Daily Technical Analysis for Majors - page 2
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EUR/USD Gains After Bernanke’s Comments
EUR/USD:
During London session, the pair tested daily moving average (100) at 1.3190 as support after IFO Economist Wohlrable commented that the German economy was losing some of its momentum. Once the markets had apparently settled down after the IFO data, unexpectedly dovish comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke gave the EURUSD a lift and the pair finally broke 1.3280 resistance level. Support at 1.3250 and especially 1.3190 will need to hold in order to see the bullish tenancies continue. The pair will head to 1.3385-1.3405, 1.3516 and maybe even 1.3762. However it is possible to see a pullback to test 1.3280 as a support level before climbing higher. To the downside, there will be strong support at 1.3250 and 1.3206-1.3190. The investors’ sentiment remain bullish for now but very long term picture may be different as Spain, Italy and Portugal are struggling to get growth and even Germany and France are slowing.
GBP/USD:
Sterling bulls stopped the bears around 1.5800 support level and pushed the pair up once again. This time the bulls broke through 1.5900 resistance which GBP/USD has been struggling to pass. Now the next target will be 1.6000. If the bulls successfully breach this level, GBP/USD will probably be heading for a re-test of the 5 month high at 1.6055. If price reverses and starts to fall, 1.5942, 1.5865/50, 1.5800 and 1.5755 will be the support levels to watch.
USD/CAD:
USD/CAD daily charts show that pair continues to struggle above the parity mark. The Friday candle had formed a shooting star, signaling that pulling back below the parity was imminent. It seems that trading range will be tight for some more days. If the bulls can push the pair above 0.9945, look for 1.00 and 1.0050. To the downside, there will be support at 0.9900 and 0.9870.
AUD/USD:
Last week the pair had tested 1.04 support (it is also the 38.2% Fibonacci level) successfully. Yesterday’s price action suggests that if AUD/USD can pass and hold above 1.0550/68, it will try to climb higher. Though it is possible to see a retracement towards 1.0455 area first. Today, resistance levels to watch will be 1.0605, 1.0650, and 1.0708 with support levels below of 1.0480, 1.0420 and 1.0390.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
German Consumer Confidence Slips
EUR/USD:
The market is still digesting Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments. EUR/USD climbed to its highest level in March as the market continued to put economic growth concerns on the sidelines and continued to focus on policy stimulus. The pair tested 1.3385 resistance yesterday and pulled back to 1.33 level. For this week, 1.32 will be a key level for EUR/USD. As long as this level can hold the bulls will be dominating and prices will go north, resistance levels are located at 1.3385, 1.3418 and 1.3481. However, after Monday’s strong move, it is quite possible that the pair will see some retracement before heading higher. If we do, look for support at 1.3300, 1.3242 and 1.3197. Daily charts indicates that in the short term there could be more upside for EUR/USD but the crisis in the eurozone is not over yet. Therefore many investors will be looking to short this pair (or take their profit) around the 1.35 level if they see any significant weakness.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD is supported by its crosses and still strong but the bulls may need high volume to crack 1.6000 resistance level. Today, the market participants will be watching the Current Account and GDP data closely. The pair is bullish above 1.5900 and there is no strong resistance above 1.6000, until 1.6125. However, if the pair fails to break and hold above 1.6000, expect a pull back towards 1.5855 level.
USD/CHF:
USD/CHF is hovering just above its trend line. If the pair breaks this trend line and closes below 0.9000, selling pressure would increase and send the pair to 0.8930 level in no time. At this point, the pair may retrace back to 0.9080 level, which was a long term support, and test it as a resistance this time. If the bulls win the battle, there will be resistance at 0.9150 and 0.9200. If price turns bearish around 0.9080, the pair will most likely pull back to around 0.9000 with a close below this level possibly indicating further bearish direction.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY continues to rise after it bounced from its trend line. Daily charts indicate that the pair is bullish as long as it trades above 82.30. During today’s trading sessions resistance levels to watch will be 83.40, 83.80, and 84.15 with support levels below of 82.30, 81.85 and 81.10.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
Australian Dollar Loses Steam
EUR/USD:
We will see that investors’ focus will be turning to the headlines from the eurozone as strengthening the EZ financial firewall will be discussed at the EU Summit this weekend. EUR/USD will probably stay bullish on hopes that the ceiling on rescue aid will be increased. EUR/USD was able to climb to 1.3372 yesterday but slowing Chinese economy and concerns about debt-plagued countries in the EZ limited gains and the pair fell back to test (Fibonacci 28.6) 1.3280 level which was a strong resistance level during the last couple of weeks. EUR/USD found support at this area but it closed the day slightly lower than opening. Today’s key levels to watch will be 1.3280 and 1.3380. If price closes below 1.3280, expect the 1.3200 level to be tested. If price goes below 1.3200, 1.3160 will be next. However, if the pair holds above 1.3280 expect to see a test of the daily pivot at 1.3337. The next resistance levels are located at 1.3363 and 1.3410.
