Eur/usd - page 23
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Portuguese Industrial Output Falls 2.3% In July
Portugal's industrial production decreased in July for the first time in four months, data released by Statistics Portugal showed Friday.
Industrial production declined 2.3 percent on an annual basis in July, reversing the gains seen in the previous three months.
The downturn was driven mainly by a 2.4 percent fall in manufacturing output. Production of consumer goods contracted 2.6 percent annually, and intermediate goods production dropped by 3 percent. Output of investment goods was lower by 7.1 percent than a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the energy sector recorded a 3.5 percent year-on-year growth in output. At the same time, production in the mining and quarrying industry climbed 11.4 percent.
Separately, the agency said Portugal's retail sales turnover decreased a seasonally and working-day adjusted 2.3 percent year-on-year in July, after contracting 2.6 percent in June.
Month-on-month,sales moved up 0.6 percent during the month, following the previous month's 1.3 percent gain, data showed.
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Greek union calls for 2-day public sector strike
Greece's main public sector trade union, Adedy, launched a call Friday for a two-day strike next month in protest against job lay-offs included in an economic overhaul demanded by the country's creditors.
Adedy, in a statement, criticised the government's "submission" to proposals from the European Union and International Monetary Fund that would "destroy the public sector and the welfare state".
The strike action was called for September 18 and 19.
Greece has agreed to put 12,500 civil servants on a redeployment scheme by the end of September, as part of a general restructuring of its public sector, in return for the next instalment of its EU-IMF rescue loans.
Workers have to accept new posts or spend eight months on reduced salaries as alternative posts are found, with the risk of losing their jobs altogether.
The government redeployed 4,000 civil servants at the end of July, mostly teaching staff.
On Thursday, 1,500 civil servants marched in Athens to protest against the lay-offs and job transfers.
The Adedy union urged other professional sectors to join in next month's planned strike action.
An opinion poll published last month showed that more than half of Greek voters are in favour of the public sector redundancies.
Representatives of Greece's creditors, the EU, IMF and European Central Bank, are expected in Athens at the end of September to conduct a regular audit.
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EUR/USD Forecast September 2-6
EUR/USD retreated from the highs in the last week of August. Is this a preview of things to come in September? The ECB Rate decision, PMIs and German industrial data are the main vents on our calendar. Here are the major market-movers for this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now in lower ground.
Germany released contradicting data. After an upbeat German GDP for Q2, strong PMI data in Q3, and a rise in Business sentiment came a fall in Consumer Climate and weak employment data with a rise of 7K in the number of unemployed, followed by a standstill in German inflation. Is the Eurozone’s locomotive slowing down? In the US, a positive GDP number and solid jobless claims overshadowed some weaker figures. And now, trading volume is set to rise, and so is the action. Let’s start.
*All times are GMT
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ECB's Coeure says bank eyeing money market rates closely
The European Central Bank is closely watching money market rates and will make sure they don't rise too far, ECB policymaker Benoit Coeure said in an interview in a Swedish newspaper published on Saturday.
Money market rates have increased on the back of comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that U.S. policy makers could begin to cut back on extraordinary stimulus measures.
Some market players believe that the Fed could start tapering its $85 billion a month bond buying program as early as next month.
Furthermore, European banks have been paying back long-term loans taken from the ECB during the crisis, removing excess liquidity from the market and pushing up rates.
"We are watching this process closely and will make sure that money market rates remain at reasonable levels," Coeure said in an interview in business daily Dagens Industri.
Banks took more than 1 trillion euros of three-year loans from the ECB in two LTROs in December 2011 and February 2012, of which the first matures in January 2015.
They now have the option to repay the loans early and have returned almost a quarter of the money already.
On Friday. The ECB said banks would pay back 4.646 billion euros in LTRO loans next week.
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Euro Risks Weighted to Downside Ahead of ECB, NFPs
The Euro was the second to worst performer on the week, outgaining the Australian Dollar by a mere +0.24%. With risk-aversion gripping the globe amid rising tensions between the United States and Syria, the traditional “safe havens” found their place as the top performing currencies covered by DailyFX Research. The EURUSD dropped by -1.21% to close the week at $1.3220; and the EURJPY eased by -1.78% to ¥129.80.
Declines haunted the single currency as further signs of improved growth prospects in the region failed to attract buyers. Considering that the Euro has remained elevated for the past several weeks but has thus far struggled amid stronger data, it appears that the Euro – and Europe on the whole – has become a short-term safe haven from plunging emerging markets.
While the emerging market fears aren’t going to go away anytime soon, it’s clear that the risk to the Euro is weighted to the downside: strong data is failing to inspire further gains; and even slightly disappointing news is attracting sellers more commonly. This week, with the first revision to the 2Q’13 Euro-Zone GDP report due and no change in the report figures (+0.3% q/q expected unch; -0.7% y/y expected unch), it is unlikely the Euro sees a boost on the organic-data side of the equation.
