How to predict the movement of the market - page 3
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Predicting the Forex price movement is the holy grail. It is what we all seek and very few achieve. I wish there was an easy answer to that but sadly it is very difficult to acieve real success in Forex. The best advice is to learn as much as you can and then try it out on demo for as long as possible
I would say do not try to predict the market - in most cases the market is not predictable. Much better is to trade what you see, but not what you imagine or what could happens on the market.
Greetings,
I would say do not try to predict the market - in most cases the market is not predictable. Much better is to trade what you see, but not what you imagine or what could happens on the market.
Greetings,
I would say do not try to predict the market - in most cases the market is not predictable. Much better is to trade what you see, but not what you imagine or what could happens on the market.
Have you ever played Poker, Hearthstone (or Magic, The Gathering), Skat, Doppelkopf, Blackjack, Chess or Go? (yes, there are more) The key to win more often than others in these games is to read the board and the behavior of your opponent in order to predict your opponent(s). If you play one or more of these, you'll know what I mean. In Hearthstone it's no open secret. The best players admit that freely and sometimes make really crazy predictions, see some YT compilations.
In FX you have your board but you don't know your opponents, but you can choose your 'hand'. After a while you know where the bulls traps and bears traps are and play around them. So you decrease your risk to loose. Another point is the question what we trade. Maybe it's not that obvious in financial markets, but we don't trade the present or the past, we trade the future.
Have you ever played Poker, Hearthstone (or Magic, The Gathering), Skat, Doppelkopf, Blackjack, Chess or Go? (yes, there are more) The key to win more often than others in these games is to read the board and the behavior of your opponent in order to predict your opponent(s). If you play one or more of these, you'll know what I mean. In Hearthstone it's no open secret. The best players admit that freely and sometimes make really crazy predictions, see some YT compilations.
In FX you have your board but you don't know your opponents, but you can choose your 'hand'. After a while you know where the bulls traps and bears traps are and play around them. So you decrease your risk to loose. Another point is the question what we trade. Maybe it's not that obvious in financial markets, but we don't trade the present or the past, we trade the future.
Yep, I have been playing - just for pleasure, but you cannot compare trading and gambling. I had many conversation with friends: some are managing others people money, other working in FX dealing desk in banks, but they never relay on "predictions" (some other points - yes, but no predictions at all).
Also in FX you know your opponent in most cases :) - I will give some examples:
* if you trade with Market Maker broker - your trade is just sitting on your broker server / servers and this is the other side
* if you trade with STP/NDD broker in most cases either another trader will fill your trade or any bank or another broker or investment funds and etc.
* if you trade via virtual exchange like LMAX - similarly as above like STP/NDD broker and etc.
I am agree with you that we do not trade past, but my point is that we trade exactly present. And we are here again :) to trade what you see, but not the forecast.
This is my opinion and with sure there are many other opinions, but that is why are forums - to get together closer to the reality.
Some say you can compare, some say you can't - that doesn't really matter, but you can draw parallels.
You don't see your opponents in financial markets and you can't read them one by one. Even if you have an MM broker. You know that you get an index of the instrument and an operative company takes your orders from your broker. Good, but you don't really know what they do with it. If you are good and the operative company is smart, they'll let you trade DMA. That is all you can do - trade to the chart, unless you leave the table. I meant, you can't see in their eyes.
I also don't care what other people do or how they trade. I'm just interested in the big MMs. They move the market and these movements you must try to read. That was the topic, right? I know that most bankers rely on trend following and worship Warren Buffet, but this is something completely different I don't do. I just count up 1 and 1 and try to predict that way events in the future. To sell high you must buy low and res versa. Ok, Warren Buffet does this as well (but he isn't that good in predictions), so parallels everywhere.
As in the games I mentioned or other businesses or sports you have to invest much time to learn and to be good. There isn't THE ONE WAY. It doesn't help you when I tell you that I use many PA approaches and draw all my lines manually, because it's an art form, no science. I just see and feel it. That's why there are no useful books about PA.
You can also put a bunch of indicators on the chart, e.g. Stochastic and DSS have trend exhaustion patterns which help to predict events, or divergences can help as well. Here it's the same - the way is long to master this style and in FX is no beginners level, no short cut, no free lunch - because the market doesn't make failures. It's always right, what is good for us. Find YOUR way to read the market and what it is up to. Don't copy whole systems and don't listen to 'gurus'. What may work for them, can go completely wrong for you.