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Daily Analysis – Nikkei Drops to 2 1/2 Year Low
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To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Asian markets ended mixed following Wednesday’s sharp slide on Wall Street. The Nikkei returned from a holiday, dropping 1.8% to 8165, its lowest close since early 2009. Korea’s Kospi gained .7%, shaking off opening weakness, while the ASX 200 eased .2%. The Hang Seng rose .4% and the Shanghai Composite inched up .1% amid rumors of monetary easing in China.
Nikkei Falls Below March's Quake Low
In Europe, the major indexes closed lower, surrendering early gains. The DAX fell .5%, the FTSE slipped .2%, and the CAC40 ended flat, following remarks by German Chancellor Merkel which reiterated her opposition to changes in the ECB.
US stock and bonds markets were closed for Thanksgiving.
Treasuries and Commodities
German bond price continued to fall on Thursday, with 10-year notes down .415 to yield 2.19%, and 30-year notes down 1.19 to yield 2.8%.
Crude oil rose .86 to 97.03 in light trading, while natural gas slipped .5%.
Gold closed flat at 1695.50, while silver edged lower .1% to 31.845.
Currencies
The currency market experience very narrow trading ranges thanks to the closure of US banks. The Euro, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar all ended within a few pips of their opening prices. The Pound slipped .2% to 1.5494, while the Australian Dollar gained .4% to .9726.
Economic Outlook
US markets close early on Friday, and volume is expected to be light.
No major reports are due on Friday.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Fundamental Analysis and the Week Ahead
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Markets
Stocks closed in negative territory in thin trading Friday as investors were reluctant to go long ahead of the weekend. This comes amid ongoing worries over the euro zone. The Dow and S&P posted their worst Thanksgiving week since the Great Depression on a percentage basis. The Dow Jones erased gains to finish lower. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also ended lower. Both logging a seventh consecutive decline. Some traders are watching for 1,150 on the S&P as the next key level.
DJIA CHART
FOREX
The US Dollar rose to multi-month highs amidst sharp losses in the Dow Jonesand S&P500. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index easily broke the pshych resistance at 10,000 and currently boasts its strongest 20-day appreciation since the height of the financial crisis in 2008. Momentum clearly favors the topside, but traders should be careful of sharp corrections ahead of a critical week for the US Dollar and broader financial markets.
US Nonfarm Payrolls data headlines foreseeable event risk for the world’s largest economy. Traders should be equally mindful of any surprises out of a European finance ministers meeting on Wednesday. Euro Zone tensions hit fever pitch this week as a failed German bond auction caused sell-offs in Spanish and Italian bonds. Italy paid a huge 7.81 percent for 2 year bonds in its most recent auction. This is up substantially from the 4.63 percent frolast month. Standard and Poor’s also aggrevated the Euro Zone’s wounds as it downgraded Belgium’s sovereign credit rating for the first time since 1997. The doom and gloom in Europe was enough to push the US Dollar to significant highs.
EURUSD Chart
COMMODITIES
US crude futures fell on Friday and were on pace to post a loss for the week as concerns about Europe’s debt crisis strengthened the dollar and kept ita focus fears that an economic slowdown will curb oil demand. The price of ICE Brent oil, the global benchmark, rose 62 cents to $107.64 in thin trading conditions as US traders were away for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Oil Chart
EQUTIES
Macy’s, Best Buy, Wal-Mart among other retail giants will be in focus this week as the winter shopping season opens up. AT&T said it would take a $4 billion charge in case its takeover of T-Mobile USA fails.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by David Frank
Fundamental Analysis and the Week Ahead
To read the Weekly technical report click here
ECONOMIC NEWS
In Europe, S&P downgraded Belgium one notch to AA from AA-plus, further heightening worries over the Euro zone debt problems.
Earlier, EU officials said Euro zone member states were discussing dropping private sector involvement from the permanent bailout mechanism.
An Italian T-bill auction offered a fresh indication of investors’ lack of confidence in the country’s newly appointed government and broad fears that the Euro zone debt crisis cannot be contained. Yields rose to new Euro era highs.
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY: New home sales, Dallas Fed mfg survey
TUESDAY: S&P Case-Shiller home price index, consumer confidence, FHFA home price index, Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks, Fed’s Yellen speaks;
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications, Challenger job-cut report, ADP employment report, productivity & costs, Chicago PMI, pending home sales index, oil inventories, Beige Book, farm prices, AT&T/TMobile hearing, USDA’s agricultural trade outlook
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, ISM mfg index, construction spending, chain store sales, auto sales
FRIDAY: Employment situation, Fed’s Plosser speak
Binary Options Trading analysis written by David Frank
Binary Options News – European Equities Rally Despite Soaring Yields
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To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Stocks closed lower in Asia, as a deadlock in Euro zone negotiations raised investor fear. The Nikkei eased .1% to 8160, the Kospi slumped 1%, and the ASX 200 dropped 1.5%. Hong Kong’s, Hang Seng, declined 1.4%, weighed down by HSBC’s 1.7% loss, and the Shanghai Composite shed .7%.
European markets rallied, as the DAX and CAC40 gained 1.2%, and the FTSE rose .7%. Nonetheless, the DAX fell 5% for the week, and the CAC40 shed 4.5%. S&P downgraded Belgium’s debt one notch to AA. An auction for 6-month debt in Italy had an astonishing yield of 6.5%, up from 3.5% last month.
DAX Bounces Feebly Following Recent Slide
US markets closed lower on light volume. The Dow eased 26 points to 11232, the Nasdaq slumped .8%, and the S&P 500 fell .3%.
Treasuries and Commodities
US treasuries fell, with 10-year notes down 23/32 to yield 1.96%, and 30-year notes down 1 24/32 to yield 2.92%.
Oil settled at 96.77, down .26 from Thursday’s close. Natural gas rallied 2.4% to 3.542, while gasoline skidded 2.7$ to 2.4489.
Metals traded lower, led by silver, which slumped 2.7% to 31.014. Gold fell $10.20 to 1685.70 and copper declined .3% to 3.27.
Currencies
The Dollar climbed against most currencies, as growing uncertainty fueled a return to safety. The Euro dropped .9% to 1.3230, and the Yen sank .8% to 77.75. Rumors that the Swiss National Bank would raise the exchange floor for the EURCHF hurt the Swiss Franc, which closed down 1.1% to 1.0750. The British Pound slipped .3% and the Australian Dollar edged down .2% to .9714.
Economic Outlook
Monday’s reports will include new home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey.
No major earnings reports are scheduled for Monday.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
daily analysis - 29/11/2011
To read the Weekly technical report click here
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Global markets rallied on renewed hopes that Europe will succeed in improving its bailout plan. In Asia, the Nikkei jumped 1.6% to 8287, the Kospi rallied 2.2%, and Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 1.9%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 2% to 18037, while the Shanghai Composite lagged the region, edging up a mere .1%.
European markets soared, with the CAC40 leading the advance, gaining 5.5% to 3013. The DAX jumped 4.6% and the FTSE advanced 2.9%. The Stoxx European banking index posted gains of 5.7%, as financials bounced strongly.
The rally continued in the US, with the Dow gaining 291 points to 11523. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both snapped a 7-day losing streak, climbing 3.5% and 2.9% respectively.
Retailers reported record sales of $52.4 billion over the Thanksgiving weekend, 16% higher than last year’s figures.
Treasuries and Commodities
Bonds posted marginal losses, despite the spike in equities. 10-year notes edged down 2/32 to yield 1.97%, and 30-year notes eased 6/32 to yield 2.93%.
Commodities rallied as a whole, but natural gas tumbled 5% to 3.364 as the December contract expired. Oil rose 1% to 97.76, and gasoline advanced 2.7% to 2.515.
Natural Gas Tumbles 5%
Silver once again led metals higher, climbing 3.3% to 32.03. Copper rose 2.3% to 3.3465, and gold gained 1.5% to 1710.70.
Currencies
The US Dollar declined as a spike in optimism encouraged risk taking, but settled well of its lows. The Australian Dollar soared 1.9% to .9898 after trading as high as .9976, and the Canadian Dollar jumped 1.1% to 1.0354. The Euro gained .6% to 1.3312, the Swiss Franc rose .8% to 1.0834, and the British Pound closed up .4% to 1.5505. The Japanese Yen declined .3% to 77.95, bucking the trend.
Economic Outlook
New home sales rose by 4000 to 307K, but were below expectations of 313K.
