Nzdusd - page 8

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lets pay attention to a possible visit of the NZDUSD to the 0.8500 level.

 

The NZDUSD has come back to the 0.8500 level, but the bearish trend is still in place. It may try to continue going lower.

 

It might as well to continue going higher to previous tops.

 

If the Kiwi keeps correcting to the upside its recent drop, then we should pay attention to the 0.8600 level, which could act as a resistance.

 

NZD/USD weekly outlook: August 18 - 22

The New Zealand dollar ended the week slightly lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as demand for riskier assets weakened amid fears that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will escalate further.

NZD/USD hit 0.8513 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since August 5, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8485 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.08% for the day but still 0.27% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8454, the low from August 14 and resistance at 0.8513, the high from August 14.

Fears that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will escalate mounted on Friday after Ukraine said its forces had attacked and partly destroyed a Russian armored convoy that entered Ukrainian territory overnight.

Separately, NATO’s secretary-general said the organization observed a Russian “incursion” into Ukraine on Thursday night, which was denied by Moscow.

Elsewhere, in the U.S., data showed that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment ticked down to a nine-month low of 79.2 in August from 81.8 in July. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 82.5 this month.

A separate report from the New York Federal Reserve said that its Empire State manufacturing index fell to a four-month low of 14.69 this month, from a reading of 25.60 in July, worse than expectations for a decline to 20.0.

Also Friday, the Federal Reserve said U.S. industrial production rose 0.4% in July, beating expectations for a 0.3% gain.

Meanwhile, U.S. producer price inflation rose 0.1% on year last month, in line with expectations. Core producer price inflation, which excludes food, energy and trade, rose 0.2% in July, also in line with market projections.

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Next support on the NZDUSD is the 0.8300 level, it is almost half way there after it broke the 0.8400 level.

 

NZD/USD falls below 0.83

The kiwi was on the back foot for quite some time. And now, a new fall in milk prices (not for the first time) and a stronger than expected figure from the US send it to new lows.

Below the 0.83 level, NZD/USD is the lowest since the beginning of the year.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US climbed up to 59 points, around 2 more than expected. This reflects strong growth in the world’s No. 1 economy and raises expectations for an earlier than expected rate hike.

One of the recent blows to the kiwi came from the central bank, that signaled a pause in rate hikes. The new low is 0.8298 at the moment. Further support is at 0.8250, followed by 0.82.

 

NZD/USD Forecast Sep. 8-12

The New Zealand dollar was hit hard once again, falling to new lows, as milk was an issue once again. Where will this stop? The big event of the week is the rate decision from the RBNZ. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

Data was not all bad in New Zealand: the overseas trade index surprised by rising .3%, contrary to expectations for a drop. However, falling milk prices sent the pair below 0.83. In the US, positive data certainly helped, but the weak Non-Farm Payrolls sent NZD/USD above 0.83, saving it from a worse week.

Updates:

  1. REINZ HPI: Publication time unknown at the moment. The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand has reported three consecutive months of falls in house prices, a clear change of trend to what has been seen beforehand. After a drop of 0.7% in July, a more moderate slide is expected now.
  2. Manufacturing Sales: Sunday, 22:45. The official statistics showed a rise of 0.6% in total manufacturing sales in Q1, lower than the two previous quarters. In Q2, a similar small change is likely.
  3. Rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The RBNZ surprised markets last time with a statement that implied a longer pause in rate hikes than expected. Despite a fourth consecutive rate hike, the pair began its fall. The central bank often expressed concern about the strong exchange rate, and things have certainly changed since then. Will Wheeler and co. acknowledge the drop and release a more optimism statement? Or will they try to push the currency lower? Note that the statement is accompanied by a press conference by Wheeler.
  4. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 22:30. This PMI-like indicator has shown growth for quite some time. However, growth was quite slow of late. After a score of 53 points in July, a slightly stronger number is expected in August. The 50 point mark separates growth from contraction.
  5. FPI: Thursday, 22:45. The Food Price Index is important to New Zealand, that relies on exports of milk among other types of food. After a slide of 0.7% seen in July, another one is expected in August.

* All times are GMT.

source

 

The NZDUSD stays above the 0.8300 level and it seems like this level will be a good support.

 

N.Z. Official Cash Rate 3.50% vs. 3.50% forecast

New Zealand’s official cash rate remained unchanged last month, official data showed on Wednesday.

In a report, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said that its official cash rate remained unchanged at 3.50%.

Analysts had expected the official cash rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%.

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