Nzdusd - page 10

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A lot of volatility on the Kiwi, but it has found a good support around the 0.7900 area.

 

NZD/USD Forecast Oct. 20-24

The New Zealand dollar had an exciting week, alongside all the market, and in general, showed a lot of strength. The main event in the upcoming week is the quarterly CPI release. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

Prices of milk changed course and rose by 1.4%, after a plunge of 7.3% last time. The dairy dependent country’s currency certainly liked this. Also Business NZ’s Manufacturing Index was on the rise and reflects strong growth with 58 points. The kiwi managed to perform well in the global storm that hurt stock and commodity markets. A weaker than expected retail sales number in the US triggered a wide sell off, hurting the dollar and stocks.

  1. Visitor Arrivals: Monday, 21:45. Tourism is important to the New Zealand economy: it is also the Land of the Lord of the Rings and not only a milk producing country. After a drop of 3% in August, a small rise is expected in September, the first month of the spring.
  2. Credit Card Spending: Tuesday, 2:00. With retail sales published only once per quarter, this monthly publication helps get an assessment on consumer spending. A y/y rise of 4.2% was seen last month and a slower growth rate is likely now.
  3. CPI: Wednesday, 21:45. This is the key event, as it can determine the next move from the RBNZ. The quarterly publication, contrary to a monthly one by most countries, gives it extra importance. A meager rise of 0.3% was reported in Q2. It was the second quarter of undershoots in inflation. A third quarter of low inflation is likely, given the trend in the global economy and the fall of commodity prices. However, the weaker NZD during this quarter could have pushed import prices higher.
  4. Trade Balance: Thursday, 21:45. In the past two months, New Zealand experienced trade deficits, after a long period of surpluses. However, the deficit for August was narrower than predicted: 472 million. A similar number is due this time.

* All times are GMT.

source

 

New Zealand’s consumer price inflation 0.3% vs. 0.5% forecast

Consumer price inflation in New Zealand rose less-than-expected in the last quarter, official data showed on Wednesday.

In a report, Statistics New Zealand said that CPI rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.3%, from 0.3% in the preceding quarter .

Analysts had expected CPI to rise 0.5% in the last quarter.

 

NZD/USD Forecast Oct. 27-31

The New Zealand dollar managed to top 0.80 but eventually retreated and ended the week lower. The main event is the rate decision by the RBNZ. Will the central bank reaffirm expectations of holding on for longer? Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The initial weakness of the greenback helped the kiw top the 0.80 line, but this didn’t hold. A series of solid US figures, including stable inflation and jobless claims were joined by weak New Zealand data on the other side. Inflation badly disappointed and also the trade deficit topped 1 billion. On this background, we have a lower close for NZD/USD.

  1. ANZ Business Confidence: Wednesday, 00:00. This highly regarded survey of around 1500 businesses always has a significant impact on the NZD. After reaching a multi-decade high in February, the indicator has been on a slippery slope, falling to 13.4 points in September, the lowest since 2012. This time, it could stabilize and not fall into negative territory.
  2. Rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The central bank last raised the rates in July, but has hinted that a long pause is expected now. From 3.50%, no change is expected now. Governor Wheeler and his colleagues are worried about the high exchange rate of NZD and a slowdown in global growth. Some see rates as staying unchanged until March, some see July, and others even think that a rate cut is on the cards. Every word in the statement will be watched very closely.
  3. Building Consents: Thursday, 21:45. This monthly barometer of the housing sector remained flat in August, after seeing a fall in July. For the month of September, a small rise is likely. Auckland’s housing is not as strong as it used to be.

* All times are GMT.

source

 

The Kiwi has found a good resistance on the 0.7900 and it may try to bounce to the downside from there.

 

New Zealand Building Consents -12.2% vs. 1.0% forecast

The number of new building consents issued in New Zealand fell unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Thursday.

In a report, Statistics New Zealand said that New Zealand Building Consents fell to a seasonally adjusted -12.2%, from 0.0% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected New Zealand Building Consents to rise to 1.0% last month.

 

NZD/USD Forecast Nov. 3-7

The New Zealand dollar managed to move higher once again but eventually tumbled down. After we heard from the central bank, the quarterly employment data is the big event for the upcoming week. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The ANZ Business Confidence indicator finally bounced off the bottom, shying away from a pessimistic outlook. The RBNZ surprised by not only complaining about the exchange rate, but also dropping a hint that this tightening cycle is over. Many now expect the Bank to leave rates unchanged for another year. In the US, the Fed ended QE and sounded upbeat on the situation of the US labor market. All this weakened NZD/USD but wasn’t as devastating as one would have expected.

  1. ANZ Commodity Prices: Tuesday, 00:00. As an exporter of commodities, this wide index has an influence on the kiwi, even though the specific price of milk has a stronger impact of late. It fell 1.3% last time, and could rebound this time.
  2. GDT Price Index: Wednesday, time unknown. The Global Dairy Trade has a big impact as milk products are key to the economy. After a big fall 4 weeks ago of 7.3%, prices bounced back two weeks ago. Another nudge higher is expected.
  3. Employment data: Tuesday, 21:45. New Zealand stands out by releasing employment data only once per quarter, making it very important. Employment rose by 0.4% in Q2, worse than expected, and it is now expected to pick up and rise by 0.6%. The unemployment rate dropped to a low of 5.6%, but it enjoyed the fall of the participation rate. Another slide to 5.5% is expected. It is also important to follow the labor cost index: wages have rise by 0.6% in Q2 and are expected to rise by 0.5% in Q3 2014. An accelerated rise in wages means more pressure on the RBNZ to move on rates, but it’s hard to see that happening at the moment.

* All times are GMT.

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The Kiwi has the 0.7800 level as a good support but it is having difficulties confirming a breakout above the 0.7900 level.

 

The NZDUSD has also benefited from the less than expected economic indicators from the United States. The pair has rallied very close to the 0.7900 level, but it has not tested it yet.

 

The Kiwi stays below the 0.7800 level with the 0.7700 as a good support.

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