InstaForex Wave Analysis - page 186
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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 21, 2014
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The GBP/CHF pair has bounced off the 1.5000 levels as expected and reached initial resistance at 1.5200/50 as seen here. The pair is expected to pullback towards 1.5100 and further rally towards 1.5320/30 at least. Immediate support is seen at 1.4975, followed by 1.4750/60 and lower, while resistance is at 1.5320/30, followed by 1.5450, 1.5550 respectively. It is recommended to to book profits on long positions taken earlier, and again enter at 1.5100; risk remains at 1.4950. The structure indicates that a top might be in place at 1.5550 and that bears should remain in control till prices remain lower than 1.5500/50. The current rally could just be a counter trend.
Trading recommendations:
Book profits on long positions. Again enter buying around 1.5100 levels, stop is below 1.4950, target is 1.5320.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 22, 2014
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD is now experiencing a pullback in the context of
an uptrend. The pullback may offer another opportunity to go long;
unless the price goes below the support line at 1.2700, which would
put the bullish outlook in jeopardy. With the continuation of the
bullish trend, the price could reach the resistance line at 1.2800
again.
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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 23, 2014
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The GBP/CHF has managed to hit 1.5320/30 levels as expected and discussed yesterday. Please note that it is also the fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the decline from 1.5550 and 1.4975 earlier. It is recommended to initiate short positions now, risk remains above 1.5450 at least. Resistance is seen at 1.5450, followed by 1.5550 while support is seen at 1.5200, followed by 1.5100, 1.4975 and lower respectively. It looks like bears could resume the down move from current levels and eventually extend it towards 1.4975 and lower. The pair might have formed a meaningful top at 1.5550 levels and could remain lower for a while.
Trading recommendations:
Remain short from current levels, stop above 1.5450, target is open.
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Technical analysis on EUR/USD for October 24, 2014
The greenback is supported by the strong US weekly jobless claims numbers. On Wednesday's session the pair was falling below the ascending symmetric triangle, closed below that and 20dsma as well. In yesterday's session, the pair was rejected at the 20Dsma level. The initial resistance level was at 1.2689 levels. Until the pair closes above 1.2690, sell on every rise. In the h4 chart, the prices are facing a strong resistance level at 12DEMA. On the downside, the pair has support at 1.2625, below this, 1.2606, 1.2584 and 1.2578 are open targets. The selling pressure will increase below 1.2578 (the 80.0 fib level) towards the previous lows at 1.2500 which are strong support and key trend decider levels. On the other side, 1.2676, above 1.2686, 1.2710 and 1.2740 are strong resistance levels. We recommend fresh selling below 1.2625 or wait for an upswing to start selling at 1.2740 levels.
Trade- Selling below 1.2625
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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for October 27-31, 2014
Overview:
The EUR/USD pair in the long term.
The pair called for a bearish market from the level of 1.2839 and closed at 1.2669 last week. So, the price of the EUR/USD pair is going to continue the bearish trend from the level of 1.2707. It also should be noted that the pivot point is set at the same price of 1.2707 for October 27-31, 2014. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to sell below 1. 2707 with the first target of 1.2613 to test a minor support at this price. Moreover, the double bottom will set at the 1.2613 level. Also, it will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.2575 in order to test the weekly support 1.
At the same time, the stop loss should be placed above the weekly pivot point at the price of 1.2730. Equally important, the resistance will set at the 1.2727 level (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Additionally, it should be noted that the range today will be about 74 pips.
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Technical analysis of Gold for October 29, 2014
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The 4H chart view presented here indicates that Gold could still dip towards $1,210.00 levels before resuming rally. As seen here, the $1,210.00 level is fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between $1183 and $1,255.00. Furthermore it is also the extension of the drop from $1,255.00 to $1,225.00/26.00 levels. Support is seen at $1,205.00, followed by $1,183.00, while resistance is seen at $1,255.00 (interim), followed by $1,275.00 and higher respectively. It is recommended to look to enter buying around $1,210.00 levels as a safe trading strategy. On the flip side, the metal is expected to face resistance around $1,240.00 levels, if a rally is materialized from current levels. An aggressive trade strategy cold be to initiate short positions there. ($1,240.00).
Trading recommendations:
Short around $1,240.00 if the metal rallies from current levels, set stop above $1,255.00, target is $1,210.00. OR Initiate long positions after a dip at $1,210.00 levels.
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Forecast and trading recommendations on EUR/JPY for Octoebr 30, 2014
The cross is trading at 3-week high. The cross managed to breach the 20Wsma, but was unable to sustain above that. In the daily chart, we can see the minor double top at 137.75 levels on a closing basis. On a monthly closing basis, the pair must close above 138.48 levels. In case, if the cross closes below 138.48 we can clearly see the double top formation in the monthly charts representing a downward move towards 135.45 levels. In case, if the cross manages to close above 138.48 the pair can extend its upswing towards 139.40 and 139.90 levels. Including today, we have 1 more trading session left in the current month. In the longer term picture we can see the 131.40 and 129.0 breaks, below this, another steep correction towards 2013 February and March lows. In the current month, the cross erased the 3/4th of its losses. We will re-analyze the chart in case if the pair closes above 138.48 on a monthly closing basis. The Euro is weaker than the Yen.
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Technical analysis of Gold for November 03, 2014
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Gold dropped to $1,160.00 levels taking out long positions yet again. A weekly chat view has been presented here for a larger trend view. A support trend line connecting the 2004/05 and 2008/09 lows is passing through the $1,150.00/$1,160.00 levels. The fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between $680.00 and $1,900.00 is also passing through the $1,154.00 levels as depicted here. Furthermore, a past resistance turned support is also converging at the same levels. With all the above views, probabilities are high that the metal should bottom out between $1,150.00 and $1,160.00 levels. A bullish reversal signal should be watched for on the daily chart before confirming the same.
Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Signal confirmation is required between $1,150.00 and $1,160.00 levels.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 04, 2014
In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI and the US will release some economic data such as Trade Balance, Factory Orders m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Congressional Elections. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 114.24.
Resistance. 2: 114.02.
Resistance. 1: 113.79.
Support. 1: 113.52.
Support. 2: 113.30.
Support. 3: 113.07.
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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 05, 2014
This week's major event is the Thursday ECB press conference. This time we are not expecting further easing in the EU. In this case the euro will recover against USD and JPY. Today traders eye the BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes. The EUR/JPY cross has been trading on a highly bullish note for 4 weeks. The cross has parallel resistance between 143.44 and 143.78. In the weekly and monthly charts the cross gave an upside breakout. We can expect strong momentum only above 143.78 levels. As of now, today the cross made a high at 142.79 levels. After a huge spike, the prices are corrected well and again are moving higher. We expect the prices to move towards 143.40 and 143.50 levels. We recommend fresh intraday buying only above 142.79 levels. The intraday support exists at 142.20, below this, 141.70 levels. We recommend safe selling below 141.70 for targets at 139.75 levels. Risky traders can sell below 141.90 levels.
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