GBP/USD:
The cable had a bearish day after the bulls failed to pass 1.6000 twice on Monday. The weaker GDP data triggered another wave of selling and the cable tested the bottom line of ascending trend line at 1.5850 on 4H chart. In order for bulls to maintain control, the pair should stay above 1.5900 line. The first though challenge awaits the bulls at 1.5960. If prices break this level with high volume, then the bulls can march to the next target at 1.6000. If the bears take over around 1.5900, look for 1.5850, 1.5800 and 1.5740.
AUD/USD:
There is more of a cautious mood setting in across the currency market as a result we see the high risk-high yielding assets like AUD lose steam. AUD/USD has been slipping on fears about the Chinese economy. Disappointing Chinese economic data pushed the pair below a critical level at 1.0400 (Fibonacci 38.2) level. Hopes of an interest rate cut will be priced in as well. The bearish outlook will remain until the pair trades above 1.0550 and selling pressure will increase if the pair fails to climb above 1.0400. To the upside, there will be resistance at 1.0400, 1.0455 and 1.0520. To the downside, expect to see support at 1.0333, 1.0284 and 1.0260.
USD/CAD:
The pair is still moving inside its tight range, trying to find a direction. If USD/CAD fails to pass and hold above the parity again, the bears may take over the control and pull the pair back to 0.9870. If the pair turns bullish and close above 1.00 level, expect to see resistance at 1.0025 and 1.0050. To the downside there is support at 0.9945 and 0.9900.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
Will EU Summit Rescue Euro
EUR/USD:
Yesterday the EUR/USD slipped on renewed fears that contagion from the eurozone debt crisis could infect the region’s financial system and closed the day slightly lower than opening. The pair tested 34EMA and the daily support level at 1.3250 after S&P ratings agency said Greece may have to restructure its debt again. EUR/USD bounced back above 1.3280, critical s/r level, as investors are expecting EU summit today to approve bolstering the region’s rescue fund. Today is also end of the week, month and quarter so unusual activities wouldn’t be surprising. On daily charts EUR/USD is bullish above the critical support and trend line at 1.3280. In order to confirm a bullish breakout of this trend line, the pair has to stay above 1.3340 which is the current weekly resistance level. If the bulls can pass this barrier, the pair will head to 1.3400, 1.3475 and 1.3514. If the bulls fail to keep the pair above 1.3250, price will head back to next support at 1.3200. Investors will increase Selling pressure, if the pair slips below the 1.3150 support level. If eurozone finance ministers decide to enlarge the rescue package, it would be possible to see EUR climbing but if they disappoint the markets, it may trigger a sell-off.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD closed the day at its highest levels after bouncing successfully from the bottom line of ascending trend channel. GBP bulls regained their strength and pushed the pair above 1.5900 resistance line even though Nationwide HPI and Mortgage Approvals reports were weaker than forecasted. If the bulls are able to hold the pair above 1.5960 and 1.6000, buying pressure will increase and we will probably reach 1.6125. If the bears defend 1.6000 and pair starts to fall, there will be support at 1.5900, 1.5870 and 1.5800. A close below 1.5775 would negate the bullish trend.
USD/CHF:
USD/CHF is sitting on its daily ascending trend line. The pair looks like it is trying to wind up for a move as the range keeps getting tighter. USD/CHF spent the last days in 0.90-0.91 range. Daily charts show that a breakout will happen soon. The best thing to do is to wait and confirm the direction before opening any positions. If the bulls win the fight and pull the pair higher, look for 0.9115, 0.9149 and 0.9195. If the pair turns bearish and starts to fall, expect to see support at 0.9015 and 0.9840.
USD/JPY:
JPY is firmer heading into its fiscal year-end. Even though the pair broke as low as 81.88, it closed the day above daily support level at 82.30. But the pair looks heavy. Uncertainty over the global economic recovery again aided the JPY. Meanwhile Japanese Finance Minister said they will extend fx position monitoring measures by three months. Support levels will be 82.30, 81.85 and 81.10. Resistance levels are located at 82.80, 83.18 and 84.00.
