth we have seen so far this year is “not enough to make material in-roads into the margin of slack in the economy” and Fisher said that it is “still no better than the previous trend”. With interest rates having continued to rise since the forward guidance has been announced, the impact on markets might not been have what Miles and Fisher would have liked to see.
UK retail sales likely gave up some of their recent strong gains in August. We expect a decline of around 0.5% MoM in August in retail sales including auto fuel (after having increased by 1.1% MoM in July),as suggested by the BRC retail sales monitor (easing to 1.8% YoY from 2.2% YoY) and the 3.9% MoM contraction in car sales. The outlook for household consumption remains positive, however, underpinned by the strong improvement in consumer confidence, rising house prices and employment.
source ...
EUR/USD Forecast September 16-20
EUR/USD recovered and rose in range after two weeks of drops, riding on the dollar’s weakness. Is it vulnerable to QE tapering in the US? German ZEW Economic Sentiment, trade balance and inflation data are the highlights of this week. Check out these events and more, on our weekly outlook and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Confidence is on the rise in the Eurozone with Sentix index soaring to plus 6.5 in August from minus 4.9 in July indicating pessimism is entrenched in the euro-area. However despite this positive reading, industrial production data came out worse than expected, declining 1.5% in August. German elections are getting closer. In the US, data was generally weaker than predicted, but this will not necessarily stop the taper train.
*All times are GMT
read more ...
EU finance ministers seek progress on bank closures plan
EU finance ministers discussed Saturday how to close down failing banks before they damage the wider economy, a divisive issue for those wary of giving Brussels more power.
Sharp differences emerged Friday at informal talks in Vilnius over a planned Banking Union, the new regulatory framework meant to ensure that the taxpayer no longer foots the bill for bailing out over-extended banks.
The idea was accepted initially as essential to head off future crises, but several member states, including Germany and Britain, are now uneasy about how it will be implemented in practice.
"So far there have been cannon shots going back and forth," Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem said as he went into Saturday's meeting.
Dijsselbloem, who is also head of the group of 17 eurozone finance ministers, added: "We will have an interesting debate over the next few months ... we should have these discussions rather quickly and finish by November, December."
He insisted that the Banking Union plan was not being watered down, noting that much progress had been made, with the first step, the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), approved Thursday by the European Parliament.
The SSM is tasked with supervision of the banking sector in the eurozone under the direction of the European Central Bank (ECB), aiming to ensure that small, localised problems do not grow into major ones affecting all banks.
The SSM will be run by the European Central Bank but the sticking point now is the next step, a Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) to wind down failed lenders.
read more ...
And the solution will be usual : at the account of the bank customers. Time to keep our money out of banks
ECB’s Mersch says more reforms needed to stimulate growth
Nothing of note so far
Add:
source ...
Europe, waiting for Germany, could be disappointed
European policymakers have higher hopes than expectations of change in German policies after a general election next Sunday that has kept much European business on hold for months.
From Athens to Lisbon and Paris to Rome, governments want Berlin to move forward fast with a European Union banking union and adopt a more expansion economic policy that would help drive growth and fight unemployment in a stagnant euro zone.
EU partners expect conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel to win a third term, and many hope she will have to form a grand coalition with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), seen as more pro-European and pro-stimulus than her current center-right Free Democratic allies in government.
The potential for disappointment is large.
"Whoever is elected, the constraints that Merkel has faced will remain the same for any German government," said Sylvie Goulard, a French liberal member of the European Parliament.
The triple lock of parliamentary sovereignty, hostile public opinion and a vigilant constitutional court will continue to limit Germany's willingness to share more European liabilities.
Merkel and her SPD challenger Peer Steinbrueck barely mentioned European and foreign policy in their only television debate, except to agree that Germany should have no part in any military response to the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
Steinbrueck accused Merkel of bungling the euro zone crisis by going slow and inflicting a poisonous dose of austerity on Greece and other bailed out countries. He kept silent about SPD support for pooling some euro zone debts, sensing a vote-loser.
read more ...
Eurozone Final CPI Unchanged At 1.3% In August
The Eurozone final consumer price inflation remained unchanged from the preliminary estimate in August, data from Eurostat showed on Monday.
The euro area annual inflation was 1.3 percent in August 2013, same as the flash estimate and down from 1.6 percent in July.
Monthly inflation was 0.1 percent in August, unchanged from forecast. A year earlier, the rate was 2.6 percent.
The CPI, excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco, was flat with prior rate of 1.1 percent.
The European Union inflation was 1.5 percent annually, down from 1.7 percent in July. On month, the CPI rose to 0.1 percent in August 2013.
source ...
European Economics Preview: Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Due
Economic confidence from Germany and inflation figures from the U.K. are due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank is set to release current account figures for July. The euro area current account surplus in June totaled EUR 26.1 billion.
Half an hour later, the Office for National Statistics is scheduled to issue U.K. consumer and producer price figures. Consumer price inflation is seen at 2.7 percent in August, down from 2.8 percent in July.
Output price inflation is forecast to fall to 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent in July. Input price inflation is seen at 3 percent, down from 5 percent a month ago.
Germany's ZEW economic confidence survey results are due at 5.00 am ET. Economic confidence is seen rising to 45 in September from 42 in August.
In the meantime, Eurozone foreign trade figures are due. The trade surplus is expected to increase to EUR 20.5 billion in July from EUR 17.3 billion in June.
At 7.00 am ET, Turkey's central bank is set to announce its interest rate decision. The bank is widely expected to retain its 4.5 percent 1-week repo rate.
source ...
European Car Sales Resume Slide in August as VW Tumbles
European car sales resumed declining in August as record joblessness caused by a recession in the euro region contributed to falling demand at Volkswagen AG (VOW), PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) and Fiat SpA. (F)
Registrations fell 4.9 percent to 686,957 vehicles from 722,458 cars a year earlier, the Brussels-based European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, or ACEA, said today in a statement. The drop contrasted with 4.9 percent growth in July. Eight-month sales declined 5.2 percent to 8.14 million autos.
The economy of the 17 countries using the euro emerged from a record six-quarter recession in the three months through June. Aftereffects such as a jobless rate in the area that held at 12.1 percent in July led auto-industry executives at the International Motor Show in Frankfurt a week ago to stick to predictions of a sixth consecutive annual car-market contraction in 2013. Eight-month sales in the European Union were the lowest since records began in 1990, the ACEA said.
“We’re still in red territory,” Florent Couvreur, a Paris-based analyst at CM-CIC Securities, said by phone before the ACEA released the figures. “When people say we’ve reached the bottom, I say, ‘watch out,’ because the market is still decreasing. The drop is a little less steep, but we’re still falling because of the bad macroeconomic environment.”
read more ...