Eurozone PMI data 'points to new recession'

 

Posting this in a separate thread since it is not a "news" ... but rather a "gray prediction"

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The eurozone's economy is set to contract by 0.5%-0.6% in the July to September quarter, tipping it into its second recession in three years, a closely-watched survey suggests.

The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index, which measures new orders in manufacturing and services, was 46.6 in August, compared with 46.5 in July.

A score below 50 indicates contraction.

Output declined in both the manufacturing and services sectors, Markit said in a statement.

This is the seventh consecutive month of contraction in the eurozone's private sector.

Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit said: "The August Markit Eurozone Flash PMI reinforces the prevailing view of the economy dropping back into recession during the third quarter of 2012.

"Taken together, the July and August readings would historically be consistent with GDP falling by around 0.5%-0.6% quarter-on-quarter, so it would take a substantial bounce in September to change this outlook."

The eurozone's economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of the year. A recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Julien Manceaux, senior economist at ING, said: "The composite PMI still indicates a contraction of activity in the eurozone as a whole.

"In our view, this confirms that the decline in eurozone GDP [gross domestic product] in the second quarter is likely to be the first leg of a technical recession."

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BBC News - Eurozone PMI data 'points to new recession'