Yen is Under the Pressure
EUR/USD:
Lately we see that EUR/USD is consolidating between 1.3385 and 1.3275. EUR/USD closed the day lower than opening on Monday after the economic data showed that eurozone unemployment hit fresh high of 10.8%. This is the highest level since the euro was introduced. U.S. manufacturing data came in better than forecasted and that was another element weakening the euro against the greenback. For now 1.3280 is showing strong support and the pair will remain bullish as long as the pair trades above this level. If price drops lower than 1.3280, the bears will probably try to pull the pair back to 1.3230 and 1.3160. If the bulls are able to break and hold above 1.3380, expect a movement towards 1.3475-1.3500 zone. Since Europe problems can be solved only by tackling the real causes, the 1.3500 barrier may be tough to break.
GBP/USD:
Recently GBP/USD is stronger than EUR/USD. Yesterday the pair traded as high as 1.6060 after UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 from a revised 51.5. Bearish EUR/GBP is also helping the pair. It seems that the bullish momentum is slowing during the Asian session today, therefore it is possible to see a pullback to 1.6025 first and then to 1.5965-1.5940 area before we see another rally attempt. If the pair falls below 1.5900, selling pressure would increase and the pair may head back to 1.5863 and then even 1.5800. If the pair continues to trade above 1.5930, the bulls may have another chance to push the price higher. If that is the case, there will most likely be resistance at 1.6073 and 1.6164.
USD/CHF:
Today, the pair is moving near a critical support level at 0.9000. If the pair closes below this level, look for 0.8940 and 0.8868. If the pair turns bullish and can close above 0.9100, expect to see resistance at 0.9176 and 0.9200. The USD/CHF has seen quite a sell-off since it touched 0.9330. USD/CHF is clearly benefiting directly from the recent easing of tension in the eurozone.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY was rather volatile yesterday. The pair had formed a hammer on the daily chart on Friday but it failed to break first important resistance at 83.30. On the other hand, USD/JPY tested 81.50 support 3 days in a row. But we see that pair slipped below 81.85 and traded as low as 81.56. To the downside, there is support at 81.50 and 81.06. To the upside, there is resistance at 82.80, 83.30 and 83.52.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
Yen is Under the Pressure
EUR/USD:
Lately we see that EUR/USD is consolidating between 1.3385 and 1.3275. EUR/USD closed the day lower than opening on Monday after the economic data showed that eurozone unemployment hit fresh high of 10.8%. This is the highest level since the euro was introduced. U.S. manufacturing data came in better than forecasted and that was another element weakening the euro against the greenback. For now 1.3280 is showing strong support and the pair will remain bullish as long as the pair trades above this level. If price drops lower than 1.3280, the bears will probably try to pull the pair back to 1.3230 and 1.3160. If the bulls are able to break and hold above 1.3380, expect a movement towards 1.3475-1.3500 zone. Since Europe problems can be solved only by tackling the real causes, the 1.3500 barrier may be tough to break.
GBP/USD:
Recently GBP/USD is stronger than EUR/USD. Yesterday the pair traded as high as 1.6060 after UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 from a revised 51.5. Bearish EUR/GBP is also helping the pair. It seems that the bullish momentum is slowing during the Asian session today, therefore it is possible to see a pullback to 1.6025 first and then to 1.5965-1.5940 area before we see another rally attempt. If the pair falls below 1.5900, selling pressure would increase and the pair may head back to 1.5863 and then even 1.5800. If the pair continues to trade above 1.5930, the bulls may have another chance to push the price higher. If that is the case, there will most likely be resistance at 1.6073 and 1.6164.
USD/CHF:
Today, the pair is moving near a critical support level at 0.9000. If the pair closes below this level, look for 0.8940 and 0.8868. If the pair turns bullish and can close above 0.9100, expect to see resistance at 0.9176 and 0.9200. The USD/CHF has seen quite a sell-off since it touched 0.9330. USD/CHF is clearly benefiting directly from the recent easing of tension in the eurozone.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY was rather volatile yesterday. The pair had formed a hammer on the daily chart on Friday but it failed to break first important resistance at 83.30. On the other hand, USD/JPY tested 81.50 support 3 days in a row. But we see that pair slipped below 81.85 and traded as low as 81.56. To the downside, there is support at 81.50 and 81.06. To the upside, there is resistance at 82.80, 83.30 and 83.52.
