Update - Daily Technical Levels from FXCC - page 53
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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 11 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 11 2013
Obama puts Syrian action on hold while diplomacy pursued
President Obama addressed the American people on the Syrian conflict, and where the U.S. goes from here, after headlines for a diplomatic resolution inundated media outlets on Tuesday. Barack Obama started the speech with a strong case for a ‘yes’ vote in Congress, saying "We know Asssad's government was responsible" Iran would be emboldened.... "This is not a world we should accept'' , although making clear that the U.S. "will not put American boots on the ground in Syria."
As the speech progressed, a more conciliatory Obama emerged, saying that after the Russian proposal to place under international control Syria's alleged chemical weapons - which Assad's government agreed to -, he asked Congress to postpone a vote on Syria action while diplomacy is pursued, adding that Assa's initiative has the potential to remove weapons without use of force. Obama also said: "Over the last few days we’ve seen some encouraging signs, in part because of the threat of military action." Since Obama was specific about the slim chances of an immediate attack, the speech supports the recent bid on risk assets.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
N/A | The US Congress votes on military action against Syria
2013-09-11 08:30 GMT | UK Claimant Count Change (Aug)
2013-09-11 15:30 GMT | UK MPC Member Miles Speech
2013-09-11 21:00 GMT | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-11 05:41 GMT | GBP/JPY still up near the highs and eyeing 158.46 after convincing breakout
2013-09-11 05:25 GMT | USD/CHF on higher levels as geo-political tensions are fading away
2013-09-11 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD tumbling after Obama’s address; 1.3278 resistance looms large
2013-09-11 04:29 GMT | GBP/USD heads into employment report easing away from 1.5737 resistance
-----------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.32819 LOW 1.32437 BID 1.32491 ASK 1.32493 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 09 : 05:26
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possible upwards extension above the resistance level at 1.3266 (R1) is liable to commence medium-term bullish structure. Important fractal levels offers next targets at 1.3282 (R2) and 1.3298 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our short-term outlook would be negative. Possible extension lower the 1.3240 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to initial supports at 1.3226 (S2) and 1.3211 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3266, 1.3282, 1.3298
Support Levels: 1.3240, 1.3226, 1.3211
-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.57417 LOW 1.57186 BID 1.57190 ASK 1.57197 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 09 : 05:34
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our key resistive measure at 1.5744 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5767 (R2) and 1.5789 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, currency pair might encounter supportive measures at 1.5711 (S1). Break here would open the way for a test of our next targets at 1.5689 (S2) and 1.5666 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.5744, 1.5767, 1.5789
Support Levels: 1.5711, 1.5689, 1.5666
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.609 LOW 100.139 BID 100.430 ASK 100.433 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 09 : 05:35
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Mark at 100.65 (R1) acts as next resistive barrier on the way if the instrument keeps it upside potential. Break here is required to achieve higher targets at 100.93 (R2) and 101.19 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 100.12 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our supportive barrier at 99.85 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 99.59 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.65, 100.93, 101.19
Support Levels: 100.12, 99.85, 99.59
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 12 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 12 2013
Barroso calls for quick implementation of Eurozone banking union
Europe is on a road to recovery, but efforts must still be made to prop it up, president of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso said on Wednesday, delivering the annual State of the Union speech. He listed unemployment as the the most burning issue to solve, as its current level is “economically unsustainable, politically untenable and socially unacceptable.” Speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Barroso pointed to the recent improvements in the European financial markets as well as the better situation in Greece. “For Europe, recovery is within sight. Let's not overestimate the progress, but neither should we underestimate what has been done,” he said.
