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Market outlook by ACFX 5 novmber
Important Financial Indicators of the day
Forecast Previous
GBP 09:30 (GMT) Services PMI 50.6% 51.3%
USD 15:00 (GMT) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.6 52.9
Currencies
EUR/USD The euro gained against most major peers as Italy advanced a plan to cut its deficit before a European summit on the region’s sovereign-debt crisis.
The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.3404 at 2:05 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.3391 on Dec. 2, when it completed a 1.2 percent weekly advance.
AUD/USD The Australian dollar erased gains against the U.S. currency
The so-called Aussie traded at $1.0211 as of 3:40 p.m. in Sydney from $1.0215 last week.
USD/CAD Canada’s dollar staged its biggest five-day rally since October after central banks including the Bank of Canada took steps this week to make it cheaper for lenders to borrow dollars during emergencies.
The loonie, as the currency is also known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, gained 2.6 percent this week to C$1.0195 per U.S. dollar in Toronto.
Commodities
Gold prices traded steady on Monday, after posting their sharpest weekly rise in more than a month, as the euro zone kicks off a week packed with meetings and decisions crucial to the solution to its debt crisis as well as the euro.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,747.29 an ounce by 0326 GMT, after rising nearly 4 per cent in the previous week.
Oil rose for a second day in New York on concern that tension in the Middle East threatens supplies and speculation that Europe will take steps to tame a debt crisis that may curb economic growth.
Crude for January delivery climbed as much as 77 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $101.73 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York.
Equities
Swiss stocks (SMI) climbed, posting their biggest weekly rally since July 2009, after a U.S. report showed the unemployment rate in the world’s largest economy unexpectedly fell in November..
The Swiss Market Index, a measure of the biggest and most actively traded companies, advanced 0.7 percent to 5,718.85 at the close in Zurich.
European stocks posted their biggest weekly rally in three years as central banks moved to ease the region’s debt crisis and China increased cash supply for its banks to speed up growth in the world’s second-largest economy..
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 8.7 percent to 240.73, its largest weekly advance since November 2008
Asian stocks rose for a sixth day, the longest winning streak since Oct. 13, as Italy took steps to resolve its debt problems before European Union leaders meet this week to tackle the region’s crisis.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent to 117.92 as of 2:40 p.m. in Tokyo with six of 10 industry groups on the index gaining.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.5 percent.
Market outlook by ACFX 6/12/11
Important Financial Indicators of the day
Forecast Previous
CAD 13:30 (GMT) Building Permits 2.3% -4.9%
CAD 14:00 (GMT) Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
CAD 15:00 (GMT) Ivey PMI 55.2 54.4
Currencies
• EUR/USD The euro fell for a third day after S&P’s announcement, which put European nations including the six AAA-rated countries on watch for potential downgrades pending the outcome of a Dec. 8-9 leaders summit.
o The 17-nation currency declined 0.3 percent to $1.3367 at 12:47 p.m. in Tokyo.
• GBP/USD The pound strengthened against the dollar, snapping a two-day decline, as optimism that euro-area leaders are acting to ease the region’s debt crisis spurred demand for higher-yielding assets.
o The pound was 0.6 percent stronger at $1.5687 at 4:32 p.m. London time.
• AUD/USD The Australian dollar weakened after the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its key cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent.
o The so-called Aussie slid 0.6 percent to $1.0213 as of 2:32 p.m. in Sydney.
Commodities
• US gold fell on Tuesday, tracking spot prices lower on fears of a possible mass credit rating downgrade for euro zone nations by Standard & Poor's.
o Gold shed 1.1 percent to $1,714.80.
• Oil dropped from the highest in almost three weeks in New York as investors speculated that fuel demand will falter amid signs Europe is struggling to tame its sovereign debt crisis.
o Crude for January delivery fell as much as 61 cents to $100.38 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Equities
• U.S. stocks rose, following the best weekly rally since 2009, as optimism that Europe will tame its debt crisis helped the market weather a late-day selloff on reports that euro-area nations' credit outlooks may be cut.
o The S&P 500 rose 1 percent to 1,257.08 at 4 p.m. New York time.
• European stocks rose, with the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index extending its biggest weekly rally since November 2008, as Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti introduced a proposal to cut his nation’s deb.
o France’s CAC 40 Index advanced 1.2 percent
o U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.3 percent
• Asian stocks fell, with a benchmark gauge headed for its first loss in seven days, after Standard & Poor’s said it may cut credit ratings on Germany, France and 13 other members of the euro amid the worsening debt crisis.
o The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.4 percent to 116.64 as of 1:53 p.m. in Tokyo.
o Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 1 percent.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) fell 1.2 percent
Market outlook by ACFX 7/12/11
December 7th, 2011
Important Financial Indicators of the day
Forecast Previous
GBP 09:30 (GMT) Manufacturing production m/m -0.1% 0.2%
NZD 20:00 (GMT) Official Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50%
Currencies
• EUR/USD The euro rose against the majority of its 16 main counterparts amid speculation Europe will expand funds available to the region’s most-indebted nations as leaders prepare to meet in Brussels tomorrow.
o The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.3445 at 7 a.m. London time.
• USD/CHF The Swiss franc weakened after a report showed consumer prices fell in November, increasing speculation the country’s central bank will lower the ceiling on the currency’s exchange rate.
o It weakened 0.8 percent to 92.77 centimes per dollar.
• USD/CAD Canada’s dollar rose for a second day after Bank of Canada policy makers said growth in the domestic and U.S. economy is stronger than forecast, easing speculation the central bank would signal further monetary easing.
o Canada’s currency appreciated 0.6 percent to C$1.0100 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto.
Commodities
• Gold may gain after exchange-traded product holdings climbed to a record, and speculation that European leaders are making progress in containing the debt crisis boosted the euro and equities.
o Immediate-delivery gold was little changed at $1,729.68 an ounce at 11:20 a.m. in Singapore after rising 0.3 percent yesterday.
• Oil rose for a fourth day in New York on concern global supplies of crude will shrink after the European Union signaled it may ban imports from Iran and U.S. stockpiles declined.
o Crude for January delivery rose as much as 37 cents to $101.65 a barrel and was at $101.60 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 3:45 p.m.
Equities
• U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher a second day, on speculation European leaders may act to contain the debt crisis after S&P put 15 euro nations on review for possible downgrade.
o The S&P 500 advanced 0.1 percent to 1,258.47 at 4 p.m. New York time.
o The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 52.30 points.
• European stocks fell, snapping two days of gains for the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as Standard & Poor’s put 15 euro-area nations on watch for potential rating downgrades.
o The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.3 percent to 241.92 at the close.
o France’s CAC 40 Index (CAC) retreated 0.7 percent.
o U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index added less than 0.1 percent.
• Asian stocks (MXAPJ) rose on speculation European leaders meeting this week in Brussels will step up efforts to fight the debt crisis and stave off lower national credit ratings that may make funding bailouts more costly.
o The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) rose 0.8 percent to 117.48 as of 12:48 p.m. in Tokyo.
o Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) rose 0.8 percent.
o Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased 0.8 percent.
Market outlook by ACFX 8/12/11
December 8th, 2011
Important Financial Indicators of the day
Forecast Previous
GBP 12:00 (GMT) Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
EUR 12:45 (GMT) Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% 1.25%
CAD 13:15 (GMT) Housing Starts 0.3% 0.2%
EUR 13:30 (GMT) ECB Press Conference
USD 13:30 ( GMT) Unemployment Claims 397k 402k
Currencies
• EUR/USD The euro rose against the dollar, after erasing earlier losses, as optimism increased that European leaders will be able to agree on measures to help solve the region’s debt crisis.
o The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.3412 at 5 p.m. in New York after falling as much as 0.4 percent.
• USD/JPY The yen and dollar rose against most major peers as Asian stocks declined amid signs of a slowdown in the region’s economies, boosting demand for refuge currencies.
o The pair was little changed yesterday at 77.65 per dollar.
• USD/CHF The Swiss franc weakened to within one centime of an eight-month low against the dollar after a lawmaker said a government panel is considering using negative interest rates to combat the currency’s appreciation.
o The franc was little changed at 92.49 per dollar at 4:01 p.m. London time after earlier depreciating to 92.88 centimes.