EUR/USD Sinks as Fed Minutes Soften Stimulus Bias
EUR/USD:
Yesterday EUR/USD fell sharply after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting suggested the central bank was less likely to take further stimulus measures. Since many investors were positioned for the next round of quantitative easing, markets reacted strongly after the Fed diminished expectations. Today, after the dust settles, focus will be back to the Europe and debt crisis. Even though today’s European Central Bank meeting is unlikely to deliver any major surprises, markets will be watching President Mario Draghi’s press conference carefully. Other than ECB rate announcement, there will be 2 key news items which may have impact on EUR/USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change reports. EUR/USD is sinking during the Asian session. The pair failed to hold above the daily moving average (50). If the pair keeps falling and price drops lower than 1.3200, look for support at 1.3160-40 zone. If price breaks below 1.3140, selling pressure will increase and the pair will be heading to 1.3045 and 1.3000. If the bulls are able to defend 1.3200-1.3160 area, it is possible to see the pair moving towards 1.3220 and 1.3280.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD stopped its free fell around 1.5870 for now. The bulls failed the keep the pair above 1.60 level after the Fed said it saw no need to ease anew unless growth slows. Monetary Policy Committee will start a two-day policy meeting today. If BoE does not surprise the market, it will leave its bond purchase program at 325 billion pounds and interest rates at 0.5%. GBP/USD will remain bearish if it can’t climb and hold above 1.5925-50 zone. It is possible that the pair will rise and test this level before the bears come back to play. If it turns bullish, expect to see resistance at 1.6000. To the downside, there will be support at 1.5833, 1.5805 and 1.5708.
USD/CAD:
0.9890 support held yesterday as expected. However gains were limited yesterday. Until we see a breakout (either above parity or below 0.9890) the pair will continue to move in this tight band. For tomorrow, the resistance levels are located at 0.9966, 1.0000 and 1.0028. If the pair goes lower, expect to see support at 0.9903, 0.9885 and 0.9864.
AUD/USD:
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady Tuesday, but hinted at future policy ease. AUD/USD fell sharply as investors expect a rate cut in May. The pair is strongly bearish when it trades below 1.0455. AUD/USD may drop to 1.0260 first (50% Fibonacci) or 1.0210 before it gains some strength. Any bounces should be capped at 1.0350-70 today.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
EUR/USD Falls on Poor Spanish Debt Auction
EUR/USD:
The euro lost ground against the U.S. dollar yesterday as poor Spanish bond sale heightened concerns about lower rated euro zone countries and after the ADP report showed that labor market conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace. The ECB left interest rates on hold at 1%. It appears that more policy support from the ECB in the near term is unlikely. EUR/USD slipped below the daily moving average (100) and the candlestick pattern suggests that there is a potential to go lower. Weekly close is very important at this point. In addition the pair is back below the descending trend line. For now the bulls are defending the 1.3100 support level. If price holds above 1.3100 and turns bullish, look for daily resistance at 1.3155-75 and 1.3215. In order for pair to remain bullish, price has to climb and hold above 1.3230. It is possible that the pair will test the broken support at 1.3160 before going lower to test 1.3053 and then 1.3000 level.
GBP/USD:
The GBP/USD has bounced off of the daily support (also the daily moving average). Bearish EUR/GBP is affecting the cable. Britain's economic recovery is under pressure from Europe’s debt crisis therefore investors will be watching the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting today. Daily chart suggests that the pair will maintain its bullish stance as long as it trades above 1.5800-35 area. If the pair goes higher, there will be resistance at 1.5918, 1.5949 and 1.6007. To the downside, there will be support at 1.5835, 1.5800 and 1.5755. The 1.5800 level will be vital for the bulls, and if it gives way, the pair may drop to 1.5650 in a short time.
USD/CFH:
EUR/CHF is floating around the critical levels. If the SNB intervenes in the EUR/CHF pair, USD/CHF will rise as well. USD/CHF moved above its ascending trend line and the pair is climbing towards the first barrier ahead at 0.9200. This level will be the key for the continuation of the bulls’ run and any break above it may mean a bullish march to 0.9320. If the bears win the battle , I will be looking for support at 0.9094-80, 0.9028 and 0.8940.
USD/JPY:
JPY is under the selling pressure when it trades below the 83 level. It seems that USD/JPY is preparing for its next move as it consolidates between 83.30 and 81.85. The pair had an inside day yesterday and closed the day lower than it opened. The pair looks more bearish than bullish but it would be safe to see a breakout before making any decisions. On the way up there will be resistance at 83.00, 83.30 and 84.00 with support below at 81.90, 81.55 and 81.01.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
EU is Failing to Contain Its Debt Crisis
EUR/USD:
It took just 4 days to fall back to 1.3030 from 1.3380 level which the pair had spent 9 days to reach. Yesterday EUR/USD tested 1.3030 support as Spain's debt burden renewed concerns about the eurozone's fiscal stability and after industrial production figures out of Germany disappointed the market. EUR/USD halted at its critical support, 1.3030. This support level has been a very important level since February. In spite of thin market conditions ahead of the Easter holidays, Non-Farm Employment Change data may create a big impact. Problems in Europe are starting to get more investors’ attention. 1.3000 is also a psychological level. For the next few days, considering that the 1.3000 level was a strong support in the past, it may be hard to break it without sufficient volume. Therefore I believe that it is possible to see a bounce towards 1.3100 or even 1.3150. The bulls have to push EUR/USD above 1.3150 to fight another round. However if the pair breaks 1.3000, speculative selling pressure will increase. In that case, look for support at 1.2970, 1.2929 and 1.2860.