He called for a quicker implementation of the Eurozone banking union, which would help boost growth and employment. Finalizing discussions on the next EU budget was also listed as a top priority. Furthermore, Barroso stressed the need for a tighter political union, suggesting that “Europe must focus on where it can add most value. It needs to be big on big things and smaller on smaller things.” The European Commission president also referred to the chemical attack in Syria, which the EU condemns but still hopes to see the a conflict resolved through a negotiated settlement.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-12 08:00 GMT | ECB Monthly Report
2013-09-12 09:00 GMT | UK Inflation Report Hearings
2013-09-12 11:40 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-09-12 12:30 GMT | US Initial Jobless Claims
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-12 05:33 GMT | AUD/USD falls apart on softest Australian jobs data
2013-09-12 05:26 GMT | Gold teetering on the brink above 1,351.60 key support
2013-09-12 05:07 GMT | Overbought GBP/USD buoyant at 1.5835 ahead of data / events
2013-09-12 04:50 GMT | EUR/GBP threatening the 0.84 big support
---------------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.33241 LOW 1.33041 BID 1.33043 ASK 1.33047 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 53:11
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.3325 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.3339 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.3354 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument looks overbought and we expect to see some consolidation pattern ahead. Risk of possible price regress is seen below the support level at 1.3299 (S1). Break here would suggest lower targets at 1.3283 (S2) and 1.3268 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3325, 1.3339, 1.3354
Support Levels: 1.3299, 1.3283, 1.3268
-------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.58316 LOW 1.58131 BID 1.58144 ASK 1.58146 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 53:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Mark at 1.5837 (R1) acts as next resistive barrier on the way if the pair keeps it upside potential. Break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.5861 (R2) and 1.5886 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Medium term bias is clearly positive however we expect recovery action if the price manages to overcome key supportive bastion at 1.5800 (S1). In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5775 (S2) and 1.5748 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5837, 1.5861, 1.5886
Support Levels: 1.5800, 1.5775, 1.5748
------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.99 LOW 99.394 BID 99.493 ASK 99.495 CHANGE -0.39% TIME 08 : 53:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY tested negative territory today though appreciation above the resistive structure at 99.69 (R1) might shift short-term tendency to the bullish side and validate our intraday targets at 99.88 (R2) and 100.08 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish corrective structure might lead to further downtrend evolvement later on today. Penetration below the support at 99.33 (S1) would suggest next intraday targets at 99.14 (S2) and 98.96 (S3) in perspective.
Resistance Levels: 99.69, 99.88, 100.08
Support Levels: 99.33, 99.14, 98.96
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 13 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 13 2013
Countdown for QE taper fireworks is on!
The judgment day for the Fed, Sept 17, is nearing, and the market is preparing accordingly for what may represent the most important monetary policy decision taken in years, as the start of QE taper gets kick-started. Even if the next FOMC meeting comes on the back of a rather disappointing NFP past Friday, the communication strategy carried out by Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. so far suggest that some sort of light taper should be expected, or else the sell-off in the USD might be one that make headlines all over the world. According to Adam Button, Editor at Forexlive, "The market has settled on $10 billion as the most-likely size for the Fed’s taper next week", anticipating that "larger and the dollar will rally hard, smaller and it will fall."
Meanwhile, Treasury traders seem to be perceive the taper being priced in less than 10bln, which makes a bullish case for a stronger USD for those supporting odds for a more aggressive taper. If this scenario happens to be true, some long USD plays vs other G10 currencies such as the NZD, EUR or even the CAD, might be a great play based on this assumption. As Button notes: "I think it’s clear that a taper is coming but the Fed could still change its mind on the size and the messages that accompany it. Two reports in the days ahead could change their thinking: retail sales on Friday and the CPI on Monday."
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | EMU EcoFin Meeting
2013-09-13 12:30 GMT | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
2013-09-13 13:55 GMT | US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep)
2013-09-13 14:00 GMT | US Business Inventories (Aug)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-13 05:17 GMT | GBP/USD little moved after Carney, US job data
2013-09-13 04:52 GMT | NZD/USD faces formidable 0.8150/70 tech resistance
2013-09-13 04:39 GMT | USD stronger ahead of US retail sales; Gold stalls
2013-09-13 04:38 GMT | EUR/USD capped by 1.3300
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33022 LOW 1.32644 BID 1.32677 ASK 1.32680 CHANGE -0.23% TIME 08 : 40:28
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3286 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3302 (R2) and then final aim locates at 1.3317 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.3256 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.3240 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.3225 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3286, 1.3302, 1.3317
Support Levels: 1.3256, 1.3240, 1.3225
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.58117 LOW 1.57766 BID 1.57812 ASK 1.57816 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 40:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD tested negative side recently, however we see potential to test resistive barrier at 1.5812 (R1) later on today. Successful penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5838 (R2) and 1.5864 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.5775 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 1.5750 (S2) and 1.5725 (S3) as possible intraday targets.
