Update - Daily Technical Levels from FXCC - page 42
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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 15 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 15 2013
Van Rompuy issues day-1 EU summit statement
After concluding the first evening of talks among Euro zone leaders, President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy issued a first statement proving details over how best to guide European economic policies. Van Rompuy said: "We reconfirmed our overall economic strategy. It has four strands: First. Restoring financial stability, and maintaining it: this is vital for confidence of consumers and investors, a key condition for internal demand and growth; Second. Ensuring sound public finances, structurally sound; Third. Urgently fighting unemployment – especially for youth, for whom the situation is dramatic in some countries. Four. And reforming for long-term growth and competitiveness."
The statement adds: "We all agree we need to keep turning our commitments into actions and results. Implementation continues to be key. The good progress towards structurally balanced budgets must continue. For each individual country, it's about making choices that make sense in the long run: Pursuing well-designed structural reforms; Being ruthless on tax evasion. Shifting taxation away from labour; Expenditure cuts where it makes us fitter, not sacrificing vital areas like innovation or education; And launching fast-acting and targeted measures to boost growth and employment, in particular for the youth." Starting in June, Van Rompuy made the pledge to start looking not only at national reform and jobs plans, "but also at the results of the Growth Compact concluded last year" he said, adding that "as a matter of fact, the President of the European Commission made a first report on the results of the Growth Compact already this evening."
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Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | E.M.U. European Council meeting
2013-03-15 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-15 12:30 GMT | United States. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-15 13:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar)
Forex News :
2013-03-15 06:01 GMT | Euro buyers insist to defend $1.30; volatility to be on the rise
2013-03-15 04:48 GMT | USD/JPY unlikely to go lower on Japanese foreign investment - Nomura
2013-03-15 04:37 GMT | AUD/NZD higher, stalls below 1.2700/200 day SMA
2013-03-15 03:55 GMT | GBP could decline further – HSBC
-------------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.30267 LOW 1.29992 BID 1.30192 ASK 1.30198 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:12:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Current price setup is aiming to resume initial upwards formation. Next resistive bastion lies at 1.3031 (R1). If the pair manages to overcome it we expect further progress towards to our initial targets at 1.3044 (R2) and 1.3057 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although, consolidation development looks reasonable on the hourly timeframe. If the market manages break our next support at 1.2997 (S1) we would suggest next supportive measures at 1.2985 (S2) and 1.2975 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3031, 1.3044, 1.3057
Support Levels: 1.2997, 1.2985, 1.2975
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51039 LOW 1.50686 BID 1.50857 ASK 1.50867 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08:12:28
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Market remains under the uptrend formation and a break above the resistance level at 1.5119 (R1) might resume bullish pressure. In such scenario, we would suggest next target at 1.5138 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the next supportive mean at 1.5068 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable lower target at 1.5047 (S2) and even 1.5027 (R3) mark could be exposed if the pair accelerates on the downside.
Resistance Levels: 1.5119, 1.5138, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5068, 1.5047, 1.5027
---------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.274 LOW 95.882 BID 96.089 ASK 96.093 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08:12:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY continues moving sideways however we see possibility to overcome our next resistive barrier at 96.26 (R1). Progress above it would suggest next intraday targets at 96.48 (R2) and 96.70 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Any downside penetration is limited to the initial support level at 95.88 (S1). A breach of which would open a route towards to next target at 95.67 (S2) and potentially could expose our final support for today at 95.42 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 96.26, 96.48, 96.70
Support Levels: 95.88, 95.67, 95.42
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Trading Blog | Forex Account | ECN Forex Software | FXCC )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 18 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 18 2013
Cyprus faces 'corralito' à la Argentinean
Back in May 2012, fears that Greece may leave the EU triggered bank runs in the country, and many economist speculated with the possibility of the country establishing a “corralito”- the economic measures taken in Argentina at the end of 2001 that almost completely froze bank accounts and forbade withdrawals from U.S. dollar-denominated accounts. Bank runs extended then to Spain and Italy, although they finally come under control. But revival came back this weekend: Cyprus bail-out approval cost almost €6 billion to taxpayers, which next Tuesday –Monday will be declared bank holiday-, will find something different in their bank accounts: a one-off 9.9% levy imposed on all deposits over the insurance threshold of €100,000. For accounts below the insurance ceiling, the onetime tax will be of 6.75%.
Cyprus PM Michael Sarris, admitted it was a tough decision, and even stated “I wish I was not the minister to do this,” although he added that “much more money could have been lost in a bankruptcy of the banking system or indeed of the country.” Without a rescue, Cyprus would default and threaten to unravel investor confidence in the EU that has been fostered by ECB’s president Mario Draghi promise to do “whatever it takes” to shore up the currency bloc. However, a precedent has been set, and this partial “corralito” may trigger exactly what is trying to prevent: an erosion in investors’ confidence in the EU, and bank runs, if not in Cyprus, in the rest of the peripheral troubled countries. Monday European opening may see bank runs, particularly in Spain and Italy, and a domino effect may force governments to take extraordinary measures. “Corralito” arrived to Europe, and may be here to stay.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-18 06:45 GMT | Switzerland. SECO Economic Forecasts
2013-03-18 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Trade Balance n.s.a. (Jan)
2013-03-18 12:30 GMT | Canada. Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Jan)
2013-03-18 23:15 GMT | Australia. RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech
Forex News :
2013-03-18 05:52 GMT | GBP/USD stable around 1.51 despite the turmoil
2013-03-18 05:27 GMT | Cyprus all over the place and EUR/USD below 1.29
2013-03-18 03:25 GMT | EUR/GBP tumbles through 0.8550 as Euro sell-offs
2013-03-18 02:43 GMT | EUR/JPY, break of 122.00 exposes 121.10/20 - V.Bednarik
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29315 LOW 1.28818 BID 1.29038 ASK 1.29043 CHANGE -1.3% TIME 08:57:38
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market dropped on the news from Cyprus and determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. However break above the resistance at 1.2943 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.2971 (R1) en route towards to higher mark at 1.2999 (R3). Downwards scenario: The Asian session momentum on the downside suggests a possible move lower ahead. Key supportive bastion lie at 1.2881 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.2857 (S2) and 1.2832 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2943, 1.2971, 1.2999
Support Levels: 1.2881, 1.2857, 1.2832
--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51305 LOW 1.50717 BID 1.51041 ASK 1.51052 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08:57:39
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase. Fractals level at 1.5115 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 1.5135 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our short-term outlook would be negative. Any extension lower the 1.5082 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5061 (S2) and 1.5040 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5135, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5082, 1.5061, 1.5040
----------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 94.987 LOW 94.311 BID 94.464 ASK 94.467 CHANGE -0.83% TIME 08:57:40
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: USDJPY has gradually climbed eased during the Asian session, having made fresh low but lately lost momentum. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be found at 94.98 (R1). Appreciation above it would enable higher marks at 95.22 (R2) and 95.45 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook remains negative. If the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 94.31 (S1), it is likely to expose our next support level at 94.08 (S2) and 93.85 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 94.98, 95.22, 95.45
Support Levels: 94.31, 94.08, 93.85
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
USD/CHF WEEKLY as of Monday, 18 March, 2013
A Weekly black body has formed (because prices closed lower than they opened).
For the past 10 Weekly candlestick bars as of 15/03/2013, there are 6 white candles versus 4 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
For the past 50 Weekly candlestick bars as of 15/03/2013, there are 25 white candles versus 24 black candles with a net of 1 white candles.
A Weekly engulfing bearish line has formed (where a black candle's real body completely contains the previous white candle's real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with US Dollar / Swiss Franc). It signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle's real body.
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a possible point 4 of a WolfWave (21%) pattern for US Dollar / Swiss Franc. This pattern is an expanding triangle and trades from the next point. When the peak or trough will form, usually after crossing or touching the extended line of points 1 and 3, the price will move in the opposite direction towards the target line formed by the extension of points 2 and 4.
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 2
moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 1
normal amplitude (21%): bullish wave 1
US Dollar / Swiss Franc is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 0.95 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 52.38 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 54.15 in the neutral territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 0.01, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 88.36. This value is in the overbought territory.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 19 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 19 2013
Will Cyprus Bailout Set Tone for Trading this Week?
The sharp sell-off in currencies and European equities overnight indicate that investors are shocked by Cyprus' bailout news as they should be since this would be the first time in Eurozone history that depositors have taken a loss. The EUR/USD may have rebounded off its lows on speculation about a modified deal that is less aggressive but regardless of how much depositors above or below 100,000 euros are taxed, the mere possibility that they will be taxed at all undermines the credibility of the entire banking system. Optimists argue that this situation is unique to Cyprus but we don't know how reassuring a watered down deal will be as this could set a precedent for the entire region. We won't even go into how unfair it is that senior bondholders are being saved at the expense of moms and pops and that depositors with money under their mattresses are safer than depositors in the bank. What we do know is that the Cyprus bailout has set the tone for trading in an extremely data and event risk heavy week by reawakening the fear of contagion. The vote in parliament on the bailout deal has been postponed until Tuesday and this means that this risk off tone will remain prevalent for the immediate future.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United Kingdom. BOE Inflation Letter
2013-03-19 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-19 10:00 GMT | Germany. ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Mar)
2013-03-19 12:30 GMT | United States. Housing Starts (MoM) (Feb)
Forex News :
2013-03-19 05:30 GMT | GBP/USD going nowhere around 1.5100
2013-03-19 05:23 GMT | Euro buying interest fades ahead of 1.30
2013-03-19 03:41 GMT | AUD/USD reverses on Rio Tinto's comments
2013-03-19 02:31 GMT | USD/JPY breaks above 95.50
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29694 LOW 1.29339 BID 1.29358 ASK 1.29367 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 02:47
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Currently price is stabilized however on a slightly longer term market sentiment remains negative. Appreciation above the resistance level at 1.2969 (R1) might prolong corrective action towards to next targets at 1.2993 (R2) and 1.3016 (R3). Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created if EURUSD depreciates below the next support level at 1.2934 (S1). We would suggest next interim targets at 1.2912 (S2) and then aim at 1.2890 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2969, 1.2993, 1.3016
Support Levels: 1.2934, 1.2912, 1.2890
---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51128 LOW 1.5084 BID 1.50923 ASK 1.50937 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 02:48
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: So far Instrument traded in consolidative phase and being unable to made significant price deviation from its average price. Our resistive barrier at 1.5115 (R1) limits upside expansion. Break here is required to establish upwards formation targeting 1.5135 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure could find momentum below the support at 1.5082 (S1). Possible downtrend expansion would open road towards to next target at 1.5061 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 1.5040 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5135, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5082, 1.5061, 1.5040
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.746 LOW 95.123 BID 95.430 ASK 95.437 CHANGE 0.24% TIME 08 : 02:48
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument has bounced back and currently trades within the bullish pattern. If It manages to break above the next resistance level at 95.75 (R1), we expect to see appreciation towards to next targets at 95.94 (R2) and 96.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of further price depreciation is seen below the support at 95.38 (S1). Loss here might enable bearish pressure and drive market price towards to next target at 95.19 (S2) and potentially could even expose our final target at 94.99 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 95.75, 95.94, 96.13
Support Levels: 95.38, 95.19, 94.99
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Platforms | Forex Practice Account | FXCC )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 20 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 20 2013
Cypriot levy rejected, European leaders weigh in
Cyprus’s parliament rejected an unprecedented levy on bank deposits, rendering a blow to European plans of coercing depositors to shoulder part of the country’s rescue in a standoff that risks renewed tumult in the euro area. Cypriot legislators in Nicosia voted 36 against to none in favor of the proposal in a show of hands today along with 19 abstentions – hammered out by euro-area finance leaders over the weekend, the deal had sought to raise €5.8B by drawing funds from Cyprus bank accounts in return for €10.0B in international aid. Stocks dropped and the euro fell to a three-month low against the dollar at the prospect of impasse in Cyprus. European officials including Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem had said that Cyprus must contribute to its own bailout, while stressing that the Cypriot situation is unique. German coalition lawmakers said that Cyprus can expect no aid without meeting the terms.
“Cyprus has rebuffed the outstretched hand” of its partners, Hans Michelbach, a German lawmaker from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc and the ranking member on parliament’s finance committee, noted in a statement. The vote is “an act of collective unreason” and “the people of Cyprus must now pay a high price.”The ECB said it “takes note of the decision of the Cypriot Parliament and is in contact with its Troika partners” from the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, according to a statement. “The ECB reaffirms its commitment to provide liquidity as needed within the existing rules.”
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-20 07:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-20 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2013-03-20 18:00 GMT | United States. Fed Interest Rate Decision
2013-03-20 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)
Forex News :
2013-03-20 05:50 GMT | GBP/USD below 1.5100 ahead of a very very busy day
2013-03-20 04:40 GMT | AUD/USD back to session highs, still sideways
2013-03-20 02:39 GMT | Euro area faces new challenge on Cyprus drama - Nomura
2013-03-20 01:53 GMT | USD/JPY kept below 95.00, sellers dominant s/t
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.2879 LOW 1.28566 BID 1.28755 ASK 1.28762 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 07:31
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD discounted value determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. From the technical side, next resistance is seen at 1.2916 (R1). Only clearance here would allow further gains, targeting 1.2937 (R2) and 1.2959 (R3). Downwards scenario: Descending channel formation on the hourly chart frame is limited now to the session low - 1.2856 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2835 (S2) and 1.2813 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2916, 1.2937, 1.2959
Support Levels: 1.2856, 1.2835, 1.2813
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51065 LOW 1.50798 BID 1.50891 ASK 1.50902 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 07:32
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Neutral
TREND CONDITION Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY High
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is consolidating on the hourly chart however we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 1.5128 (R2) and 1.5149 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.5107 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.5072 (S1). Possible price regress could exposed our initial targets at 1.5053 (S2) and 1.5033 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.5107, 1.5128, 1.5149
Support Levels: 1.5072, 1.5053, 1.5033
---------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.202 LOW 94.829 BID 95.035 ASK 95.040 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 07:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument consolidates after the initial price cut yesterday though our medium-term outlook is positive. Our reference point for the upside penetration locates at 95.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable higher targets at 95.39 (R2) and 95.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is put to the immediate support level at 94.99 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 94.83 (S2) and 94.67 (S3
Resistance Levels: 95.22, 95.39, 95.55
Support Levels: 94.99, 94.83, 94.67
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading Accounts | ECN Broker List | Currency Converter | FXCC )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 21 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 21 2013
Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB+, outlook negative
Fitch Ratings decided to downgrade Italy's rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-', citing the inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections and deeper recession as the main reasons. Fitch also kept negative outlook on the country, meaning Italy could see another downgrade. "The inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections on 24-25 February make it unlikely that a stable new government can be formed in the next few weeks", said Fitch. "The increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession". Fitch also said that the ongoing recession in Italy is one of the deepest in Europe as confirmed by Q412 data.
Following what could be described as a 'remarkable' jobs number in the United States last Friday, with the jobless rate down to 7.7% and the economy creating 236K new jobs, highest since early 2012, the US Dollar continues to be one of the big winners in the currency market. Are the stars aligning for further Greenback strength? Before touching on the prospects for further USD appreciation, especially against the Euro, an interesting phenomenon not to ignore last Friday is the positive correlation between the US Dollar and the equity market, an occurrence which has seen commentators of the market busy speculating such behaviour as an early sign of improvement in market confidence.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-11 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Jan)
2013-03-11 09:00 GMT | Italy. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-11 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
2013-03-11 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Forex News :
2013-03-11 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, the 1.30 flirt goes on ...
2013-03-11 05:22 GMT | GBP/USD resting above 1.4900
2013-03-11 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY holding above 98 on the back of Yen weakness
2013-03-11 01:15 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged below 125.00
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3009 LOW 1.29792 BID 1.30027 ASK 1.30035 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08:04:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the EURUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3016 (R1). Retracement targets could be exposed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3054 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.2979 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.2960 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.2941 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3016, 1.3035, 1.3054
Support Levels: 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2941
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49273 LOW 1.49009 BID 1.49263 ASK 1.49274 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:04:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Breaching of resistance at 1.4958 (R1) is required to provide an evidence of corrective action. Possible targets could be exposed at 1.4990 (R2) and 1.5022 (R3) later on today in such scenario. Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important support level at 1.4899 (S1). Discounted value of GBPUSD might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 1.4866 (S2) en route to support at 1.4834 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.4958, 1.4990, 1.5022
Support Levels: 1.4899, 1.4866, 1.4834
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USDJPY :
HIGH 96.256 LOW 95.94 BID 96.125 ASK 96.131 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:04:56
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 96.30 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we would focus on the intraday targets at 96.68 (R2) and 97.07 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 95.49 (S1) might assist to recovery formation evolvement. We expect that our intraday target at 95.10 (S2) and 94.70 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case.
Resistance Levels: 96.30, 96.68, 97.07
Support Levels: 95.49, 95.10, 94.70
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 22 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 22 2013
Dimitriadis presents a resolution process to the Cypriot Parliament
The Cypriot Central Bank governor Panicós Dimitriadis has announced a bank restructuring plan that will allow banks to reopen on Tuesday. Dimitriadis said on Thursday that the bill would protect bank deposits up to €100K according to sources. Earlier, the Popular bank allowed costumers to withdrawal cash but limited by individual to 260 euros a day. Bloomberg has published that the bill has the approval of the Troika, however, the Eurogroup is weighing the close of the Cyprus Popular bank and the bank of Cyprus.
With European data disappointing and U.S. economic data surprising to the upside investors have returned to selling euros. Not only has tail risk in the Eurozone returned with the ECB threatening to pull support from Cyprus if an agreement is not reached by Monday but the outlook for growth has taken a turn for the worse, compounding the euro's problems. Eurozone manufacturing and service sector activity contracted at a faster pace in the month of March with the Eurozone PMI Composite index dropping to 46.5 from 47.9. While this is not the lowest reading that we have seen in the past 6 months, the cracks in Germany are reappearing. The Eurozone's largest economy is no longer able to provide umbrella support for the rest of the region and is now weakening alongside France, Italy and Spain. Tomorrow's German IFO report will most likely tell the same story of weakness in the Eurozone economy. The deteriorating growth outlook and risks posed by Cyprus and Italy (lets not forget about the unresolved elections) makes the euro less attractive than the dollar and should continue to add pressure on the currency.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-22 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. Cyprus Parliament Vote on Banking Restructuring, Wealth Fund Bill
2013-03-22 09:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate (Mar)
2013-03-22 09:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Expectations (Mar)
2013-03-22 14:00 GMT | Belgium. Leading Indicator (Mar)
Forex News :
2013-03-22 05:59 GMT | EUR/USD falls below 1.29, Cyprus fails to get Russian aid
2013-03-22 05:51 GMT | USD/JPY breaks down to yesterday's 94.50 lows
2013-03-22 05:43 GMT | Cyprus mission in Russia fails
2013-03-22 05:21 GMT | GBP/USD looking at 1.5200 asks
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29244 LOW 1.28882 BID 1.28994 ASK 1.28999 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 41:37
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.2925 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.2942 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 1.2960 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further devaluation is limited to the supportive barrier at 1.2879 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as new step of downtrend expansion, targeting 1.2861 (S2) and 1.2844 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2925, 1.2942, 1.2960
Support Levels: 1.2879, 1.2861, 1.2844
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51945 LOW 1.5165 BID 1.51878 ASK 1.51888 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 41:38
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: A bullish momentum might occur if the price manages to climb above the key resistance level at 1.5208 (R1). Next targets on the way could be exposed at 1.5234 (R2) and 1.5260 (R3). Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs development on the downside below the support level at 1.5156 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.5127 (S2) and 1.5100 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5208, 1.5234, 1.5260
Support Levels: 1.5156, 1.5127, 1.5100
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.132 LOW 94.545 BID 94.683 ASK 94.688 CHANGE -0.23% TIME 08 : 41:39
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the 95.14 (R1) resistance level. Violation here would suggest next intraday targets at 95.34 (R2) and 95.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the key support at 94.41 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our support barrier at 94.22 (S3) en route towards to final target for today at 94.02 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 95.14, 95.34, 95.55
Support Levels: 94.41, 94.22, 94.02
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Software | FXCC )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 25 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 25 2013
Eurogroup reaches agreement with Cypriot authorities
Already finished Eurogroup and FMI press conference, attending IMF chief Christine Lagarde, Eurogroup Chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem, EU's commissioner for economic affairs Olli Rehn, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Jorg Asmussen, and ESM managing director Klaus Regling, the Eurogroup has reached an agreement with the Cypriot authorities “on the key elements necessary for a future macroeconomic adjustment programme,” the official Eurogroup statement reads. The agreement comes from all sides of the table, including all Euro area members states, along with the ECB, the IMF, and the ESM, also known as Troika. No further Cyprus parliament voting will be needed as the levy part of the deal has been “avoided”, EU chairman said, remarking “should be no doubts about that,” referring to any kind of discount on deposits below insured € 100k accounts.
Main focus on the deal has been reduced to the banking sector, also explained Mr Dijsselbloem, where "solution focuses on troubled banks," and the insured deposits. Among other measures, solution passes through a “split in a good and a bad bank”, said EU's chairman, with the “bad” one “gone” in some uncertain future time. Laiki Bank, the “bad” bank, “will ultimately disappear," said IMF's Lagarde. Bank of Cyprus would be the “good” one, where under € 100k secured deposits would be transferred. Asked if there is any chance the “bad bank” survives, Dijsselbloem said there could be a small part left, but that only time could tell. For the amount of haircuts in unsecured deposits, no concrete answers were also given, saying "numbers will have to be calculated," noted Dijsselbloem, adding: "can't put a number on that yet." Olli Rehn also referred to upcoming EU memorandum by mid April as a source for further answers. When questioned if all this agreement was mainly just to “buy some time,” EU commissioner denied it.-FXstreet.com
Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United States. Fed's William Dudley speech
2013-03-25 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Feb)
2013-03-25 17:15 GMT | United States. Fed's Bernanke Speech
2013-03-25 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Trade Balance (YoY) (Feb)
Forex News :
2013-03-25 06:24 GMT | EUR/USD still bearish despite the good news - UBS
2013-03-25 04:01 GMT | Eurogroup reaches agreement with Cypriot authorities
2013-03-25 01:42 GMT | EUR/JPY soars on Cyprus tentative deal
2013-03-25 01:13 GMT | AUD/USD holds below 1.0460
--------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30482 LOW 1.29414 BID 1.30342 ASK 1.30348 CHANGE 0.34% TIME 08:35:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: The pair accelerates on the upside and determined positive market sentiment. If it manages to climb above the resistance level at 1.3049 (R1) there is a chance for a move towards to next targets at 1.3065 (R2) and 1.3081 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, pair looks overbought and possibility of correction is high. Next on tap is seen support level at 1.3010 (S1). Below here locates initial targets at 1.2993 (S2) and 1.2975 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3049, 1.3065, 1.3081
Support Levels: 1.3010, 1.2993, 1.2975
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52598 LOW 1.52233 BID 1.52434 ASK 1.52445 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08:35:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Our technical outlook for the medium-term perspective remains bullish oriented. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.5260 (R1) would enable bullish pressure and might expose our next targets at 1.5291 (R2) and 1.5322 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.5208 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5177 (S2) and 1.5144 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5260, 1.5291, 1.5322
Support Levels: 1.5208, 1.5177, 1.5144
------------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 94.962 LOW 94.354 BID 94.657 ASK 94.664 CHANGE 0.21% TIME 08:35:14
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Market tested positive side today and formed gradual ascending move. Next resistance in focus stays at 94.97 (R1). If the break occur here we might see stronger move, targeting next attractive points at 95.20 (R2) and 95.43 (R3). Downwards scenario: Progress below the initial support level at 94.48 (S1) might trigger protective orders and stopped current consolidation development. Our intraday targets are seen at 94.25 (S2) and 94.01 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 94.97, 95.20, 95.43
Support Levels: 94.48, 94.25, 94.01
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Software | Free Forex Demo Account | Best Forex Broker | FXCC )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 26 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 26 2013
Cypriot central bank to meet tonight on capital controls
In an effort to avoid the money's outflow, the Cypriot central bank will meet tonight in an extraordinary session to introduce capital restrictions according to the Cyprus' president Anastasiades. The president also said, in a recent speech, the capital controls will be a temporary measure but difficult measures will be implemented in the following days. Meanwhile, Cypriot banks will open on Tuesday except Bank of Cyprus and Laiki. Earlier on the day, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, affirmed that the Cypriot plan would be used as template for another countries in the eurozone. Investors were afraid for more levys and capital restrictions across the union. Renewed jitters on Cyprus and fears of contagion to other indebted sovereigns in the bloc periphery have been weighting on EUR after the increased vulnerability seen in Cypriot deposits.
And speaking of anti-climaxes, Cyprus appears to have reached an agreement to avoid bankruptcy but, whilst it protects savers with less than €100,000 on account in Cypriot banks, bond holders in Laiki Bank will lose their funds and depositors with more than €100,000 in Laiki will lose a substantial part of those funds. The accounts will be frozen while the bank is closed down and most of its debt transferred to Bank of Cyprus and that could result in larger investors losing up to 90% of their funds. That isn’t going to make Cyprus popular with their Russian and Eastern European tax avoiders and it won’t make Europe popular with Russia either. That’s could be a problem because Russia controls a massive amount of the energy used by Europe. If Cyprus and the EU wanted to make enemies, other than invading Russia, they couldn’t have hatched a better plan.
FXCC Forex Trading Blog
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-03-26 07:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)
2013-03-26 12:30 GMT | United States. Durable Goods Orders (Feb)
2013-03-26 14:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Confidence (Mar)
2013-03-26 14:00 GMT | United States. New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-03-26 05:51 GMT | AUD/USD unchanged as RBS Stevens speech a non event
2013-03-26 05:19 GMT | EUR/USD down to 1.2660 now and option
2013-03-26 01:41 GMT | USD/JPY higher on Kuroda's promises; Again
2013-03-26 01:32 GMT | GBP/JPY recovers ground as Kuroda speaks
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
-------------------------------------
Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD
Upwards scenario: EUR extended its decline versus the USD and determined negative medium-term technical outlook. However above the resistance at 1.2894 (R1) opens a route towards to next resistive measures at 1.2919 (R2) and 1.2945 (R3) Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.2829 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 1.2806 (S2) and 1.2784 (S3) as possible intraday targets.
Resistance Levels: 1.2894, 1.2919, 1.2945
Support Levels: 1.2829, 1.2806, 1.278
----------------------------------------
Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD
Upwards scenario: Instrument formed fresh low yesterday however retail trades sentiment shifted to the bullish side on the short-term perspective. Further market rise is limited now to the key barrier at 1.5208 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 1.5234 (R2) and last one at 1.5261 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish further gains might lead to the price depreciation. Next immediate support could be found at 1.5142 (S1). Break here is required to open route towards to our targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5093 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5208, 1.5234, 1.5261
Support Levels: 1.5142, 1.5118, 1.5093
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Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY
Upwards scenario: Medium- term tendency remains bearish as both moving averages are pointing down. Though risk of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 94.45 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 94.67 (R2) and 94.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market decline is seen below the key support level at 93.86 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 93.64 (S2) and 93.43 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 94.45, 94.67, 94.90
Support Levels: 93.86, 93.64, 93.43
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 27 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 27 2013
European Parliament considers bailing-in large depositors
The euro dropped in the European afternoon on information from Reuters that the European Parliament would be inclined to bail-in big savers, who hold deposits of over 100,000 euros at distressed banks. MEP Gunnar Hokmark, who is taking part in creating a new law aimed at dealing with such banks told Reuters that: "Deposits below 100,000 euros are protected … deposits above 100,000 euros are not protected and shall be treated as part of the capital that can be bailed in." Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s comments on Monday, suggesting that the bailout deal struck between Cyprus and the Troika might be a model for rescue programs for other EU countries in the future, caused the European stock markets to drop sharply in late trading.
Wall Street rises despite bad US data and Cyprus. The US stocks market traded higher on Tuesday as market didn't pay much attention to the lower-than-expected US consumer confidence but better-than-expected home prices. The Dow surged to new all-time high. The Dow Jones advaced 111.90 points or 0.77% to close at 14,559.65. The S&P 500 added 12.08 points or 0.78% to end the day at 1,563.77. And the Nasdaq Composite gained 17.18 points or 0.53% to finish at 3,252.48.-Fxstreet.com
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-03-27 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-27 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Confidence (Mar)
2013-03-27 12:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index
2013-03-27 14:00 GMT | United States. Pending Home Sales (YoY)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-03-27 07:24 GMT | EUR/USD muted after German data
2013-03-27 06:25 GMT | Time to build a short position in JPY again – RBS
2013-03-27 04:28 GMT | USD/JPY climbs above 94.80 helped by USD buying across the board
2013-03-27 03:27 GMT | NZD/USD, exporters keen buyers of NZD dips – BNZ
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains in play on the hourly chart. Our next resistance level is placed above the local peak at 1.2868 (R1). Strengthening above it would point to resistive structure at 1.2890 (R2) onto 1.2912 (R3). Downwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing down, medium-term technical outlook would be negative. Key support level lie at 1.2837 (S1), below here opens a route towards to our initial targets at 1.2815 (S2) and 1.2793 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2868, 1.2890, 1.2912
Support Levels: 1.2837, 1.2815, 1.2793
Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSDUpwards scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.5170 (R1), subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.5190 (R2) and 1.5210 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: If the price failed to establish further positive bias today, we expect to see retest of our key support level at 1.5147 (S1). Break here is required to enable initial targets at 1.5128 (S2) and 1.5 109 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.5170, 1.5190, 1.5210
Support Levels: 1.5147, 1.5128, 1.5109
Upwards scenario: Next hurdle on the upside is seen at important technical level – 94.90 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to our initial targets at 95.08 (R2) and 95.25 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument might retest our next support level at 94.58 (S1) later on today. Market decline below it would create bearish sentiment and enable our interim target at 94.40 (S2). Final support for today locates at 94.22 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 94.90, 95.08, 95.25
Support Levels: …..
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | ECN Broker | Forex Trading Account | FXCC )