Commodities
• Gold declined after holdings in exchange-traded products fell from a record and the European Central Bank was seen cutting interest rates today ahead of a regional leaders’ summit intended to tackle the debt crisis.
o Immediate-delivery gold fell for the first day in three, losing as much as 0.3 percent to $1,736.43 an ounce and trading at $1,738.02 at 11:30 a.m. in Singapore..
• Oil traded near a one-week low after a gain in inventories indicated demand is recovering more slowly than projected in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer.
o Crude for January delivery was at $100.61 a barrel, up 12 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:25 p.m. in Singapore. It fell 0.8 percent yesterday to $100.49, the lowest settlement since Dec. 1.
Market outlook by ACFX 9/12/11
December 9th, 2011
Important Financial Indicators of the day
Forecast Previous
EUR ALL Day EU Economic Status
GBP 09:30 (GMT) PPI Input 0.3% -0.8%
USD 14:55 (GMT) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 0.3% 0.2%
Currencies
• EUR/USD The euro traded 0.3 percent from a one-week low against the dollar after a summit of European Union leaders failed to forge a unanimous accord, damping prospects for a rapid resolution to the region’s debt crisis.
o Europe’s common currency fetched $1.3334 as of 2:18 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.3341 yesterday and has declined 0.4 percent since Dec. 2.
• AUD/USD Australian dollar rose to $1.0194 as of 1:31 p.m. Sydney time from $1.0167 yesterday in New York.
• NZD/USD New Zealand dollars fell to one-week lows on speculation a European summit will fail to push the region’s debt crisis toward a resolution, damping demand for higher-yielding assets.
o New Zealand’s currency retreated 0.6 percent to 76.81 U.S. cents, after sliding to as low as 76.60, also the weakest since Nov. 30.
Commodities
• Gold traders are more bullish as investors buy metal at the fastest pace in a year to protect their wealth from Europe’s escalating debt crisis.
o Bullion rose 20 percent to $1,712.70 an ounce this year on the Comex in New York, and reached a record $1,923.70 in September.
• Oil fell, heading for the biggest weekly decline since September, as investors speculated that fuel demand will falter as Europe’s leaders struggle to contain its sovereign debt crisis.
o Crude for January delivery dropped as much as 75 cents to $97.59 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $98.01 at 1:35 p.m. Singapore time.
Hello,
Well we have had quite a wild ride over the past few days as was to be expected thanks to the news out of the Euro zone regarding the debt crisis and the rate policy meeting. Yesterday's markets sold off in a major way as ECB honcho Draghi stated that the ECB would not be breaking treaties and stepping up its purchases of distressed sovereign debt. I also mentioned that Draghi said that he was concerned about deflation yesterday, but this was not the case. He said that he was NOT concerned with deflation so that he would not be inclined to ease further. So while the intent was different, the outcome was the same. Apologies for the error yesterday.
So what do we have today? Well today is a case of good news, bad news so this morning I will start with the bad so that I can leave you on a high note. The major bad news is that the EU leaders failed to agree on changes to the existing treaties to increase the fiscal union and allow for better governance. Between that news and Draghi yesterday, the Euro tanked taking down most risk assets in the process.
Nice to meet you
Ricky Johnson
Market outlook by ACFX 12/12/11
December 12th, 2011
Important Financial Indicators of the day
Forecast Previous
GBP Tentative BOE Gov King Speaks
USD 19:00 (GMT) Federal Budget Balance -138.0B -95.5B
Currencies
• EUR/USD The dollar gained against most of its major counterparts before a German report tomorrow that may show investor confidence in Europe’s largest economy slid to a three-year low, boosting demand for safer assets.
o The dollar advanced 0.3 percent to $1.3349 per euro at 6:48 a.m. in London.
• Asian currencies gained after European leaders took steps to contain their debt crisis and U.S. consumer confidence topped forecasts, easing concern that global growth is slowing.
• USD/CAD The Canadian dollar reached its strongest level in five weeks as signs of growth in the U.S., the nation’s biggest trade partner, and Europe’s latest plans to tackle its debt crisis fueled appetite for riskier assets.
o Canada’s currency, also known as the loonie for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, appreciated 0.3 percent to C$1.0169 on friday.