Resistance Levels: 1.5812, 1.5838, 1.5864
Support Levels: 1.5775, 1.5750, 1.5725
--------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.976 LOW 99.418 BID 99.861 ASK 99.866 CHANGE 0.33% TIME 08 : 40:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Further price appreciation is a likely scenario for today according to the technical readings. If the pair manages to clear the barrier at 100.08 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 100.24 (R2) and 100.40 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next supportive barrier lies at 99.72 (S1). Break here is required to enable downside expansion towards to our intraday targets at 99.54 (S2) and 99.36 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 100.08, 100.24, 100.40
Support Levels: 99.72, 99.54, 99.36
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 16 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 16 2013
US and Russia outline diplomatic framework on Syria
Asian markets reacted positively at the open, cheering up what is perceived as a headline likely to fuel risk-on appetite, as news hit the wires on a political U.S. / Russia deal for the Syrian crisis over the weekend. Despite the easing in geopolitical tensions, there are still claims from both sides of the political spectrum in the U.S. implying the deal with Russia is a defeat by the US administration. In an interview with ABC over the weekend, Obama said limited military action should not be rule out just yet, should the Assad regime not comply to disarm its chemical arsenal. In a joint news conference between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, a framework document for Syria to surrender its chemical stockpiles was outlined, with Kerry calling Assad to live up to its commitments.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-16 08:00 GMT | EMU ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-09-16 09:00 GMT | EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Aug)
2013-09-16 09:00 GMT | EMU Labour cost (Q2)
2013-09-16 13:15 GMT | US Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-16 05:07 GMT | GBP/USD flirting with 1.6000 on risk-on sentiment
2013-09-16 04:40 GMT | Expecting a $20bn Fed taper - RBS
2013-09-16 04:11 GMT | USD/CHF trading just above 0.9230 support after Fed / Summers news
2013-09-16 03:51 GMT | EUR/USD spikes on much more dovish Yellen
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33822 LOW 1.33551 BID 1.33622 ASK 1.33627 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 34:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 1.3384 (R1). Break here would open route towards to higher target at 1.3405 (R2) and any further price advance would then be limited to 1.3426 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 1.3339 (S1) is required to activate new phase of downtrend expansion. We would suggest next aim at 1.3318 (S2) and then final target could be met at 1.3295 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3384, 1.3405, 1.3426
Support Levels: 1.3339, 1.3318, 1.3295
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59576 LOW 1.59302 BID 1.59529 ASK 1.59535 CHANGE 0.5% TIME 08 : 34:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive measure at 0.5971 (R1) on the upside. Break here is required to enable bullish potential and expose our interim target at 1.6000 (R2). Further price appreciation would then be limited to last resistance at 1.6030 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price devaluation below the support at 1.5919 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 1.5889 (S2) en route to final aim for today at 1.5858 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5971, 1.6000, 1.6030
Support Levels: 1.5919, 1.5889, 1.5858
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.104 LOW 98.456 BID 98.925 ASK 98.928 CHANGE -0.44% TIME 08 : 34:24
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Discounted value of USDJPY determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. From the technical side, next resistance is seen at 99.11 (R1). Only clearance here would allow possible gains, targeting 99.33 (R2) and 99.54 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the market decline is seen below the support level at 98.44 (S1). Break here is required to open the way towards to immediate supports at 98.25 (S2) and 98.04 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.11, 99.33, 99.54
Support Levels: 98.44, 98.25, 98.04
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 17 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 17 2013
The Fed to maintain forward guidance with firm tone, says Hilsenrath
The Federal Reserve is struggling to justify extending forward guidance as part of its strategy to maintain the recovery path according to Fedwatcher Jon Hilsenrath in his latest article on the FOMC policy meeting. The FOMC is expected to publish its interest rate and monetary policy decision on Wednesday September 18 and market is widely expecting the Fed to start its cut in the bond buying program. The Fedwatcher affirmed in his piece that "Federal Reserve officials face a communication challenge explaining their interest-rate plans when they gather for a policy meeting this week."
Their challenge is "how to justify the low interest-rate plan when their own estimates suggest an economy regaining its health." According to Hilsenrath, Fed forecasts could show "rates rising but still low" by 2016. The Fed also expects economy at "full employment" by the same year. The decision on QE tapering the $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program is now a close call "on whether to start pulling back on the QE." The Fed is now changing its emphasis from bond buying to the "low-rate pledge."
