BinaryOptionStrategy Analysis - page 15
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Binary Options Daily Analysis – Stocks Tumble on ECB Disappointment
To read the Weekly technical report click here
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Asian markets slid on Thursday as anxiety grew ahead of Friday’s European Summit. The Nikkei dropped .7% to 8645, pulling back from a 1-month high. The Kospi slipped .4% after the Bank of Korea held interest rates at 3.25%, and Australia’s ASX 200 declined .3%. China’s Shanghai Composite largely recovered from an earlier drop, closing down .1%, and the Hang Seng shed .7%.
European markets tumbled after ECB President Mario Draghi said the region’s economy faced significant risks, while offering no new bond purchase plan. The central bank cut interest rates to 1% from 1.25%. The CAC40 dropped 2.5%, the DAX lost 2%, and the FTSE fell 1.1%, with financials leading the declines. The European Banking Index closed down 3.1%.
US stocks posted similar losses. The Dow fell 199 points to 11998, the S&P 500 skidded 2.1%, and the Nasdaq lost 2%. Selling accelerated in the last few minutes of the day after Germany rejected a draft proposal for the EU summit, casting doubts on the outcome of Friday’s meeting. The ongoing debate over whether to introduce stiffer budgetary requirements, or strengthen the bailout mechanisms, does not appear close to resolution.
S&P 500 Falls 2.1%
Despite earnings reports which exceeded estimates, Costco fell 2% and Smithfield Foods dropped 3.7%.
Tesla shares plunged 9.7% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock.
Treasuries and Commodities
Bonds gained, encouraged by a drop in equities. 10-year notes gained 18/32 to yield 1.97%, and 30-year notes rallied 1 14/32 to yield 2.99%.
Crude oil tumbled 1.9% to 98.58, crossing back below the $100 mark. Gasoline futures fell .5% to 2.574, while natural gas rose .8% to 3.449 after a government report showed natural gas storage dropped significantly more than forecast.
Metals traded lower, once again led by silver, which slumped 2.6% to 31.78. Gold dropped 1.7% to 1714.60, and copper lost 1.3% to 3.511.
Currencies
The currency markets shunned risk on Thursday, pressuring the Australian and Canadian Dollar. The Australian Dollar fell 1.2% to 1.0168, and the Canadian Dollar dropped 1.3% to 1.0218. The Pound and Euro both lost .5% to 1.3348 and 1.5638 respectively, while the Yen closed flat at 77.67.
Economic Outlook
Weekly jobless claims were far better than expected, dropping by 23K to 381K. Wholesale inventories rose by 1.6%, more than forecast, posting their biggest gain in 5 months.
Friday’s economic reports will include international trade and consumer sentiment.
The EU Summit will begin on Friday. Hopes for a quick resolution to the European debt crisis appear to be dashed, as the political disputes continue, but any progress could have a significant impact on the markets.
Earnings are due from Comverse Technologies.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Binary Options Report (Dec. 5- Dec. 9)
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Markets
US Markets closed near their highs Friday. They ended up climbing steadily throughout the day. They were bolstered by a strong consumer sentiment report and as investors appeared to show relief after the Euro zone’s latest plan to solve its debt crisis.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 186.56 points, or 1.55 percent, to finish at 12,184.26. The S&P 500 rose 20.84 points, or 1.69 percent, to close at 1,255.19. The Nasdaq jumped 50.47 points, or 1.94 percent, to end at 2646.85.
DJIA CHART
FOREX
Last week, trade was choppy. This came as the major currencies set their bottoms in the Asian session while rising to highs in the European session. As they Headed into the North American trading, the majors were positioned closer to their range bottoms. This came as the results from this week’s Euro zone summit began to trickle out of Brussels and into the markets.
At a first look, the results of the Euro zone summit are both encouraging s well as disappointing. Positive, leaders of all 17 Euro zone countries plus 9 non Euro-zone nations agreed to terms that allow strict caps on government spending and borrowing. Britain is the only country not to agree to the terms. The Czech Republic, Hungary and Sweden, while initially holding out on the agreement, later agreed to changes on the condition that certain details of the pact need to be reviewed by their leaders and by their national parliaments.