This secondary theme – that the Euro isn’t rallying on signs of a broader recovery – will exhibit itself multiple times throughout the week amid the final August PMI readings due for the Euro-Zone’s major economies. Like in the case of the GDP figure on Wednesday, these data, despite their positive inclinations, will do little to spur upside momentum.
Indeed, there are two headline themes this week, one at home and one abroad for the Euro. On Thursday, domestic issues come front and center when the European Central Bank will unveil its latest policy decision. A hold is expected all around, with the main rate at 0.50% and the deposit facility rate at 0.00% - duly no cut to a negative interest rate. However, the first theme – the intensity of ECB President Mario Draghi’s discussion on inflation and credit growth – could prove to be a negative influence on the Euro.
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EUR/USD weekly outlook: September 2 - 6
The euro eased back from five-week lows against the dollar on Friday but still ended the week lower as concerns over a possible U.S. military intervention in Syria underpinned dollar demand.
EUR/USD fell to lows of 1.3174, the lowest since July 25 before paring back some losses to settle at 1.3218, 0.17% lower for the day and ending the week down 1.19%.
The pair is likely to find support at 1.3172, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.3300.
The dollar remained supported amid concerns over prospects for a U.S. led military intervention against Syria, following accusations the government used chemical weapons against civilians.
Meanwhile, data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment was lower in August, pulling back from July’s six-year high. The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipped to 82.1 from a final reading of 85.1 in July.
The report came one day after official data showed that U.S. second quarter growth was revised sharply higher, indicating that the economic recovery is on track.
The Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2.5% in the three months to June, above expectations for growth of 2.2% and up from a preliminary estimate of 1.7%.
The upbeat data reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve could start phasing out stimulus measures as soon as next month.
The euro came under pressure after official data on Friday showed the number of unemployed people in the euro zone fell by 15,000 in July, but the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a record high 12.1%.
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EUR/USD steady as focus remains on Syria
The euro was steady against the U.S. dollar in light trade on Monday, as demand for the safe haven greenback remained supported by the possibility of a military strike against Syria.
EUR/USD hit 1.3222 during late Asian trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3221, inching up 0.01%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3144, the low of July 22 and resistance at 1.3294, the high of August 2.
Concerns over a possible U.S. military intervention mounted after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Friday that the U. S. would punish Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for a "brutal and flagrant" chemical weapons attack that killed nearly 1,500 people in Damascus.
The greenback's gains were limited however, after data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment was lower in August, pulling back from July’s six-year high. The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipped to 82.1 from a final reading of 85.1 in July.
The euro was lower against the pound with EUR/GBP shedding 0.39%, to hit 0.8493.
Later in the day, data on manufacturing activity in Spain and Italy was to be released.
Trading volumes were expected to remain light on Monday, as markets in the U.S. were to remain closed for the Labor Day holiday.
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No Clear Winner in Debate Between Merkel and Challenger
Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Social Democratic rival, Peer Steinbrück, fought each other to a virtual draw in their sole television debate of the German election campaign on Sunday night. The face-off was a mostly decorous 90-minute affair that commentators had cast as Mr. Steinbrück’s last chance to show his mettle and overcome earlier stumbles.
Mr. Steinbrück, 66, who was finance minister in Ms. Merkel’s first coalition government from 2005 to 2009, came across to undecided voters as more persuasive and readier on the attack, according to polling by ARD, Germany’s main state television network. Ms. Merkel, 59, a physicist raised in East Germany who entered politics as a novice in 1990, was rated as more sympathetic and fair, ARD said.
The two quite swiftly laid out contrasting views of the euro crisis and Germany’s role in helping countries like Greece, but it was more than an hour into the debate before they discussed other international problems, including Syria.
Ms. Merkel stated more clearly than she had before that Germany would play no part in any military response to the apparent chemical weapons assault outside Damascus, and she stressed that Germany would always need some kind of international mandate — with NATO, the United Nations or the European Union as possible authors — before taking military action.
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EUR/USD September 2 – Light Trade Continues as US Markets Closed For Holiday
The markets welcomed in a new month on Monday, but so far the EUR/USD has picked up where it left off on Friday, showing little movement. The pair is trading in the low-1.32 range in the European session on Monday. On Friday, UoM Consumer Sentiment fell, but still beat the estimate. The markets have settled down as a US military strike against Syria has been put on hold. There are no US releases on Monday, as the US markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday. In the Eurozone, the new week started well as Manufacturing PMIs out of Spain, Italy and the Eurozone all beat the estimates.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
In the Asian session, EUR/USD was very quiet, touching a high of 1.3222 line and consolidating at 1.3221. The pair is unchanged in the European session.
Current range: 1.3175 to 1.3240.
Further levels in both directions:
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Spain's registered jobless in August holds steady at 4.7 million
The number of people registered as jobless in Spain in August marginally declined from a month earlier, falling by just 31 people, data from the Labour Ministry showed on Tuesday.
August's slight decline marks the sixth straight month of falling figures, leaving 4.7 million people out of work.