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-17 08:30 GMT : UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
2013-09-17 09:00 GMT : EMU ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Aug)
2013-09-17 12:30 GMT : US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
2013-09-17 13:00 GMT : US Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Jul)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-17 05:29 GMT : NZD/USD downwards in tandem with “Aussie”
2013-09-17 04:43 GMT : EUR/USD sails below EMA20 - extending trading range
2013-09-17 04:43 GMT : EUR/GBP still under the 0.84 handle ahead of German ZEW & UK CPI
2013-09-17 04:16 GMT : AUD/JPY pops up after RBA minutes
-----------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33422 LOW 1.33252 BID 1.33396 ASK 1.33398 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 56:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Current price setup is looking for upwards extension possibility. Risk of the price acceleration is seen above the key resistance level at 1.3361 (R1). Clearance here would put immediate focus on the next targets at 1.3384 (R2) and then 1.3405 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 1.3321 (S1). Possible penetration below it might initiate bearish pressure and gradually push the price towards to our intraday targets at 1.3298 (S2) and 1.3275 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3361, 1.3384, 1.3405
Support Levels: 1.3321, 1.3298, 1.3275
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59151 LOW 1.58884 BID 1.59091 ASK 1.59098 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 56:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY High
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD resumed upwards penetration today and we see potential to expose our intraday targets at 1.5996 (R2) and 1.6030 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.5964 (R1). Downwards scenario: Though, we still keep the bearish scenario in focus. Risk of market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.5888 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 1.5853 (S2) and 1.5818 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5964, 1.5996, 1.6030
Support Levels: 1.5888, 1.5853, 1.5818
-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.358 LOW 99.009 BID 99.145 ASK 99.147 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 56:14
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
Upwards scenario: Price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 99.36 (R1). Our interim target holds at 99.56 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 99.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: However if the price manages to break our key support level at 99.00 (S1) bearish market participants might take the initiative. Our intraday support level locates at 98.79 (S2) and 98.58 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.56, 99.77
Support Levels: 99.00, 98.79, 98.58
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 18 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 18 2013
All eyes on the Fed as investors weigh September taper odds
As the September Fed monetary policy meeting is drawing near, the debate on the FOMC's possible decision to start scaling back the asset purchase program is becoming more and more heated. Recent developments, such as the disappointing August NFP numbers, as well as the ongoing Syrian conflict, have shaken economists' confidence as to whether the QE taper will really be initiated next week. “With a job market 'far from satisfactory' and a promise to adjust monetary policy depending on economic conditions, it would not be a surprise if the Fed postpones the reduction of monthly asset purchases until the next meeting in late October,” Ilian Yotov suggests. Alexandra Estiot also doesn't expect the Fed to make the move at the upcoming meeting, reasoning that “the likeliness of inflation pressures showing up is close to zero,” which means “the cost, in terms of inflation, of ending QE3 too late is nil, while the benefits, even if very difficult to clearly assess, are positive.” Despite the doubts about whether the Fed will start reducing QE in September, all of the economists agree with Steve Ruffley that the FOMC “are planning to taper by the end of the year and nothing will change this.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-18 08:30 GMT | Bank of England Minutes
2013-09-18 18:00 GMT | US Fed Interest Rate Decision
2013-09-18 18:30 GMT | US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
2013-09-18 22:45 GMT | NZ Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-18 05:21 GMT | USD/CHF muted ahead of FOMC minutes
2013-09-18 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD rebounds from ST dip but remains below 1.3432 ceiling ahead of US data / news
2013-09-18 04:58 GMT | EUR/GBP battling to recover the 0.84 handle ahead of BoE
2013-09-18 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD holding below the flat line ahead of BOE minutes and FOMC fun
-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33639 LOW 1.33468 BID 1.33619 ASK 1.33621 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 43:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD trapped to the consolidation mode on the hourly chart frame after the initial uptrend formation. Next resistive barrier is seen at 1.3384 (R1), break here is required to enable next attractive points at 1.3405 (R2) and 1.3427 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday low offers a key supportive measure at 1.3324 (S1). A violation here is liable to commence correction pattern on the bigger picture and expose our initial targets at 1.3301 (S2) and 1.3275 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3384, 1.3405, 1.3427
Support Levels: 1.3324, 1.3301, 1.3275
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59146 LOW 1.58919 BID 1.59133 ASK 1.59136 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 43:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Local high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.5936 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.5971 (R2) and 1.6008 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the support level at 1.5885 (S1) would suggest next intraday target at 1.5851 (S2) and any further weakening would then be limited to final support level at 1.5816 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5936, 1.5971, 1.6008
Support Levels: 1.5885, 1.5851, 1.5816
-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.336 LOW 99.103 BID 99.194 ASK 99.197 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 43:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Possible bullish penetration might face next challenge at 99.38 (R1). Break here would suggest next target at 99.58 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 99.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, we see potential to positively retest our supportive measure at 99.03 (S1). Clearance here is required to open route towards to our initial targets at 98.84 (S2) and 98.64 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 99.38, 99.58, 99.77
Support Levels: 99.03, 98.84, 98.64
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 19 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 19 2013
The Fed decides to maintain the status quo; No taper
The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. Same story with the bond buying pace at $85Bn as officials need more information that the economy is growing at a sustainable pace. According to a recent press release, the Fed affirms that the pace of bond purchases depends on the economic outlook. The inflation is still low, financial market conditions are tight while the fiscal retrenchment could be damaging, so the FOMC needs more signs of progress.
"Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month." The Fed has lowered its growth expectations and now officials forecast the US GDP to slowdown in 2016 to 2.5%-3.3% range, from 3.0%-3.5% in 2014. They see 2013 to show a 2.0%-2.3% growth in the United States. The unemployment rate is expected to finish the year around 7.2%-7.3% and to decline to 6.5%-6.8% in 2014, 5.8%-6.2% in 2015 and 5.4%-5.9% in 2016.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-19 07:30 GMT | SW SNB Interest Rate Decision
2013-09-19 08:30 GMT | UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)
2013-09-19 14:00 GMT | US Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Aug)
2013-09-19 23:50 GMT | JP Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Sep 13)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-19 04:52 GMT | USD licking its wounds; China markets closed
2013-09-19 04:34 GMT | USD/CHF slightly lower at 0.9119 ahead of big data; ultimate dowside may be 0.9073
2013-09-19 04:33 GMT | Fed relies heavily on low yields regarding “tapering” – RBS
2013-09-19 04:18 GMT | AUD/USD slightly downwards but still dancing close to 0.9500 area
----------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3536 LOW 1.3501 BID 1.35318 ASK 1.35320 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 40:15
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Medium-term bias is clearly bullish oriented, however, to resume ascending structure price is required to clear the barrier at 1.3543 (R1). Next on tap locates our intraday targets at 1.3567 (R2) and 1.3593 (R3).Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our next support measure lies at 1.3499 (S1). Decline below it would enable lower targets at 1.3474 (S2) and 1.3448 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3543, 1.3567, 1.3593
Support Levels: 1.3499, 1.3474, 1.3448
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.61478 LOW 1.61146 BID 1.61302 ASK 1.61307 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08 : 40:16
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: On the upside market might get more incentives above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.6168 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6215 (R2) and 1.6264 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.6089 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest initial targets at 1.6040 (S2) and then 1.5989 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6168, 1.6215, 1.6264
Support Levels: 1.6089, 1.6040, 1.5989
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.475 LOW 97.897 BID 98.280 ASK 98.282 CHANGE 0.37% TIME 08 : 40:16
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY is approaching our next resistance level at 98.51 (R1), keeping the short-term ascending structure intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 98.86 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 99.21 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 97.76 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support level at 97.46 (S2) and then final target could be exposed at 97.14 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.51, 98.86, 99.21
Support Levels: 97.76, 97.46, 97.14
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 20 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 20 2013
Asset purchase schemes remaining static.