Britain’s veto, given the way current treaties are structured, is enough to prevent changes to European Union treaties, as a unanimous vote is required among the 27 European Union nations. British Prime Minister David Cameron was pushing for protections for London from future financial regulations. As such, the veto may limit the impact the new agreements have.
EURUSD Chart
COMMODITIES
Oil prices rose for the first time in three days. This comes as as the European Union moved closer to a plan that promises to fix the Euro zone debt crisis.
Crude rose $1.07 Friday to end the week at $99.41. Brent crude, which is used to price foreign oil imported by some US refineries, added 53 cents to finish at $108.47 in London.
Oil Chart
EQUTIES
GE gained after the conglomerate boosted its quarterly dividend to 17 cents from 15 cents. Texas Instruments fell after the chipmaker cut its outlook for the current quarter and warned demand declined as clients reduce their inventories. Apple appealed a US judge’s decision not to block Samsung Electronics from selling Galaxy smartphones and tablets in the US market.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by David Frank
Fundamental Analysis and the Week Ahead
To read the Weekly technical report click here
ECONOMIC NEWS
US consumer sentiment climbed to 67.7. This number gaining for the fourth consecutive month. Economists expected a reading of 65.5.
Also,US trade deficit narrowed in October to $43.5 billion. It is at its lowest in 10 months. The result was in line with estimates. However, September trade deficit was revised to $44.2 billion from $43.1 billion.
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY: 3-yr note auction, Treasury budget, FedEx’s busiest shipping day, Google’s Schmidt speaks in DC
TUESDAY: NFIB small biz optimism index, retail sales, business inventories, 10-yr note auction, FOMC mtg announcement, GE annual outlook meeting
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications, import & export prices, oil inventories, 30-yr bond auction, OPEC meeting
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, PPI, Empire state mft survey, current account, Treasury international capital, industrial production, Philadelphia Fed survey, credit card default rates reported
FRIDAY: CPI, quadruple witching
Binary Options Trading analysis written by David Frank
Binary Options Daily Analysis – Western Markets Rally on Euro Summit Deal
To read the Weekly technical report click here
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Asian markets slumped on Friday as investors grew increasingly nervous over the European Summit. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng led the declines, tumbling 2.7% to 18586. Japan’s Nikkei sank 1.5% to 8536, the ASX 200 lost 1.8%, and the Kospi fell 2%. In China, stocks fell .6%, despite a report which showed a inflation dropped to 4.2%.
European leaders agreed to work towards leaner budgets, but failed to announce any new aid measures. Nonetheless, stocks rallied, led by the banks, which rose 2.6%. The CAC40 climbed 2.5%, the DAX jumped 1.9%, and the FTSE rose .8%.
DAX Rallies 1.9% on Treaty Deal
US markets followed their European counterparts higher. The Dow advanced 187 points to 12184, the Nasdaq rallied 1.9%, and the S&P 500 gained 1.7% to 1255. The VIX tumbled 13.3% to 26.53.
GE shares closed up 3.3% after raising its quarterly dividend to 17 cents, from 15 cents a share.
Treasuries and Commodities
Bond prices tumbled as investors became increasingly optimistic about the European debt crisis. 30-year notes fell 1 20/32 to yield 3.11%, and yields on 10-year notes rose to 2.06%.
Crude oil fell 1.3% to 99.83. Gold rose $3 to 1712.80, and silver gained 71 cents 32.173.
Currencies
The US Dollar traded mostly lower after the European Summit. The Euro rose 30 pips to 1.3370, the Pound rose 20 pips to 1.5662, and the Swiss Franc edged up 30 pips to 1.0821. The Australian Dollar gained .5% to 1.0221, and the Canadian Dollar ticked up .3% to 1.0193.
Economic Outlook
Consumer sentiment rose more than expected, climbing to 67.7, from last month’s 64.1 reading. The trade deficit fell to $43.5 billion, in line with forecasts.
No major economic reports are due on Monday.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Binary Options Daily Analysis – Western Markets Tumble as Reality Sets In
To read the Weekly technical report click here
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Friday’s Western relief rally lifted Asian markets on Monday, following an agreement for stricter budgets amongst euro zone countries. The Nikkei advanced 1.4% to 8654, the Kospi climbed 1.3%, and the ASX 200 rose 1.2%. China’s Shanghai Composite bucked the uptrend, sliding 1%, and the Hang Seng closed down fractionally.
Friday’s gains were short-lived for European stocks, as a steep selloff hit the continent. Germany’s DAX tumbled 3.4% to 5785, the CAC40 dropped 2.6%, and the FTSE fell 1.8%. Despite Friday’s summit treaty, little progress has been made in improving the European debt crisis.
Germany's DAX Slumps 3.4%
US markets dropped as well, but ended well off their lows. The Dow dropped 163 points to 12021, the Nasdaq declined 1.3%, and the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%. Banking shares were hit hardest, as Citigroup plunged 5.4% and Bank of America dropped 4.7%.
Intel shares tumbled 4% after cutting its profit outlook, weighing on semiconductor shares.
Treasuries and Commodities
Bond prices rose, propelled by the drop in equities. 10-year notes edged up 11/32 to yield 2.02%, and 30-year notes gained 1 full point to yield 3.06%.
Crude oil fell 1.3% to 98.08, and natural gas dropped 1.9% to 3.254 in a broad commodity slide.
Metals posted outsized losses, as gold tumbled 2.8% to 1668.90, silver fell 2.9% to 31.31, and copper dropped 2.8% to 3.457.
Currencies
The Dollar surged as investors flocked to safety. The Euro and Swiss Franc both tumbled 1.5% to 1.3186 and 1.0672 respectively. The Australian Dollar shed 1.4% to 1.0078, and the Canadian Dollar lost 1% to 1.0258. The Yen fared better than its pears, easing .3% to 77.90.
Economic Outlook
The Fed will issue its rate statement on Tuesday, and is not expected to lift rates from .25%. Also due are retail sales, business inventories, and the TIPP economic optimism report.
Earnings are scheduled for Best Buy and Perfumania.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Binary Options Daily Analysis – Retail Stocks Drop on Weak Data
To read the Weekly technical report click here
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Asian markets traded lower as disappointment over Friday’s European Summit set in. The Nukkei dropped 1.2% to 8553, the Kospi slumped 1.9%, and the ASX 200 declined by 1.6%. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.9% to 2249, its lowest level since March 2009, and the Hang Seng eased .7%.
European markets closed mixed following Monday’s slide. The CAC40 fell .4%, and the DAX slipped .2%, while the FTSE rallied 1.2%, lifted by the energy sector. Investors digested news that German chancellor, Angela Merkel, opposes an increase in Europe’s bailout fund.
US stocks dropped in the late afternoon, following the Fed’s statement, which failed to entice investors. The Dow closed down 66 points to 11955, the S&P 500 dropped .9%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.3%
Best Buy shares tumbled 15.5% after reporting earnings which were well below estimates. Disappointing retail sales data hit sent the retail sector down 3%, with Amazon shares shedding 4.8%.
Nasdaq Loses 1.3% in Afternoon Selloff
Treasuries and Commodities
US bonds rose for a second day, with 10-year notes up 13/32 to yield 1.97%, and 30-year notes up 29/32 to yield 3.00%. In contrast, UK bonds fell, with 10 year notes losing .23 to yield 2.13%, and 30-year notes dropping .96 to yield 3.2%.
The energy sector advanced, as oil and gasoline both rallied 1.8% to 99.52 and 2.6107 respectively.
Metals however, tumbled, as gold plunged 2.3% to 1629.10, copper declined 2.1%, and silver lost 1.4%.
Currencies
The Euro extended its losses from Monday, dropping 1.1% to 1.3031. The Pound and Canadian Dollar both lost .7%, and the Australian Dollar fell .5% to 1.0005. The Yen settled at 77.99, down fractionally, and the Swiss Franc slumped .8% to 1.0571.
Economic Outlook
Tuesday’s economic data was disappointing. Retails sales rose by.2% in November, significantly less than the .6% forecast. Business inventories rose by .8%, slightly more than expected.