Commodities
• Gold prices fell more than 1 percent on Monday on technical selling and concerns that the European Union summit had stopped short of producing a convincing plan to solve the euro zone debt crisis.
o Spot gold lost as much as 1.5 percent to a two-week low of $1,684.19 an ounce, and regained some lost ground to $1,694.40 by 0411 GMT.
• Oil slid in New York, extending last week’s decline, as concern Europe will be unable to tame its debt crisis countered Iran’s calls for production cuts before an OPEC meeting this week.
o Crude for January delivery fell as much as 37 cents to $99.04 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Equities
• Dubai shares rose the most in a week amid optimism the United Arab Emirates may be upgraded to emerging-market status by MSCI Inc. (MSCI) this week and as European leaders agreed on measures to contain the region’s debt crisis.
o Emaar Properties PJSC (EMAAR), the builder of the world’s tallest skyscraper in Dubai, climbed for a third day.
o The benchmark DFM General Index (DFMGI) advanced 0.9 percent, the biggest gain since Dec. 4.
• U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its first back-to-back weekly gain since October, after European leaders agreed to boost a rescue fund and reports spurred optimism about the economy.
o The S&P 500 climbed 0.9 percent to 1,255.19 after surging 7.4 percent between Nov. 25 and Dec. 2.
o The Dow rose 164.84 points, or 1.4 percent.
• Asian stocks (MXAP) advanced, snapping a two-day losing streak on the region’s benchmark index, after U.S. consumer confidence topped estimates and European leaders agreed to tighter budget rules and expanded a bailout fund.
o Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) increased 1.4 percent.
o Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.8 percent.
Technical Analysis & Market outlook by ACFX 14/12/11
December 14th, 2011 Market outlook
Important Financial Indicators of the day
Forecast Previous
GBP 09:30 (GMT) Claimant Count Change 16.1k 5.3k
USD 15:30 (GMT) Crude Oil Inventories -2.2M 1.3M
Currencies
• EUR/USD The euro traded 0.2 percent from an 11-month low as European nations prepare to sell bonds amid concern the region’s debt crisis is far from resolution.
o The euro traded little changed at $1.3033 as of 2:49 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.3037 yesterday in New York, when it touched $1.3009.
• USD/CAD Canada’s dollar dropped to its weakest level this month after the Federal Reserve supported the U.S. currency by refraining from taking new action to lower borrowing costs.
o The loonie depreciated 0.7 percent to C$1.0343 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. Toronto time after reaching C$1.0349, its weakest since Nov. 30.
• NZD/USD New Zealand dollar traded within half a percent of two-week lows as concern Europe’s debt crisis may prompt sovereign downgrades sapped demand for riskier assets.
o New Zealand’s currency earlier fell to 75.41 cents, the weakest since Nov. 29, before trading little changed from yesterday at 75.66 U.S. cents.
Commodities
• Gold rallied from the lowest level in almost eight weeks as the biggest two-day drop since September spurred more purchases and investor holdings climbed to a record, countering the effect of a stronger dollar.
o Immediate-delivery gold climbed as much as 0.7 percent to $1,642.82 an ounce and was at $1,638.57 at 6:33 a.m. in London.
• Oil traded near a one-week high in New York on signs the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may set an output ceiling similar to current levels at its meeting in Vienna today.
o Crude for January delivery was at $100.01 a barrel, down 13 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 3:52 p.m. Sydney time.
Equities
• Asian stocks fell for a second day as the Federal Reserve refrained from taking new measures to spur growth and U.S. retail sales rose at the slowest pace in five months, clouding the earnings outlook for Asian exporters.
o The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4 percent.
o Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) lost 0.4 percent
• U.S. stocks fell, while the dollar and Treasuries rallied, as the Federal Reserve refrained from taking more steps to stimulate the economy and concern grew that European leaders won’t agree on ways to expand the region’s bailout capacities.
o The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.9 percent.
o The S&P GSCI Index of commodities rose 1.5 percent.