Tuesday’s economic calendar will include both the Case-Shiller home price index, and the FHFA home price index, as well as consumer confidence.
Earnings are due from Omnivision and Tiffany.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Binary Option Analysis – Equities Continue to Rise on European Bailout Hopes
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To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Asian markets rallied, encouraged by a strong rally in Western shares on Monday. The Nikkei soared 2.3% to 8488, the Kospi advanced 2.3%, and the ASX gained 1.1%. Both the Hang Seg and the Shanghai Composite rose 1.2%.
In Europe, markets rose moderately, lifted by a jump in consumer confidence in the US. The DAX gained 1% to 5800, while the CAC40 and FTSE closed up .5%. Policymakers approved a $10.7 billion bailout payment to Greece in an effort to slow the spiraling debt crisis.
Back in the US, the major indexes closed mixed, as the Nasdaq skidded .5%, while the Dow gained 33 points to 11556 and the S&P 500 rose .2%.
Nasdaq Closes Down .5% Continuing the Recent Slide
American Airlines parent, AMR, filed for bankruptcy, sending shares plunging 84% to .26. The company cited high labor costs and rising fuel prices as causes for the company’s cash shortage.
Tiffany shares slumped 8.7% after issuing a weaker outlook than hoped.
Treasuries and Commodities
An auction of Italian bonds had record high yields, with 10-year notes yielding 7.56%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.34. The high yields highlight the mounting debt concerns facing the region, but the ability to cover the auction indicates investors have not reached a state of panic.
US bonds slipped, with 10-year notes down 7/32 to yield 2.00%, and 30-year notes dropped 25/32 to yield 2.97%.
Energy gained, with crude oil up 1.6% to 99.80, and natural gas up 2.9% to 3.626.
Metals traded mixed as gold rose .4% to 1717.30, and copper rallied 1% to 3.394, while silver dropped 1% to 31.853.
Wheat jumped 3.9%, and corn gained 1.2% as agricultural futures traded mostly higher.
Currencies
The Australian Dollar soared for a second day, jumping 1.2% to 1.0026 as investors slowly recovered their risk appetite. The Pound gained .7% to 1.5609, and the Euro inched up .1% to 1.3328. The Canadian Dollar rose .4% to 1.0302, and the Swiss Franc settled up .3% at 1.0872.
Economic Outlook
Tuesday’s economic data was a mixed bag. Consumer confidence soared to 56 from 40.9, blowing past analyst forecasts. The Case-Shiller home price index dropped 3.6%, more than expected, but the FHFA house price index rose .9%, painting a mixed picture of the housing market.
Wednesday’s busy economic calendar will include the ADP employment report, the Challenger job-cut report, Chicago PMI, pending home sales, Beige Book, and weekly oil inventories.
Earnings are due from Aeropostale, American Eagle Outfitters, Guess and Krispy Kreme Donuts.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Binary Options – Central Banks Unite to Boost Liquidity, Western Markets Soar
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To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
China’s Shanghai Composite tumbled 3.3% due to growing concerns the country’s growth with slow, and the Hang Seng fell 1.5% to 17989. China’s central bank cut reserve requirements for the first time in nearly 3 years in an effort to keep the economy on track. In Japan, the Nikkei slipped .5% to 8435, while Olympus shares recovered from a sharp 10% loss at the open after the company affirmed it would release its December earnings report on time. Korea’s Kospi declined .5%, but Australia’s ASX managed to buck the trend, closing up .3%.
A coordinated move by global central banks to increase liquidity sent Western markets sharply higher. The DAX spiked 5%, the CAC40 soared 4.2% and the FTSE climbed 3.2%. Miners jumped 6% amid hopes the easing efforts will boost demand for raw materials.
In the US, a similar scene played out, as the Dow soared 485 points to 12041, the Nasdaq climbed 4.2%, and the S&P 500 rallied 4.3%. Caterpillar shares surged 8.1%.
Dow Soars Nearly 500 Points
Netflix shares slumped 4.5% after the company was downgraded to sell from neutral by Wedbush Securities.
Treasuries and Commodities
Bonds tumbled as investors poured into equities. 10-year notes dropped 25/32 to yield 2.08%, and 30-year notes sank 2 4/32 to yield 3.06%.