Wednesday’s reports will include import prices, weekly oil inventories, and weekly mortgage applications.
No major earnings reports are due.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Binary Options Daily Analysis – Commodities Tumble amid Growth Fears
To read the Weekly technical report click here
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Asian markets closed moderately lower, following Tuesday’s losses on Wall Street. The Nikkei closed down .4% to 8519, the Kospi slipped .3%, and the ASX 200 eased .1%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell another..9%, and the Hang Seng shed .5%, extending its losing streak to 5 days.
European markets tumbled as rumors circulated that France’s credit rating might get slashed. France’s CAC40 slumped 3.4%, the FTSE dropped 2.3%, and the DAX lost 1.7%. The automobile sector plunged 4.2%, amid doubts over the region’s growth.
US markets ended lower, with the Nasdaq once again leading the losses. The Nasdaq fell 1.6%, the Dow declined 131 points, and the S&P 500 lost 1.1%.
Joy Global reported disappointing earnings, sending the shares down 10.8%.
Treasuries and Commodities
US bonds continued to rally, as global investors sought safety. 10-year notes climbed 20/32 to yield 1.90%, and 30-year notes surged 2 10/32 to yield 2.90%.
Commodities tumbled across the board. In energy, crude oil dropped 5.1% to 95.04, and gasoline lost 4.6% to 2.504.
Gold plunged 5.6% to 1569.50, closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time in nearly 3 years. Silver tumbled 7.9% to 28.80, and copper declined 4.8%.
Gold Continues to Fall, Dropping 5.6% on Wednesday
Currencies
The US Dollar extended its recent gains on Wednesday, as the Euro fell 1.4% to 1.2982, hitting a 52-week low of 1.2950. The Australian Dollar dropped 1.5% to .9910, and the Swiss Franc lost 1.5%, dropping to 1.0495. The Canadian Dollar lost 1.1% to 1.0396, and the Pound shed .7% to 1.5489.
Economic Outlook
Import prices rose by .7%, the biggest jump in 7 months, but were still less than the 1% expected. Mortgage applications rose by 4%, as a recovering economy, coupled with low interest rates encourages mortgage activity.
Thursday’s economic data will include weekly unemployment claims, PPI, and the Empire State manufacturing index.
Earnings are due from Pier 1, Research in Motion, and Rite Aid.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Binary Options Daily Analysis – Weekly Jobless Claims Drop to 3.5 Year Low
To read the Weekly technical report click here
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Asian markets fell on Thursday, as fear over Europe’s debt crisis intensified. In Japan, the Nikkei fell 1.7% to 8377. Scandal-hit Olympus shares tumbled more than 20% after restating earnings, as the company revealed a $1.1 billion loss. Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.1%, and the ASX 200 fell 1.2%. PMI data for China showed a slowdown in factory activity, sending the Shanghai Composite down 2.1% to 2181, and the Hang Seng down 1.8%.
European markets bounced moderately, lifted by upbeat US data. The DAX climbed 1%, the CAC40 gained .8%, and the FTSE rose .6%. The European insurance index rallied 2.3% on news that Old Mutual was selling part of its business for $3.2 billion. Fitch cut the debt rating on Credit Agricole, sending the bank’s shares down 4.4%.
US stocks opened sharply higher, but surrendered most of their gains as the day dragged on. The Dow rose 45 points to 11869, the S&P 500 edged up .3%, and the Nasdaq ended up fractionally.
Dow Gains but Closes well off Lows
Fedex shares surged 8% after reporting earnings which were stronger than expected.
Treasuries and Commodities
US bonds eased slightly, with 10-year notes down 1/32 to yield 1.91%, and 30-year notes down 8/32 to yield 2.92%.
Energy fell, led by crude oil which dropped 1.4% to 93.66. Gasoline fell .5% to 2.4904, and natural gas slipped .2% to 3.13.
Gold fell another 18.40 to 1568.50, and copper lost .6% 3.2595. Silver recovered slightly from Wednesdays tumble, edging up .3% to 29.03.
Currencies
The Swiss Franc surged 1.3% to 1.0634, while the Dollar eased modestly against other currencies. The Euro rose .2% to 1.3014, the Pound gained .3% to 1.5510, and the Canadian Dollar advanced .4% to 1.0354.
Economic Outlook
Weekly jobless claims fell to 366K, far better than the 389K forecast, its lowest level in years. The Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 9.5, showing a sharp rise in factory activity.
Friday’s sole report will be CPI, which is expected to show a .1% rise.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Binary Options Report (Dec. 12- Dec. 16)
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Markets
Wall Street staggered along to the closing bell Friday. They ended up closing out a rough week with modest gains in technology and little movement in the Dow.
Traders had to contend with yet another ratings agency warning on debt, while the quadruple witching scenario, in which four key options and futures contract expire, brought more volume to the market but little in the way of gains.
The Dow closed done 2.42 at 11866.39, the NASDAQ was up 14.32 at 2555.33 and the S&P 500 rose 3.91 to close at 1219.66 forthe week.
DJIA CHART
FOREX
Sharp Euro declines left it below the psychologically important $1.30 mark for the first time since January. This is leaving momentum sharply to the downside ahead of the final two weeks of 2011. Traders showed little hesitation in selling the EURUSD. We see relatively limited scope for continued volatility into the final weeks of the year, but anything can happen on headline driven price swings.
The final two weeks of the year are unlikely to see any major price breakouts, and indeed the EURUSD could very well consolidate until the New Year. The Forex Options market volatility expectations have fallen into Friday’s close with 1 week currency options now at the smallest currency ranges since the summer. Second tier economic data could perhaps force modest reactions on any surprises. It is not likely to be a week of sharp breakouts or pronounced currency trends.
EURUSD Chart
COMMODITIES
Crude fell 34 cents to end at $93.53 in New York. The market fell as low as $92.52 earlier in the day.
Brent crude, which is used to price foreign oil that’s imported by many US refineries, fell 25 cents to finish at $103.35 a barrel in London.
Goldwas up $19.80 to $1,597 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The yellow metal traded as high as $1,603.50 and as low as $1,572.10.
Gold Chart
EQUTIES
Ista Pharamceuticals jumped on a takeover offer of about $6.50 a share from Valeant Pharmaceuticals, a bid that Ista said “significantly undervalues” the company.RSC Holdings surged after rival United Rentals made a $1.9 billion offer for the company. Cameron International said BP had agreed to indemnify the company for current and future compensatory claims associated with the Deepwater Horizon incident.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by David Frank
Fundamental Analysis and the Week Ahead
To read the Weekly technical report click here
ECONOMIC NEWS
Credit rating agency Fitch told the Euro zone it thinks a comprehensive solution to the bloc’s debt crisis is beyond reach, as it put an number of the zone’s economies including France and Italy on watch for potential downgrades.
However, Fitch did reaffirm France’s top-notch triple-A rating but even here said the outlook was now negative over a longer term.
US consumer prices were flat in November as Americans paid less for cars and gasoline. This could be a further sign of a cooldown in inflation that could give the Federal Reserve more room to help a still weak economy. The Consumer Price Index was unchanged last month. Economists had expected an increase of 0.1 percent.
Prices rose 3.4 percent in the 12 months through November. That is off from the 3-year high of 3.9 percent clocked in September, and Friday’s report backs the view that the spike in inflation is ebbing. However, some of the data in the report could give pause to policymakers still worried about inflation. Outside food and energy, prices climbed 0.2 percent. These so called core prices rose 2.2 percent in the 12 months through November, up from 2.1 percent in October.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Dec 19: NAHB Housing Market Index
Dec 20: Housing Starts Nov, Building Permits
Dec 21: MBA Mortgage Index, Existing Home Sales, Crude Inventories
Dec 22: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, GDP – Third Estimate. GDP Deflator – Third Estimate, Michigan Sentiment – Final, Leading Indicators, FHFA Housing Price Index
Dec 23: Durable Orders. Durable Goods Orders -ex Transportation, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Prices – Core, New Home Sales
Binary Options Trading analysis written by David Frank