As the tide went out on the shock decision by the FOMC regarding their asset purchase schemes remaining static, the markets in the USA appeared to pause for thought in Thursday's trading sessions. Looking at high impact news events the improved unemployment data was discounted given the fact that two states, including California, failed to proved jobs data as their computer systems were still off grid. Better news came in the form of house sales reaching a recent high, whilst the Philly Fed number came in off the scale in terms of positivity. The improved housing market news was added to by costs for U.S. home buyers predicted to fall from the highest level in two years after the Federal Reserve increased expectations that it will keep short-term interest rates at about zero percent. Rates on 30-year mortgages reached 4.93 percent in the week ended Sept 6th, the highest level seen since April 2011 and up from a record low of 3.57 percent in December, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. The rate declined to 4.86 percent last week. Treasuries dropped the day after experiencing the biggest rally in two years as improved economic conditions made investors more certain that the Federal Reserve’s next move will be to reduce monetary stimulus. The 10-year yield rose six basis points or 0.06 percentage point to 2.75 percent late in the New York session. The price of the 2.5 percent note maturing in August 2023 dropped 17/32, or, $5.31 per $1,000 face value, to 97 26/32. The yield slid 16 basis points on Wednesday, the biggest decline since Oct 31st 2011.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-20 08:30 GMT | UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Aug)
2013-09-20 12:30 GMT | CA Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
2013-09-20 14:00 GMT | EMU Consumer Confidence (Sep)
2013-09-20 16:30 GMT | US Fed's George Speech
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-20 05:18 GMT | RBA likely to ease again; AUD to trade heavy - NAB
2013-09-20 05:15 GMT | GBP/USD bouncing modestly at 1.6042 after downside correction day Thursday
2013-09-20 05:11 GMT | GBP/JPY finds strong supply at 160 round
2013-09-20 04:38 GMT | EUR/GBP stalling below 0.8450 ahead of Germany elections
---------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.35393 LOW 1.35279 BID 1.35354 ASK 1.35357 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 47:18
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Next hurdle that limit uptrend development lies at 1.3569 (R1). If the break occurs here we would suggest next attractive point at 1.3598 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.3628 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right below the local low at 1.3507 (S1). Clearance here is liable to open way towards to our interim target at 1.3474 (S2) and then might expose final aim at 1.3440 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3569, 1.3598, 1.3628
Support Levels: 1.3507, 1.3474, 1.3440
---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60462 LOW 1.60238 BID 1.60450 ASK 1.60454 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 47:19
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.6082 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way towards to next interim target at 1.6126 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.6170 (R3) Downwards scenario: On the downside, next support level locates at 1.6021 (S1). Possible penetration below this mark would open way towards to next target at 1.5978 (S2) and then any further market decline would be limited to last mark at 1.5933 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6082, 1.6126, 1.6170
Support Levels: 1.6021, 1.5578, 1.5933
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.562 LOW 99.174 BID 99.253 ASK 99.257 CHANGE -0.22% TIME 08 : 47:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Possible uptrend development is limited now to the next resistive measure at 99.63 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable our interim target at 99.85 (R2) en route to final aim at 100.06 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support level at 99.10 (S1) might maintain a negative tone in near term perspective. In such case we would suggest next supportive measures at 98.87 (S2) and 98.64 (S3) as possible retracement targets.
Resistance Levels: 99.63, 99.85, 100.06
Support Levels: 99.10, 98.87, 98.64
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 23 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 23 2013
Merkel wins German election, arduous coalition talks ahead...
Asian traders bought up the Euro through interbank trading, following early evidence of what later was confirmed as the best result for Merkel's conservative party in a general election since 1990, with the Chancellor receiving around 42% of all votes to keep her post as one of the most powerful women on the globe for a third term. Despite the early enthusiasm, the excitement faded pretty quick, with traders deciding to be sidelined as Merkel still faces a tough road ahead, now having to engage on coalition negotiation to form a government - a process which may take weeks if not months - after Mekel's CDU fell very short from claiming an absolute majority.
As the quiet Asian session advanced, and with the Tokyo market closed due to public holidays, the only relevant headline to outline was the Chinese HSBC PMI, which came at a 6-month high, supporting the Australian Dollar across the board. On the commodity arena, metals were hammered yet again, following Fed's Bullard comments on Friday, which triggered the 'taper trade' again, after saying that the October FOMC meeting was still 'live' in terms of tapering.-FXstreet.com
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-23 07:28 GMT | DE Markit Services PMI (Sep)
2013-09-23 07:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
2013-09-23 12:58 GMT | US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
2013-09-23 13:00 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-23 05:18 GMT | EUR/USD still indecisive just above flat line; 1.3534 is the level to conquer for the bulls
2013-09-23 05:02 GMT | GBP/JPY upwards amidst of a Tokyo-holiday session
2013-09-23 04:33 GMT | USD/CHF finishes “abc” upside correction at 0.9122; headed lower
2013-09-23 03:56 GMT | USD/JPY bracing for takeoff?
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.35459 LOW 1.35202 BID 1.35293 ASK 1.35297 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08 : 40:09
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Technically, next resistive structure lies at 1.3549 (R1). Break here is required to initiate upwards action towards to next target at 1.3583 (R2) and then final aim could be exposed at 1.3618 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, current range pattern on the hourly chart suggest possible retest of our supportive measure at 1.3507 (S1). Break here is required to open way towards to initial targets at 1.3474 (S2) and 1.3440 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3549, 1.3583, 1.3618
Support Levels: 1.3507, 1.3474, 1.3440
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60314 LOW 1.59929 BID 1.60220 ASK 1.60224 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 40:10
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 1.6044 (R1) prevents possible gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 1.6075 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 1.6106 (R3). Downwards scenario: Local low offers a key support level on the downside. A dip below the 1.5987 (S1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5956 (S2) and potentially 1.5925 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6044, 1.6075, 1.6106
Support Levels: 1.5987, 1.5956, 1.5925
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USDJPY :
HIGH 99.359 LOW 99.084 BID 99.117 ASK 99.119 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 08 : 40:11
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited now to resistive measure at 99.36 (R1). Break here is required to enable uptrend formation towards to higher target at 99.55 (R2). Final aim for today locates at 99.74 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important resistive measure at 99.04 (S1). Break here is required to drive market price towards to next visible targets at 98.86 (S2) and 98.69 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.55, 99.74
Support Levels: 99.04, 98.86, 98.69
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 24 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 24 2013
A tale of three central banks
Two European central bank presidents spoke on Monday concerning their overall relative responsibilities. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he’s prepared to release another long-term refinancing operation in order to provide funds to Europe’s banking system if and when needed. Unlike previous times after Mr Draghi has held court, the market reaction this time was muted. The Swiss franc is still highly valued and the central bank’s currency ceiling remains essential for safeguarding the economy, according to Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan in his statement on Monday. Therefore the loose peg, in relation to the value of the Swiss franc versus the euro, at circa 120, will remain in force until conditions change. The U.S. currency fell versus the majority of its sixteen major peers as a consequence of the Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart and others stating that Fed policy should focus on creating a more dynamic economy. Lockhart has continually backed the Fed’s $85 billion in monthly bond purchases that were retained last week.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-24 08:00 GMT | DE IFO - Business Climate (Sep)
2013-09-24 12:30 GMT | CA Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
2013-09-24 14:00 GMT | US Consumer Confidence (Sep)
2013-09-24 22:45 GMT | NZ Trade Balance (YoY) (Aug)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-24 05:16 GMT | EUR/USD churning above support of 1.3476 ahead of German data
2013-09-24 05:01 GMT | EUR/GBP struggles to maintain the 0.8400 support
2013-09-24 04:42 GMT | GBP/USD off slightly Tuesday after brief rally Monday; key support 1.5894
2013-09-24 03:59 GMT | USD/JPY pulling back away from 99.52 resistance as Yen sees safety inflows
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.34985 LOW 1.3489 BID 1.34953 ASK 1.34955 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08 : 47:25
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the resistance at 1.3517 (R1) might commence new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 1.3538 (R2) and 1.3560 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.3478 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of further market easing towards to next targets at 1.3458 (S2) and 1.3437 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3517, 1.3538, 1.3560
Support Levels: 1.3478, 1.3458, 1.3437
---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60443 LOW 1.60252 BID 1.60256 ASK 1.60261 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 47:26
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Market price penetrated below the moving averages and likely close at the negative side today. Our next resistive measure lies at 1.6054 (R1), break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.6083 (R2) and 1.6109 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible market weakening is protected by important technical level at 1.6016 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to interim target at 1.5989 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.5962 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6054, 1.6083, 1.6109
Support Levels: 1.6016, 1.5989, 1.5962
-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.93 LOW 98.662 BID 98.921 ASK 98.923 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 47:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: We expect possible upwards penetration. Break above the resistance at 98.93 (R1) would clear the way towards to higher target at 99.10 (R2). Further price appreciation would face then final resistive measure at 99.27 (R3) Downwards scenario: Our next support level locates at 98.63 (S1) mark. Possible penetration below this level would open way towards to next target at 98.47 (S2) and then final aim lie at 98.31 (S3) price level.
Resistance Levels: 98.93, 99.10, 99.27
Support Levels: 98.63, 98.47, 98.31
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )