Nzdusd - page 12

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We could see a continuation to the downside on the kiwi.

 

NZD/USD Forecast Feb. 16-20

The New Zealand dollar was struggling with its peer commodity currencies, but eventually enjoyed the sell off of the USD. What’s next for the kiwi? Retail sales number are the highlights. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The REINZ HPI dropped by 1% for a second month in a row. It seems that the RBNZ’s macro prudential tools are bearing fruit. The greenback was hit by weak retail sales, and also falling consumer confidence.

  1. Retail Sales: Sunday, 21:45. Very early in the trading week, New Zealand releases these all important numbers: they are published only once per quarter, thus garnering more attention than parallel publications in other countries. In Q3, the country enjoyed a gain of 1.5% in headline sales and 1.4% in core sales. Slightly slower numbers are on the cards now: a gain of 1.3% in retail sales and 1.1% in core sales.
  2. GDT Price Index: Tuesday. The Global Dairy Trade Price Index has become the quickest gauge for New Zealand’s economy, via a snapshot of its main exports. The bi weekly indicator enjoyed 4 consecutive weeks of rises, including a leap of 9.4% last time. A dip could be seen now.
  3. PPI: Wednesday, 21:45. Also here, producer prices are released only once per quarter, giving them extra importance. These fell 1.5% in Q3 in the more important PPI Input number. Another drop is likely now in the number for Q4: -0.2%. PPI Output slipped by 1.1% and is now likely to fall 0.3%.

* All times are GMT.

source

 

Good rally for the Kiwi today, it breaks above the 0.7500 level, lets see if there is a pullback and a possible long entry opportunity.

 

NZD/USD Forecast Feb. 23-27

The New Zealand dollar enjoyed more positive data from the local economy and advanced against the USD and the AUD. Does it have more to run? Trade balance and business confidence are among the highlights of a busy week. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

Retail sales in New Zealand came out better than expected, with a gain of 1.7% in Q4 and a 1.5% rise for core sales. Together with another leap in milk prices, 10.1% in the latest bi-weekly auction, the kiwi was well supported and selling AUD/NZD rallies received a recommendation. In the US, data was mixed.

  1. Credit Card Spending: Monday, 2:00. With retail sales published only once per quarter and the high usage of cards in New Zealand, this monthly indicator provides an indication on the situation. After a rise of 4.5% for December, a similar number is on the cards for January.
  2. Inflation Expectations: Tuesday, 2:00. This official publication by the RBNZ gives another look at inflation and the direction of interest rates. Expectations slowed down to 2.1% in Q3, and are expected to tick a bit lower now.
  3. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 21:45. New Zealand’s trade deficit squeezed to 159 million in December, but came out worse than expected. A very similar number is expected now: -157 million. A much wider deficit was seen in September.
  4. Visitor Arrivals: Wednesday, 21:45. Tourism plays a significant role in the economy. After a drop of 1.3% in December, a small growth rate could be seen now. Trade balance numbers could overshadow the figure.
  5. Building Consents: Thursday, 21:45. The RBNZ managed to cool the potential bubble with macro prudential tools. While this indicator is somewhat volatile, it has an impact. The number of consents slid by 2.1% after two strong months of gains. No big changes are on the cards now.
  6. ANZ Business Confidence: Friday, 00:00. This wide survey of 1500 businesses has stabilized around 30 points in recent months, after long falls from the highs. After 30.4 points in January, a small tick up is on the cards now.

* All times are GMT.

 

Nice bounce to the upside up to now on the NZDUSD, but still consolidating above that level.

 

NZD/USD Forecast Mar. 2-6

The New Zealand dollar as most data remained positive for the local economy. The bi-weekly dairy event is the main event for this week. Can AUD/NZD hit parity? Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

While inflation expectations fell below 2%, trade balance returned to a surplus and business confidence continued advancing. Here are 5 reasons to invest in NZD. The positives beat the negatives in New Zealand. In the US, solid inflation and some bullish Fed comments kept the greenback bid.

  1. Overseas Trade Index: Sunday, 21:45. Before trading really begins, we will get a view on New Zealand’s terms of trade. These have worsened in Q3, falling by 4.4%, A bounce back is expected for Q4 in this relatively volatile indicator.
  2. ANZ Commodity Prices: Tuesday, 00:00. Commodity prices have an impact on NZD as the nation exports commodities. However, this indicator is recently overshadowed by the milk auction.
  3. GDT Price Index: Tuesday (usually in the US session). This bi-weekly release of changes in dairy products has a big impact on the kiwi. In the past 5 releases, prices have risen, with 10.1% and 9.4% jumps in the past two publications. Will we see a slide now?

* All times are GMT.

 

A possible breakdown of the 0.7500 level on the NZDUSD is possible, lets see if we get a shorting opportunity.

 

NZD/USD: Kiwi Recovers After 3 Days of Losses

The New Zealand dollar rose on Tuesday, riding on the coattails of an upbeat Australian dollar after solid Australian building consents and an unchanged cash rate from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The RBA kept its benchmark rate at 2.25%, whereas many forecasters were anticipating a cut to 2.00% following last month's decision to cut from 2.50%.

"At today’s meeting the Board judged that, having eased monetary policy at the previous meeting, it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the time being," RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said on Tuesday. "Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead, in order to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target."

Australian building approvals surged 7.9% month-on-month in January after sliding a revised 2.8% a month earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. Analysts expected consents to decline 1.8% in January.

The kiwi recovered from previous losses and rose 0.50% to hit $0.7542. The uptrend follows three days of losses when NZD/USD suffered mostly from strong US fundamentals, notably, Markit's manufacturing PMI rising to its highest level since October, while personal income increased in January.

Technical analysis

The intraday chart is back on the track of the symmetrical grinding pattern of higher highs and higher lows with a spike above $0.76. The intraday uptrend is still alive after a sell-off and correction bottom of $0.7520.

Long-term daily charts are on the way down and have a lot of zones that could possibly support grinding higher, most importantly the round number of $0.7000, not only because lots of orders are placed there, but also because lots of option contracts played by big institutions sit right at this spot.

source

 

NZD/USD: Kiwi Stays Deep in Red After RBNZ, China GDP Outlook

The New Zealand dollar was the worst performer among the world's most traded currencies overnight, even against a much softer euro, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released a document outlining a new consultation regarding housing investment curbs, and after the nation's biggest export partner China downgraded its growth outlook.

The so-called kiwi dollar was trading 1.4% lower at $0.7480 from $0.7580 before the close of trade in New York on Thursday, hitting an intraday low of $0.7452 earlier in the session.

Early Thursday afternoon in Wellington the RBNZ announced that it was beginning a new consultation period to assess what defined a "property investor loan."

The definition will be used by the central bank to potentially curb investor activity in the housing market, and help cool demand and house-price inflation.

"...once the Reserve Bank has settled upon a definition, it proposes to amend existing rules by requiring all locally incorporated banks to include residential property investment mortgage loans in a specific asset sub-class, and hold appropriate regulatory capital for those loans."

Westpac economists said in a note Thursday that this is not a new policy for the RBNZ, but the latest iteration of a policy proposal that was first floated in late 2013.

"At the margin, these new rules would slightly reduce the need to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to address the growing pressures in the housing market. However, with inflation set to remain below the bottom of the 1 to 3% target band for an extended period, that wasn't likely to happen for some time anyway," Westpac economist Satish Ranchhod said on Thursday. "We've been saying for some time that a further tightening of macroprudential policy, such as LVR restrictions, would be the most likely response this year."

BNZ currency strategist Kimberly Martin said on Friday morning in Auckland that "the market presumably sees action toward controlling the bubbling NZ housing market as opening up greater prospects for RBNZ rate cuts."

Further weakness in the currency also came on the back of China's downgraded GDP growth target for the year, which was set at "about 7%" this year, down from 7.5% last year. China recently became New Zealand's biggest export destination.

source

 

NZD/USD: Kiwi Pushes Higher Before NFP Report

The so-called kiwi pulled back previous-day losses on Friday in the build up to US employment data, which is set to be the market mover of the week.

The NZD/USD pair traded 20 pips higher at $0.7488 in early afternoon trade in Wellington, up from $0.7474 at the close of trade in New York hours earlier, and making back some of Thursday's sharp losses which had the pair down more than 1.4%.

BNZ currency strategist Kimberly Martin said in a note Friday that the fate of the NZD along with most other currencies will lie with the release of the US payrolls report tonight.

Analysts expect the US economy to have added some 240,000 non-farm jobs last month, which would be slightly more moderate than January's 257,000, but still a solid uptick.

Perhaps even more importantly, markets will be looking to the change in average hourly earnings, for a better indication of how the labor market is performing.

"We forecast an above-consensus 0.3% rise in hourly earnings, following a 0.5% rise in January, and a 0.2% drop in December," cheif US economist at High Frequency Economics Jim O'Sullivan said on Thursday. "The data are volatile, partly due to seasonal adjustment issues, but we believe the trend is starting to move up. Acceleration should become more apparent if the unemployment rate keeps falling, as we expect."

Martin said an above-consensus release would be most likely to result in a stronger USD, as the market steps forward its expectations for the first Fed rate hike. "We continue to see this occurring mid-year, slightly before the market is currently pricing," she wrote.

Technical analysis

The intraday chart is back on the track to the symmetrical grinding pattern of higher highs and higher lows with a spike above $0.76. As long as trendline support connecting the swing lows and 200-period moving average hold, the intraday uptrend is still alive and in grinding mode.

Long-term daily charts are on the way down and have a lot of zones that could possibly support grinding higher, most importantly the round number of $0.7000, not only because lots of orders are placed there, but also because lots of option contracts played by big institutions sit right at this spot.

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