Copper soared 5.5% to 3.5755, leading metals higher. Gold rose 1.9% to 1751.70, and silver gained 3% to 32.915.
Energy ended mixed, as crude rose .62 to 100.41 despite a sharp jump in oil inventories, while natural gas fell 1.8% to 3.568.
Coffee jumped 4.1%, while cotton dropped 2%, as agricultural futures settled mixed.
Currencies
The Australian Dollar surged 2.4% to 1.0284 as the recent rally accelerated. The Canadian Dollar jumped 1% to 1.0198, and the Euro gained .8% to 1.3436. The Pound rose .5% to 1.5695, while the Yen declined .5% to 77.55.
Economic Outlook
Wednesday’s reports were exceedingly upbeat. Data from the ADP employment report blew past forecasts, with the economy adding 206K jobs last month, up from 130K in the previous report. Chicago PMI rose to 62.6 from 58.4, well above estimates, and the Challenger job-cut report showed planned layoffs declined by 12.8%.
Thursday’s economic reports will include weekly jobless claims, the ISM manufacturing index, construction spending, auto sales, and chain store sales.
Earnings are due from Barnes & Noble, H &R Block, Kroger, Movado and Talbots.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Binary Options Analysis – US Stocks Consolidate after Wednesday’s Rally
To read the Weekly technical report click here
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Asian markets opened sharply higher on Thursday in response to the announced cooperative central bank liquidity effort. The Hang Seng soared 5.6%, climbing 1013 point to 19002, leading the region. The Shanghai Composite rose 2.3%, the ASX 200 gained 2.6%, and the Nikkei advanced 1.9%. In Korea, the Kospi rallied 3.7% as Samsung Electronics surged 7% to a new record closing high.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index Surges 5.6%
In Europe, the major indexes closed lower after Wednesday’s sharp rise. The DAX fell .9%, the CAC40 dropped .8%, and the FTSE slipped .3%, as investors locked in gains from the previous session.
US stocks closed mixed after a choppy session, with the Nasdaq gaining .2%, while the Dow and S&P 500 declined .2%.
GM, Ford, and Toyota all reported a rise in sales for November, yet all 3 companies closed lower.
In earnings news, Barnes & Noble tumbled 16.3% after reporting an unexpected loss, and Lululemon Athletica sank 5.1% after reporting a drop in same-store sales.
Treasuries and Commodities
US bonds ended modestly lower, with 10-year notes down 7/32 to yield 2.09%, and 30-year notes down 23/32 to yield 3.09%. German bonds soared, with 10-year notes up .90, and 30-year notes gaining 2.53.
Commodities closed mixed with no clear market direction. Crude oil fell .4% to 99.97, while natural gas rallied 2.7% to 3.645 as the recent volatility continued.
Copper dropped 1% to 3.539, while silver ticked up .2% and gold settled flat.
Currencies
The currency market ended mixed after Wednesday’s steep dollar selloff. The Euro edged up .2% to 1.3459, and the Canadian Dollar advanced .5% to 1.0142. The Australian Dollar slipped .4% to 1.0226, and the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen both declined by .2%.
Economic Outlook
Weekly unemployment claims unexpectedly rose to 402K from last week’s 396K reading. ISM manufacturing PMI was slightly better than expected at 52.7 vs. 51.6, and monthly auto sales rose to 13.6M from 13.3M last month.
Friday’s focal report will be the non-farm payroll report. Analysts are expecting a gain of 126K jobs, after last months gain of 80K. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 9.0%.
Earnings are due from Big Lots and Shanda Interactive.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Binary Options Daily Analysis – Equities Close Mostly Lower on Debt Jitters
To read the Weekly technical report click here
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Asian markets slumped in response to a warning by S&P that it was placing 15 euro zone nations on credit watch for a possible downgrade. The Nikkei declined 1.4% to 8575, but Olympus shares jumped more than 9% amid expectations the stock will recover from its scandal induced losses. In Australia, the ASX 200 shed 1.5%., despite a .25% rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Kospi fell 1%, the Hang Seng dropped 1.2%, and the Shanghai Composite eased .3%.
European markets traded mostly lower, as the DAX sank 1.3%, the CAC40 lost .7%, and the FTSE closed flat. German retail chain, Metro, plunged 14% on a weak outlook, pulling down the retail sector by 2.1%.
Germany's DAX Sinks 1.3%
US stocks ended mixed, as the Dow climbed 52 points to 12150, the S&P 500 inched up .1%, and the Nasdaq fell .2%.
Toll Brothers rallied 2.7% on home sales that beat estimates. Darden Restaurants tumbled 12.4% after cutting its outlook.
Treasuries and Commodities
Bonds declined, with 10-year notes slipping 10/32 to yield 2.08%, and 30-year notes down 1 3/32 to yield 3.08%.
Energy rose, led by gasoline futures, which advanced 1.1% to 2.6414. Natural gas gained .7%, and crude oil edged up .1% to 101.07.
Silver rallied 1.7% to 32.92, and gold ticked .1% to 1736.10, while copper declined .5% to 3.597.
Currencies
The Canadian Dollar rose .7% to 1.0098, lifted by solid Ivey PMI data, while the Dollar was firm against other currencies. The Euro ended flat at 1.3398, the Pound slipped .3% to 1.5595, and the Australian Dollar declined .2%. The Swiss Franc dropped .6% to 1.0794, while the Yen inched up .1% to 77.74.
Economic Outlook
The news continues to be dominated by the Euro debt crisis, and the focus is now on the proposed stability fund changes, due to be discussed at the EU summit later this week. It remains to be seen if the officials have the will to tackle the enormity of the debt problem.
Wednesday’s reports will include consumer credit, weekly oil inventories, and weekly mortgage applications.
Earnings are due from Pacific Sunwear, and Vail Resorts.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher
Binary Options Daily Analysis – Rumors of $600 Billion IMF Loan Boost US Markets
To read the Weekly technical report click here
To read the Weekly fundamental analysis click here
Equities
Asian markets were lifted by a report by the Financial Times that European leaders were trying to strengthen the region’s bailout fund. The Nikkei jumped 1.7% to 8722, the Kospi gained .9%, and the ASX 200 rose .7%. The Hang Seng rallied 1.6% while China’s Shanghai Composite rose .3%, snapping a 3-day losing streak.
Meanwhile, European markets posted moderate losses, surrendering earlier gains. The DAX fell .6%, the FTSE slipped .4%, and the CAC40 eased .1%. S&P has threatened to cut the credit rating on the ESFS bailout fund, and the threat may help force European leaders to agree to a deal at Friday’s summit.
US stocks closed mostly higher. The Dow gained 46 points to 12196, the S&P 500 rose .2%, while the Nasdaq ended flat.
Stocks Rally on IMF Loan Rumor
Rumors circulated that the G20 is considering a $600 billion loan to the IMF to help Europe, but the IMF denied the claim.
Energy stocks fell after a bearish oil report showed an unexpected rise in oil inventories. Halliburton shares slumped more than 6%, and Peabody Energy fell 3.4%.
In retail news, Talbots shares soared nearly 70% after a private equity firm offered to buy the firm. Men’s Wearhouse surged 19.6% after blowing past earning estimates.
Treasuries and Commodities
US bonds gained as the threat of European credit rating cuts lifted the appeal of safe haven treasuries. 10-year notes advanced 17/32 to yield 2.03%, and 30-year notes climbed 22/32 to yield 3.06%.
Crude oil closed down .6% to 100.70, but was well of its low of 99.67. Gasoline futures slumped 2.2%, and natural gas declined 1.7%.
Gold rose 14.20 to 1746, while silver dropped .5%, and copper fell .6% to 3.554.
Agricultural futures sank, as sugar lost 4.7% and wheat fell 2%.
Currencies
The Dollar traded mixed as the market prepared for the upcoming EU summit. The Pound rallied .7% to 1.5707, and the Australian Dollar gained .4% to 1.0286. The Euro, Canadian Dollar and Yen all closed little changed. The Swiss Franc slipped .2% to 1.0827.
Economic Outlook
Consumer credit increased to $2.457 trillion, slightly more than expected. Weekly mortgage applications also increased, thanks to a recovering economy and low interest rates.
On Thursday, the ECB and Bank of England are scheduled to release their rate statements. Both are expected to leave rates unchanged. Also due are weekly jobless claims and wholesale trade.
Earnings are due from Costco and Smithfield Foods.
Binary Options Trading analysis written by Bradley Welcher