GBP/USD:
The Monetary Policy Committee left the total of its asset purchases at £325 billion and kept interest rates at 0.5%. Also the latest report from the Office for National Statistics showed manufacturing output unexpectedly declined 1%. GBP/USD fell after the announcements. The pair found support and paused at 1.5802, which is the daily moving average (50). The most probable scenario in today's trading is that we see price retrace to around 1.5880 before continuing its descent. To the upside, expect to see resistance at 1.5920 and 1.5947. If the pair can close above 1.5900, the bullish trend may resume. If the pair ends the week below 1.5800, general outlook will turn to bearish and I will be looking for 1.5650. To the downside, there will be support at 1.5770 and 1.5708.
USD/CAD:
USD/CAD strengthened yesterday after a government report showed full-time employment in jumped by 70.000 and part-time positions grew by 12.400.This pair keeps failing at the parity level. The bulls have been relentless in their tries but the higher prices are being rejected by traders. Today’s expected trading range is 1.00 and 0.99. Until this trading range is broken, USD/CAD will remain sideways.
AUD/USD:
AUD/USD paused at 1.0242 (Fibonacci 50%) and had a slightly bullish day as markets refocused on Europe's unresolved debt problems and the possibility of contagion from the eurozone. As price action has been overly bearish for the past few days, it is possible to see the pair moving higher. But in order to that it has to break and hold above 1.0330 resistance level. The next resistance levels are located at 1.0394 and 1.0425. If the bears win the fight, support levels will be 1.0240, 1.0187 and 1.0133.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
EUR Gains as U.S. Economic Recovery Remains Sluggish
EUR/USD:
The markets were mixed in limited holiday trade on Friday. Investors’ focus was on the U.S. jobs report even though fears for Spain have grown since its borrowing costs soared on Wednesday in its first debt auction since an austerity budget last week. The report showed that Non-farm payrolls rose by 120K vs. 203K expected. The report was disappointing and it kept the door open for the Fed to provide more monetary support to the sluggish economy. But Europe’s crisis has not ended yet. In addition EU officials are still far from convincing the investors to buy the euro. Sometimes it is better to look at the larger time frames before analyzing the market. Monthly charts show that EUR/USD pair is capped at 1.3385, which is moving average(100) level. Weekly chart indicates the pair has been moving inside a descending channel since late-2008. And finally the daily charts suggest that there is more resistance to the upside. 1.3030-00 zone is still a strong and psychological support but the question is “how long will that support hold?”. If price recovers and moves higher, resistance will be at 1.3150, the 100-day moving average, and 1.3214 will be offering strong resistance above that. If the bears can’t pass 1.3150, look for support at 1.3030 and 1.2970. A break of this level would increase speculative selling pressure.
GBPUSD:
The pair gained on Friday after it found support at its 50-day moving average at 1.5810. The pair had closed the week at 1.5873. On Monday we may see some consolidation between 1.5800 and 1.5900. It is quite possible that the pair will continue its bullish tendencies, but the pair has to break the important resistance located at 1.5900. If the pair can stay above this level, look for 1.5953, 1.5991 and 1.6060. However, if the bears successfully can pull the pair below 1.5800, expect to see support at 1.5736 and 1.5650.
USD/CHF:
The pair is trying to break 0.9200 resistance by the time I write. If the bulls can penetrate 0.9200 resistance, look for 0.9250 and 0.9320. If the bears win the fight, there will be support at 0.9100-0.9080 area and 0.9000. Also keep an eye on the EUR/CHF as it is just above the 1.20 floor level and if SNB intervenes to protect this level, USD/CHF would be affected as well.
USD/JPY:
Bullish momentum is diminishing since USD/JPY touched its descending trend line at 84.15 and failed to break this resistance. It is possible to see pair touching 81.10 before it bounces to 82.05. In order to resume its bullish trend the pair has to break and hold above 82.80. If the bears win the fight and break 81.10 support, look 80.08.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade