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is it statistically proven -- i.e. success % -- what is the daily movement required , say in the last 15 days, all the daily range of each day
There is no required number, but it is about the entry point which is obviously to be determined roughly close for profit in any market. What can be helpful is a combination of range, momentum and volatility in one index number to determine the point of entry more closer to success. That index could really be more real than the lag of most others.
Example you have a price range for the last 15 days, than you add the momentum and volatility plus the real time current range minus the 15 day range. That gives you a good idea. I think it could be that a combination of ATR, Momentum and Volatility could be helpful formula, plus the whatever how many days of daily range.
Maybe the best time to trade this system is between 12 Noon (EST) and Midnight (EST). The market is usually range bound during this time and the odds of getting caught in a big trend is small.
Yeah it is an idea to try. Still I run 24 hours and besides the DD is 30% with the Yen in the game, the equity side increases. So it is a matter of time to wait that either the Yen comes under pressure or the other currencies make up the DD for now. So the strategy is to hold on for now and make some money the other side!
Yeah it is an idea to try. Still I run 24 hours and besides the DD is 30% with the Yen in the game, the equity side increases. So it is a matter of time to wait that either the Yen comes under pressure or the other currencies make up the DD for now. So the strategy is to hold on for now and make some money the other side!
Jo,
A suggestion: It might be a good idea to turn off the EA at 7:30 a.m. (EST) on the days when news comes out at 8:30p.m. (EST).
If you get into a trade with less than an hour before the news comes out, there is a good chance that you will not be able to exit the trade before the news comes out at 8:30 a.m. (EST).
If you are still in the trade and the news comes out against you, you could go for a big ride the wrong way!
I turn the EA off at 7:30 a.m. (EST) on the days when there is 8:30 a.m. news and then I put the EA back on right after the news comes out.
Just a suggestion.
Good Luck JoForex.
Jo,
A suggestion: It might be a good idea to turn off the EA at 7:30 a.m. (EST) on the days when news comes out at 8:30p.m. (EST).
If you get into a trade with less than an hour before the news comes out, there is a good chance that you will not be able to exit the trade before the news comes out at 8:30 a.m. (EST).
If you are still in the trade and the news comes out against you, you could go for a big ride the wrong way!
I turn the EA off at 7:30 a.m. (EST) on the days when there is 8:30 a.m. news and then I put the EA back on right after the news comes out.
Just a suggestion.
Good Luck JoForex.I do like that which is entirely true statment the nes trader is something else or animal. However I did some settings on the EURUSD 1 minute with 1,22,18 and watch how nice it seems to take the points of entry. I have not programmed yet for any spike entry. Today maybe I get it done. also it looks on 15 minute or five minute same setting with 35TP, 75SL long term that makes money without huge DD.
I do like that which is entirely true statment the nes trader is something else or animal. However I did some settings on the EURUSD 1 minute with 1,22,18 and watch how nice it seems to take the points of entry. I have not programmed yet for any spike entry. Today maybe I get it done. also it looks on 15 minute or five minute same setting with 35TP, 75SL long term that makes money without huge DD.
Jo,
Let me ask you a question.
Let's say the EA initiates a position and as the position goes against you the EA adds to the position.
How does the EA take you out of a trade that is going against you or does it?
Does the EA wait for an opposite signal to take you out of a losing position or does it just keep you in the losing position with the hope that the position comes back to profit?
Thanks for clearing this up.
Jo,
Let me ask you a question.
Let's say the EA initiates a position and as the position goes against you the EA adds to the position.
How does the EA take you out of a trade that is going against you or does it?
Does the EA wait for an opposite signal to take you out of a losing position or does it just keep you in the losing position with the hope that the position comes back to profit?
Thanks for clearing this up.You can use the stop or break even feature to get out at a loss! Otherwise it does scale in over and over until a cycle is over. So you have to check the currencies whichever is choppy is the best to let the EA work in. There is many other things before this can really said that a proven concept exists.
However, if you play with it and perhaps you be able to write some MQL to it we really would appreciate the input.
I added a real position in USDJPY which was or is trending strongly what happens is it piles up. That is the reason why you need to play very small increments in all of your positions that your margin call don't blow the account. Eventually the currency comes back. I don't think there is anything in the world out there that can pick perfect points of entry all the time. The only money printers out there is the Federal Reserve. They let the money print on our behalf which is free to them.
You can use the stop or break even feature to get out at a loss! Otherwise it does scale in over and over until a cycle is over. So you have to check the currencies whichever is choppy is the best to let the EA work in. There is many other things before this can really said that a proven concept exists.
However, if you play with it and perhaps you be able to write some MQL to it we really would appreciate the input.
I added a real position in USDJPY which was or is trending strongly what happens is it piles up. That is the reason why you need to play very small increments in all of your positions that your margin call don't blow the account. Eventually the currency comes back. I don't think there is anything in the world out there that can pick perfect points of entry all the time. The only money printers out there is the Federal Reserve. They let the money print on our behalf which is free to them.I think that you are right when you say that the best way to trade this system is to trade it when the market is ranging.
I have a bunch of indicators and methods that would tell, at the time of the cycleidentifier signal, if the market is ranging or strongly trending.
Perhaps if I can find a good one that works someone will be able to write it into the EA.
I will study this problem this weekend and decide which method works best for identifying ranging markets.
I'll keep you posted over the weekend.
I think that you are right when you say that the best way to trade this system is to trade it when the market is ranging.
I have a bunch of indicators and methods that would tell, at the time of the cycleidentifier signal, if the market is ranging or strongly trending.
Perhaps if I can find a good one that works someone will be able to write it into the EA.
I will study this problem this weekend and decide which method works best for identifying ranging markets.
I'll keep you posted over the weekend.Sounds a good plan I do have a punch of indicators but don't wanna make it so messy. I believe one strength indicator and a LWMA may do the trick to support a signal off the cyclops.
Maybe I will try to write the indicator Momentum, Volatility and True Range minus daily range average could be helpful.
However I try to play with the break even trigger , trailing stop trigger and trailing stop. I think that I would prefer of SL.
Have a good weekend.
oke -- I can estimate MOMENTUM by length of candle and market micro-volatility within 30M bar
How do you measure MOMENTUM -- as this is my favorite research topic -- and I have NO WAY to find a PROPER WAY to define it quantitatively or by any indicator
There is no required number, but it is about the entry point which is obviously to be determined roughly close for profit in any market. What can be helpful is a combination of range, momentum and volatility in one index number to determine the point of entry more closer to success. That index could really be more real than the lag of most others. Example you have a price range for the last 15 days, than you add the momentum and volatility plus the real time current range minus the 15 day range. That gives you a good idea. I think it could be that a combination of ATR, Momentum and Volatility could be helpful formula, plus the whatever how many days of daily range.
!
oke -- I can estimate MOMENTUM by length of candle and market micro-volatility within 30M bar How do you measure MOMENTUM -- as this is my favorite research topic -- and I have NO WAY to find a PROPER WAY to define it quantitatively or by any indicator
You can as an example take the time of several candle move divided by price, plus you need to have something confirming it. You need time in the picture because that is the moment in that we are in. Also there is a need of the moments range of price supported and if this is volume driven. We can not rely on a daily trading on range prices from yesterday which are important to use, but considering that yesterday price or the day before and so on that is not helping in the moment. Time moves the moment!
You can look up charts and if you go ahead and segment time periods look at the range of price you will see a trigger of momentum. But that is old! Moments do have one thing in common they repeat in other levels. So you need to break down a price for the ranges moments, take this segmented pieces and over a period of time they repeated over and over again that you have a predictable moment forward calculation! So you need to mirror these segment of moment in time to get to a real moment that predicts the future! You lay out pieces of moments that are piled over and over themselves that is the confirmation of moment that you can predict with propability!
But usually momentum indicators are not build to be in the moment! They are just lagging, calculating numbers from yesterday. I think to be in the moment you need to know what that moment price move is. So if we move like a snail y type price with a small range of price change there can't be momentum! Confirm with range of the day and the average of days back may help to come up with an indicator that is real moment. So to speak you need to measure a price move in time! If that moves repeat in seconds and seem to be the same than you have something you can build moment prediction.
If you go ahead and nano program this, it can learn from the past which the probability of the moment comes in play like a Baby learning to walk, than you have a real indicator with real moves predicted. It is just segments of numbers that repeat themselves over and over again. The price maybe different! The range is not, the time is!
If I have in a period of 240 hours prices move in a certain time , in a certain range and a certain direction than I have a fundamental moment calculation on hand! You pile this over itself than you have a pretty good example what happened and the probability of momentum increases. I can calculate 240 hours of range numbers lay it over it and sort how many times the moment was up in time and range than I use this and predict the next moment move.