• European stocks climbed, rebounding from their biggest slide in three weeks, as Spain sold more securities than it had planned at a debt auction and a report showed that investor confidence in Germany improved.
o The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.5 percent.
o France’s CAC 40 Index (CAC) slid 0.4 percent.
o Germany’s DAX Index lost 0.2 percent
Technical Analysis & Market outlook by ACFX 15/12/11
December 15th, 2011
Important Financial Indicators of the day
Forecast Previous
CHF 8:30 (GMT) Libor Rate 0.25% 0.25%
GBP 09:30 (GMT) Retail Sales m/m -0.3% 0.6%
EUR 11:25 (GMT) ECB President Dragi Speaks
USD 13:30 (GMT) Unemployment Claims 389k 381k
Currencies
• EUR/USD The euro traded 0.4 percent from the weakest level in 11 months against the dollar amid concern Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will drive up borrowing costs for Spain at a bond auction today.
o The euro traded at $1.2993 as of 6:51 a.m. in London from $1.2983 in New York yesterday, when it dipped below $1.30 for the first time since January and touched $1.2946.
• USD/CAD Canada’s currency sank to the lowest in more than two weeks against its U.S. counterpart as concern European borrowing costs were reaching unsustainable levels sapped demand for riskier assets.
o The loonie, as the currency is known, traded 0.5 percent lower at C$1.0397 by 5 p.m. Toronto time after reaching $1.0424, the weakest since Nov. 28 when it touched C$1.0474.
• NZD/USD New Zealand dollars fell against most of their 16 major peers on concern Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will slow global economic growth, sapping demand for riskier assets.
o New Zealand’s currency fell 0.5 percent to 74.66 U.S. cents after touching 74.62 cents, the weakest since Nov. 28.
Commodities
• Gold extended a rout into a fourth day as concern that Europe’s debt crisis is escalating boosted the dollar, raising the prospect that the precious metal may enter a bear market.
o Spot gold dropped 0.5 percent to $1,566.55 an ounce at 1:46 p.m. in Singapore.
• Oil advanced from a five-week low in New York as investors speculated that yesterday’s drop, the biggest since September, was exaggerated.
o Crude for January delivery increased as much as 83 cents to $95.78 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $95.21 at 4:50 p.m. Sydney time.
Equities
• Asian stocks fell for a third day amid signs of slowing economic growth in China and Japan, and as rising financing costs stoked concern Europe is losing its fight against debt.
o The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.6 percent.
o Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) decreased 1.2 percent.
• U.S. stocks retreated, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a third straight day, as growing funding stress in Europe fueled concern the region is struggling to contain its sovereign debt crisis.
o The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 131.46 points.
• European stocks declined, with the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index falling to its lowest level in two weeks, as the Federal Reserve refrained from taking new action to bolster the world’s largest economy.
o The Stoxx 600 plunged 2.1 percent.
o U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index decreased 2.3 percent.
o France’s CAC 40 Index tumbled 3.3 percent.
Technical Analysis & Market outlook by ACFX December 19th, 2011
Currencies
EUR/USD The dollar rose against most major peers after North Korean state television said national leader Kim Jong Il died, spurring concern instability may increase in the region and boosting demand for the U.S. currency as a haven.
The dollar strengthened 0.3 percent to $1.3011 per euro as of 6:45 a.m. in London from the close in New York on Dec. 16.
AUD/USD The Australian dollar fell against 15 of its 16 major counterparts before the Reserve Bank releases minutes tomorrow of its December meeting when it cut interest rates for the second-straight month.
The Australian dollar fell 0.7 percent to 99.11 U.S. cents as of 4:03 p.m. in Sydney from 99.83 in New York on Dec. 16
Commodities
Gold declined, extending the worst weekly loss since September, as concern that Europe’s sovereign- debt crisis may be worsening and the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il boosted the dollar.
Spot gold fell as much as 1 percent to $1,583.57 an ounce, and traded at $1,589.13 by 2:11 p.m. in Singapore.
Oil dropped for a fourth day before Europe’s latest attempt to contain a sovereign debt crisis that threatens to slow economic growth and demand for fuel.
Crude for January delivery fell as much as 87 cents to $92.67 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $92.76 at 12:51 p.m. Singapore time.
Equities
Asian stocks fell after reports North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has died, extending earlier losses sparked by Fitch Ratings saying it may cut the credit ratings of European nations.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 2.1 percent.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) declined 1.3 percent.
U.S. stocks (SPX) fell, driving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to this month’s first weekly loss, as European leaders struggled to solve the region’s debt crisis and the Federal Reserve refrained from additional stimulus.
The S&P 500 fell 2.8 percent to 1,219.66.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 317.87 points